"single cmo" management committee market situation for sheep & goat 18 april 2013 eu...
TRANSCRIPT
"Single CMO" Management CommitteeMarket situation for Sheep & Goat
18 April 2013
EU SHEEP and GOAT Meat Market Situation
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 2
Sheep Balance sheet 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012/11 2013/12
Slaughter (Tonne) 986.915 915.243 929.127 901.135 904.723 -3,0% 0,4%
Live import 4 10 150 0 0 -99,8%
Live export 3.725 10.904 21.692 26.342 27.000 21,4% 2,5%
GIP 990.636 926.137 950.668 927.477 931.723 -2,4% 0,5%
Meat import 271.440 239.163 221.603 189.298 195.000 -14,6% 3,0%
Meat export 7.730 13.131 15.805 25.370 25.000 60,5% -1,5%
Internal use 1.250.625 1.141.276 1.134.925 1.065.062 1.074.723 -6,2% 0,9%
Consumption (kg/ cap) 2,5 2,3 2,3 2,1 2,1 -6,4% 0,6%
Self suff. In % 79,2% 81,1% 83,8% 87,1% 86,7% 4,0% -0,4%
Price heavy (€/100kg) 412 436 498 498 521 0,0% 4,6%
Price Light (€/100kg) 638 584 591 600 604 1,6% 0,7%
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 3
250
350
450
550
650
750
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
€ur
o / 1
00kg
Development of the EU average market price for Heavy and Light Lamb carcases
Light lamb
Heavy Lamb
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 4
350
400
450
500
550
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
€uro
/100kg
Heavy Lamb prices in the EU2010 - 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 5
500
550
600
650
700
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
€uro
/100kg
Light Lamb prices in the EU2010 - 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 6
2009S1 2010S1 2011S1 2012S1 2013S1 2009S2 2010S2 2011S2 2012S2 2013S2
total 36 158 34 813 34 785 35 325 34 801 31 815 32 060 30 626 31 081 30 869
goat 4 943 4 909 4 881 5 059 4 829 2 661 2 799 2 563 2 696 2 536
sheep 31 216 29 904 29 905 30 266 29 972 29 153 29 260 28 063 28 386 28 332
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Axi
s Ti
tle
GIP Production forecast in the Sheep & Goat sector13 MSs
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 7
985
985
971
1 0
21
949
748
717
730
707
714
179157
178178 178
75 73 6872
7860
5959 54 51
27
8
25
6
26
3
22
6
22
6
22
2
17
5
15
5
11
1
11
1
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sh
ee
p C
arc
as
e w
eig
ht
in K
G
in 1
00
0 T
on
ne
s
Sheep and Goat meat supply in the EU2003 = EU 15 2004 = EU 25 2007 = EU 27
sheep Non official goat Imp - Exp (Pw) Cw Heavy Cw light
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU 1 059.980 1 058.470 1 039.060 1 093.649 1 026.970 986.916 933.160 967.299 939.548 943.136
UK 314.406 331.593 330.189 324.843 325.744 302.716 281.027 289.506 276.055 284.493
España 246.975 238.600 238.250 227.081 166.239 133.254 133.986 142.119 133.090 133.264
0
300
600
900
Sheep & Goatmeat production inthe EU, UK and Spain in '000 Tonnes
official slaughter onlyEU
UK
España
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 9
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lamb production in the UK and Spain compaired to "Others" in 1000 Tonns
Other UK ES
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 10
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
de ie gr es fr it uk Other
Breakdown of Slaughter in Headsin % of EU Total sheep & goat slaughter - 2012
Goat
sheep
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 11
150
250
350
450
550
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
€u
ro
/ 1
00
kg
Community average and international market prices for Heavy Lamb carcases
EU 27 avg. Heavy lamb Uruguay N. Zealand (avg N&S island)
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 12
300.00
500.00
700.00
900.00
1100.00
1300.00
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
NZ$/
100kg
New Zealand lamb and wool prices(NZ Farmers weekly)
North Island lamb YM-13.5 North Island lamb YX-17.5 South Island lamb YM-13.5
South Island lamb YX-17.5 Wool 25 μ Wool 37 μ
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 13
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I
1 E
uro
= ..
...…
Nw
. Z
ea
lan
d $
Exchange rate NZ$ & AUS$ - Euroquotation: 1st day of the month
NZ$
AUS$
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/inforeuro/index.cfm
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 14
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I
Exchange rate NZ$ & UK£ - EuroPercentual change: I/2004 = 100
NZ$ UK£http://ec.europa.eu/budget/inforeuro/index.cfm
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 15
EU imports of sheep & goat and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
OriginsOriginstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
New Zealand 240 921 83.5% 211 349 82.8% 192 907 82.4% 169 567 84.9% 28 286 86.3%
Australia 23 359 8.1% 22 046 8.6% 21 099 9.0% 17 554 8.8% 3 459 10.6%
Uruguay 5 722 2.0% 4 533 1.8% 4 975 2.1% 3 441 1.7% 443 1.4%
Chile 5 727 2.0% 5 856 2.3% 5 317 2.3% 3 225 1.6% 295 0.9%
Argentina 7 610 2.6% 5 982 2.3% 4 301 1.8% 1 942 1.0% 212 0.6%
For.JRep.Mac 2 598 0.9% 2 173 0.9% 2 574 1.1% 2 024 1.0% 48 0.1%
Iceland 2 047 0.7% 2 382 0.9% 2 073 0.9% 1 102 0.6% 22 0.1%
Falkland Is. 479 0.2% 532 0.2% 607 0.3% 616 0.3% 0 0.0%EXTRA EU15-25-27 288 621 255 117 234 136 199 750 32 775
% change - 11.6% - 8.2% - 14.7% + 22.5%
2009 2010 2011 Jan-Feb 132012
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 16
EU imports of sheep & goat and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
30 727
24 10228 286
3 906
1 595
3 459
36 423
26 753
32 775
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan-Feb 11 Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13
To
nn
es
cwe
IMPORTS of Sheet & Goat into EU(Tonnes cwe)
New Zealand Australia Argentina Uruguay Chile Other Origins
143 264 135 795 127 374
18 6339 649
12 426
169 811
150 713143 415
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
Jan-Feb 11 Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13
1,00
0 E
UR
IMPORTS of Sheep & Goat into EU (1000 EUR)
New Zealand Australia Argentina Uruguay Chile Other Origins
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 17
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
|Jan 06
2006 |Jan 07
2007 |Jan 08
2008 |Jan 09
2009 |Jan 10
2010 |Jan 11
2011 |Jan 12
2012 |Jan 13
in T
on
ne
s c
we
Imports of Sheep & Goat products
FRESH FROZEN OTHERS
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 18
EU exports of sheep & goat and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
DestinationsDestinations
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
Hong Kong 616 4.4% 1 350 5.0% 4 404 10.6% 14 014 24.8% 3 040 32.4%
Sw itzerland 1 404 10.0% 2 213 8.2% 2 661 6.4% 2 839 5.0% 758 8.1%
Lebanon 1 460 10.4% 2 418 8.9% 2 774 6.7% 2 336 4.1% 703 7.5%
Jordan 352 2.5% 4 408 16.2% 5 235 12.6% 5 836 10.3% 313 3.3%
Turkey 77 0.5% 4 029 14.8% 12 788 30.8% 3 081 5.5% 134 1.4%
Vietnam 2 563 18.3% 3 008 11.1% 3 405 8.2% 1 744 3.1% 25 0.3%EXTRA EU15-25-27 14 032 27 142 41 526 56 425 9 392
% change + 93% + 53% + 36% + 107.8%
2009 2010 2011 Jan-Feb 132012
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 19
EU exports of sheep & goat and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
1 086
3 040
3 038
482
64
703
418
424
758
1 9131 901
1 720
5 2794 520
9 392
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
Jan-Feb 11 Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13
Ton
nes
cw
EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (Tonnes cwe)
Hong Kong Libya Lebanon Switzerland Turkey Other destinations
5 042
15 653
3 378
3 661
4 684
4 1285 831
5 200
19 12517 216
33 604
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan-Feb 11 Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13
1,00
0 E
UR
EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (1000 EUR)
Hong Kong Libya Lebanon Switzerland Turkey Other destinations
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 20
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
|Jan 06
2006 |Jan 07
2007 |Jan 08
2008 |Jan 09
2009 |Jan 10
2010 |Jan 11
2011 |Jan 12
2012 |Jan 13
in T
on
ne
s c
we
Exports of Sheep & Goat products
FRESH FROZEN LIVE OTHERS
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Total 2010 =652 950 H
Total 2011 =1 471 259 H
Total 2012 =1 624 412 H
II / 2013 =188 854 H
Export of live lamb and sheep by destination in heads
Other
Lebanon
Libya
Jordan
Turkey
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 22
0
40.000
80.000
120.000
160.000
200.000
240.000
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013
Export of live sheep, in headsexcluding pure-bred breeding
A = LIVE LAMBS "SHEEP UP TO A YEAR OLD"
B = LIVE SHEEP excl. A
2010 = 652 933 heads2011 = 1 467 049heads2012 = 1 624 412heads
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 23
EU Sheep and Goat Meat Trade Balance, tonnes cwe
27
1 0
34
28
2 6
24
28
0 8
84
27
9 7
74
28
1 7
28
29
2 8
04
29
8 0
57
29
6 2
39
30
7 0
25
28
9 8
55
29
7 3
81
30
2 5
77
28
4 9
27
28
4 7
78
28
8 6
21
25
5 1
17
23
4 1
36
19
9 7
50
32
77
5
6 9
83
7 9
93
4 1
98
4 2
32
4 7
94
5 6
10
6 2
07
6 7
53
6 5
50
6 6
83
7 1
27
6 0
97
10
82
4
9 9
51
14
03
2
27
14
2
41
52
6
56
42
5
9 3
92
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan-Feb13
To
nn
es c
we
IMPORTS EXPORTS
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 24
Annual quota
Balance (remaining
amount)
Actual import
Balance (remaining
amount)
Actual import
Balance (remaining
amount)
Actual import
Argentina 09.2011 23.000 22.849 151 22.794 206 22.693 307Australia 09.2012 19.186 16.492 2.694 15.401 3.785 14.122 5.064New Zealand
09.2013 228.254 210.689 17.565 190.964 37.290 173.464 54.790
Uruguay 09.2014 5.800 5.580 220 5.266 534 5.090 710Chile 09.1922 6.800 6.740 60 6.606 194 6.341 459Norway 09.0781 300 300 0 300 0 300 0Greenland 09.0693 100 100 0 100 0 100 0Faeroes 09.0690 20 20 0 20 0 20 0Turkey 09.0227 200 200 0 200 0 200 0Others 09.2015 200 200 0 200 0 200 0Erga Omnes
09.2016 200 73 127 0 200 0 200
0104 10 300104 10 80 00104 20 90
286.051 265.184 20.867 243.790 42.212 224.455 61.547
1.832 18
92
Period: 01/01/2013 - 12/04/2013
TOTAL
Period: 01/01/2013 - 15/02/2012
Period: 01/01/2013 - 19/03/2012
1.850 1.848 209.0790 1.846 4
3Erga Omnes
09.2019 92 92 0 92 0
1 0204
2
0204 0210 99 210210 99 290210 99 60
Iceland
UTILISATION OF SHEEPMEAT AND GOATMEAT TARIFF QUOTAS IN EU-27 : January > December 2013
COUNTRY GROUP No
CN CODES ORIGINORDER
NUMBER
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 25
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Actual and Forecasted prices for Heavy and Light lamb
EU Heavy FC
EU_H
EU Light FC
EU_L
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 26
-40,0%
-30,0%
-20,0%
-10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
1-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-199 200-499 > 500
Eurofarm Structure survey 2007 - 2010% of Sheep in the total flock and their change in the EU
% of the flock Change in class flock size
DG AGRI, Management Committee – 18 April 2013 27
0
100
200
300
400
EU27
BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK eu15
eu12
Eurofarm Structure survey 2007 - 2010Average Sheep flock per holding by Member State
Anim/ Hold 2007 Anim/ Hold 2010