strengthening resilience and enabling sustainable ... · and enabling sustainable development ....

39
1 Toshio Koike Director, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo Council Member, Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Cabinet Office of Japan Chair, Japan National Committee on Earth Observation, MEXT Chair, River Council of Japan, MLIT Orientation Seminar on Climate Change Adaptation in the Pilot Case of Solo River Basin Introduction of IFI Platform and Climate Change Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable Development under Climate Change Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate

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Page 1: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

1

Toshio KoikeDirector, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)

Professor Emeritus, the University of TokyoCouncil Member, Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Cabinet Office of Japan

Chair, Japan National Committee on Earth Observation, MEXT Chair, River Council of Japan, MLIT

Orientation Seminar on Climate Change Adaptationin the Pilot Case of Solo River Basin

Introduction of IFI Platform and Climate Change

Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable Development

under Climate Change

Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate

Page 2: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

drought

flood

cyclone

Number of Events Worldwide 1980-2018

Overall Losses for Natural Loss Events Worldwide 1980-2018

Water-related Disasters

Page 3: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

3

1980-19952000-2015

Geographical Overview of Water-related Disasters

Page 4: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Monsoon

global

RCP2.6, RCP4.5, PCP6.0, RCP8.5

RCP2.6, RCP4.5, PCP6.0, RCP8.5 CDD: consective dry daysNot Big Change

of Droughtsv

R5d: seasonal maximum 5-day precipitation totalLarge Flood(flood early warning)

IPCC/AR5 (2014)

Psd: standard deviation of inter-annual variability in seasonal average precipitationWet-Dry Contrast

(water storage)

v

v

Page 5: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

As the climate system changes, heavy rainfall events increase.

Correct or Incorrect?

Page 6: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought
Page 7: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Radiation

Radiative Cooling

Surface HeatingUpward IR Radiation

Stefan-Boltzmann Law: Material emits radiativeenergy with the forth power of the surface temperature.

cloud

Downward IR Radiation

Page 8: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

warm wet

Page 9: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Warm Air - Cool Air and Dry Air - Wet Air

warmcool drywet

Regardless of kinds of gases, a same number of molecules isincluded in a certain volume of gasunder a certain temperature andpressure.

Dry air consists of nitrogen (MW=28)and oxygen (MW=16). The ratio is 4 to 1. Average MW=28.8In wet air, a certain number ofmolecules of nitrogen and oxygen arereplaced with the same number ofwater molecules of water (MW=18)

28.8

28.8

28.8

28.8 28.8

perfectly dry air

28.8

18.0

28.8

28.8 28.8

a little bit wet air

28.8

18.0

18.0

28.8 18.0

very wet air

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Which is Heavier?

Page 10: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

warm wet

Page 11: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Page 12: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

As the climate system changes, heavy rainfall events increase.

Correct or Incorrect?

Page 13: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.

IPCC/AR4 (2007)

Is the climate changing?

Page 14: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.

IPCC/AR5 (2013)

Is the climate changing?

Page 15: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

What does change the climate?Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. (IPCC/AR4、2007)

Page 16: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. (IPCC/AR5, 2014)

What does change the climate?

Page 17: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

As the climate system changes, heavy rainfall events increase.

Correct or Incorrect?

Page 18: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

C02 increase

long-wave radiation

convection

sunshine

subsidence dry subsidence dryHeavy Rainfall

radiation(green house effect)

--- convection equilibrium

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Temperature Saturated Water Vapor Pressure Cloud Formation

18

Total Precipitation

Page 19: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

2XCo2

CO2

Heavier Rainfall in Smaller Area

Impacts of CO2 Increaseon the Water Cycle

Predicted by Models

Bigger Annual Variationof the Summer Rainfall in India

Heavy Rainfall around Japan(CCSR-NIES-JAMSTEC)

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Page 20: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Chabge in water-related extremesAR4(2007), SREX(2010), AR5(2013)

Page 21: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

As the climate system changes, heavy rainfall events increase.

Correct or Incorrect?

Roles of Science and Technology in Adaptation to the Change?

Page 22: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Concerted Actions are Required

SustainabilityResilience InclusivenessParticipatory

Three Key Global Agendas Agreed in 2015

Mar

ch 2

015 Sendai

Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction

Sept

embe

r 201

5 Sustainable Development Goals

Dec

embe

r 201

5 Paris Agreement(COP 21)

Page 23: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Concerted Actions are Required

SustainabilityResilience InclusivenessParticipatory

Three Key Global Agendas Agreed in 2015

Mar

ch 2

015 Sendai

Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction

Sept

embe

r 201

5 Sustainable Development Goals

Dec

embe

r 201

5 Paris Agreement(COP 21)

Page 24: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Strengthening Disaster Resilience

preparedness

Society Function

evacuation

response

recovery

Observation & Simulation

Monitoring & Prediction

Climate Change

Community

Mutual Support Self-Help

Virtual Reality

Training/ Exercise

Public Support

Non-structural

Operation & Management Disaster

Risk

RiskReduction

24

Build Back Better

Early WarningClimate ChangeImpact AssessmentExperiencing Disasters

Page 25: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Concerted Actions are Required

SustainabilityResilience InclusivenessParticipatory

Three Key Global Agendas Agreed in 2015

Mar

ch 2

015 Sendai

Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction

Sept

embe

r 201

5 Sustainable Development Goals

Dec

embe

r 201

5 Paris Agreement(COP 21)

Page 26: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

26

Enabling Sustainable Development

Page 27: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Concerted Actions are Required

SustainabilityResilience InclusivenessParticipatory

Three Key Global Agendas Agreed in 2015

Mar

ch 2

015 Sendai

Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction

Sept

embe

r 201

5 Sustainable Development Goals

Dec

embe

r 201

5 Paris Agreement(COP 21)

Page 28: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

issuesstake-holder

stake-holder

stake-holder

stake-holder

stake-holder

Sharing Data and InformationExchanging Knowledge, Experiences and Ideas

Working Together

Climate Change Water, Food

Energy, HealthBiodiversity

Citizen

RiverManager Energy

FarmersPolicyMaker

HydrologyClimatologyEngineering

AgricultureEcology

RSGIS IT

trans-disciplinaryinter-disciplinary

Page 29: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

QuantifyingUncertainty

Climate Model

Outputs

Down-scaling

Water simulation,

prediction & management

systemflood

irrigation

drought

hydro power

Environment

Socio-economics

Culture & history

Regimeshift

Impact assessm

ent

Early warning

Allocation policy

Land use

Adaptation options

Innovative technology- Flood control

- quality control

Decision m

aking

Monitoring evaluation

Implem

entation

IntegratedObserved Data Sets

Scientific Approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical Approach

29

End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation

BiasCorrection

ClimatologyCheck

Extremeevents

water supply

ground water

water qualityUrban sewage

Page 30: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

QuantifyingUncertainty

Climate Model

Outputs

Down-scaling

Water simulation,

prediction & management

systemflood

irrigation

drought

hydro power

Environment

Socio-economics

Culture & history

Regimeshift

Impact assessm

ent

Early warning

Allocation policy

Land use

Adaptation options

Innovative technology- Flood control

- quality control

Decision m

aking

Monitoring evaluation

Implem

entation

IntegratedObserved Data Sets

Scientific Approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical Approach

30

End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation

BiasCorrection

ClimatologyCheck

Extremeevents

water supply

ground water

water qualityUrban sewage

Page 31: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

QuantifyingUncertainty

Climate Model

Outputs

Down-scaling

Water simulation,

prediction & management

systemflood

irrigation

drought

hydro power

Environment

Socio-economics

Culture & history

Regimeshift

Impact assessm

ent

Early warning

Allocation policy

Land use

Adaptation options

Innovative technology- Flood control

- quality control

Decision m

aking

Monitoring evaluation

Implem

entation

IntegratedObserved Data Sets

Scientific Approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical Approach

31

End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation

BiasCorrection

ClimatologyCheck

Extremeevents

water supply

ground water

water qualityUrban sewage

Page 32: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

QuantifyingUncertainty

Climate Model

Outputs

Down-scaling

Water simulation,

prediction & management

systemflood

irrigation

drought

hydro power

Environment

Socio-economics

Culture & history

Regimeshift

Impact assessm

ent

Early warning

Allocation policy

Land use

Adaptation options

Innovative technology- Flood control

- quality control

Decision m

aking

Monitoring evaluation

Implem

entation

IntegratedObserved Data Sets

Scientific Approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical Approach

32

End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation

BiasCorrection

ClimatologyCheck

Extremeevents

water supply

ground water

water qualityUrban sewage

Page 33: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Case study in Calumpit Municipality in Pampanga River Basin in the Philippines

1. Understand Current status

Interview Survey

Field Survey

2. Identify Risk(with National and Provincial govt.)

Flood Simulation by RRI Model

(Use of 5m IfSarDem data)

Resource Map Inundation Map(30 Years)

Inundation Probability Map Inundation Water Chart

3. Analyze Flood Impact

Workshop at Communities(July, 2015)

4. Develop Response Strategy at Communities

Workshop at Communities (Jan , 2016) Proposal of Strategy

5. Develop and 6. Share the Plan

Final Workshop at Municipality(Feb , 2016)

Example of Community Contingency Plan

33

Evidence-based Contingency Planning

Page 34: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

34

●Present management under present climate; ●Present management under future climate; ●+ 50% increase of fertilizer under future climate. ○Drought tolerant cultivar under future climate; ○Drought tolerant cultivar + 50% increase of fertilizer under future climate.

Effect of planting month on rice yield at Leumping (Rainfed ecotype)

Weather Data{Solar Radiation , Temp., Day length, Soil Moisture}

Soil Parameter{Soil Organic

Carbon}

fraction of transpirable soil water

Managements{Transplanting Date, Fertilizer Application Date, Fertilizer Application Rate}

N Pool

LAI Dry Matter

Developmental Index (DVI)

Yield

N uptake

N loss N mineralization

Developmental Rate

leaf area expansion

photosynthesis

water stress

plant N content

Harvest index

SIMRIW-rainfed(Homma and Horie, 2009)

water stress

January 1st to December 31st

under the present (1985-2000) and the future (2050-2065) climate conditions:.

Page 35: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Hydro-power and Flood RiskIncrease of power generation Actual: 378MCM Optimized: 437MCM +16%Increase of water level at the end of the flood season

Full PowerGeneration Based on 39hr Ensemble Flood Prediction

No Dam Release

1/3 Dam Release

Japan

Page 36: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

QuantifyingUncertainty

Climate Model

Outputs

Down-scaling

Water simulation,

prediction & management

systemflood

irrigation

drought

hydro power

Environment

Socio-economics

Culture & history

Regimeshift

Impact assessm

ent

Early warning

Allocation policy

Land use

Adaptation options

Innovative technology- Flood control

- quality control

Decision m

aking

Monitoring evaluation

Implem

entation

IntegratedObserved Data Sets

Scientific Approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical Approach

End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation

BiasCorrection

ClimatologyCheck

Extremeevents

water supply

ground water

water qualityUrban sewage

AR4: 40TB

AR5: 2.6PB

volume variety veracity velocity

Page 37: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

High Speed NetworkAnalysis Server

Extra-large volume data storage (30PB)

Base SystemICT Experts

Data Archive

Search / Download

Data ProcessingApplication Development

ICT Experts

Field Specialists R&D CommunityICT Experts

Field Specialists WaterDisaster

RiskReductionAgriculture

Urban

Economy

Biodiversity

Health Climate

Hydroelectric power

Social Implementation

Climate Change Adaptation

ASIAN Monsoon Year

International Contribution

DIAS/CEOSWater Portal

GEOSS/AWCI GEOSS/AfWCCI

Joint Research

S-8

CMIP5

GRENE-ei

DIAS-P

RECCA

Challenges to variety, volume, velocity and veracity.

Page 38: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

38

Let’s Build a Resilient and Sustainable Society under Climate Change

Page 39: Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable ... · and Enabling Sustainable Development . under Climate Change. Jabung Ring Dike System: Babat Barrage and Intlet Gate. drought

Toshio KoikeDirector, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)

Professor Emeritus, the University of TokyoCouncil Member, Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Cabinet Office of Japan

Chair, Japan National Committee on Earth Observation, MEXT Chair, River Council of Japan, MLIT

Orientation Seminar on Climate Change Adaptationin the Pilot Case of Solo River Basin

Introduction of IFI Platform and Climate Change

Strengthening Resilience and Enabling Sustainable Development

under Climate Change