streamlining immigration for skilled trades people from invitation to employment
TRANSCRIPT
Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
June 16, 2014
Carla Campbell-Ott, Executive Director, Petroleum HR Council (a division of Enform)
Streamlining Immigration for Skilled Trades People from Invitation to Employment
www.petrohrsc.ca
Table of Contents (Agenda)
• Introduction
– Overview of the Petroleum HR Council and its Labour Market Information (LMI) Products and Services
• Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry Labour Market Outlook to 2022: Key Findings and Analysis
– Employment Outlook
– Hiring Outlook
• Value-Added Analysis
– Provincial Analysis
– Full Employment Impacts of Industry Investments and Activities Over the Next Decade
• Recommended Workforce Solutions
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Petroleum HR Council — a division of Enform Canada
Effective April 1, 2013, the Petroleum HR Council became part of Enform:
• Shared core relationships with industry associations, leaders and enterprises, as well as with government organizations.
• Long-standing close relationship with Enform that supports and promotes the highest safety standards in Canada’s upstream oil and gas industry through innovative training, certifications, services and resources.
• The main programs and services of the Council will continue, primarily focusing on two key areas of priority: Labour Market Information and Careers in Oil and Gas.
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LMI Value to Oil and Gas Stakeholders
• Timely, relevant and credible LMI provides facts and insights into current and future labour and skill shortages within Canada’s oil and gas industry.
• With petroleum LMI, stakeholders can develop and implement effective workforce strategies to build a sustainable oil and gas workforce.
• Specifically, LMI helps:
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Our LMI Expertise
Labour Market Outlooks: Generate long-term employment and hiring projections using an industry-validated modelling system for:
– Canada’s oil and gas industry as a whole
– Key operating regions: BC, AB, SK and rest of Canada
– Petroleum industry sectors: exploration and production (E&P), oil sands, oil and gas services and pipeline transmission
– Core and “other” occupations
• Customized scenario outlooks can also be developed.
• Supply projections and labour demand-supply gap analysis available for total industry and by core occupation to help understand risks and opportunities.
HR Trends and Insights: Provide intelligence on current and short-term labour market conditions and HR trends within Canada’s oil and gas industry.
We produce the following LMI products.
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Canada’s Oil and Gas Labour Market Outlook to 2022: Key Findings and Analysis
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Business Trends Impacting Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
• Attraction of investment
– Oil sands, especially in situ
– Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
– Shale/conventional oil
– Hebron offshore project
• Joint ventures with Asian companies
– Longer-term view of development and learning opportunity
• Downside risks
– Single customer market (US)
– Lack of infrastructure to support market diversification
– Skill shortages
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Oil and Gas Industry Activity – Two Scenarios
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The Decade Ahead analyzes the labour market outlook for two potential industry activity scenarios based on a range of oil and gas prices, capital and operating expenditure, and oil sands production forecasts.
Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario
Market diversification does not occur and growth is driven by North American demand.
• Moderate increases to conventional oil, oil sands and liquids-rich natural gas activity
Market diversification occurs and Canadian producers supply international markets.
• Debottleneck and expansion of oil pipelines• Development of LNG export facilities and
pipelines
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Oil and Gas Industry Employment Outlook to 2022
In the Low Growth scenario, the industry adds just under 18,300 jobs, while in the Expansion scenario, the industry adds 38,700 jobs.
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2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
195,200
199,700
213,500(+9%)
233,900(+20%)
Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario
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Long-Term Hiring Outlook (2013 – 2022)Total recruitment activity over the next decade ranges between 125,000 and 150,000 to meet industry activity, age-related attrition and a 3 per cent non-retirement turnover.
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Trades Occupations in the Oil and Gas Industry
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TRADES OCCUPATIONS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY: PROJECTED INCREASES IN EMPLOYMENT TO 2022 – EXPANSION SCENARIO
OccupationEstimated
Employment 2014
Hiring Due to Industry Activity
to 2022
Percentage Growth to 2022
Total – Trades Occupations 45,035 7,110 16%
Power engineers (steam-ticket required) 5,720 2,170 38%
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 7,940 1,505 19%
Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers
13,225 1,095 8%
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 2,565 550 22%
Millwrights 4,595 495 11%
Welders 3,745 445 12%
Industrial electricians 2,180 380 17%
Steamfitters and pipefitters 2,745 245 9%
Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors
980 90 9%
Insulators 665 70 11%
Crane operators 680 60 9%
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Trades with Greatest Net Hiring Requirements to 2022
TOP TEN TRADES WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS* TO 2022 (# of job openings Low Growth – Expansion)
Industry Total (62,440 – 84,030 )
1 Power engineers (steam-ticket required) 2,945 – 4,105
2 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2,425 – 3,990
3 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related workers 2,945 – 3,985
4 Millwrights 1,310 – 1,770
5 Welders 1,085 – 1,475
6 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 905 – 1,385
7 Industrial electricians 770 – 1,085
8 Steamfitters and pipefitters 715 – 960
9 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors 275 – 360
10 Insulators 205 – 265
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*Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry activity + age-related attrition (excludes non-retirement turnover)
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Trades Average Age-Related Attrition Rates
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OCCUPATIONAVE. AGE OF THE LABOUR
FORCE
TEN-YEAR AVE. AGE-RELATED
ATTRITION RATE
Industry Total 40 23%
Crane Operators 42 25%
Industrial Electricians 41 25%
Power Engineers (Steam-ticket required) 38 24%
Heavy-duty Equipment Mechanics 40 23%
Heavy Equipment Operators (except crane) 40 23%
Insulators 40 22%
Millwrights 39 22%
Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors 41 22%
Welders 39 21%
Steamfitters and Pipefitters 39 20%
Oil and Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers, and Related Workers 37 16%
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Provincial Analysis
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British Columbia (BC) Alberta (AB)
Foreign investment and the province’s liquids-rich natural gas plays have kept BC’s oil and gas industry busier than expected, especially considering the lingering low natural gas price environment. However, the province is at a turning point as stakeholders wait to see if the development of an LNG export sector proceeds.
Technology has a significant impact on the province’s oil and gas production potential as it allows companies to undertake new exploration and rework old wells. Alberta’s oil sands are expected to expand at a sustainable rate although growth may be impeded by market and transportation constraints.
Saskatchewan (SK) Rest of Canada (RoC)
Growth is driven by increased activity in the prolific Bakken shale oil formation where technology is reversing the decline in light oil production. Technology is also boosting activity around Lloydminster as thermal technology is being applied to enhance heavy oil production in the area. With the increased use of rail to address pipeline capacity issues, activity is expected to increase over the next couple of years, regardless of scenario.
The majority of current industry activity is for Manitoba’s production from the Bakken shale oil formation, Nova Scotia’s offshore natural gas and Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil. Technology has increased the potential of industry expansion across Canada, including the development of shale oil and gas deposits and the potential for LNG exports from Canada’s east coast.
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Employment Impacts of Oil and Gas Investment and Activities to 2022
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Investments and activities by the oil and gas industry benefit all Canadians.
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Building Canada’s Workforce
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Ideal Canadian Labour Supply Pools
Demand for Labour
Labour Force Participation Rate
Growth Rate of Working Age Population
Landed Immigrants
New Entrants
Unemployed/Underemployed
Aboriginal Peoples
Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs)
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Demand-driven Workforce Solutions
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Given the global competitiveness for skilled workers, industry must continue working with government, education and training institutions and other labour supply stakeholders to increase the talent pool for the oil and gas industry.
www.petrohrsc.ca19 Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
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