spatial@gov conference 2011 john bally

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

John Bally

Forecast Systems to Generate

Spatial Weather Information


Introduction

- Traditional Weather Forecasting

- NexGen Forecast and Warning System

- Satellite derived data streams

- Temporal and spatial detail

- NexGenFWS as an interactive processing engine


Traditional “Manual” Text Forecasts

FORECASTS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIAN PROVINCIAL TOWNS

Issued at 4:30am WST on Friday the 28th of October 2011

for today and tonight

IDW1400012

KUNUNURRA:

The risk of a gusty shower or thunderstorm. Light winds.

Maximum temperature: 37

UV Alert: 7:20 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

IDW1400001

BROOME:

Sunny. Light S/SW winds tending moderate W'ly by the afternoon.

Maximum temperature: 32

UV Alert: 7:40 am to 3:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]


Traditional Fire Weather Forecast

- Once or twice per day

- 20 to 50 points

- representative?

- Interpolation? (topo, local effects, fuel A.)

- Poor use of environmental information

95%

Curing

3832980NNE4525832Bothwell

FFDIGFDIDFSDIWindRHDew

Temp

Max

Temp

Location


Traditional Forecasting

Examine information:

• surface measurements

• satellite and radar images

• computer models

Construct mental

picture of how weather

will evolve

Type forecasts


What’s wrong with tradition?

• Too much info for forecasters

• Ad-hoc forecast process

• Limited information in products

• Impractical to verify most forecasts

• Forecasters spend too much time typing

• Limited product sets


NPP: Next Generation Forecast and Warning System

• Costed function target:

Modernised state-of-the-art weather forecast services

• KPI:

Increased detail and content of forecast services, with national consistency, flexibility, responsiveness and greater accessibility (including Internet based services). In particular, seven day forecasts for 650 locations in Australia and "point and click" Internet-based extraction of forecast for any location


Aqua

Terra

TRMM

SORCE

SeaWiFS

Aura

Meteor/

SAGE

GRACE

ICESat

Cloudsat

Jason

CALIPSO

GIFTS

TOPEX

Landsat

NOAA/

POES

GOES-R

WindSAT

NPP

COSMIC/GPS

SSMIS

NPOESS

MSG

Weather and Ocean Satellite systems


MTSat-1R VIS AMVs generated around 00 UTC on 17 October 2010.


GPS/COSMIC Radio Occultation

24 transmitters

6 receivers3000 occultations/day


GPS / COSMIC

GPS radio occultation sounding positions for 15 March 2009.

(Image courtesy of UCAR.)


Models


Weather Model skill over time

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

MAE OC

Day+1 Day+2 Day+3 Day+4 Day+5 Day+6 Day+7 Official Day+1

ECSP low res.

USGFS lo

res

GASP,

LAPS

upgrade

ECSP hi

Canadian MSM

LAPS 050

(Adelaide,

Perth)

MOF ends

Operational

USGFS hi res


Is there a better way?

• Lots more and smarter forecasters?

• Just use the models?

• What about a spatial forecasting environment?


What is the NexGen FWS?

GOCF

NexGenFWS

Other obs &

systems


Forecast Process Tool Kit


Fire Weather Grid Creation


Wind and temperature field moved simultaneously

Before

morphAfter

morph

Front moves east.

Mountains & coasts stay put.

Morphing


Basic Weather Elements

PoP

Sky Dewpoint

Precip


Weather Grids



Fire Weather Elements

Hourly FFDI Time of Max FFDI




Hours >50 FFDI Max FFDR




Time of Wind Change Wind Following Change



Drought Index & Drought Factor

• Forecast DF

• Rainfall forecast weighted to 75% confidence



Curing / Fuel coverage example



Curing / Fuel coverage


Benefits : detail in time, space, elements, XML


Benefits : views, interoperability


Summary

• Better use of NWP models

• Systematic forecast process

• Temporal and spatial detail

• Can verify everything

• Efficiency gains

• Many new services

• Towards interoperability across agencies


John Bally

Forecast Systems to Generate

Spatial Weather Information

Thankyou

spatial@gov conference 2011 john bally

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