stories of the future: telling scenarios

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Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

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Page 1: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Page 2: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Scenarios Stories about futures• Event and response• Creativity

• Roles and times• Emergent practices

and patterns

Page 3: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Who am I?

• NITLE senior fellow• Social media

mainline• Future

studies

Page 4: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Today’s plan

1.Gamified Reality

2.The Long Great Recession

3.Past Peak Oil4.WorldBoard

Page 5: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Caveats are mandatory

• Each scenario can be intertwingled

• Narrative and/or complexity

• Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror

Page 6: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

I: Gamified Reality

Page 7: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Gaming extends throughout everyday life:

…literally…practically…conceptually

Page 8: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios
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Very explicitly about behavior modification

Page 10: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Imperial gamification

Page 11: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Large simulations are normal

(political and

mundane)

Page 12: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios
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II: The Long Great Recession

Page 15: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Federal funding continues

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Turning Japan in the 1990s

Page 18: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Stagnation and decline

Page 19: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Decay sets in, grows

Page 20: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Chronic popular

discontent

Media battles

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III: Past Peak Oil

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“’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”

Page 27: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Nightmare scenario

It gets worse:• No full

replacements• Population and

demand grow• Costs keep

growing

Oil is used for:• Transportation• Food fertilizer• Medicines• Plastics

Page 28: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Some checks

• New Saudi Arabias• Miracle science• Global recession• Climate change

disasters

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Shift to any alternatives

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Hoarding and panics

Page 31: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

Security state intensifies

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Walled gardens proliferate

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Military adventures attract

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Infrastructure breaks down

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IV: WorldBoard

Page 37: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

World of sensor nets

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Back to 2010

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Back to 2010

Page 45: Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

NITLEhttp://nitle.org

Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/

NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/

Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander