socio environmental vulnerability and geotechnologies as ... · socio‐environmental vulnerability...
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Socio‐Environmental Vulnerability and Geotechnologies as Contributions for Risks Cartography
Maria Isabel Castreghini de FreitasUNESP ‐
IGCE, Centre of Analysis and Environmental Planning (CEAPLA) – Rio Claro – SP Brazil CEP 13506‐900
TOPICS
1. Aims
2.Concepts
3. Methodology
4. Results
5. Conclusions
AIMS
• to perform a review of the methodological procedures for the modeling of socio‐
environmental vulnerability using geotechnologies• vulnerability is based on GIS and Statistics, using
factor analysis and principal component analysis for aggregation of statistical socioeconomic and environmental variables derived from census.
This study is the result of research developed in the Laboratory of Spatial Analysis Applied to Public Policies in the CEAPLA/UNESP and is part of the postdoctoral research in CEGOT, under the supervision of Professor Lúcio Cunha, from the University of Coimbra - Portugal.
TOPICS
1. Aims
2.Concepts
3. Methodology
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Vulnerability to Natural Risks
• Dependence on Socio‐environmental Conditions and their differentiated impacts (Cutter, 2012)
Earthquake in Haiti (2010) Earthquake in Chile (2010)
Magnitude 7,0 (Richter scale) Magnitude 8,8
200.000 ‐
250.000 deaths 500 deaths
Vulnerabity
• Emerges as “an idea subjacent to the notion of capacity of answer”
of an environment or population to the risks
(Marandola & Hogan 2004).• the characteristics of a person or group and their situation
that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard (an extreme
natural event or process) (Wisner et al. 2003). • social vulnerability to the natural and technologic risks
incorporates to the standard exposition and biophysical vulnerability evaluations, the resilience
and the
infrastructural support capacities. (Mendes et al. (2009) and Cunha et al. (2011))
VULNERABILITY MODELS AND RISKS CARTOGRAPHY
• Support of Remote Sensing, GIS, GNSS, etc.• Combine
natural hazards, exposition and
vulnerability maps• Define risks zonning for specific areas• Contribute with the public authorities to
designate investments in priority areas
Criticality and Support Capacity
Criticality• set of individual and
behavioral characteristics which can contribute for the
rupture of the System
Support Capacity• set of territorial
infrastructures which allow the community to react to a disaster
TOPICS
1. Aims
2.Concepts
3. Methodology
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Methodological Procedures
• Based on methodologies developed and improved by CUTTER (1996, 2003); MENDES et al.
(2009) e CUNHA et al. (2011)• Socio‐environmental Vulnerability (SEV)
SEV = Criticality x Support Capacity• Factorial Analysis which aggregated social and
environmental variables• Statistic program SPSS R.18 and GIS ArcGIS v.9.3• Municipalities as analysis units
STUDY AREA IN PORTUGAL STUDY AREA IN BRAZIL
Escala 1:6.000.000 Legend
Other Municipalities
Study Area
LegendStudy Area
Other Counties
2. DATA COLLECTION
CENSUS DATA– Brazil: 2000 a 2010– Portugal: 2001 a 2011
•Digital Database from Statistics Institutes: INE –
Portugal and IBGE ‐
Brazil•Municipalities Webpages
CARTOGRAPHY DATA•Portugal and Brazil
Cartographic Intituitions: Environmental Institute
(PT), IBGE and SEADE Foundation (BR)
•Field Observations
Factorial Analysis ‐
SPSS
• Extraction Method: Principal Components Analysis • Rotation Method : Varimax with Kaiser Normalization• Statistics Validation tests: Kolmogorov‐Smirnov and Shapiro‐
Wilk tests (5% significance)
Maps Classification – GIS ArcGIS 9.3
•
Natural Breaks and Manual Classifying
PortugalStatistic Results Criticality Support Capacity
Explanatory Variables 43 41
Factors 5 5
Cumulative Variance (%)
76 73
BrazilStatistic Results Criticality Support Capacity
Explanatory Variables 18 17
Factors 5 5
Cumulative Variance (%)
67 68
TOPICS
1. Aims
2.Concepts
3. Methodology
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Portugal
Main Factors ‐ Portugal
Criticality Suport Capacity
Legendvery low
lowmoderatehighvery high
1.High or Very High Vulnerability
North Sector: Montemor, Soure, Mira e Penacova
South Sector: Alcanena e Porto de Mós.
Low economic development
Limited Enviromental and structural conditions in risk situations.
2. Low and Very Low Vulnerability
Coimbra e Leiria (major urban centres)
Centre and South of study area: Pombal, Marinha Grande, Loulé, Nazaré e Batalha.
Adequated infrastructure and good development
SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY - PortugalSV = Criticality x Support Capacity
Coimbra
Leiria
PombalBatalha
12/06/2012
Alcanena
Figueira da Foz
Nazaré
Montemor-o-Velho
Brazil
Main Factors ‐ Brazil
Criticality Suport Capacity
Legendvery low
low
moderate
high
very high
1. High or Very High Vulnerability:
Municipalities in the interior of the State of São Paulo: Ibiúna, Embu-Guaçu, Juquitiba, São Roque, Piedade e Salto de Pirapora;
Low Socioeconomical Development
Limited Enviromental and structural conditions in risk situations.
2. Low and Very Low Vulnerability :
São Lourenço da Serra and Municipalities in the coastal zone - Mongaguá, Itanhaém and Peruíbe;
Sorocaba e Alumínio
Good socioeconomic status, housing infrastructure and health.
SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY - Brazil
ITANHAEM
MONGAGUÁ
PeruíbeSOROCABA - SP
ALUMÍNIO - SP
VOTORANTIM - SP
PIEDADE - SP
Embu-Guaçu
TOPICS
1. Aims
2.Concepts
3. Methodology
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Portugal BrasilEconomic Contraction Criminality Low Birth Rate High Birth RateRural Exodus Rural Exodus Forest Fire PovertyAging buildings Precarious condition of
housing
Conclusions: Vulnerabilities in Study Areas
CONCLUSIONS: APPLIED METHODOLOGYAccessibility and replicability
of the
methodologyResults close to the geographic knowledge for
most municipalitiesSummary vision of vulnerability
Next step: risk mapping at regional and local scale
Basis for preventive actions related to socio‐ environmental vulnerabilities and risks
REFERENCES
Alves, H. P. F. A. (2006) Vulnerabilidade socioambiental na metrópole paulistana: uma análise sociodemográfica das situações de sobreposição espacial de
problemas e riscos sociais e ambientais. Revista Brasileira de Estudos da População. 23(1):43‐59
Blaikie, P.; Cannon, T., Davis, I. Y Wisner, B. (1994) At risk: Natural hazards, peo‐ ple’s vulnerability and disasters. Routledge, London
Cunha, L.; Mendes, J.M.; Tavares, A.; Freiria, S. (2011) Construção de modelos de avaliação de vulnerabilidade social a riscos naturais e tecnológicos. O desafio das escalas. In: Santos, N.; Cunha, L. (org.) Trunfos de uma Geografia Activa. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra
Cutter, S.L. (1996) Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Progress in Human Geography 20(4): 529‐539
Cutter, S.L. (2012) A Ciência da Vulnerabilidade: modelos, métodos e indicadores. Revista Crítica de Ciências Sociais. 93(1): 59‐70
Danke sehr! Thank you!
[email protected] author wishes to thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)
aid granted to attend the event.