sior tri-state conference financing panel intro
TRANSCRIPT
“Show Us the Money” 2015 Commercial Real Estate Capital
Market Report
SIOR Tri-‐State Regional Conference 20 March, 2015
Moderated by Gabriel Silverstein President, Angelic Real Estate
The fear: large loan maturity volume in 2015-‐2017 from peak-‐of-‐market loans, parLcularly CMBS loans, is high risk to market stability.
Horror story, or really just another Y2K?
Source: MBA
Annual Com
mercial/M
ulLfamily Loan M
aturity volume
The MBA/CREF SenLment
Lending environment very compeLLve, but lenders very afraid of where underwriLng is now and is going.
Source: MBA CREF Forecast
CMBS is Back…but Not yet Like the Rest
Source: MBA Annual Commercial/MulLfamily Mortgage OriginaLon SummaLon
Cap Rates vs. Interest Rates
• Cap rates sLll at relaLve high spreads vs. treasuries • Interest rate rises will not increase cap rates (on mulL-‐
tenant properLes), cap rates could even conLnue to fall.
Graph
created
using US Treasury Dep
t. web
site
Beware!: key index rates conLnue to trend downward in all economic cycle stages and the Fed has li_le room to move rates down in the
future to counter negaLve economic headwinds
The Fed Has No Room to Squeeze
Two Year Nominal Treasury Rates
10 Year Nominal Treasury Rates
2 Yr / 10 Yr Yield Spread
But Rates are Unlikely To Rise Near Term
How much can the world’s baseline “risk free” investment give in higher yield than the compeLLon?
Source: Fed
eral Reserve (FRE
D), CN
BC
Financing Panelists Mario DiCerbo: SVP Market Manager, Downtown NYC/Brooklyn, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Michael Pierro: Senior Managing Director, C-‐III Commercial Mortgage
Daniel Miller: Co-‐Founder & President, Fundrise
John Randall: Managing Director, PCCP
Karen Kozlowski: Partner, Thompson Hine