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Socioeconomic Determinants for Fertility

Mette Gerster

PhD Defense, September 15th 2009

How to measure fertility?

I Fertility - actual births

I Fertility is a process that evolves over several years (inprinciple, from menarche to menopause)

I Several aspects are potentially of interest - several ways tomeasure it:

1. Number of children at a given age static or2. the parity progressions dynamic (magnifying glass)

How to measure fertility?

I Fertility - actual births

I Fertility is a process that evolves over several years (inprinciple, from menarche to menopause)

I Several aspects are potentially of interest - several ways tomeasure it:

1. Number of children at a given age static or2. the parity progressions dynamic (magnifying glass)

How to measure fertility?

I Fertility - actual births

I Fertility is a process that evolves over several years (inprinciple, from menarche to menopause)

I Several aspects are potentially of interest - several ways tomeasure it:

1. Number of children at a given age static or2. the parity progressions dynamic (magnifying glass)

How to measure fertility?

I Fertility - actual births

I Fertility is a process that evolves over several years (inprinciple, from menarche to menopause)

I Several aspects are potentially of interest - several ways tomeasure it:

1. Number of children at a given age static or2. the parity progressions dynamic (magnifying glass)

How to measure fertility?

I Fertility - actual births

I Fertility is a process that evolves over several years (inprinciple, from menarche to menopause)

I Several aspects are potentially of interest - several ways tomeasure it:

1. Number of children at a given age static or2. the parity progressions dynamic (magnifying glass)

Determinants for fertility

I Biological factors, health, fecundity

I Factors which potentially influence the (womans) choice(when) to have children

I I will give two examples of the latter: the socioeconomicfactors

1. education and2. labour market attachment

Determinants for fertility

I Biological factors, health, fecundity

I Factors which potentially influence the (womans) choice(when) to have children

I I will give two examples of the latter: the socioeconomicfactors

1. education and2. labour market attachment

Determinants for fertility

I Biological factors, health, fecundity

I Factors which potentially influence the (womans) choice(when) to have children

I I will give two examples of the latter: the socioeconomicfactors

1. education and2. labour market attachment

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tt

X(t)

t t ++ tt

X(t)

t t ++ tt

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X((T)) N((T))

Education and labour market attachmentEffect on fertility?

I Subject of numerous studies in the demographic literature formany years

I Economic and sociological theory provide a theoreticalframework for the underlying mechanisms

I Gary Becker, Nobel Prize (economics) 1992 - A Treatise onthe Family [Becker, 1991]

Education and labour market attachmentEffect on fertility?

I Subject of numerous studies in the demographic literature formany years

I Economic and sociological theory provide a theoreticalframework for the underlying mechanisms

I Gary Becker, Nobel Prize (economics) 1992 - A Treatise onthe Family [Becker, 1991]

Education and labour market attachmentEffect on fertility?

I Subject of numerous studies in the demographic literature formany years

I Economic and sociological theory provide a theoreticalframework for the underlying mechanisms

I Gary Becker, Nobel Prize (economics) 1992 - A Treatise onthe Family [Becker, 1991]

Two examples

Parity transitions

I Labour market attachment

I Norway

I Simultaneuos EquationsModels

I Administrative registerdata:Statistisk Sentralbyra

Ultimate fertility

I Educational attainment

I Denmark

I Marginal StructuralModels

I Administrative registerdata:Danmarks Statistik

Two examples

Parity transitions

I Labour market attachment

I Norway

I Simultaneuos EquationsModels

I Administrative registerdata:Statistisk Sentralbyra

Ultimate fertility

I Educational attainment

I Denmark

I Marginal StructuralModels

I Administrative registerdata:Danmarks Statistik

Two examples

Parity transitions

I Labour market attachment

I Norway

I Simultaneuos EquationsModels

I Administrative registerdata:Statistisk Sentralbyra

Ultimate fertility

I Educational attainment

I Denmark

I Marginal StructuralModels

I Administrative registerdata:Danmarks Statistik

Two examples

Parity transitions

I Labour market attachment

I Norway

I Simultaneuos EquationsModels

I Administrative registerdata:Statistisk Sentralbyra

Ultimate fertility

I Educational attainment

I Denmark

I Marginal StructuralModels

I Administrative registerdata:Danmarks Statistik

Two examples

Parity transitions

I Labour market attachment

I Norway

I Simultaneuos EquationsModels

I Administrative registerdata:Statistisk Sentralbyra

Ultimate fertility

I Educational attainment

I Denmark

I Marginal StructuralModels

I Administrative registerdata:Danmarks Statistik

Overview

Parity transitions in Norway

Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Background

I Transition from being a one-child mother to a two-childmother and from two-child to three-child mother

I How does it depend on her current labour market attachment(employed vs non-employed)?

I Is this relationship possibly different across the parities?

I Do unobserved characteristics of the women play a role?

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Background

I Transition from being a one-child mother to a two-childmother and from two-child to three-child mother

I How does it depend on her current labour market attachment(employed vs non-employed)?

I Is this relationship possibly different across the parities?

I Do unobserved characteristics of the women play a role?

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Background

I Transition from being a one-child mother to a two-childmother and from two-child to three-child mother

I How does it depend on her current labour market attachment(employed vs non-employed)?

I Is this relationship possibly different across the parities?

I Do unobserved characteristics of the women play a role?

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Background

I Transition from being a one-child mother to a two-childmother and from two-child to three-child mother

I How does it depend on her current labour market attachment(employed vs non-employed)?

I Is this relationship possibly different across the parities?

I Do unobserved characteristics of the women play a role?

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Study population

I All women of NO-origin

I whose first child reaches age 15 mths April 1994-Oct 2002

I 19-40 years old at first birth

I registered with a partner at first birth

I no students

I 126608 women

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Study population

I All women of NO-origin

I whose first child reaches age 15 mths April 1994-Oct 2002

I 19-40 years old at first birth

I registered with a partner at first birth

I no students

I 126608 women

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Study population

I All women of NO-origin

I whose first child reaches age 15 mths April 1994-Oct 2002

I 19-40 years old at first birth

I registered with a partner at first birth

I no students

I 126608 women

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Why effect of employment?

I Employment status might influence the decision to have thenext child via several channels:

I Periods away from the labour market are potentially morecostly for women who are currently in a job

1. loss of skills (human capital)2. forgone income

I the right to paid maternity leave

I Can better afford to have a child?

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

Why effect of employment?

I Employment status might influence the decision to have thenext child via several channels:

I Periods away from the labour market are potentially morecostly for women who are currently in a job

1. loss of skills (human capital)2. forgone income

I the right to paid maternity leave

I Can better afford to have a child?

PhD Defense, September 2009

Parity transitions in Norway Ultimate fertility in Denmark

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