shrimp production review - global aquaculture … data include both marine and freshwater production...

Shrimp Production Review Diego Valderrama

Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, USA

James L. Anderson The World Bank, Washington, DC

GOAL 2011

Santiago, Chile, November 6-9, 2011

GOAL 2011 Shrimp Produc4on Survey

Issues & Challenges

GOAL 2011 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by World Region:

1991 -‐ 2012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Million MT

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other Africa/MidEast Americas India/Bangladesh China Southeast Asia

Sources: FAO (2011) for 1991-2009; GOAL (2011) for 2010-2013. Note: M. rosenbergii is not included.

2005 - 2009 Annual growth rate: 7.0%

2012- 2013 Projected annual growth rate: 10.3%

-3.0%

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2005 – 2013

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included.

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

Million MT

Southeast Asia China India/Bangladesh Americas Africa/MidEast 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2005-2009 data are from FAO (2011).

China data include both marine and freshwater production of P. vannamei

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions:

2005-‐2009 vs. 2009-‐2013

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered.

6.3%

-4.0%

5.7%

3.1%

10.6% 10.9% 10.0%

4.8%4.4%

0.4%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Southeast Asia China India/Bangladesh Americas Africa/MidEast

Average Annual Growth Rate

2005-2009 2009-2013

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2005 – 2013



China data include both marine and freshwater production of P. vannamei

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Million MT

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Bangladesh2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2005-‐2009 vs. 2009-‐2013


10.6%

5.8%

3.2%1.2%

4.8%

-7.7%

7.7%

2.6%

16.4%

4.5%

0.4%

5.6%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Bangladesh


2005-2009 2009-2013

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on in China by Species: 2000 -‐ 2010

Sources: FAO (2011); GOAL (2011); Zhejiang Aquatic Product Trade (2011). M. rosenbergii is not included.

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5Million MT

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Other Marine Shrimp P. vannamei (Marine) P. vannamei (Freshwater)

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on & Shrimp Exports from China

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Million MT

Shrimp Production (Freshwater) Shrimp Production (Marine) Shrimp Exports (Product Weight)

Sources: FAO (2011); GOAL (2001).

Export figures for 2009 and 2010 are estimates.

Shrimp Aquaculture in La4n America: 2005 – 2013


0

40

80

120

160

200

Thousand MT

Ecuador Mexico Brazil Colombia Honduras Nicaragua

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Shrimp Aquaculture in La4n America: 2005-‐2009 vs. 2009-‐2013


10.9%

0.8%

15.9%

-1.2%

-8.5%

8.7%

14.7%

11.3%

30.9%

-3.0%

1.5%

-1.5%

-12%

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

Ecuador Mexico Brazil Colombia Honduras Nicaragua


2005-2009 2009-2013

GOAL 2011 Survey World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii)

by Species: 1991 -‐ 2013

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

4.2

4.8

Million MT

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

45%

59%

67% 63% 71% Percentages indicate the

share of P. vannamei.

1991-2009 data: FISHSTAT (2011).

2010-2013 data: GOAL estimates.

16%

72%

GOAL 2011 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia

by Species: 1991 -‐ 2013

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

4.2

Million MT

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

37%

53%

63% 58% 67% Percentages indicate the

share of P. vannamei.

1991-2009 data: FISHSTAT (2011).

2010-2013 data: GOAL estimates.

7%

69%

World Landings of Wild-‐Caught Shrimp by Species

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Million MT Others/NS

Common shrimp (Crangoncrangon)

Argentine red shrimp(Pleoticus muelleri)

Northern white shrimp(Penaeus setiferus)

Northern brown shrimp(Penaeus aztecus)

Banana prawn (Penaeusmerguiensis)

Fleshy prawn (Penaeuschinensis)

Giant tiger prawn(Penaeus monodon)

Southern rough shrimp(Trachypenaeuscurvirostris) Northern prawn (Pandalusborealis)

Akiami paste shrimp(Acetes japonicus)

Source: FAO (2011).

World Produc4on of Shrimp Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Million MT

Capture Fisheries Aquaculture

Source: FAO (2011). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

Aquaculture accounted for 52% of world shrimp supplies in 2009.

26 %

28%

52%

World Produc4on of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Million MT

Others/NS

Penaeus chinensis

Penaeusmerguiensis

Trachypenaeuscurvirostris

Pandalus borealis

Acetes japonicus

P. monodon

P. vannamei

Source: FAO (2011). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. Freshwater production of P. vannamei in China is included.

P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, with virtually all production coming from aquaculture.

Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei.

4 %

28 %

35 %

GOAL 2011 Survey Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by

Size Categories – Aggregate 2010

8%

9%

12%

15%

21%

13%

11%

6%4%

7%

17%

23%

21%

15%

7%5%

9%

15%

22%

23%

12%

10%

8%

7%

16%

23%

21%

14%

8%6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Imports Asia Americas World

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

Source: GOAL (2011).

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by Size Categories –

Comparison of Survey Data for Asia

4% 7% 6% 7% 7%9%18% 16% 14%

17%

25%

29% 30% 30% 23%

22%

22% 19% 20% 21%

19%

10% 12% 10% 15%9%

6% 7% 7%7%

9% 7% 5% 8% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GOAL 2007 GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

56% 69% 65% 64% 61%

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by Size Categories –

Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas

9% 16% 10% 11%9%

10%

18%19% 15%

15%

14%

16% 20% 20%22%

18%

16% 19% 22% 23%20%

15% 13% 15%12%

18%11% 10%

10%10%

9% 6% 7% 4% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Size Categories -‐ GOAL Survey 2011

Size Category Asia Americas World

<15 Stable/Decrease Decrease Stable/Decrease

15-‐20 Stable Increase Stable

21-‐25 Stable Increase/Stable Stable

26-‐30 Stable Stable Stable

31-‐40 Stable Increase Stable


51-‐60 Stable Stable/Decrease Stable


>70 Stable Stable Stable

GOAL 2011 Survey Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by

Product Form – Aggregate 2010

21%

23%

34%28%

12%

27%

18%25%

18%17%

7%12% 11%3% 2%

50%

17%

74%

40%

31%

22%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Imports Japan Imports Asia Americas World

OtherForms

Breaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green /Head-off

Green /Head-on

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by Product Form –

Comparison of Survey Data for Asia

17%

22%

28% 35%30%

23% 28%

25% 22% 20%19% 18%

15% 11% 12% 8% 12%6% 8% 3%

11%24%

9%6%

19%

18%

22%19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


OtherForms

Breaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green /Head-off

Green /Head-on


Comparison of Survey Data for China

4% 5% 9%

28%20%17% 15%

14%

15%

13%25%

35% 33%

27%

31%

22%20% 16%

13%15%

27% 15% 20%10% 18%

5% 10% 9% 9% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


OtherForms

Breaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green /Head-off

Green /Head-on


Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas

45% 40% 44% 46% 50%

41% 53% 46% 45% 31%

8%6% 7% 7%

12%

4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


OtherForms

Breaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green /Head-off

Green /Head-on

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Product Form -‐ GOAL Survey 2011

Product Form Asia Americas World

Green / Head-‐on Stable Stable/Increase Stable

Green / Head-‐off Stable Decrease Stable/Decrease

Peeled Increase Increase Increase

Cooked Increase/Stable Increase Increase

Breaded Stable/Increase Increase Stable/Increase

Other Forms Stable Increase Stable

Trends in Product Form Comparing Responses from 2011 vs. 2010 Surveys

Cell colors indicate response in 2011 survey (e.g., Green = Stable/Increase, Increase).

Arrows indicate change in trend compared to 2010 survey.

Product Form Asia Americas World

Green / Head-‐on

Green / Head-‐off

Peeled

Cooked

Breaded

Other Forms

Diseases *Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

*International market prices Seed stock quality & availability

Access to disease-free broodstock Product quality control

Feed quality and availability Production costs - Fuel

Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Production costs - Others

Environmental management Access to Credit

*International trade barriers Infrastructure

Market coordination Conflicts with other users

Public Relations Management

Not Important Extremely Important

Moderately Important

GOAL 2011 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

All Countries


Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Worldwide Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture 2011 Survey vs. 2010 Survey


International market prices

Diseases

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Environmental management

Access to disease-free broodstock

Seed stock quality & availability

International trade barriers

Production costs - Fuel

Access to Credit

Production costs - Others

2011 2010



Diseases *Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Seed stock quality & availability Access to disease-free broodstock

Product quality control *International market prices

Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Feed quality and availability Environmental management

Production costs - Others Production costs - Fuel

Access to Credit *International trade barriers

Infrastructure Market coordination

Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management



GOAL 2011 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture -‐ Asia



*Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal *Diseases

*International market prices Access to Credit

Production costs - Fuel Access to disease-free broodstock

Production costs - Others Seed stock quality & availability

Market coordination International trade barriers

Feed quality and availability Infrastructure

Product quality control Public Relations Management

Conflicts with other users Environmental management

Banned chemicals / antibiotic use



GOAL 2011 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

Americas



GOAL 2011 Survey Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

Asia vs. La4n America


Diseases

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

International market prices

Access to disease-free broodstock

Production costs - Fuel

Access to Credit

Seed stock quality & availability

Production costs - Others

Product quality control

International trade barriers

Asia Americas



GOAL 2011 Survey Global economic condi4ons will be beber

in 2012 compared to 2011

Outlook Asia Americas Oceania

Strongly Agree Taiwan

Agree Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam Colombia

Neutral/No Opinion China, India, Indonesia, South Korea

Disagree Malaysia, Thailand Belize, Brazil, Ecuador,

Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, USA

Australia

Strongly Disagree

GOAL 2011 Survey Feed prices will be lower in 2012 compared to 2011



Agree

Neutral/No Opinion China, Indonesia, Malaysia Nicaragua

Disagree India, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam

Belize, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama,

Peru, USA Australia

Strongly Disagree Bangladesh

GOAL 2011 Survey The global shrimp market will strengthen in 2012

compared to 2011



Agree Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam Ecuador

Neutral/No Opinion China, India, Thailand Colombia

Disagree Belize, Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, USA Australia

Strongly Disagree

Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices

Source: USDC/NMFS (2011)

-‐

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2000

USD

/lb

<15/lb 31-‐40 >70/lb Peeled Composite

P. monodon vs. P. vannamei U.S. Wholesale Prices

Source: Urner Barry (2011)

(2.00)

(1.00)

-‐

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Jan-‐99 Jan-‐00 Jan-‐01 Jan-‐02 Jan-‐03 Jan-‐04 Jan-‐05 Jan-‐06 Jan-‐07 Jan-‐08 Jan-‐09 Jan-‐10 Jan-‐11

USD/

lb

Farmed, Ecuador White, 26-‐30 Farmed, SE Asian Tiger, 26-‐30 Premium (White minus Tiger)

Change in Price 2009-‐2011 (Jan-‐Oct)

Ecuador White, 26-‐30

SE Asian Tiger, 26-‐30

+23% +25%

Market (All Product Forms)

Import Quan4ty Income

USA -‐1.1% 1.2%

Japan -‐1.1% 0.9%

France -‐0.9% 1.2%

Price Flexibili4es

% Change in Price given a 1% Change in:

Thank You!

shrimp production review - global aquaculture … data include both marine and freshwater production...

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