Should the U.S. press for

a return to the

Six Party Talks?

Meredith Lamberti

What are the Six Party Talks?

Members: United States Russia Japan China North Korea South Korea

Goal: to end the North Korean nuclear program through a negotiation process.

Timeline 1994: North Korea/U.S. agreement

North Korea pledges to freeze and eventually dismantle nuclear weapons in return for 2 power-producing nuclear reactors

1998: North Korea fires a missile over Japan, into the Pacific Ocean

1999: North Korea pledges to freeze long-range missile tests

2000: North Korea threatens to restart nuclear program

June 2001: North Korea warns it will reconsider lifting the freeze on missile testing

July 2001: US State Department reports that North Korea is developing long-range missiles.

Jan. 2002: President Bush labels North Korea, Iran, & Iraq an “Axis of Evil”

Timeline Sept. 2002: North Korea pledges with Japan to extend the freeze on missile

testing

Oct. 2002: North Korea tells US delegation it has a second covert nuclear program

Jan. 2003: North Korea says it will withdraw from Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

April 2003: US, China, and North Korea announce talks in Beijing

April 2003: North Korea announces it has nuclear weapons and may test, export, or use them depending upon US actions

Aug. 2003: North Korea joins the first round of Six Party Talks

Feb. 2004: Second round of Six Party Talks

May 2004: North Korea reaffirms it’s missile testing freeze in talks with Japan

Timeline

June 2004: Third round of Six Party Talks

Sept. 2004: North Korea threatens not to attend the fourth round of talks

Feb. 2005: North Korea announces it has nuclear weapons

May 2005: North Korea fires short-range missile into Sea of Japan

July – Aug. 2005: Fourth round of Six Party Talks. North Korea was in attendance

Sept. 2005: North Korea pledges to dismantle nuclear programs in return for pledges of energy assistance.

Nov. 2005: Fifth round of Six Party Talks

Timeline

July 2006: North Korea fires 7 missiles into Sea of Japan

Oct. 2006: North Korea declares that it conducted first nuclear test

Feb. 2007: Sixth round of Six Party Talks

July 2007: North Korea closes down a nuclear reactor after the US returns the transfer of previously frozen funds

July 2007: Seventh round of Six Party Talks

Sept. 2007: North Korea pledges to disclose all nuclear activities and disable nuclear programs by end of 2007

Jan 2008: North Korea fails to fulfill its promise to disclose all nuclear programs

Timeline

June 2008: North Korea destroys the cooling tower at Yongbyon nuclear facility

July 2008: Eighth round of Six Party Talks

Sept 2008: North Korea announces plans to restart nuclear programs and bans international inspectors from Yongbyon

Oct 2008: President Bush removes North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism

Oct. 2008: North Korea resumes tearing down Yongbyon and removes ban on international inspectors

April 2009: North Korea launches a long-range missile over Japan. The UN Security Council condemns the launch and broadens sanctions against the country

Timeline

April 2009: North Korea expels inspectors from the country and vows to never return to Six Party Talks

May 2009: North Korea explodes nuclear device underground

Jan. 2010: North Korea calls for end to hostile relations with the US and vows to strive for a nuclear-free peninsula

Feb. 2010: North Korea declares 4 areas near disputed sea border with South Korea to be naval firing zones

March 2010: Sinking of South Korean warship

July 2010: US announces new sanctions on North Korea in response to warship sinking

Timeline

Aug. 2010: Kim Jong-il visits China; both countries push to resume Six Party Talks

Sept. 2010: President Obama signs new sanctions against North Korea into law.

Nov. 2010: North Korea shows visiting American nuclear scientist a new, secretly-built uranium enriching facility

Nov. 2010: Cross-border clash between North and South Korea South: North fired on border island; resulted in death of 2 marines North: South began firing first One of the worst clashes between the two countries since the Korean

War

Six Party Talks

Accomplishments Sept. 2005 Agreement

North Korea pledges to eventually abandon quest to become nuclear power

Denuclearization Plan Feb. 2007 Yongbyon plant 2008: release of

documents

Pitfalls North Korea has continued to

fire missiles over/near Japan

Stop-and-go negotiations; unpredictability of North Korea

Multiple missile tests

Document left out details

Warship sinking

November clashes with South Korea

US Stance

Since North Korea walked out of 2009 talks, President Obama has pursued negotiations with the other parties

Doubts that multi-lateral talks will produce results; bilateral talks between the US and North Korea may produce the best/quickest results

Dec. 1: “We are not interested in talks, and talks are no substitute for having North Korea fulfills its international obligations, meet its commitments and cease provocations…As North Korea demonstrates a willingness to do that, then we will act accordingly” (State Department spokesman Philip Crowley)

Until North Korea shows a responsible attitude toward recent provocation, the stalled talks will not be resumed

Option OneThe U.S. should push to NOT return to Six Party

TalksPros:

North Korea needs to be held responsible for its actions

Country has a past of aggressive action prompting negotiations; this isn’t a trend we should continue

North Korea’s end goals in the talks are a pledge of nonaggression from the US and aid from other parties

Cons:

Doesn’t help anyone achieve their goals, not just North Korea

Kim Jong-il is already unpredictable; no guarantee that not negotiating with him make the country take responsibility or change their actions

Results in a standstill where nothing will change

Option TwoThe U.S. shouldn’t push for a return to the

talks, but also shouldn’t rule out the option of talks in the future

Pros:

Places pressure on North Korea to take responsibility for their actions and change their behavior, but offers an incentive if they do

Leave open the option for bi-lateral as well as multi-lateral talks

South Korea isn’t interested in resuming the talks; China is

Cons:

Under what circumstances would the U.S. be willing to return to the talks?

Not pushing for a return to the Six Party Talks but holding bi-lateral talks with North Korea could undermine the other countries in the group

Option ThreeThe U.S. should push for an immediate return

to the talksPros:

Could show that the U.S. is serious about reaching a solution

There is no guarantee that North Korea will change their behavior without a negotiation process

Multi-lateral talks will decrease North Korea’s feeling that the U.S. and South Korea are teaming up against them

Cons:

Continuation of past trends where North Korea acts aggressively and the other parties make concessions

South Korea has no interest in returning to Six Party Talks this early

The success of the previous meetings of the Six Party Talks is questionable

My Decision – Option Two

Gives the United States the most options

North Korea can be unpredictable; gives us the option to pursue multi or bi-lateral talks depending on how the climate changes

Puts some pressure on North Korea to change their behavior without either seeming like we are bending to their will or refusing to negotiate