simulation experiments of typhoons and …...simulation experiments of typhoons and tornadoes using...

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Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction 2. Cloud Resolving Strom Simulator (CReSS) 3. Numerical experiment of Toyohashi tornado 4. Simulations of Typhoon 0613 and tornado 5. Summary The First International Workshop on Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters in Southeast Asia Kazuhisa Tsuboki Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center (HyARC), Nagoya University

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Page 1: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using

the Cloud-Resolving Model

Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, JapanMarch 3 - 5, 2008

1. Introduction2. Cloud Resolving Strom Simulator (CReSS)3. Numerical experiment of Toyohashi tornado4. Simulations of Typhoon 0613 and tornado5. Summary

The First International Workshop on Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters in Southeast Asia

Kazuhisa TsubokiHydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center (HyARC),

Nagoya University

Page 2: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Tornadoes and waterspouts are a violently rotating air below a convective cloud. Both are called “tatsumaki” in Japanese.

About 20 % of tatsumakis occur in association with typhoons in Japan. More than 60 % in the western Japan in warm season.

Even through a typhoon center is located in the distance, a tatsumaki occasionally causes a severe disaster due to wind.

For simulation of convective clouds and storms, we have been developing a cloud resolving model named “CReSS” (the Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator).

Intense tatsumakis occurred in Toyohashi City on September 24, 1999 and in Nobeoka City on September 17, 2006.

Using the CReSS model, we studied supercell storms and tatsumakis in association with typhoons.

Introduction

Page 3: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

CReSS is formulated on the basis of the non-hydrostatic and compressible equation system.Coordinate system is a terrain-following in a two or three dimensional domain. Finite difference method is used for the spatial representation. Ground model and surface processes is implemented.Conformal Map projections are available.The CReSS model is optimized for parallel computers to perform large computations as well as a single processor (parallel and serial versions). Parallel processing is performed by the Message Passing Interface (MPI) and OpenMP.

Characteristics of the CReSS model

Page 4: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Diagram of cloud micro-physical processes in CReSS

Page 5: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Typhoon simulation with Δx=1km :T0418

Page 6: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Typhoon simulation with Δx=1km :T0418

Page 7: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Snow storm over the Great Lakes in North America

grid size: Δx=500m

Page 8: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Snow storm over the Great Lakes in North America

grid size: Δx=500m

Page 9: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

CReSS simulation Radar observation

Heavy rainfall associated with Baiu front: Niigata heavy rain

Page 10: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Rain by TyphoonBars:ObservationSolid line: CReSSDashed line: RSM

Rainfall intensity (mm/hr)

Time (UTC)

Page 11: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

grid size: Δx=1km

Page 12: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Tiling extension function of CReSS ver.3

Precipitation rate (mm/hr) at 5 days from initial time.

Red line: JMA best track of Typhoon 18.

Black line: CReSS simulation result.

7 days simulation of T0418

Page 13: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 14: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Typhoons and tornadoes (tatsumakis)

ーTornado with Typhoon 9918, September 24, 1999 in Toyohashi Cityー

ーTornado with Typhoon 0613,September 17, 2006 in Nobeoka Cityー

Page 15: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

11JST, 24 September 1999; T9918

14JST, 17 September 2006; T0613

Cloud images (IR)

Page 16: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

ーTornado with Typhoon 9918, September 24, 1999 in Toyohashi Cityー

Page 17: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

24 September 1999, Toyohash (from Yomiuri Shinbun )

Page 18: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 19: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 20: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Doppler radar observation of the supercell

Page 21: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

PPI of Doppler velocity

Page 22: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

U-wind

V-wind

theta

theta_e

Page 23: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Experimental design of Toyohashi tornado

domain 48km × 48km × 12kmhorizontal grid size 75mvertical grid size 25 ~ 200mgrid numbers 603 × 603 × 63integration time 4 hourstime increment large: 0.5s, small: 0.1smicrophysics the bulk cold rain typeinitial condition Shionomisaki sounding data at

09JST, 24 September 1999.initial disturbance warm bubbleboundary condition the wave-radiating typeplatform HITACH SR8000, 8nodes

Page 24: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 25: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 26: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 27: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 28: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 29: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 30: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Vorticity (/s)

Page 31: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Pressure perturbation (hPa)

Page 32: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 33: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 34: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

ーTornado with Typhoon 0613,on September 17, 2006 in Nobeoka Cityー

Page 35: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

JMA radar14JST, 17 Sept.

Nobeoka

Rainbands of T0613

Page 36: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

CReSS Experimental Design

the Earth Simulator 128nodes (1024CPU)

the Earth Simulator128nodes(1024CPU)

Plat formcold raincold rainCloud phyc.CReSS 500mJMA-RSM(40km)BoundaryCReSS 500mJMA-RSM(40km)Initial value1.5 hours6 hoursIntegrationx:1795, y:2435, z:67x:1795, y:1795, z:67Grid numberrainband area896 km ×896 kmDomain75m500mResolutiontorunadoesconvective cloudsObjectivesExp.75mExp.500m

Page 37: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Experimental Design of Typhoon T0613Domain H: 896 km × 896 km × V: 20 kmH-gird size 500 mV-grid size 100 ~ 320 m (stretched) Grid numbers H: 1795 × 1795× V: 67Integration time 6 hoursTime increment large: 2 sec, small: 0.5 secMicro-physics the bulk cold rain typeInitial condition JMA Regional Spectral model (40km)Boundary JMA Regional Spectral model (40km) Surface real topography and observed SST ES node number 128 nodes (1024 CPU)

Page 38: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 39: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 40: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

CReSS500mVelocity and rain

mixing ratio (shadings) at a height of 1.9km.

How do we find supercells in such many convective clouds ?

3 rainbands formed

Page 41: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Identification of supercells

Convective cells are explicitly simulated in the experiment with a horizontal resolution of 500m.A supercell is defined as “a convective cell with a vorticity larger than 0.01 /s within an upward motion”.We identify a convective cloud as supercell in the simulation using the following index.SCI(Supre Cell Index):above the cloud base ( at a height of 2~4km)

wyu

xvS ⋅⎟⎟

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛∂∂

−∂∂

= CI

A convective cloud with SCI > 0.1 is super cell.

Page 42: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Velocity vectors, rain mixing ratio (shadings)

and SCI (contours) at 1.9 km in height.

The outer rainband is composed of supercells.

The east coast of Kyushu

Page 43: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 44: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 45: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Toyohashi Supercell

Page 46: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 47: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Supercell and tornado in T0613Domain H: 60 km × 60 km × V: ~20 kmH-gird size 75 mV-grid size 40 ~ 300 m (stretched) Grid numbers H: 803 × 803× V: 67Integration time 6 hoursTime increment large: 0.5 sec, small: 0.1 secMicro-physics the bulk cold rain typeInitial condition CReSS 500m simulation outputBoundary CReSS 500m simulation output Surface real topography and observed SST Computer HITACHI SR11000 (4nodes)

Page 48: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 49: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction
Page 50: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Vorticity (contour) and rain (color)

1000m

central vorticity: 0.9/s

Page 51: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

vorticity (contour) and pressure (color)

1000m

pressure perturbation:27hPa

Page 52: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

vorticity (contour) and speed (color)

1000m

maximum speed: 70m/s

Page 53: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

vorticity (contour) and vertical velocity (color)

1000m

Page 54: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

1000m

Vorticity (contour) and rain mixing ratio (color)

Page 55: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

1000m

hPa

vorticity (contour) and pressure perturbation (color)

Page 56: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

m/s

1000m

vorticity (contour) and speed (color)

Page 57: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

m/s

1000m

vorticity (contour) and vertical velocity (color)

Page 58: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Domain of 75m-resol.

Page 59: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

CReSS Exp-75mRainfall intensity

East coast of Kyushu

How are tornadoes found in the domain?

Page 60: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Index to find tatsumakisThe definition of tatsumaki (tornadoes and waterspouts) is a violently rotating air column below a convective.We define a tatsumaki more strictly to distinguish it in a model output as “rotating air in a dynamic balance between pressure gradient force and centrifugal force (the cyclostrophic balance) in a high accuracy.”Tatsumaki Index (TI) is defined as follows in the lower atmosphere.

' TI pyu

xv

⋅⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛∂∂

−∂∂

=

Vortex with TI <-1 is distinguish as tatsumaki.

Page 61: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

1000m

CReSS Exp-75mrainfall intensity (shading)TI(contour)

Page 62: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

CReSS75mrainfall intensity (shading)TI(contour)

1000m

Page 63: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Result of Exp-75mRainfall intensify

Many tornadoes occur along the outer rainband.

Page 64: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

SummaryTyphoons occasionally accompany tornadoes (tatsumakis in Japnese) and cause disasters due to strong winds. CReSS simulated the tornado within the supercell with the uniformly fine grid (75m) in the large domain.The simulation shows that successive formation of tornado vortices within the maximum updraft of the supercell.When the typhoon 0613 approached the western Japan on September 17, 2006, it accompanied a severe tornado. It killed three people and caused a train accident. In the experiment with a resolutoin of 500m, 3 rainbandswere simulated on the east side of Typhoon 0613. They are composed of supercells.The high resolution (75m) simulation showed that one of the supercells spouted an intense tornado. The detailed structure of the tornado was successfully simulated.Simulation of tornado in the large domain showed that many tornadoes occur along the outer rainband.

Page 65: Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and …...Simulation Experiments of Typhoons and Tornadoes Using the Cloud-Resolving Model Palace Side Hotel, Kyoto, Japan March 3 - 5, 2008 1. Introduction

Thank you !!The CReSS model (Ver.2.3) is free for scientific researches. If you are interested in CReSS, Please contact with me (K. Tsuboki). (HyARC, Nagoya University)