1. Paul SchumannCTEX WFS August 21, 2012

2. 1, 2, a Few, Many 1 2 A FewMany NewtonPoincareGauss Complicated Criticality & ChaosSimplicity Organized Complexity Disorganized Complexity Paul Schumann2 3. The PresentIt makes me happy. To be at the beginning again, knowing almost nothing The ordinary-sized stuff which is our lives, the things people write poetry about clouds daffodils waterfalls,,,these things are full of mystery, as mysterious to us as the heavens were to the GreeksIts the best possible time to be alive, when almost everything you thought you knew is wrong.Tom Stoppard, Arcadia Paul Schumann 3 4. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 4 5. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 5 6. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 6 7. Examples Three Body Problem The Logistic Map: x t + 1 = R x t ( 1 x t ) Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social NetworksR=2 R=4 Evolutionx 0 = 0.99x 0 = 0.2 Economicsx0 = 0.200000000 01 Paul Schumann7 8. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 8 9. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 9 10. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics N = a M -2 Paul Schumann10 11. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour GlassCriticality Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Gaussian Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 11 12. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 12 13. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Termite Cathedral Paul Schumann 13 14. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 14 15. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics European Starlings Paul Schumann15 16. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 16 17. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 17 18. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 18 19. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 19 20. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 20 21. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 21 22. ModelingMathematical Massively Parallel Derived Simulation Analytical Describe underlying Conditionalmechanisms Equation: x = a t2 Rule based agents in an Predictive environment Exploration Easier to add random or probabilistic events Flexible & intuitive Paul Schumann 22 23. P=a C -2.1Examples 2007: corr=0.98 2008: corr=0.94 Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 23 24. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 24 25. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 25 26. Examples Three Body Problem Weather Logistic Graph Earthquakes/Hour Glass Forrest Fires Termite Castles Slime Mold Flocking/Schooling/Herding Body Rhythms Natures True Shapes Biological Growth Ecological Systems Markets Social Networks Evolution Economics Paul Schumann 26 27. Examples Three Body Problem the wealth of nations is driven by Weatherproductive knowledge. Individuals are Logistic Graph limited in the things they can effectively Earthquakes/Hour Glass know and use in production so the only Forrest Firesway a society can hold more knowledge is Termite Castlesby distributing different chunks of Slime Mold knowledge to different people. To use the Flocking/Schooling/Herding knowledge, these chunks need to be re- Body Rhythms aggregated by connecting people through Natures True Shapes organizations and markets. The complex Biological Growthweb of products and markets is the other Ecological Systems side of the coin of the accumulating Marketsproductive knowledge. Social Networks EvolutionAtlas of Economic Complexity Economics Paul Schumann27 28. ExamplesDispersed interaction The economy has interaction between many dispersed, heterogeneous, agents. The action of any given agent depends upon the anticipated actions of other agents and on the aggregate state of the Three Body Problem economy.No global controller Controls are provided by mechanisms of Weathercompetition and coordination between agents. Economic actions are mediated Logistic Graph by legal institutions, assigned roles, and shifting associations. No global entity Earthquakes/Hour Glass controls interactions. Traditionally, a fictitious auctioneer has appeared in some mathematical analyses of general equilibrium models, although nobody Forrest Firesclaimed any descriptive accuracy for such models. Traditionally, many Termite Castlesmainstream models have imposed constraints, such as requiring that budgets Slime Mold be balanced, and such constraints are avoided in complexity economics.Cross-cutting hierarchical organization The economy has many levels Flocking/Schooling/Herding of organization and interaction. Units at any given level behaviors, actions, Body Rhythms strategies, products typically serve as "building blocks" for constructing units at Natures True Shapes the next higher level. The overall organization is more than hierarchical, with many sorts of tangling interactions (associations, channels of communication) Biological Growthacross levels. Ecological SystemsOngoing adaptation Behaviors, actions, strategies, and products are Marketsrevised frequently as the individual agents accumulate experience[8].Novelty niches Such niches are associated with new markets, new Social Networkstechnologies, new behaviors, and new institutions. The very act of filling a Evolutionniche may provide new niches. The result is ongoing novelty. Economics Out-of-equilibrium dynamics Because new niches, new potentials, new possibilities, are continually created, the economy functions without attaining any optimum or global equilibrium. Improvements occur regularly. Paul Schumann28 29. Complexity, Emergence & Fractals The behavior of a complexsystem in dynamic Complexityequilibrium is chaotic, innon-equilibrium is critical Emergence is the wayEquilibriumNon-complex systems and patterns equilibriumarise out of a multiplicity ofrelatively simple interactionsChaos Agents Criticality A fractal is an object orquantity that displays self-similarity on all scales. Some complex systems canEmergenceAgentsappear simple or complicatedat some scales Adaptive FractalsPaul Schumann 29 30. Why Is Complexity Important? Ubiquitous Trans disciplinary the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity. Hawking the overarching challenge of our age will be managingmodern complexity Beer I am convinced that the nations and people who masterthe new sciences of complexity will become the economic,cultural and political superpowers of the next century(21st). Pagels Complexity has created a bridge or a merger ofquantitative and qualitative explanations of life. -ZimmermanPaul Schumann 30 31. The Future Complexity More systems More interconnectedness in the systems The reach of a system is growing The number of people/things in a system is increasing The speed of interaction is increasing Therefore: More complexity More chaos More criticality More emergence Paul Schumann31 32. Paul SchumannPaul Schumann, PO Box 161475, Austin, TX 78716512.632.6586paschumann2009@gmail.comhttp://insights-foresight.blogspot.com/https://sites.google.com/a/schumann2020.com/paul- schumann/homehttp://www.twitter.com/innovant2003Want to go further? Contact mePaul Schumann32 33. Resources Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell, Oxford, 2009 Simplexity, Jeffrey Kluger, Hyperion, 2008 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Random House, 2007 Adventures in Modeling: Exploring Complex, Dynamic Systems with StarLogo, Vanessa StevensColella, Eric Klopfer & Mitchel Resnick, Teachers College press, 2001 Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, and Software, Steven Johnson, Scribner,2001 Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchanan, Three Rivers Press, 2000 Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds, Mitchel Resnick,MIT, 1997 Chaos Gaia Eros, Ralph Abraham, Harper, 1994 Tao of Chaos: Merging East and West, Katya Walter, Kairos Center, 1994 Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, M. Mitchell Waldrop, Touchstone,1992 Exploring Complexity: An Introduction, Gregoire Nicolis & Ilya Prigogine, Freeman, 1989 Chaos: Making a New A Science, James Gleick, Penguin, 1987 Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Douglas Hofstadter, Vintage, 1980Go to Insights and Foresight Blog (http://insights-foresight.blogspot.com/) and search forcomplexity. All the resources listed above have blog entries and or links.Paul Schumann 33 34. This work is licensed under the CreativeCommons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon thiswork, even commercially, as long as you creditme for the original creation as Paul Schumann.Paul Schumann34