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  • iii | P a g e

    South Sudan Rapid Market Assessment

    Published in February 2015 - Data collected in October 2014

    For additional information, please contact:

    WFP South Sudan

    Bernard Owadi, Head of VAM

    bernard.owadi@wfp.org

    WFP Regional Bureau

    Simon Dradri, Senior Regional Programme Advisor / Market Analyst

    simon.dradri@wfp.org

    WFP Headquarters

    Oscar Maria Caccavale, Economist / Market Analyst

    oscar.caccavale@wfp.org

    Tobias Flmig, Head of Economic and Market Analysis Unit

    tobias.flaemig@wfp.org

    Arif Husain, Chief Economist & Deputy Director Policy and Programme Division

    arif.husain@wfp.org

    All rights reserved. The reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial uses is authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders, provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Director, Communications Division, e-mail: wfp.publications@wfp.org

    WFP 2015

    World Food Programme Via Cesare Giulio Viola, 68/70 - 00148 Rome - Italy

    www.wfp.org/food-security

    mailto:bernard.owadi@wfp.orgfile:///C:/Users/bernard.owadi/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.Outlook/RTLOD01E/simon.dradri@wfp.orgmailto:oscar.caccavale@wfp.orgmailto:tobias.flaemig@wfp.orgmailto:arif.husain@wfp.orgmailto:wfp.publications@wfp.org

  • iv | P a g e

    Contents List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... v

    List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... v

    List of Maps ............................................................................................................................................. v

    Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ vi

    Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................... vi

    Key Findings .......................................................................................................................................... vii

    Executive summary .............................................................................................................................. viii

    1. Background and objective of the study .............................................................................................. 1

    2. Economic and market environment ................................................................................................... 2

    2.1 Macroeconomic prospects: the curse of oil.................................................................................. 3

    2.2 Import dependency ....................................................................................................................... 6

    3. Food availability .................................................................................................................................. 8

    3.1 Overview (the 2013/14 season) .................................................................................................... 8

    3.1.1 Domestic production ............................................................................................................. 8

    3.1.2 Food aid .................................................................................................................................. 9

    3.2 Outlook (season 2014/15) ............................................................................................................ 9

    4. Market structure and conduct .......................................................................................................... 11

    4.1 Food supply chains (imported and domestic) ............................................................................. 11

    4.2 Greater Upper Nile ...................................................................................................................... 13

    4.2.1 Trade flows ........................................................................................................................... 13

    4.2.2 Main markets ....................................................................................................................... 14

    4.3 Greater Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal ........................................................................................ 18

    4.3.1 Trade flows ........................................................................................................................... 19

    4.3.2 Main markets ....................................................................................................................... 20

    4.4 Market catchment areas and IDP settlements ........................................................................... 24

    5. Market performance ......................................................................................................................... 28

    5.1 Wholesale prices ......................................................................................................................... 28

    5.2 Retail prices ................................................................................................................................. 28

    5.3 Impact of in-kind food assistance ............................................................................................... 30

    Concluding remarks .............................................................................................................................. 33

    Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 36

    Annex I Additional tables and figures ................................................................................................ 37

    Annex II Impact Response Analysis .................................................................................................... 41

  • v | P a g e

    List of Figures Figure 1 - GDP per capita ........................................................................................................................ 3

    Figure 2 - Foreign assets and exchange rates ......................................................................................... 4

    Figure 3 - Inflation ................................................................................................................................... 5

    Figure 4 - Balance of Trade ..................................................................................................................... 6

    Figure 5 - Imports by category in 2012 ................................................................................................... 6

    Figure 6 - Formal trade with Uganda ...................................................................................................... 7

    Figure 7 - 2014/15 Shares of supply based on demand estimates ....................................................... 11

    Figure 8 - Food supply chains ................................................................................................................ 12

    Figure 9 - Maize and sugar wholesale prices ........................................................................................ 28

    Figure 10 - Maize grain prices in Juba and Gulu (Uganda).................................................................... 30

    Figure 11 - Maize, sorghum and in-kind food assistance...................................................................... 30

    Figure 12 - Expenditures as a share of GDP .......................................................................................... 38

    Figure 13 - Sorghum Retail Prices ......................................................................................................... 38

    Figure 14 - Vegetable Oil Retail Prices .................................................................................................. 39

    Figure 15 - Bean Retail Prices ................................................................................................................ 39

    Figure 16 - Maize Retail Prices .............................................................................................................. 39

    Figure 17 - Wheat Flour Retail Prices .................................................................................................... 40

    Figure 18 - Grand Seasonal Indices ....................................................................................................... 40

    Figure 19 - Impulse Response Functions .............................................................................................. 42

    List of Tables Table 1 - Non-oil vs. oil sector (as a share of GDP and exports) ............................................................. 4

    Table 2 - Cereal food distributions (thousand tons) by state ................................................................. 9

    Table 3 - Cereal: Expected surplus/deficit in 2014 and 2015 ............................................................... 10

    Table 4 - Cost