siam: state of the indian automobile industry

SIAM Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers

October 2014

Seoul

State of the Indian Automobile Industry

Latest Performance Review

A SIAM Presentation 2

Performance & Growth


2 Wheelers : 14.8 Mn

3 Wheelers : 0.48 Mn

Passenger Vehicles : 2.5 Mn

Commercial Vehicles : 0.63 Mn

Industry Estimates Employment (Direct + Indirect) : 2 Mn+27 Mn

Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)

Investment from FY 09 - FY 14 : USD 13.5 Bn

Contribution to manufacturing GDP : 47.3%

Source: SIAM, IMACs

A SIAM Presentation

SIAM

14% 3% 3%

80%

Passenger Vehicles (2,503,685)

Two Wheelers (14,805,481)

Three Wheelers (479,634)

Commercial Vehicles (632,738)

4

51%

19% 2%

28%

Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles

Three Wheelers Two Wheelers

Segmentation: By Volume Segmentation: By Value

Source: SIAM

Ashok Leyland Ltd

0.02

Fiat India

Automobiles,

0.42

Force

Motors

0.11

Ford

India,

3.29

General Motors India

2.28

Hindustan Motor Finance

Corporation

0.06

Hindustan Motors

0.01

Honda Cars India

7.04

Hyundai Motor India

16.21

Isuzu Motors India

0.01

Mahindra & Mahindra

8.84 Maruti Suzuki India

44.58

Nissan Motor

India

2.06

Renault India

1.68

Skoda Auto India

0.58 Tata Motors

5.84

Toyota Kirloskar Motor

5.36

Volkswagen

India Pvt Ltd

1.62

AMW Motors

0.56 Ashok Leyland

13.48

Force Motors

3.50

Isuzu Motors India

0.12

Mahindra & Mahindra

25.72

Piaggio Vehicles

1.03 SML Isuzu

2.04

Tata Motors

47.40

VECVs – Eicher

6.01

VECVs – Volvo

0.16

Sl.No

Models Sep 2014 (Sales Nos)

1 Maruti Suzuki Alto 19,906

2 Maruti Suzuki Swift 17,265

3 Maruti Suzuki DZIRE 16,964

4 Maruti Suzuki Wagon R 15,641

5 Hyundai Elite i20 8,902

6 Mahindra Bolero 8,541

7 Hyundai Grand i10 7,285

8 Maruti Suzuki Omni 6,659

9 Hyundai Eon 6,489

10 Maruti Suzuki Celerio 6,382

Alto Swift

Dzire Wagon R

Grand i10 Elite i20

Bolero Omni

Celerio Eon

Category Model September 2014 A: Passenger Cars Micro Tata Nano 1,703

Mini Maruti Suzuki Alto 19,906

Compact Maruti Suzuki Swift 17,265

Super Compact Toyota Etios Sedan 1,638

Mid-Size Honda City 4,600

Executive Toyota Corolla 791

Premium Skoda Superb 125

B: Utility Vehicles(UVs) UV1 Mahindra Bolero 6,850

UV2 Mahindra Scorpio 6,060

UV3 Force Trax 299

UV4 Toyota Fortuner 1,745

UV5 Toyota Land Cruiser 10

C: Vans

V1 Maruti Suzuki Omni 6,659

V2 Tata ACE Magic 1,566

A SIAM Presentation Source: SIAM, IMACs 9

Items Unit 2003-04 2013-14 Growth

Total Volume (in numbers) ‘000 6,811 18,422 2.7x

Passenger Vehicles ‘000 902 2,504 2.8x

Commercial Vehicles ‘000 260 633 2.4x

Two Wheelers ‘000 5,364 14,805 2.8x

Three Wheelers ‘000 284 480 1.7x

Domestic Sales Revenue (OEM) US $ billion 15 40 2.7x

Vehicles Exports Revenue US $ billion 1 8 7.2x

Share of GDP % 4.5% 7.1% 1.6x

(1 USD @ Rs. 60)

Production (January -December ) Data in units 2012 2013 % Change Passenger Cars (1)* 3,296,240 3,138,988 -4.77

Commercial Vehicles (2) 878,473 741,950 -15.54

Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 4,174,713 3,880,938 -7.04

Domestic Sales (January -December ) Data in units 2012 2013 % Change Passenger Cars (1)* 2,753,161 2,553,979 -7.23



Exports (January -December ) Data in units 2012 2013 % Change Passenger Cars (1)* 551,522 593,453 7.60


Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 640,743 665,623 3.88

Note: * BMW, Mercedes, Audi and JLR data not reported

Production (January -September) Data in units 2013 2014 % Change

Passenger Cars (1)* 2,407,278 2,388,674 -0.77



Domestic Sales (January -September) Data in units 2013 2014 % Change

Passenger Cars (1)* 1,927,176 1,927,917 0.04



Exports (January -September) Data in units 2013 2014 % Change

Passenger Cars (1)* 452,001 447,721 -0.95

Commercial Vehicles (2) 53,399 63,815 19.51

Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 505,400 511,536 1.21

Note: * BMW, Mercedes, Audi and JLR data not reported

A SIAM Presentation

Facing slowdown over the last 2-3 years

Vehicle Segment (‘000) FY 02 FY 12 CAGR

FY 02-12

Passenger Vehicles 686 2,629 14.4%

Commercial Vehicles 136 833 19.9%

FY 14 CAGR

FY 12-14

2,501 -2.5%

633 -12.8%

Source: SIAM 12


Vehicle Segment (‘000) FY 02 FY 12 CAGR

FY 02-12

Passenger Vehicles 686 2,629 14.4%

Commercial Vehicles 136 833 19.9%

FY 14 CAGR

FY 12-14 Growth

6m FY 15

2,501 -2.5% 4.3%

633 -12.8% -10.1%


Early signs of domestic demand recovery

A SIAM Presentation

Passenger Vehicles-Trends

PVs=Cars + UVs + Vans- Trends

• 4% in H1 F15 over H1 F14

61

5

63

7

1,2

52

Q1 Q2 H1

Passenger Vehicle Sales ‘000s

F14 F15

1% 7% 4%

A SIAM Presentation

CVs-Trends

• -10% in H1F15 over H1 F14

141

152

294

Q1 Q2 H1

Commercial Vehicles‘000s

F14 F15

-10% -4% -16%

A SIAM Presentation

178

20

166

23

PVs CVs

Q2 Exports ‘000s

Q2 F14 Q2 F15

-7% 11%

20% Exports as a % of Production in Q2 13%

Source: SIAM Data

15


F15 Outlook

A SIAM Presentation

SIAM 17

Sensex Foreign financial investment (FIIs)

20.5 21.1 22.4 22.4

24.2 25.4 25.9 26.6 27.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

(Till

dat

e)

Mill

iers

All time high

711

3422

1258

9304

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Net

FII

infl

ow

, $ M

illio

n

7 times high

April - August

Monthly Source: CMIE

A SIAM Presentation

SIAM 18

GDP recovery Some respite in Inflation

4.5 4.6

4.4 4.4 4.7

5.2

4.6 4.6

5.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Gro

wth

Yo

Y, %

10.2 9.9 10.1 10.7

9.5 9.7 10.4

8.4 8.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

CP

I Yo

Y, %

Source: CMIE

A SIAM Presentation

SIAM 19

Current account deficit Business confidence index

135 127 125

120 114

118

103

122 127

143

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Apr-

12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-

14

BC

I Q

uart

erl

y

3.98

4.95

6.49

3.49

4.78

1.2 0.87

0.24

1.65

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Cu

rre

nt

acco

un

t d

efic

it %

of

GD

P

Source: CMIE and NCAER

A SIAM Presentation

Some early signs of revival in demand. However business environment continues to be challenging

◦ Economic growth – Seen improving but still to take root

◦ Inflation – still not under control

◦ Vehicle finance rates – Continues to be high

◦ Consumer Sentiment - Significantly Improved

◦ Product Offering - Number of new models launched

Key Concerns

◦ Commercial vehicle segment continues to be strained but improving

◦ High inflation

◦ Vehicle finance rates high

◦ FOREX rate fluctuation

◦ Higher Excise duty rates expected to be reinstated in January 2015

20

A SIAM Presentation

Need to watch economic growth trend, inflation, interest rates, fuel prices and commodity prices.

Also, need to watch Government policy initiatives in terms of project implementation, infrastructure development and revival in mining activity.

Industry needs to grow at a pace much faster than in recent times to get back to growth path.

21

A SIAM Presentation

• A key objective is to address India’s increasing crude oil deficit,

which poses a serious challenge to its fuel security

• Concerted efforts are required across a range of solutions to

meet India’s fuel security objective

• Alternate mobility solutions include xEVs such as HEV, PHEV,

ER-EV and BEV

• xEV and CNG adoption could help meet our objective of fuel

security through significant fuel savings

• Apart from regulations, cost of batteries is a key factor in xEV

demand, which is expected to decline substantially by 2020

A SIAM Presentation

To achieve the desirable outcomes stated in NEMMP 2020, Government of India, will focus on four broad areas:

Demand creation through:

Incentives (cash subsidy) for various xEVs

Mandates for some segments such as public transport vehicles

On road vehicles through hybrid retrofitment

Domestic manufacturing through:

Linking incentives with localization content in a phased manner

Various tax rebates such as excise duty, corporate tax

Research, Development & Demonstration through:

Creating Centre of Excellence for accelerated development and tangible outcomes of research work at component level

Pilot projects to test and assess the impact of xEVs and spread awareness

Infrastructure creation through PPP or private players for:

Power infrastructure

Charging infrastructure

A SIAM Presentation

The Government has set up a robust mechanism for disbursement

of incentives, for ensuring quality of products and for value

addition in the country.

a) b)

- c)

A SIAM Presentation

Potential

xEV

Sales by

2020

Decrease

in CO2

Fuel

Savings Jobs

xEV

Sales Till

2020

9500 Mi Liters

24 Mi

Ton

250,000~300,000

15 Million

6~7 Million (YoY)

A SIAM Presentation

Incentives to consumers based on Life Cycle Analysis (TCO Modeling) and Projected Desirable Sales.

All segments (Inclusive) and technology types (Technology Neutral). Prioritization of vehicle segments based on two broad objectives of maximizing potential for fuel savings and potential for mass adoption.

Setting-up Qualifying Criteria focusing on Quality (Safety and Emissions), Performance (Fuel Savings) & Value Addition (Make in India)

Setting-up an e-Enabled Incentive Delivery Mechanism to create efficient and robust mechanism.

Fiscal support in terms of tax policies – import and excise duty rebate aiming at promoting domestic manufacturing

PPP in R&D and Charging Infrastructure.


SIAM Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers

siam: state of the indian automobile industry

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