short term inflation analyses and...

Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast

AUGUST 2017

RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION

ⓒ 2017 Bank of Jamaica

Nethersole Place

Kingston

Jamaica

Telephone: (876) 922 0750-9

Fax: (876) 967 4265

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.boj.org.jm

ISSN 0799 5008

Printed in Jamaica

Preface This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the short-term inflation forecasting model – Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI).

Table of Contents

1.0 Review of Outturn 1

2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast 3

2.1 Trends in demand 3 2.2 Trends in supply 4 2.3 Import prices 5 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation 6

3.0 Revised Forecast 7

4.0 Summary and Conclusion 8

Appendices 9

Tables and Figures Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation 1 Figure 2: Regional Inflation 1 Figure 3: Inflation Contribution 2 Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand 3 Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales 4 Figure 6: International Oil Prices 5 Figure 7: International Grains Prices 5 Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change) 6 Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart Error!

Bookmark not defined. Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture

Production 9

Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast

September 2017 Research Services Department 1

1.0 Review of Outturn For August 2017, there was inflation of 0.3 per cent, which compares to inflation of 0.4 per cent recorded for August 2016 and average inflation of 0.6 per cent for August of the last five years. Given the August 2017 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 4.4 per cent, above the 1.8 per cent as at August 2016 but below the 4.5 per cent outturn as at July 2017 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation

For August 2017, the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) recorded higher levels of inflation relative to the Other Urban Centres (OUC) and the Rural Area (RA). This was mainly due to the higher price increases for Food & Non-Alchoholic Beverages in the GKMA region (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Regional Inflation

The outturn for August 2017 was below the 5-year monthly average for August.



Inflation in August 2017 was primarily driven by increases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) and Recreation & Culture (R&C). The increase in FNB was largely due to the upward movement in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. In particular, significant price increases were observed for cabbage, potato and yam. Notable increases were also observed for processed foods, particularly for the Meat sub-group. R&C was higher primarily due to increases in the prices of books, stationery and other school equipment. Inflationary pressure for the month was partly offset by a decline in HWEG due to a reduction in electricity rates. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution

Inflation for August 2017 primarily reflected higher vegetable and starchy food prices, as well as increases in books and stationery. These were partly offset by a reduction in electricity rates.

Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative

MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN



2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast

2.1 Trends in demand The main indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ accelerated for the review period. The 12-month average of the real value of imports is estimated to have accelerated by 3.7 per cent for July 2017, relative to the same measure three months prior. Also for the three months ended July 2017, the 12-month average of the real value of debit and credit card transactions accelerated by 4.0 per cent (Figure 6).

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand

The indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ accelerated.



2.2 Trends in supply For August 2017, RADA’s forecast had suggested that the supply of most starches and vegetables was increasing relative to the previous month. In this regard, the prices of vegetable and starchy foods were expected to decelerate in August relative to July 2017. Surveys carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) and CAC also indicated a deceleration in the rate of increase in agricultural prices in August 2017 relative to July 2017. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production accelerated in August 2017 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales

Domestic agriculture commodity prices decelerated in August 2017 relative to the previous month. The indicator of industrial productivity accelerated in August 2017.



2.3 Import prices In August 2017 crude oil prices rose by 3.0 per cent to an average of US$48.06 per bbl. Price increases mainly stemmed from reports that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had reduced exports to the United States. Upward price pressures also emanated from the market’s reaction to US government data which revealed that demand for motor fuel rose for the week ended 28 July 2017. In September 2017 crude oil prices rose by 3.8 per cent to an average of US$49.88 per bbl. The increase in prices mainly emanated from growing expectations that major oil producers will extend output cuts beyond March 2018. Figure 6: International Oil Prices

Figure 7: International Grains Prices

Oil prices rose in August and September 2017.

Forecast Actual



For September 2017, the grains price index declined by 9.4 per cent. This outturn mainly reflected reductions of 15.4 per cent in the price of wheat. There were also declines in the prices of corn and rice, both by 5.8 per cent. For September 2017, the grains price index advanced by 2.3 per cent. This outturn mainly reflected increases of 3.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent in the prices of wheat and rice respectively. The increase in the grains index was partly offset by a decline of 0.8 per cent in corn prices.

2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For August 2017, monthly CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-AF) remained unchanged at 0.2 per cent, CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI-FF) accelerated to 0.2 per cent, relative to 0.1 per cent in the previous month while the Trimmed Mean (TRIM) decelerated to 0.2 per cent, relative to 0.4 per cent in the previous month. At end-August 2017, all three annual point-to-point measures of core inflation remained unchanged relative to July 2017. The CPI-AF, CPI-FF and TRIM remained at 2.5 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 2.2, respectively. Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change)

The grains price index declined in August 2017 and advanced in September 2017. All three measures of annual core inflation remained unchanged in August 2017 relative to the previous month



Inflation for the month of September is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in HWEG due to higher electricity rates stemming from higher fuel charges for September. Upward impulse for the month is also expected to emanate from FNB due to an increase in non-processed food prices. The division EDU is projected to reflect a seasonal increase in tuition fees. Inflation in October and November is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG.

Inflation for FY2017/18 is forecasted to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. The overall risks are viewed to be balanced over the next four quarters (see Figure 9). The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are adverse weather and stronger than anticipated demand conditions. The major downside risks include quicker than anticipated recovery of the agricultural sector following flood rain damage, lower than projected international commodity prices and weaker than anticipated demand.

Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart

Headline inflation for FY2017/18 is anticipated to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent.

3.0 Revised Forecast

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3

Nov-

13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4

Nov-

14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5

Nov-

15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6

Nov-

16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7

Nov-

17

Mar

-18



4.0 Summary and Conclusion

For August 2017, there was inflation of 0.3 per cent which was primarily driven by increases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverage (FNB) and Recreation & Culture (R&C). The increase in FNB was largely due to the upward movement in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. R&C was higher primarily due to increases in the prices of books, stationery and other school equipment. Inflationary pressure for the month was partly offset by a decline in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG) due to a reduction in electricity rates. Inflation in September is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in HWEG due to higher electricity rates stemming from higher fuel charges for September. The division of Education (ED) is also projected to reflect a seasonal increase in tuition fees. Inflation in October is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG. Inflation for fiscal year 2017/18 is projected to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent.



Appendices Figure 10: Trends in selected agriculture production

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-14 215.86 215.04 0.09 0.77 1.13 7.97 18.47 0.77 2.45

Jul-14 218.92 216.81 1.42 2.48 1.67 8.96 9.03 2.19 3.90Aug-14 221.30 218.69 1.09 2.62 1.96 9.75 9.05 3.31 5.03Sep-14 225.86 222.03 2.06 4.63 3.25 8.99 8.93 5.44 7.20Oct-14 226.09 224.42 0.10 3.28 3.51 8.20 8.76 5.55 7.31Nov-14 224.88 225.61 -0.54 1.62 3.16 7.32 8.54 4.98 6.73Dec-14 224.09 225.02 -0.35 -0.78 1.35 6.36 8.27 4.61 6.36

2015 Jan-15 222.98 223.98 -0.50 -1.38 -0.19 5.29 7.94 4.09 -0.50Feb-15 221.53 222.87 -0.65 -1.49 -1.22 4.54 7.59 3.41 -1.14Mar-15 222.69 222.40 0.52 -0.63 -1.16 3.96 7.21 3.96 -0.63Apr-15 223.06 222.43 0.17 0.03 -0.70 4.42 6.94 0.17 -0.46May-15 224.22 223.32 0.52 1.22 0.20 3.97 6.60 0.69 0.06Jun-15 225.30 224.19 0.48 1.17 0.81 4.37 6.30 1.17 0.54Jul-15 227.23 225.58 0.86 1.87 1.42 3.80 5.88 2.04 1.40Aug-15 228.99 227.18 0.78 2.13 1.73 3.48 5.36 2.83 2.19Sep-15 229.97 228.73 0.43 2.07 2.02 1.82 4.76 3.27 2.62Oct-15 230.69 229.88 0.31 1.52 1.91 2.03 4.25 3.59 2.94Nov-15 231.80 230.82 0.48 1.23 1.60 3.08 3.90 4.09 3.44Dec-15 232.30 231.60 0.21 1.01 1.25 3.66 3.68 4.31 3.66

2016 Jan-16 231.28 231.79 -0.44 0.25 0.83 3.72 3.56 3.86 -0.44Feb-16 229.60 231.06 -0.73 -0.95 0.10 3.64 3.48 3.10 -1.16Mar-16 229.29 230.05 -0.14 -1.30 -0.67 2.96 3.40 2.96 -1.30Apr-16 228.44 229.11 -0.37 -1.23 -1.16 2.41 3.24 -0.37 -1.66May-16 229.00 228.91 0.25 -0.26 -0.93 2.13 3.08 -0.13 -1.42Jun-16 230.98 229.47 0.86 0.74 -0.25 2.52 2.93 0.74 -0.57Jul-16 232.10 230.69 0.49 1.60 0.69 2.14 2.80 1.23 -0.09Aug-16 233.05 232.04 0.4 1.77 1.37 1.8 2.7 1.64 0.32Sep-16 234.23 233.13 0.51 1.41 1.59 1.86 2.66 2.16 0.83Oct-16 234.81 234.03 0.24 1.17 1.45 1.78 2.63 2.41 1.08Nov-16 235.64 234.89 0.36 1.11 1.23 1.66 2.51 2.77 1.44Dec-16 236.30 235.58 0.28 0.88 1.05 1.72 2.35 3.06 1.72

2017 Jan-17 237.27 236.41 0.41 1.05 1.01 2.59 2.26 3.48 0.41Feb-17 237.76 237.11 0.21 0.90 0.94 3.56 2.26 3.70 0.62Mar-17 238.66 237.90 0.38 1.00 0.98 4.09 2.35 4.09 1.00Apr-17 239.35 238.59 0.29 0.88 0.92 4.78 2.55 0.29 1.29May-17 239.61 239.21 0.11 0.78 0.88 4.63 2.76 0.40 1.40Jun-17 241.22 240.06 0.67 1.07 0.91 4.43 2.91 1.07 2.08Jul-17 242.65 241.16 0.60 1.38 1.08 4.55 3.12 1.67 2.69Aug-17 243.35 242.41 0.29 1.56 1.34 4.42 3.34 1.97 2.98

1/ December 2006 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: STATIN

Table 1A

Aug. 2017JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES



CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-14 314.37 313.28 0.43 0.96 1.10 5.44 15.56 0.96 2.54

Jul-14 315.52 314.31 0.36 0.98 1.01 5.86 6.17 1.32 2.91Aug-14 316.69 315.53 0.37 1.17 1.04 5.78 6.13 1.70 3.29Sep-14 318.21 316.81 0.48 1.22 1.12 5.80 6.10 2.19 3.79Oct-14 319.11 318.00 0.28 1.14 1.18 5.03 5.97 2.48 4.08Nov-14 319.73 319.02 0.19 0.96 1.11 4.73 5.79 2.68 4.28Dec-14 320.58 319.81 0.27 0.74 0.95 4.56 5.59 2.95 4.56

2015 Jan-15 322.57 320.96 0.62 1.08 0.93 4.53 5.42 3.59 0.62Feb-15 323.37 322.17 0.25 1.14 0.99 4.42 5.27 3.85 0.87Mar-15 324.48 323.47 0.34 1.22 1.15 4.20 5.12 4.20 1.22Apr-15 325.49 324.44 0.31 0.90 1.09 4.17 4.99 0.31 1.53May-15 325.86 325.28 0.12 0.77 0.96 4.10 4.87 0.43 1.65Jun-15 326.83 326.06 0.29 0.72 0.80 3.96 4.75 0.72 1.95Jul-15 327.76 326.82 0.29 0.70 0.73 3.88 4.59 1.01 2.24Aug-15 329.10 327.90 0.41 0.99 0.81 3.92 4.43 1.42 2.66Sep-15 330.37 329.08 0.38 1.08 0.93 3.82 4.27 1.81 3.05Oct-15 330.94 330.13 0.17 0.97 1.01 3.71 4.16 1.99 3.23Nov-15 331.45 330.92 0.16 0.71 0.92 3.67 4.07 2.15 3.39Dec-15 332.33 331.57 0.27 0.60 0.76 3.67 4.00 2.42 3.67



1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

Table 1B

Aug. 2017JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL



CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-14 365.10 363.19 0.54 1.41 1.36 6.10 16.18 1.41 3.03

Jul-14 367.02 365.09 0.52 1.57 1.46 6.51 6.76 1.94 3.57Aug-14 368.94 367.02 0.52 1.59 1.52 6.57 6.70 2.47 4.12Sep-14 371.23 369.06 0.62 1.68 1.62 6.72 6.68 3.11 4.76Oct-14 372.87 371.01 0.44 1.60 1.62 6.35 6.61 3.56 5.23Nov-14 374.06 372.72 0.32 1.39 1.55 6.04 6.51 3.90 5.56Dec-14 375.52 374.15 0.39 1.16 1.38 5.97 6.39 4.30 5.97






JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUELTable 1C

Aug. 2017



CPI-AF Avg.CPIA % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-14 397.22 395.60 0.11 0.88 1.27 8.59 18.21 0.88 2.79

Jul-14 400.38 398.13 0.80 1.93 1.57 9.17 8.87 1.69 3.61Aug-14 400.98 399.53 0.15 1.06 1.29 8.81 8.95 1.84 3.76Sep-14 405.80 402.39 1.20 2.16 1.72 6.68 8.72 3.06 5.01Oct-14 406.75 404.51 0.23 1.59 1.60 6.09 8.44 3.30 5.26Nov-14 405.48 406.01 -0.31 1.12 1.62 5.48 8.11 2.98 4.93Dec-14 405.94 406.06 0.11 0.03 0.91 5.05 7.73 3.10 5.05

2015 Jan-15 404.81 405.41 -0.28 -0.48 0.22 4.10 7.27 2.81 -0.28Feb-15 403.53 404.76 -0.31 -0.48 -0.31 3.64 6.84 2.49 -0.59Mar-15 406.86 405.07 0.82 0.23 -0.24 3.33 6.40 3.33 0.23Apr-15 407.09 405.83 0.06 0.56 0.10 3.64 6.04 0.06 0.28May-15 408.68 407.54 0.39 1.27 0.69 3.00 5.57 0.45 0.67Jun-15 410.30 408.69 0.40 0.85 0.89 3.29 5.14 0.85 1.07Jul-15 409.87 409.62 -0.10 0.68 0.93 2.37 4.59 0.74 0.97Aug-15 409.20 409.79 -0.17 0.13 0.55 2.05 4.04 0.57 0.80Sep-15 408.94 409.34 -0.06 -0.33 0.16 0.77 3.54 0.51 0.74Oct-15 407.80 408.64 -0.28 -0.51 -0.24 0.26 3.06 0.23 0.46Nov-15 408.75 408.49 0.23 -0.11 -0.32 0.81 2.67 0.46 0.69Dec-15 409.29 408.61 0.13 0.09 -0.18 0.83 2.32 0.60 0.83

2016 Jan-16 408.96 409.00 -0.08 0.28 0.09 1.03 2.07 0.52 -0.08Feb-16 407.76 408.67 -0.29 -0.24 0.04 1.05 1.85 0.22 -0.37Mar-16 408.55 408.42 0.19 -0.18 -0.05 0.42 1.61 0.42 -0.18Apr-16 407.88 408.06 -0.16 -0.26 -0.23 0.19 1.33 -0.16 -0.34May-16 409.18 408.53 0.32 0.35 -0.03 0.12 1.09 0.15 -0.03Jun-16 413.61 410.22 1.08 1.24 0.44 0.81 0.89 1.24 1.06Jul-16 415.72 412.83 0.51 1.92 1.17 1.43 0.81 1.76 1.57Aug-16 417.24 415.52 0.36 1.97 1.71 1.96 0.81 2.13 1.94Sep-16 419.18 417.38 0.47 1.35 1.74 2.51 0.95 2.60 2.42Oct-16 419.38 418.60 0.05 0.88 1.40 2.84 1.17 2.65 2.47Nov-16 420.30 419.62 0.22 0.73 0.99 2.83 1.33 2.88 2.69Dec-16 421.07 420.25 0.18 0.45 0.69 2.88 1.51 3.07 2.88




Table 1DJAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE

Aug. 2017


GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 0.82 0.60 0.43

01.1 Food 0.84 0.63 0.44Bread and Cereals 0.10 0.21 0.09Meat 0.25 0.28 0.12Fish and Seafood 1.09 0.15 0.06Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.18 0.04 0.34Oils and Fats 0.26 0.32 0.22Fruit 0.64 0.73 0.66Vegetables and Starchy Foods 1.65 1.77 1.57

Vegetables 1.68 1.69 1.70Starchy Foods 1.52 1.97 1.19

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 0.76 0.53 0.40Food Products n.e.c. 0.22 0.11 0.24

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.33 0.20 0.16Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.71 0.25 0.42Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.18 0.19 0.01

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.58 0.23 0.3403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.31 0.27 0.2003.1 Clothing 0.15 0.23 0.0803.2 Footwear 0.52 0.35 0.3904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS -0.44 -0.29 -0.6904.1 Rentals for Housing 0.00 0.14 0.1404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.07 0.16 0.0104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 0.43 0.43 0.4304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -1.25 -0.78 -1.1005 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.14 0.09 0.0705.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.10 0.13 0.1005.2 Household Textiles 0.01 0.38 0.0005.3 Household Appliances 0.00 0.10 0.0805.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.01 0.05 0.0005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.48 0.20 0.0205.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.18 0.05 0.0706 HEALTH 0.02 0.23 0.2306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.05 0.08 0.0506.2 Health Services 0.00 0.32 0.3507 TRANSPORT 0.09 -0.14 -0.0708 COMMUNICATION 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 1.39 1.64 1.0610 EDUCATION 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.04 0.17 0.01

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 0.12 0.08 0.01

ALL DIVISIONS 0.42 0.29 0.17

Table 2Regional Inflation

Aug-MTH. 2017


Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.61 0.23 96.68

01.1 Food 35.10 0.63 0.22 93.72Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.12 0.01 3.05Meat 7.66 0.20 0.02 6.39Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.40 0.02 8.96Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.22 0.01 2.95Oils and Fats 1.64 0.25 0.00 1.75Fruit 1.14 0.66 0.01 3.20Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 1.64 0.11 47.67

Vegetables 4.64 1.69 0.08 33.09Starchy Foods 2.21 1.49 0.03 13.96

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.53 0.01 3.89Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.21 0.00 1.37

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.22 0.01 2.20Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.47 0.00 1.31Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.11 0.00 0.80

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.40 0.01 2.3103 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.25 0.01 3.4603.1 Clothing 2.12 0.13 0.00 1.1603.2 Footwear 1.22 0.43 0.01 2.2004 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -0.50 -0.06 -26.9804.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.06 0.00 0.8404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.06 0.00 0.2104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 0.43 0.01 2.3804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -1.08 -0.08 -32.3905 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.10 0.00 2.0705.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.10 0.00 0.3005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.11 0.00 0.1405.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.06 0.00 0.1405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.0005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.10 0.00 0.0705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.11 0.00 1.4206 HEALTH 3.29 0.18 0.01 2.4406.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.06 0.00 0.2806.2 Health Services 2.07 0.25 0.01 2.2207 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.03 0.00 -1.8608 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 1.28 0.04 18.1310 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.06 0.00 1.48

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.06 0.01 2.26

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.29 0.24 100.00

Table 3AComponent Contribution to Inflation

Aug. 2017


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI MTH MTH


01.1 Food 35.10 0.36 0.63Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.13 0.12Meat 7.66 0.12 0.20Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.15 0.40Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.17 0.22Oils and Fats 1.64 0.12 0.25Fruit 1.14 0.60 0.66Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 0.87 1.64

Vegetables 4.64 0.73 1.69Starchy Foods 2.21 1.33 1.49



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.05 0.4003 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.05 0.2503.1 Clothing 2.12 0.05 0.1303.2 Footwear 1.22 0.05 0.4304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.83 -0.5004.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.06 0.0604.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.03 0.0604.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.71 0.4304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 3.10 -1.0805 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.16 0.1005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.02 0.1005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.19 0.1105.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.48 0.0605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.09 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.08 0.1005.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.13 0.1106 HEALTH 3.29 0.22 0.1806.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.15 0.0606.2 Health Services 2.07 0.27 0.2507 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.16 -0.0308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.86 1.2810 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.02 0.06



Inflation ComparisonTable 3B

Aug-MTH. 2016 & 2017


Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 3.99 0.06 2.0203 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.13 0.04 1.3803.1 Clothing 2.12 0.98 0.02 0.7603.2 Footwear 1.22 1.36 0.02 0.6104 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 3.73 0.48 17.4304.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.61 0.02 0.7904.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.02 0.02 0.8904.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 3.63 0.05 1.7604.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 5.45 0.39 14.2205 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 1.00 0.05 1.8005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.81 0.01 0.2005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.60 0.01 0.1905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.07 0.01 0.2205.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.59 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.29 0.00 0.0705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.97 0.03 1.1206 HEALTH 3.29 0.80 0.03 0.9606.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.73 0.01 0.3306.2 Health Services 2.07 0.84 0.02 0.6407 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.48 0.32 11.6508 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.48 0.08 3.0610 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.61 0.10 3.65


ALL DIVISIONS 100.0 2.98 2.73 100.00

Table 4ACYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Jan-Aug. 2017


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI CYTD CYTD

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 -1.63 3.91

01.1 Food 35.10 -1.81 4.05Bread and Cereals 6.10 1.37 1.88Meat 7.66 1.96 2.27Fish and Seafood 5.33 1.41 2.94Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.82 1.05Oils and Fats 1.64 1.38 2.31Fruit 1.14 3.48 4.69Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -11.15 8.76

Vegetables 4.64 -12.83 10.31Starchy Foods 2.21 -5.74 4.47



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 2.20 3.9903 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.15 1.1303.1 Clothing 2.12 1.03 0.9803.2 Footwear 1.22 1.33 1.3604 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 4.18 3.7304.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.36 0.6104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.07 3.0204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.57 3.6304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 7.21 5.4505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 3.52 1.0005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.45 0.8105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.91 1.6005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.05 1.0705.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.46 0.5905.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.13 1.2905.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 4.64 0.9706 HEALTH 3.29 1.16 0.8006.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.43 0.7306.2 Health Services 2.07 0.98 0.8407 TRANSPORT 12.82 1.13 2.4808 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.09 2.4810 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.11 1.61



Table 4BCYTD Inflation Comparison

Jan-Aug. 2016 & 2017


Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 3.36 0.05 2.6503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.74 0.02 1.4103.1 Clothing 2.12 0.64 0.01 0.7703.2 Footwear 1.22 0.90 0.01 0.6304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -0.76 -0.10 -5.5604.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.15 0.01 0.3104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.41 0.00 0.1904.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.04 0.00 -0.0304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -1.54 -0.11 -6.2605 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.61 0.03 1.7105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.50 0.00 0.2005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.96 0.00 0.1805.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.46 0.00 0.1505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.38 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.92 0.00 0.0805.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.62 0.02 1.1206 HEALTH 3.29 0.54 0.02 1.0106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.35 0.00 0.2506.2 Health Services 2.07 0.65 0.01 0.7707 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.65 0.34 19.4108 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.18 0.07 4.1810 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.45 0.09 5.13


ALL DIVISIONS 100.0 1.97 1.75 100.00

Table 5AFYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Apr-Aug. 2017


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI FYTD FYTD


01.1 Food 35.10 0.45 3.28Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.58 1.03Meat 7.66 1.16 1.50Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.63 1.71Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.54 0.58Oils and Fats 1.64 0.75 1.73Fruit 1.14 1.62 3.09Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -0.91 8.45

Vegetables 4.64 -1.59 9.57Starchy Foods 2.21 1.21 5.30



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 1.45 3.3603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.82 0.7403.1 Clothing 2.12 0.66 0.6403.2 Footwear 1.22 1.06 0.9004 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 7.03 -0.7604.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.25 0.1504.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.43 0.4104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 4.06 -0.0404.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 12.98 -1.5405 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.78 0.6105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.99 0.5005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.67 0.9605.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.25 0.4605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.70 0.3805.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.41 0.9205.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.68 0.6206 HEALTH 3.29 0.91 0.5406.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.02 0.3506.2 Health Services 2.07 0.84 0.6507 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.53 2.6508 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 1.54 2.1810 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.14 1.45



Table 5BFYTD Inflation Comparison

Apr-Aug. 2016 & 2017


Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 4.63 0.06 1.4403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.59 0.05 1.2003.1 Clothing 2.12 1.52 0.03 0.7303.2 Footwear 1.22 1.71 0.02 0.4704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 6.46 0.82 18.6604.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.70 0.02 0.5604.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.75 0.03 0.6804.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 8.77 0.12 2.6204.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 9.33 0.66 15.0305 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN 4.93 1.65 0.08 1.8405.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.58 0.01 0.2505.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.05 0.01 0.1505.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.76 0.02 0.3505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.12 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.72 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.43 0.05 1.0306 HEALTH 3.29 1.61 0.05 1.2006.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.62 0.02 0.4506.2 Health Services 2.07 1.60 0.03 0.7507 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.66 0.34 7.7208 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.87 0.10 2.1810 EDUCATION 2.14 4.25 0.09 2.0611 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.78 0.11 2.49


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 4.42 4.42 100.00

Table 6Annual Component Contribution to Inflation

Aug. 2017


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