strategic analysis of global hybrid and electric heavy duty transit bus market
TRANSCRIPT
Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market
China to Account for Nearly Half the Global Hybrid/Electric Bus Sales by 2020
NC7C-18
September 2013
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Research Team
Jason Huang Consultant,
Automotive & Transportation
86.21.5407.5780
Chandramowli K Senior Research Analyst,
Automotive & Transportation
91.44.6681.4018
Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst
Research Director
Sandeep Kar Research Director, Commercial Vehicles
Automotive & Transportation
1.416.490.7796
Strategic Review Committee Leader
Franck Leveque Vice President,
Automotive & Transportation
49.(0)69.770.3321
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 5
Research Objective, Methodology, Background, and Scope 23
Definitions and Segmentation 29
Transit Bus System in Passenger Mobility 34
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 46
Drivers and Restraints – H&E HD Transit Bus Market 52
Market Forecast—H&E HD Transit Bus Market 58
Global HD Transit Bus Market—Sales Forecasts 56
Top Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus – Key OEM Forecasts 58
Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market in 2020 – Hybrid and Electric 61
Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market – Market Share Analysis (2012 and 2020) 62
Profiles of Key Market Participants 69
Top Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus OEM Profiling 77
Top Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping 86
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Contents (continued)
Section Slide Numbers
Region Wise H&E HD Transit Bus Market 93
Chinese Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 94
European Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 104
North American Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 112
Indian Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 119
Latin American Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 125
Russian Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 131
Rest of World Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 137
Technology Trends and Analysis 146
Lithium Ion Battery 154
Li-Ion Battery Cost Breakdown 157
Ultracapacitors (UCs) in Buses 161
Transit Buses: Cost Comparison Between UC Vs Diesel Bus 166
Fuel Cell Range Extenders 170
Fuel Cell System — Cost Split Analysis 173
Conclusions and Future Outlook 174
Appendix 179
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Executive Summary
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0 20 40 60
Russia
LatinAmerica
NorthAmerica
India
Europe
China
Units (000s)
2012 2011
6.7%
(8.8%)
3.5%
2.7%
(9.7%)
5.8%
• Robust demand from Tier II cities and new
BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) services have helped
sustain market growth in China.
• Sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures
across Europe weakened transit bus demand.
However, subsidies were extended to green
energy buses.
• Despite slowdown in second half of the year,
the Indian transit bus market experienced a
marginal yoy growth. The slowdown is
expected to continue through 2013.
• North American bus industry showed recovery
on the backing of replacement orders and
federal push for green mobility.
• Slowing Brazilian economy, coupled with Euro
V introduction impacted transit bus sales.
However, there was a recovery in the last
quarter.
• Russia’s urban passenger mobility space saw
major push in wake of rising congestion and
the modernization drive by fleets.
Executive Summary—Top HD Transit Bus Market Performance The global market softened across the board in 2012, and North America and India showed moderate
growth in transit bus sales while China and Russia experienced decent growth.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions Unit
Shipment, Global, 2011 and 2012
Note: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above
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• Door-to-door integrated, multimobility a reality in future
• Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first- and last-mile connectivity
• Government to combine public transport with bike/two-wheeler/car-rental schemes
• Market will see new participants in market termed as Mobility Integrators Source: Frost & Sullivan
Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility The future of urban transportation is multimodal commuting, combining door-to-door solutions using dedicated
mobility platforms.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Transit Solutions Comparative Analysis, Global, 2020
City
Suburbs
Intercity T
rave
l D
ista
nce
Travel Distance Destination
Private Cars
Shared Mobility
Micro-mobility
Intercity Bus
Intercity
Train
Shared Mobility
Transit Bus
Cycle
Urban Railway
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Urban
Rail
Car Sharing
Bike Sharing
Bicycle
Walking
Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility (continued) The HD transit buses and BRT provide a 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd capacity that can bridge the gap between
high-capacity upstream urban rail systems and low-capacity downstream transportation options.
• Subways and heavy urban rail systems are
available in city centres in urban areas.
• The operating capacities are 70,000 to
120,000 passenger per hour per direction
(pphpd).
• Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-
motorized transportation options emerge
critical in delivering the last-mile
connectivity.
• Conventional buses can handle
capacities in the range of 3,000 to 5,000
pphpd.
• BRT has an ideal capacity of 10,000 to
15,000 pphpd to bridge the gap.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urban
Transportation
Puzzle
Transit Bus
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0
1
2
3
4
5
Passenger Information System
[5], [4.5]
Environmental Footprint
[5], [4]
Route Flexibility
[1], [4.5]
Efficiency [5], [4]
Capital Expenditure
[1], [4.5]
Network (Distance)
[2], [4]
Flexible Frequency
[4], [3]
Journey experience
[4.5], [4] Off Vehicle Fare Collection
[4.5], [3.5]
Urban Rail Transit Bus
Ratings: [Urban Rail], [Transit Bus]
Total Ratings:
Urban Rail—32
Transit Bus—36
Executive Summary—Comparison of Transit Bus and Urban Railway Transit bus systems emerge as a sustainable solution for both developed and developing economies, with
relatively lower capital expenditure and high route flexibility compared to railway system.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Transit Solutions Comparative Analysis, Global, 2012
0-Min
5-Max
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Executive Summary—Transit Bus Market Key Influencing Trends The lowest pressure on existing energy infrastructure and lower emissions relative to CNG/LNG* buses will
catalyze the relevance and prevalence of hybrid buses for urban mobility through the forecast period and after.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Influencing Trends, Global, 2012–2020
Source: ECLAC and Frost & Sullivan
Regulatory Environment
• Legislations mandating greener transport solutions
• Subsidies for electric/hybrid/ alternate fuel vehicles
• Strict fuel efficiency targets
Energy Storage modules
• Rapid technological
advancements
• Falling module prices
• Increased production capacity
Infrastructure development
• Investment in charging
infrastructure
• Preference for BRT system
• Off-board ticketing system
Global Competition
• Expansion into global markets to
increase revenue
• Develop innovative transit solutions to
stay ahead of competition
Energy Security
• Reducing dependency on energy
import
• Adoption of renewable and
alternate energy
• Drive towards fuel efficient
vehicles
Urbanization and Congestion
• Low emission zones
• Low cost and quick mass transport
• Connectivity between multiple points
in city and suburbs
*Compressed natural gas/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG)
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Executive Summary—2020 Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market BRIC nations will lead growth, however, the ROW markets such as Africa and ASEAN are expected to gain
significance as they migrate towards economical and flexible urban transportation solutions.
Size of ball denotes the ‘HD Transit Bus’ market size by unit shipment in respective regions.
‘x’ Ranking of region as per market size ‘H&E Transit Bus’
China
~73,200
CAGR: 5.4%
Global Share: 26.3% India
CAGR: 6.5%
Global Share: 14.7%
~40,700
Latin America
CAGR: 6.3%
Global Share: 20.9%
~58,100
Russia
CAGR: 7.7%
Global Share: 8.8%
~24,500
Europe
CAGR: 3.9%
Global Share: 5.3%
~14,800
North America
CAGR: 4.2%
Global Share: 2.4%
~6,700
RoW
CAGR: 8.4%
Global Share: 21.6%
~60,000
1
2 3
4
5 6
7
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012-2020
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H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012–2020
Executive Summary—Unit Shipment Forecast HD Transit Bus Market Global transit bus sales are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% on account of demand for green buses
rising from government mandates and commitments; share of diesel powertrain to reduce to 74%.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
China India Russia Europe ROW
Diesel and others CNG/LNG Hybrid & Electric
2012
2020 Regional Shares
2020
~168 thousand
~278 thousand
37%
9%
28%
5%
6%
30%
8%
15%
6%
89%
33%
84%
58% 84%
85%
80% 52%
76%
72%
Un
its
HD: 8T and above (or) 10m and above
Others: Bio-fuel, Gasoline, Ethanol, LPG
5%
13%
30%
7% 14%
11%
9%
18%
16%
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
6.4% CAGR
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Executive Summary—Hybrid Transit Bus Penetration by Architecture Parallels will dominate the global hybrid powertrain market as tough economic situations will influence buying
decisions towards low-cost solutions. Top hybrid module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Market Share by Hybrid Architecture, Global, 2012–2020
20202012
96 %
95 % 84 % 83 %
~26,900
~7,700
2012
Un
its
Series 11.6%
Parallel 67.2%
Series-Parallel 21.2%
Series, 17.9%
Parallel 56.4%
Series-Parallel 25.7%
2020
Hybrid Architecture
Penetration
16.9% CAGR
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
HD: 8T and above (or) 10m and above
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Region Conventional (Diesel) Hybrid Electric
Latin America $200,000-$225,000 $280,000-$340,000 $410,000-$500,000
China $60,000-$90,000 $125,000–$200,000 $280,000–$350,000
India $75,000-$110,000 $175,000–$255,000 $325,000–$410,000
North America $350,000-$450,000 $500,000–$595,000 $625,000–$710,000
Europe $300,000-$410,000 $450,000–$540,000 $595,000–$680,000
Russia $130,000-$180,000 $245,000–$325,000 $400,000–$500,000
ROW $100,000-$350,000 $195,000–$500,000 $300,000–$700,000
Executive Summary—Region Wise Price Comparison for Transit Buses China will feature the most competitively priced hybrid/electric transit buses, and prices for both conventional
and alternative powertrain-propelled transit buses were found highest in TRIAD (NA, Europe, Japan) markets.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Price Scenario, Global, 2012
Major low-cost markets Major high-cost markets
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Executive Summary—Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping Participants to increasingly focus on parallel module with 3 major suppliers likely to introduce it by 2014.
Chinese module integrators are poised to capture significant market volume, however restricted to China.
Series
Parallel
Series-
Parallel
(Dual)
Allison
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Hybrid Module Product Mapping, Global, 2012
BAE Eaton Siemens Vosslah Voith
H40EP / H50EP
HybriDrive
DIWA Eaton Hybrid
ELFA Vosslah Hybrid
ZF
EcoLife
Parallel system
is expected to
hit the market
by 2014.
Siemens’ will look to establish its brand as
complete hybrid system solution provider in
addition to being major sub-system supplier.
Partnerships with top Chinese bus
OEMs have propelled Eaton to global
leadership.
Allison is expected to look at vertical
integration of hybrid components to
expand its presence and increase
revenue.
In addition to new bus
systems, ZF offers option
of retrofit in existing transit
buses.
Hyb
rid
Arc
hit
ec
ture
Module Suppliers Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Module
Supplier
Bus OEMs—North America Bus OEMs—Europe
Nova
Bus NABI
New-
Flyer Gillig MAN Daimler
Van
Hool Solaris ADL Optare
Wright
Bus IVECO VDL
Allison
BAE
Eaton
Siemens
Voith
Vossloh
ZF
Executive Summary—Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs Volvo is the only major participant to have hybrid system developed in-house. Allison leads North American
hybrid transit bus market as supplier shipping most hybrid powertrain systems.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, NA and
Europe, 2012
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Module
Supplier
Top Bus OEMs – China – India
Yutong Wuzhoulong Foton Golden
Dragon Kinglong Zhongtong TATA
Allison
BAE
Eaton
Fugong
ZF
Executive Summary—Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs A lack of local hybrid expertise Has benefitted global suppliers. In the future, as global suppliers start local
bases, China and India can become export hubs due to low raw material and manufacturing cost.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, Global, 2012
Source: Frost & Sullivan
• In China, Siemens is represented as a sub-system supplier to many of the above module integrators.
• India is a sizable market opportunity and is expected to be predominantly a parallel hybrid market.
• Since the Indian hybrid bus market is expected to reach a considerable volume only after 2016, Eaton
may miss the advantage as other module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems by then.
• In addition, Volvo with its captive hybrid module and first mover advantage as a leader in high end transit
bus market is likely to dominate the Indian hybrid bus market.
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Region
New Energy Powertrains Energy Storage Technologies
Parallel
Hybrid
Series
Hybrid
Series-Parallel
Hybrid Pure Electric
Ni-Mh
Batteries
Li-ion
Batteries
Ultracapacitors
(UCs) UC Hybrid
Latin
America
Europe
North
America
China
India
Russia
ROW
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, Global,
2012–2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan Strong Trend Towards 2020 Moderate Trend Towards 2020 Market in 2012
Executive Summary—Transit Bus Powertrain and ESS Standard Parallel hybrids are expected to strengthen its market position due to the cost advantage over other systems.
UCs and UC hybrids will gain prominence as a primary energy storage system, especially in hybrid buses.
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Geographical Presence (Production and Integration) Battery
Chemistry North
America EU China Japan South Korea India Cathode
AESC Manganese
Spinel
LG Chem Manganese
GS Yuasa Cobalt +
Manganese
Panasonic Phosphate
Toshiba Phosphate
Li-Tec Manganese
BYD Phosphate
JCI Phosphate
Exide Polymer
SK Energy Polymer +
Manganese
Hitachi NA
Miljø Innovasjon
AS Polymer
Dow Kokam Manganese
Executive Summary—Battery Manufacturer Geographical Map The limited geographic presence of Tier I battery suppliers (from an integration point of view) is opening
opportunities for material suppliers within the electric vehicles (EV) battery space.
- Not considering - Present (Integration Capability) Considering Options N/A- Not Available Source: Frost & Sullivan
Battery
Manufacturers
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Battery Manufacturer Geographical Presence, Global, 2012
The bankruptcy of major American battery manufacturers, such as A123 and Enerdal, will impact
ongoing research and subsequently delay the improvements in Li-ion battery technologies.
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Market Ride
Cost/trip
Operational
Subsidy
Vehicle Price
(12 m) Customer Types Key OEM Focal Points
Latin
America $0.75-$1 No subsidy $200,000-$225,000 Private operators
• Financing and leasing
• Localized assembly
China $0.25-$0.30 Subsidized $60,000-$90,000
Public (state purchase and
leased to private
operators)
• Product quality (life cycle
enhancement)
• Localized assembly
• Advanced powertrain
technologies
India $0.2/stage Subsidized $100,000-$125,000 Public (state operator) • Product quality
• STU collaboration
North
America $1-$5 Subsidized $300,000-$400,000 Public (local transit agency)
• Advanced powertrain
development
• Reduced product delivery time
Europe $1.5-$4.0 Subsidized $250,000-$350,000 Public (local transit agency) • Advanced powertrain
development
Russia $0.75-$0.83 Subsidized $130,000-$180,000 Public (local transit agency) • Localized assembly
• Collaboration with local OEMs
ROW $0.5-$10 Subsidized/
no subsidy $100,000-$350,000 Public/private
• Distribution and after-sales
network
Executive Summary—Key Regional Focal Points for OEMs Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) should look at developing independent market entry strategies for
different regions.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Scenario, Global, 2012
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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Yutong
Volvo
Wuzhoulong
Foton
FAW
Kinglong
CSR Times
Ankai
Sunwin
New Flyer
Golden Dragon
Higer
Gillig
Daimler
BYD
ADL
Optare
Europe North America China Latin America RoW
Executive Summary—Unit Shipment H&E Transit Bus OEMs Yutong led the global H&E bus market, and Volvo’s global footprint enabled it to sell nearly 1,000 units.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment by OEMs, Global, 2012
Units
Volvo is currently the
only OEM to have
representation in all key
global markets for H&E
buses.
High growth in H&E bus sales has
provided the Chinese OEMs the
confidence to aggressively invest in
the technology and to rapidly foray
into capacity building.
BYD will establish overseas plants
starting with one in California in 2013.
Uruguay has placed the largest eBus
order and it is expected to be fulfilled
though 2015.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan Note: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above
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The global HD transit bus market is set to reach ~278,000 units by 2020 with a CAGR of 6.4%
over the 2012 to 2020 forecast period. China and Latin America will contribute 47.2% of global
volumes.
1
2
By 2020, market penetration of hybrid transit buses is expected to reach 9.7%, while that of
electric buses is expected to be 5.4%. The combined market size is forecasted to be ~41,800
units growing at a CAGR of 20.7%.
3
Chinese manufacturers such as Yutong, Wuzhoulong, Foton, and Kinglong are expected to top
the global hybrid and electric transit bus market. Volvo, MAN, and Daimler will feature as non-
Chinese members of the top 10 hybrid and electric (H&E) transit bus OEMs by unit volumes.
Vertical integration efforts to be increasingly pursued by Western OEMs while Eastern OEMs will
develop synergistic relationships with Tier 1 suppliers of powertrain systems.
4
By 2020, parallel hybrid systems will strengthen its market share from 56% in 2012 to about 67%,
and remain the most prevalent hybrid powertrain architecture. Market dominance by Eaton,
Allison, and BAE is expected to be challenged by as ZF, Siemens, and new Chinese hybrid
integrators such as Fugong and Santroll.
5 Globally, more than 250 BRT lines are operational or under various stages of implementation. This
translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle purchase and replacement demand,
especially for H&E buses.
Key Findings
Total H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Research Findings, Global, 2012–2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan