sierra vista economic outlook 2013. national economy sequestration
TRANSCRIPT
Sierra Vista Economic Outlook2013
National Economy Sequestration Sequestration Sequestration Sequestration Sequestration Sequestration Sequestration
Arizona Economy
Local EconomySierra Vista & Cochise County
Retail Sales GrowthInflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Retail SalesCochise County Sierra Vista
2013* 6.4% 4.5%
2012 4.5% -1.0%
2011 -1.2% -5.5%
2010 -4.8% -1.1%
2009 -4.2% -1.4%
2008 -6.5% -6.6%
2007 -1.3% 2.6%
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U* January only; comparison to same period the previous year
Restaurant and Bar Sales GrowthInflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Restaurant and Bar SalesCochise County Sierra Vista
2013* -6.7% -14.6%
2012 -4.4% -9.5%
2011 -0.2% 2.8%
2010 0.0% 3.1%
2009 0.3% 2.1%
2008 0.2% -2.0%
2007 0.1% 2.9%
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U* January only; comparison to same period the previous year
Accommodation Sales GrowthInflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Accommodation SalesCochise County Sierra Vista
2013* -22.4% -40.2%
2012 -17.2% -28.2%
2011 -13.1% -10.1%
2010 8.3% 11.0%
2009 -9.0% -2.0%
2008 1.0% 19.4%
2007 19.7% 21.1%
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U* January only; comparison to same period the previous year
Sales Outlook Retail on rebound but sequestration & general
defense cuts threaten to derail Hospitality will continue to struggle,
particularly accommodation Construction of new hospital will help all
industries (net effect = new hospital – defense cuts)
Unemployment
* Jan-Feb only; seasonally adjusted
Unemployment (Monthly)
Nonfarm Job Growth (Cochise County)Compared to same month previous year
Job Gains/Losses (Cochise County)12 months ended Feb 2013
Job Gains/Losses % (Cochise County)12 months ended Feb 2013
Employment Outlook Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts
New Residential ConstructionSFR Permits
Home SalesMLS (site-built only)
Home PricesMedian Price (site-built only)
New Commercial Construction
Outlook New residential construction stalled due to
competition from foreclosures Existing home sales volume given boost from
foreclosures/lower prices New hospital
Conclusion National economy hampered by fiscal
woes/sequestration State economy improving Local Economy
Sequestration/defense budget cuts New hospital Net effect