On January 15th hundreds more heav-ily armed Ethiopian troops werereported to have crossed into Gedoregion reported Somali Puntlandpost.

Radio Bar-Kulan (3 ⁄ 1) reported thatAl Shabaab had withdrawn from partsof Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions, aftermoderate Islamists Ahlu Sunnah walJama’a (ASWJ) and the TFG forcesheaded towards the localities.

Somalia Report said Kenyan planes hadbombed an al Shabaab convoy in theGedo region.

Reports by Somalia Report from Gedoand Lower Jubba regions in southernSomalia on January 9th indicated thatfresh troops from Kenya and Ethiopiaand Somali forces trained abroad hadentered the country and were headingfor the southern front line where thereis ongoing fierce fighting.

Low flying planes were seen flying overthe Al Shabaab controlled areas of theregion, causing fear among residents.Recent airstrikes have resulted in a sub-stantial number of casualties. By Janu-ary 15th Somalia Report said Kenyanair raids had ousted Al Shabaab frommany of Gedo bases causing them towithdraw into Bay region.

Both Gedo and Lower Jubba are strate-gic regions, abutting the borders ofKenya and Ethiopia, critical to the con-trol of southern Somalia. Kenyan sol-diers have set up a base in the town ofFaafaxdhuun in southwest Somalia,which they captured on January 3rd,according to theKenyan privately-owneddaily newspaperThe Standard (9 ⁄ 1).

Facing intense military pressure onmultiple fronts, Al Shabaab has beenrecruiting children and has appealedfor assistance from Somali communitiesabroad. Shabeelle Media Network saidAl Shabaab had ordered youths inLower and Middle Shabeelle regions toregister in order to be recruited asfighters. The group was also reportedto have adbucted some 200 childrenfrom the town of Afgoye to serve in itsmilitia. (Sources as referenced in text)

Intervention by Kenya and Ethiopiawill drive Al Shabaab from its strong-holds but won’t produce a viable gov-ernment, said Africa Confidential.

Hopes of progress towards an effectivegovernment to preside over nationalreconstruction in 2012 look overblown,despite the growing roster of countriesintervening militarily or diplomatically.Indeed, many now favour a more regio-nal or confederal approach, arguing forthe recognition of local political realitiesand of self-governing provincial entities.

Attention will focus on the two latestarrivals, Kenya and Britain. After a

poor start, Kenya’s troops may makeprogress, only to discover that successcan create more complications on theground. The British government issponsoring a peace conference early in2012, moved by concern about its com-mercial interests in Ethiopia, Kenyaand Uganda and worry about domesticterrorism. After a United States’ dronekilled Al Qaeda commander Fazul Ab-dullah Mohamed in June (Vol. 48, p.18859), Africa Confidential heard thatplans were found on his laptop com-puter for attacks in London on Olym-pic and other targets. Details of theplans were restricted to MI5, the SecretIntelligence Service (MI6) and thepolice counter-terrorism branch (SO15).Arrests have been made.

Intervention by neighbouring countries,especially Kenya and Ethiopia, willreduce the territory controlled by AlShabaab but not shut it down. Militaryvictories are unlikely to be matched bypolitical achievements. The TFG isambivalent about such successes, as theintervening neighbours encourage thedevelopment of self-governing areaswith a strong sense of autonomy fromMogadishu – and the new authoritiesbehave like the TFG, grabbing foreignaid and neglecting people hit by 2011’sdevastating drought.

Significantly weakened, Al Shabaab willfocus on terrorist attacks targeted formaximum effect, mainly in Somalia butalso in Puntland and Somaliland. It willprobably seek to retaliate against itsregional adversaries, although terrorattacks in Kenya and Uganda wouldbe unlikely to deter their governments.

US and European counter-terroristefforts will target more senior Al Sha-baab figures and perhaps deter its jih-adi financial backers in the Gulf. Yet inmost of Somalia, it will continue itstargeted killings and use of improvisedexplosive devices. Even reduced to ahard core of militants, Al Shabaab canuse its military skills to great effect. Itmay also exploit Somalis’ instinctivenationalism to regain ground lost toKenya’s and Ethiopia’s invasions.

The TFG gives little leadership. Itsinability and unwillingness to pay thepolice and the army properly, despitestrong external pressure, undermines itsstanding with local people (who don’texpect much). It looks increasingly likea vehicle to host various regional andforeign interventions, which may juststay in business in 2012 but has scantlocal credibility. (Africa Confidential 6 ⁄ 1)

Al-Qaeda Official Killed: Radio Simbaquoted a US official as saying that their‘‘drones had killed an Al Qaeda mem-ber named Bilal al-Barjawi’’. Al Sha-baab officials said he was of Lebanese

descent and had grown up in WestLondon. British authorities denied thathe was a British citizen.

An Al Shabaab spokesman said that Mr.Barjawi was a close associate of FazulAbdullah Mohammed, Al Qaeda’s leaderin East Africa and the mastermind of theAmerican Embassy bombings in Kenyaand Tanzania. (Radio Simba, Mogadishu22 ⁄ 1; New York Times 23 ⁄ 1)

Shabeelle Director Murdered: ShabeelleMedia Network director Hasan UsmanAbdi, better known locally as ‘‘HasanFantastic’’, was gunned down outsidehis Mogadishu home on January 28th.Abdi is the third Shabeelle Media Net-work director to be murdered, follow-ing Bashir Nur Gedi in 2007 andMukhtar Muhammad Hirabe in 2009.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said:‘‘Violence against journalists in Somaliais sustained by impunity for those respon-sible. It is quite clear that Abdi was delib-erately targeted. We call for a serious andimpartial investigation that leads to theidentification of his murderers.’’

Radio Shabeelle is Somalia’s mostrenowned privately-owned radio stationand the one that is most exposed to vio-lence. It was awarded the RSF PressFreedom Prize in the ‘‘Media’’ categoryin December 2010.

Somalia is ranked 164th out of 179countries in the annual press freedomindex that RSF published on January25th. (Reporters Sans Frontieres website,Paris 28 ⁄ 1)

New Administration: The ‘‘Khatumo 2’’[Guidance 2] meeting concluded withthe announcement of a new administra-tion which will be under the TFG inthe disputed regions of Sool, Sanaagand Ceyn. The meeting was attendedby clans that reside in these regions.

The formation of this administration willbe a setback for Somaliland which cur-rently controls parts of these regions.Puntland welcomed the news althoughthe new administration will also beestablished in areas under its control.The decision will be compliant with theTransitional Federal Charter whichallows for the formation of such admin-istrations by two or more regions comingtogether. (Jowhar website, Mogadishu 13 ⁄ 1)Strategic town recaptured Vol. 48, p. 19099.

SOUTH SUDANJonglei Situation Critical

Under-development is a key driverof the conflict.

Thousands of villagers in South Sudanhid in the bush in early January, wait-ing for UN and government troops to

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stop a cattle vendetta. A column ofsome 6,000 armed youths from the LouNuer tribe marched on the remotetown of Pibor in troubled Jonglei state,home to the rival Murle people, whothey blame for cattle raiding and havevowed to exterminate.

They burned thatched huts and looteda hospital run by Doctors WithoutBorders (known by its French acronym- MSF), the worst flare-up in a disputethat has left more than 1,000 dead inrecent months and threatened to desta-bilise the world’s newest country.

A group calling itself the Nuer YouthWhite Army issued a statement onDecember 26th vowing to ‘‘wipe outthe entire Murle tribe... as the onlysolution to guarantee long-term securityof Nuer cattle.’’

The government and the UN, whichhas warned the violence could lead to a‘‘major tragedy’’, were beefing up theirforces in the area. Some 3,000 govern-ment troops and 800 police werereported to be heading to Pibor.

Despite disarmament efforts, gunsremain common in Jonglei, an isolatedand swampy state about the size ofAustria and Switzerland combined, butwith limited mud roads, often impass-able for months during heavy rains.

Ethnic violence, cattle raids and repri-sal attacks in the vast eastern state leftover 1,100 people dead and forcedsome 63,000 from their homes in 2011,according to UN reports based on localauthorities and assessment teams.

Tit-for-tat cattle raiding is common ina grossly underdeveloped region awashwith guns, but Information MinisterBarnaba Marial Benjamin said thatcasualties from recent clashes were notas high as many feared.

‘‘The Murle left their villages ahead ofthe Lou Nuer, so while some structureswere set on fire, not so much life waslost,’’ he said.

‘‘The Lou Nuer have been ordered toreturn back home and to leave Murlevillages, and some are already doingso,’’ Benjamin told AFP.

Many groups accuse the Murle ofabducting children from neighbouringtribes, with the boys used to herd cat-tle, and girls valued for the futuredowry of cows they will earn.

TheUN’s top official in South Sudan saidon January 7th that while ‘‘no evidence’’had been found of reported mass killings,some 60,000 people were in urgent needof aid. Up to a third of all huts had beenset on fire in targeted areas.

South Sudan has declared Jonglei anational ‘‘disaster area’’ while the UNhas said it will launch a ‘‘massive’’emergency operation to help thoseuprooted by the violence. (� AFP, Nai-robi 2,7 ⁄ 1)

The United Nations Mission in SouthSudan (UNMISS) is to set up perma-nent bases for peacekeepers in areasworst affected by ethnic violence inJonglei State. (The Africa Report 10 ⁄ 1)

Meanwhile Vice-President Riek Macharcalled on the international organiza-tions working in the new nation to helpreconcile the warring communities inthe troubled Jonglei State. (MirayaFM, Juba 12 ⁄ 1)Members of parliament in the NationalLegislative Assembly are blaming lackof action from the government for theescalating ethnic tensions in JongleiState.

The MPs have warned that the lack of atangible response from the governmentwas giving room for hostilities betweenthe Lou Nuer and Murle communities.Unless the government intervened, eth-nic rivalries could spread to other states.(Sudan Radio Service, Juba 17 ⁄ 1)

In response the government said itwould conduct an investigation to findout whether the escalating conflicts inJonglei State are politically motivated.Some members of parliament andministers have suggested that thetrend of violence in Jonglei State isbeing sponsored by government offi-cials. (USAID-funded Sudan Radio Service18 ⁄ 1)

The problems of a new state plagueSouth Sudan... While the biggest chal-lenges are from the old state to thenorth, a long-term observer added‘nation-building’ to the list, a perspectiveranging from truth and reconciliation tobasic services, from fostering nationalidentity to healing the trauma of war.

This trauma is evident in the headline-grabbing but long-brewing Piborconflict, which has killed hundreds ofpeople... It encapsulates the violence in

the South: rivalry among pastoralists.The price of cattle (therefore of brides)soars as men from the diaspora injectcash into a subsistence economy, com-bined with the weapons that are thedebris of war, plus NCP destabilisation:Khartoum for years backed IsmailKonyi’s Murle militia.

Such violence will recur, though somebelieve December’s killing of Khar-toum-backed militia chief George AthorDeng may calm things (Vol. 48, p.19100). Church groups and others areworking hard on reconciliation, withsome success. (Africa Confidential 6 ⁄ 1)

In a country awash with small arms,decades of tit-for-tat livestock raids –some 80,000 cattle were taken overrecent weeks – are often cited as theexplanation for the clashes. But otherconflict drivers are also in play, saidthe UN humanitarian news analysisservice, IRIN.

‘‘The causes of the violence go beyondthe retaliatory nature of cattle raidingin Jonglei state and touch uponbroader issues of accountability, recon-ciliation, political inclusion, an absenceof state authority, and development,’’said Jennifer Christian, Sudan policyanalyst for the Enough Project, in aJanuary 9th statement.

‘‘The political and security-related iso-lation of the two communities has con-tributed to the rise of parallelauthorities, and renders violence as oneof the few mechanisms for addressingcommunity grievances,’’ the statementadded.

According to the Sudan Council ofChurches (SCC), social changes havealso contributed to the violence.

‘‘There is a clear disconnect betweenthe youth and both the traditional andpolitical leaders. The tradition of youthrespecting and listening to their eldershas been lost. Without the youth’sinvolvement, and their sense of owner-ship of the peace process, any attemptat peace will fail,’’ the council said in aJanuary 18th statement.

‘‘Extremely young children are being‘initiated’ into the hatred and killing,ensuring that it will continue into thenext generation,’’ the statementwarned.

For the Enough Project, a broad strat-egy is necessary: ‘‘The delivery of basicservices, provision of security, andestablishment of rule of law by the gov-ernment in Lou Nuer and Murle areasare critical toward ending inter-commu-nal violence in the long term,’’ its state-ment urged.

This is a view echoed by the SCC: ‘‘Itis clear that under-development is a

Who runs Somalia?

(Adapted from terrorfreesomalia)

PUNTLAND(semi-autonomous)

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

EI Bur(al-Shabab base)

Shabelle River

Mogadishu

Kismayo

Juba River

Indian Ocean

Kenyan troops and local militia

Local militia supported by Ethiopia

Ethiopia troops and local militia

Islamist controlled

Pro-government administrations

African Union/govt controlled

Disputedarea

SOMALIA

SOMALILAND(self-declared

independence)

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key driver of conflict in the area, andthis is exacerbated by a perceptionthat some communities are neglected.Development of the more isolatedparts of Jonglei State must become apriority for government (e.g. roads),the business community (e.g. mobilephone networks) and the aid commu-nity.’’ (IRIN, UN 23 ⁄ 1) Rebel leader killed

Vol. 48,, p. 19100

SUDANMulti-Pronged Attacks

The Nuba are being driven out oftheir homelands to remove theSPLA-N’s support base.

There has been fresh fighting in BlueNile state, rebel and government forcessaid, while the United States haswarned of a possible ‘‘horrific’’ famineaffecting civilians in the area.

The Sudanese army has clashed with agroup of rebels who are caught, alongwith the adjoining state of SouthKordofan, in the midst of violence andan armed insurrection that Khartoumaccuses South Sudan of encouraging.The toll of the fighting, according tosources close to the rebels, is said to beat least 26 deaths and a shot-down heli-copter; the army reported 11 dead – sixof them soldiers – but denied that anaircraft had been damaged ordestroyed.

Fighting in Blue Nile erupted in Sep-tember between the government andethnic rebels, once allied to insurgentswho now rule in South Sudan. A simi-lar conflict began earlier in 2011 inSouth Kordofan, an oil-producingstate.

The United Nations estimates thatmore than 500,000 people have nowbeen displaced or severely affected byfighting in both states, with many flee-ing to neighbouring Ethiopia and SouthSudan.

The government, citing security con-cerns, continues to bar UN and foreignaid workers from the war zone. Thearea is at risk of famine without sub-stantial aid deliveries by March, the USambassador to the UN, Susan Rice,said. Thousands more could seek refugein South Sudan, ill-equipped to sustainthe influx.

Princeton Lyman, the US special envoyto Sudan, called on South Africa topressure Khartoum to let internationalaid groups into Blue Nile and SouthKordofan.

Sudan’s UN ambassador accused inter-national aid workers of using UNflights to carry arms and ammunitionfor the rebels – a claim for which the

UN’s top humanitarian official saidthere was ‘‘no evidence.’’

The UN is negotiating with the AfricanUnion (AU) and the Arab League toprovide observers in South Kordofanand Blue Nile states, ‘‘to perhaps givethe government of Sudan the confi-dence that they are looking for.’’ (�AFP 19 ⁄ 1; Misna, UN 20 ⁄ 1)

In apparent preparation for a finalassault against the Nuba people wholive in South Kordofan, the SudaneseArmed Forces (SAF) has cut off themain evacuation routes for refugeesfleeing areas already bombarded, hasencircled the remaining local civilianpopulation in the last rebel strongholdsof the Nuba Mountains, and is buildingroads and lengthening the closest air-strip within striking range, according tonew imagery released by the SatelliteSentinel Project (SSP).

Enough Project Co-founder John Pren-dergast stated: ‘‘With only two monthsleft until the expected start of the rainyseason, the Sudan army has a limitedwindow to launch a full-scale assaulton the Kauda Valley and the surround-ing region where the majority of theremaining Nuba people live. As theydid with the Ngok Dinka in Abyei andwith the Fur and Zaghawa in Darfur,the Khartoum regime is driving theNuba people out of their homelands inorder to remove the support base forthe rebel Sudan People’s LiberationArmy – North.

‘‘For years, there has been talk anddebate about the efficacy of a no-fly-zone or some other kind of deterrent tothe Khartoum regime’s use of airpower to attack civilian targets. Nowwould be the time for the UnitedNations Security Council or interestedmember states to create that deterrent,and combine it with a cross-borderhumanitarian aid operation to breakthe blockade the regime has createdwith its denial of access for emergencyassistance. If left to their own devices,thousands of Nuba civilians will die.’’

DigitalGlobe satellite imagery, analyzedfor SSP by the Harvard HumanitarianInitiative (HHI), documents newly ele-vated roads pointing into the NubaMountains from SAF-controlled areasand the build-up of forces in positionswhere they can easily deploy alongthose roads with heavy armour, artil-lery and close air support, includinghelicopter gunships. (Enough Project25 ⁄ 1)

UN Under-Secretary-General forPeacekeeping Operations, Herve Lad-sous, told the Council that increasedmilitary activity in Darfur was restric-tring the movement of the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping mission in

Darfur (UNAMID) and impeding itsability to carry out its mandate.

Ladsous further pointed out that whilea number of areas in Darfur remainrelatively free of military hostilities,there had been significant clashesbetween government troops and rebelforces in areas along the North Darfur-North Kordofan state border andSouth Darfur-South Kordofan border,as well as in the West Jabel Marraarea.

On the humanitarian situation in Dar-fur, he noted that there has been atrend of internally displaced personsand refugees voluntarily returning totheir home areas at a rate of approxi-mately 1,500 people per month,describing it as ‘‘encouraging’’. ‘‘Thetotal number of verified returnsbetween the beginning of January 2011and the end of October was 85,172 peo-ple, compared to the 70,000 peoplewho were newly displaced,’’ he said.

While most parts of Darfur were acces-sible to humanitarian organizations,with UNAMID security escort neededoutside the main town centres, accessto West Jebel Marra was repeatedlydenied, the UN official said. (PANA,New York 11 ⁄ 1)

Gunmen ambushed a UNAMID patrolin Darfur region on January 21st, kill-ing one Nigerian soldier and woundingthree, the UN said.

UN leader Ban Ki-moon strongly con-demned the attack and called on theSudanese government to carry out aspeedy investigation. UNAMID headIbrahim Gambari has called suchattacks a war crime and said the Khar-toum government should do ‘‘muchmore’’ to catch the perpetrators.

More than 30 peacekeepers have beenkilled in Darfur since the UN-AU mis-sion started in 2007. (� AFP, Khartoum21 ⁄ 1) ICC arrest warrant Vol. 48,, p. 19101

IN BRIEFBurundi: Radio France Internationale’s Swa-hili correspondent was among 23 people togo on trial for terrorism in late December.Hassan Ruvakuki is accused of giving thesign for rebels of the Forces for the Restora-tion of Democracy (FRUD) to launch anattack on November 20th . Nine others areaccused of spying for the group and 10 oftaking part in the attack. (RFI 29 ⁄ 12)Cote d’Ivoire: Ex-President Laurent Gbagbo’spersonal physician, Christophe Ble, wasordered to be freed on December 30th alongwith two pro-Ghagbo journalists. HermannAboa hosted a show which aired virulentcriticism of current President Alassane Ou-attara and Franck Anderson Kouassi headedthe media regulatory body.

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