simulation modeling for foresight analysis and ex-ante impact assessment in potato and sweetpotato
DESCRIPTION
This presentation comes from a seminar about work carried out in the scope of the Global Futures for Agriculture and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project. It was held on 24 April, 2014 at the International Potato Center (CIP) in Lima, Peru. Global Futures for Agriculture and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) is a multi-center CGIAR research collaboration with the objective of developing and applying an integrated simulation modeling framework for the comprehensive analysis of trends and technology impacts in the CGIAR mandate crops and systems. The core component of the modeling framework is the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), an economic partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. IMPACT has the capability of generating forward looking global analyses of supply, demand, prices and trade of 56 agricultural commodities in 320 geographic regions, taking into account major drivers like economic growth, population dynamics, and climate change. For the ex ante assessment of the impact of new crop technologies, the model can be linked to a geospatial crop modeling system which, via the process of “virtual crop modeling”, allows the estimation of productivity effects under alternate scenarios of climate change. The objective of the seminar was to introduce the GFSF project to the CIP audience, to inform about the work carried out at CIP under the umbrella of the project over the past four years, and to present an outlook on future project activities. Following an introduction to the analytical approach, examples of applications of the modeling framework are given. These applications include foresight studies of crop sector development, ex ante modeling of the impacts of promising technologies for potato production based on expert opinion, and integrated bio-economic modeling of improved potato technologies. It is argued that the approach developed and applied by GFSF represents a powerful tool to produce foresight studies and inform about the future development of potato, sweetpotato and other root, tubers and bananas (RTB) crop sectors. Its advantages include a comprehensive systems approach which takes into account major driving forces of the development of the agricultural sector, natural resources and climate change in a multi-crop, multi-country setting as well as its ability to analyze aspects of food security.TRANSCRIPT
Simulation modeling for foresight analysis and ex ante impact assessment
in potato and sweetpotato
Ulrich KleinwechterInternational Potato Center (CIP), Lima
24 April 2014
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Outline
1. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight2. The Approach3. Applications4. Conclusions and Outlook
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1. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight
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Background and motivation
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• Substantial future challenges for agriculture in the developing world (CGIAR, 2011)
– Growing demand for agricultural products– Rising and volatile food prices– Increasing pressure on natural resources– Climate change and variability
• Need for international agricultural research and technology development
• Limited availability of funding calls for impact analyses for priority assessment
Objectives
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• Provide tools to • Assess future development of CGIAR mandate crops on a global,
regional and national scale.• Assist international agricultural research centers, development
agencies, and national governments in strategic planning and investment decisions
• Assist the CGIAR in making strategic decisions on research needs and resource allocations thereby help to do a better job of allocating resources to activities that have the greatest benefits.
• For us: Increase visibility of potato, sweetpotato and other RTB in global foresight studies
Setup of the project
• Collaboration of 12 centers of the CGIAR and external partners
• Lead by IFPRI• Launched in 2009, CIP joined 2010• Funding from PIM, CCAFS and
BMGF• Structure
• Core unit at IFPRI• Project leader (Keith Wiebe, IFPRI)
• Center teams• Advisory Committee at CIP
2. The Approach
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2. Method
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• Partial-equilibrium economic model of the global agricultural sector• 56 agricultural commodities• 159 regions and 154 water basins, which combine into 320 “food production units”• Regions connected to each other via trade, with endogenous world market prices determining domestic producer and consumer prices• Projection horizon: 2005-2050• Malnutrition module for food security indicators
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IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
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IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Socio-economic scenarios
Climate change scenarios
11
IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Socio-economic scenarios
Promising TechnologiesPromising Technologies
Climate change scenarios
12
IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Socio-economic scenarios
Promising TechnologiesPromising Technologies
Food security, economic welfare, returns on investmentWELFARE ANALYSISWELFARE ANALYSIS
Climate change scenarios
13
IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Socio-economic scenarios
Promising TechnologiesPromising Technologies
Food security, economic welfare, returns on investmentWELFARE ANALYSISWELFARE ANALYSIS
Climate change scenarios
ExpertopinionExpert
opinionOthersOthers Plant genetics Management practices
Soil conditions
Climatic conditions
DSSAT Crop ModelingDSSAT Crop Modeling
Yield projections
Yield projections
Virtual crops
Virtual crops
3. Applications
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3. Applications: Foresight studies of crop sector development
Examples:•Potatoes in Latin America•Trends in RTB contributions to food security
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IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Socio-economic scenarios
• Potatoes in Latin America
Source: Scott and Kleinwechter (forthcoming)16
Source: Scott and Kleinwechter (forthcoming)17
Source: IMPACT3 simulations18
• Contributions to food security
3. Applications: Ex ante modeling of technology impacts• RTB priority assessment
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IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Promising TechnologiesPromising Technologies
ExpertopinionExpert
opinion
Research option Short name Link RTB flagships
Seed systems: improving seed production and distribution
Potato seed systems
PO1 – “3G” (three generations approach)CC4 – Framework for analyzing and intervening in RTB seed systems
Development of potato varieties resistant to Bacterial Wilt
Bacterial wilt resistant varieties
CC4 – Framework for analyzing and intervening in RTB seed systems
Development of virus resistant potato varieties (PVY, PLRV, PVS, PVX)
Virus resistant varieties
CC4 – Framework for analyzing and intervening in RTB seed systems
Development of Late Blight resistant potato varieties
Late blight resistant varieties
DI1 – RTB transformational breeding platform utilizing genomics, metobolomics, and phenomics
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21Source: IMPACT3 simulations
22Source: IMPACT3 simulations
23Source: IMPACT3 simulations
3. Integrated bio-economic modeling of improved technologies
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IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Socio-economic scenarios
Promising TechnologiesPromising Technologies
Economic welfare, returns on investmentWELFARE ANALYSISWELFARE ANALYSIS
DSSAT Crop ModelingDSSAT Crop Modeling
Yield projections
Yield projections
Virtual crops
Virtual crops
Plant genetics Management practices
Soil conditions
Climatic conditions
• Drought tolerant potatoes in SSA
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• Introduced to nine target countries in SSA, adoption ceilings: 5%-30%
• Project duration 12 years, variety release 2020• Total cost: 9.1 m US$• One CC scenario: MIROC A1B 369• Two technology scenarios:
• Drought tolerance • From crop model:
• Ø 2.5% yield advantage across target regions and 80 random weathers in 2050
• Drought tolerance + 10% higher yields • Ø 12.5% yield advantage
EthiopiaUganda
Rwanda
Burundi
DR Congo
Kenya
Tanzania
MozambiqueMalawi
Picture source: Theisen and Thiele (2008).
Source: Kleinwechter (2013)
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Cha
nge
agai
nst b
asel
ine
[%]
Source: IMPACT2 simulations, Kleinwechter (2013)
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NPV
[m
US$
at 2
000
cons
tant
pric
es]
Source: IMPACT2 simulations, Kleinwechter (2013)
28Source: IMPACT2 simulations, Kleinwechter (2013)
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NPV
[m
US$
at 2
000
cons
tant
pric
es]
Source: IMPACT2 simulations, Kleinwechter (2013)
• To be done.
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IMPACT Economic Modeling
IMPACT Economic Modeling
Food demand and supply Prices and trade
Promising TechnologiesPromising Technologies
OthersOthers
Food security, economic welfare, returns on investmentWELFARE ANALYSISWELFARE ANALYSIS
3. Combining IMPACT with other modeling approaches
4. Conclusions and Outlook
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4. Conclusions and Outlook• Potential:– Powerful tool to produce foresight studies and inform
about future development of potato, sweetpotato and RTB crop sectors
– Comprehensive systems approach:• Major driving forces: Population, economic development• Natural resources: Land, water, climate change• Supply and demand• Multi-crop, multi-country • Food security
– Tool for ex ante impact assessment: SO 1 to SO 4, contributions to SO5
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• Achievements :– Systematization and selection of promising technologies in potato and
sweetpotato– Improvements of IMPACT model:
• LAC potato baseline: Changes in growth rate data, elasticity data, update of crop production data base (Scott and Kleinwechter, under review CEPAL Review)
• Disaggregation sweetpotato/yam
– Improvements in potato crop modeling• Calibration of modern cultivars• Potato crop model improvements• Global potato crop model simulations
– Various applications for technology analysis– Integrative function of the project
• Within CIP across disciplinary borders: SHS, GECI, PSE• With RTB: Priority assessment• Within CGIAR across centers
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• Outlook– Baseline projections for potato, sweetpotato and other RTB
with IMPACT• Expected future trajectories of yield, area and demand• Update of Scott and Rosegrant (2000) projections
– Crop modeling• Collaboration with breeders on potato crop modeling• Potato model improvements• Development of sweetpotato model• Improvement of geospatial crop model simulations: Climate change impacts
on potato and sweetpotato under alternative technology assumptions
– Use of other inputs for technology analyses with IMPACT• Late blight models, virus models, …
– Development of new technology impact analyses
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Thank you...
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Reports and publications (GFSF):•Gastelo, M., Kleinwechter, U., Bonierbale, M. (2014). Global Potato Research for a Changing World. Social Sciences Working Document No. 2014-1, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru. In press.•Raymundo, R., Kleinwechter, U., Asseng, S., (2014). Virtual potato crop modeling: A comparison of genetic coefficients of the DSSAT-SUBSTOR potato model with breeding goals for developing countries. ZENODO. http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7687 •Kleinwechter, U. (2013), Crop Technology Technical Brief – Heat and drought tolerant potatoes for Asia. Global Futures for Agriculture Project technical document.•Kleinwechter, U. and Suarez, V. (2013). Really a nontraded commodity? A look at the international potato trade network (dataset and R code). ZENODO. http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7593 •Kleinwechter, U., S. Asseng, M. Gastelo, J. Ritchie and J. Nelson (2013), Virtual crop modeling for technology impact assessment - lessons from a potato crop growth model. In: Tielkes, E. (ed.), Agricultural development within the rural urban continuum: book of abstracts; [Sept. 17 - 19, 2013, University of Hohenheim] / Tropentag 2013, International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development, p. 367. http://www.tropentag.de/abstract.php?code=lbSf4svk •Kleinwechter, U. (2013), Global integrated bio-economic modeling - A toolkit for the assessment of priorities for international agricultural research. Presentation at the FSC in dialog seminar, Food Security Center, University of Hohenheim, Germany, 16 September 2013. http://fsc.uni-hohenheim.de/fileadmin/einrichtungen/fsc/FSC_in_Dialog/previous_FSC_in_dialog/2013/FSC-in-dialog-16-Sep-2013.pdf •Kleinwechter, U., G. Hareau, M. Bonierbale, M. Gastelo, and D. Harahagazwe (2013), Ex-ante evaluation of improved potato varieties for Sub-Saharan Africa. Paper presented at the 9th Triennial Conference of the African Potato Association, 30 June – 4 July 2013, Naivasha, Kenya. Currently under review for publication in an edited volume “African potato and sweetpotato value chains: Transformations for food security and income”, CABI. http://perspectivesandforesight.wordpress.com/2013/07/ , http://www.slideshare.net/ulikik/presentation-apa2013-01072013 •Kleinwechter, U. (2013), “Potato crop modeling for technology impact assessment”. Presentation held at the AgSystems Seminar of the Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, 24 January 2013.•Rosegrant, M. and the IMPACT Development Team (2012), International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Model Description. Washington D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).•Kleinwechter, U. and V. Suarez (2012), Really a nontraded commodity? A look at the international potato trade network. Blog post. http://perspectivesandforesight.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/really-a-nontraded-commodity-a-look-at-the-international-potato-trade-network/ •Kleinwechter, U., C. Gonzalez, D. Enahoro, N. Swamikannu, S. Gbegbelegbe, B. Creamer, K. Mottaleb and G. Nelson (2012), Agricultural technologies, climate change and food security in the developing world: Integrating global biophysical and economic modeling. Presentation at the Organized Symposium “Bio-economic modeling to assess options for enhancing agricultural development and food security under climate change in the developing world” International Association of Agricultural Economists 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. •Kleinwechter, U. (2012), Global impacts of targeted interventions in food security crops – the case of potatoes in developing countries. Poster paper presented at the International Association of Agricultural Economists 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. http://purl.umn.edu/125735 •Kleinwechter, U., Bonierbale, M. and M. Gastelo (2011), Calibration of modern potato varieties in DSSAT using potato yield trial data. GF project report.
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Reports and publications (other CIP projects):•Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., Pradel, W., Suarez, V., Okello, J., Surjit, V., 2014. Strategic Assessment of Research Priorities for Potato. CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas for Food Security and Income (RTB) Final Report, April 2014, Lima, Peru.•Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., Pradel, W., Suarez, V., Okello, J., Surjit, V., 2014. Strategic Assessment of Research Priorities for Sweetpotato. CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas for Food Security and Income (RTB) Final Report, April 2014, Lima, Peru.•Kleinwechter, U., G. Hareau and V. Suarez (2014), Prioritization of options for potato research for development – Results from a global expert survey. Report to the CRP RTB, February 2014.•Kleinwechter, U., G. Hareau and V. Suarez (2014), Prioritization of options for sweetpotato research for development – Results from a global expert survey. Report to the CRP RTB, February 2014.•Rusike, J, T. Abdoulaye, U. Kleinwechter, B. Creamer, D. Pemsl, H. Kirscht and G. Hareau (2012), Priorities for a global cassava research program to improve food security and incomes in developing countries: A survey of experts. Presentation at the 16th International Symposium of the International Society for Tuber & Root Crops (ISTRC), September 23 – 28, 2012, Abeokuta, Nigeria. •Kleinwechter, U., T. Abdoulaye, R. Andrade, B. Creamer, H. Garming, G.Hareau, J. Rusike, C. Staver (2012), Una estrategia para la definición de prioridades de investigación en papa para el CRP-RTB. Presentation at the XXV Congreso de la Asociación Latinoamericana de la Papa – ALAP, September 17 – 20, 2012, Uberlandia, Brazil. •Rusike, J, T. Abdoulaye, B. Creamer, R. Andrade, H. Garming, C. Staver, U. Kleinwechter and G. Hareau (2012), A strategy for defining research priorities. Presentation at the Second Scientific Conference of the Global Cassava Partnership for the 21st Century - GCP21-II -Kampala, Uganda 18-22 June 2012.
Other publications:•Kleinwechter, U. and H. Grethe (2014), National wage trends and migration in a Chinese village economy - A micro level modeling approach based on a composite utility function. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. In press. •Kleinwechter, U. and H. Grethe (2012), Trade policy impacts under alternative land market regimes in rural China. China Economic Review, Vol. 23, 1-19. •Kleinwechter, U. and H. Grethe (2012), Policy impacts under alternative land market regimes in rural China. Poster paper presented at the International Association of Agricultural Economists 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.•Kleinwechter, U. (2012), Rural-urban migration in China: An analytical framework of migrants' contributions to rural development. Journal of Alternative Perspectives in the Social Sciences, Vol. 3 (1). •Schüttel, C., U. Kleinwechter, R. Ihle and H. Grethe (2011), Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics, Vol. 112(2), 125-139. •Luckmann, J., R. Ihle, H. Grethe and U. Kleinwechter (2011), Can Vietnamese Upland Farmers Profit from High World Market Prices? A Price Transmission Analysis. Contributed paper at the European Association of Agricultural Economists 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland.•Kleinwechter, U. and H. Grethe (2011), Trade reform, migration, and a Chinese village economy. Contributed paper at the European Association of Agricultural Economists 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland.