Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast

December 2017

RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION

ⓒ 2018 Bank of Jamaica

Nethersole Place

Kingston

Jamaica

Telephone: (876) 922 0750-9

Fax: (876) 967 4265

Email: library@boj.org.jm

Website: www.boj.org.jm

ISSN 0799 5008

Printed in Jamaica

Preface This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the short-term inflation forecasting model – Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI).

Table of Contents

1.0 Review of Outturn 1

2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast 3

2.1 Trends in demand 3 2.2 Trends in supply 4 2.3 Import prices 5 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation 6

3.0 Revised Forecast 7

4.0 Summary and Conclusion 8

Appendices 9

Tables and Figures Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation ........................ 1

Figure 2: Regional Inflation .......................................... 1

Figure 3: Inflation Contribution .................................. 2

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand .......... 3

Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales ......................... 4

Figure 6: International Oil Prices ............................... 5

Figure 7: International Grains Prices ....................... 5

Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change) ......... 6

Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart...................... 7

Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production ........................................................ 9

Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast

December 2017 Research Services Department 1

1.0 Review of Outturn For December 2017, there was inflation of 0.6 per cent, which compares to inflation of 0.3 per cent recorded for December 2016 and average inflation of 0.3 per cent for December of the last five years. Given the December 2017 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 5.2 per cent, above the 1.7 per cent as at December 2016 and the 4.9 per cent outturn as at November 2017 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation

For December 2017, the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) recorded higher levels of inflation relative to the Other Urban Centres (OUC) and the Rural Area (RA). The main contributor to the higher inflation in GKMA was an increase in Food & Non-Alchoholic Beverages (FNB) due to higher prices for vegetables and starchy (Figure 2). Figure 2: Regional Inflation

The outturn for December 2017 was above the 5-year monthly average for December.

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Inflation in December 2017 was primarily driven by increases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG). The increase in FNB was primarily due to upward movement in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. This stems from a lagged impact of adverse rainfall in October/November 2017 on supplies. The increase in HWEG was largely due to the upward movement in electricity cost. Inflationary pressure for the month was tempered by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution

Inflation for December 2017 primarily reflected increases in vegetables and starchy foods.

Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN

Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast

December 2017 Research Services Department 3

2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast

2.1 Trends in demand The main indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ gave mixed results for the review period. The 12-month average of the real value of imports is estimated to have decelerated to 2.0 per cent for the three months to December 2017 relative to 3.0 per cent1 in November. For the three months ended December 2017, the estimated quarterly 12-month average of the real value of debit and credit card transactions accelerated to 1.6 per cent relative to 0.9 per cent in the previous month (Figure 6).

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand

1 Revised

The indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ gave mixed results.

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2.2 Trends in supply For December 2017, RADA’s forecast suggested that the supply of most starches and vegetables were increasing relative to the previous month. Monthly inflation for the ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ sub-division decelerated in December relative to November 2017. Surveys carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) and CAC indicated a deceleration in the rate of increase in agricultural prices in December 2017 relative to November. Further deceleration is expected for January 2018. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production, decelerated in December 2017 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales

Domestic agriculture commodity prices decelerated in January 2018 relative to December 2017. The indicator of industrial productivity decelerated in December 2017.

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2.3 Import prices In December 2017, crude oil prices rose by 2.3 per cent to an average of US$57.95 per bbl. This increase in prices was influenced by: (i) reports of supply disruptions to a Libyan crude pipeline, (ii) the release of data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which showed a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories and (iii) reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers, led by Russia, agreed to extend the deal to limit crude oil production until end-2018. As at mid-January 2018, crude oil prices rose by 8.4 per cent to an average of US$62.83 per bbl. The increase in prices mainly emanated from rising political tensions in Iran and declining exploration work in the US, both of which are expected to restrict crude oil output.

Figure 6: International Oil Prices

Figure 7: International Grains Prices

Oil prices rose in December 2017 and January 2018.

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For December 2017, the grains price index advanced by 0.7 per cent. This outturn mainly reflected an increase of 2.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent in the prices of hard-wheat and rice, respectively. The increase in the grains index was partly offset by a decline in soft-wheat prices. For January 2018, the grains price index advanced by 6.5 per cent. This outturn mainly reflects increases of 8.9 per cent and 4.6 per cent in the price of rice and corn, respectively. All four grains that the index incorporates advanced.

2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For December 2017, the monthly change in CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-AF) was unchanged at 0.2 per cent. The CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI-FF) and the Trimmed Mean (TRIM) decelerated to 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent relative to 0.2 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively, in the previous month. As at December 2017, two of three annual point-to-point measures of core inflation decelerated relative to November 2017. The CPI-AF and CPI-FF decelerated to 2.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent from 2.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. The TRIM was unchanged at 2.5 per cent. Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change)

The grains price index advanced in December 2017 and January 2018. Two of three measures of annual core inflation decelerated in December 2017 relative to the previous month

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December 2017 Research Services Department 7

3.0 Revised Forecast

Inflation for January 2018 is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG. Though decelerating, upward pressure from FNB is expected due to non-processed food prices stemming from the impact of the adverse rainfall that took place in October/November 2017. An increase in HWEG is expected due to higher costs for Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services related to the Dwelling. Inflation in February and March 2018 is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in the costs of utilities and petrol, reflected in HWEG and TRAN respectively.

Inflation for FY2017/18 is forecasted to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. The overall risks are viewed to be balanced over the next four quarters (see Figure 9). The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are higher than expected increases in agricultural commodity prices, higher than anticipated international grain and oil prices, adverse weather and stronger than anticipated demand conditions. The major downside risks include quicker than anticipated recovery of the agricultural sector following flood rain damage, lower than projected international commodity prices and weaker than anticipated demand.

Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart

Headline inflation for FY2017/18 is anticipated to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent.

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December 2017 Research Services Department 8

4.0 Summary and Conclusion

For December 2017, there was inflation of 0.6 per cent which was primarily driven by increases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG). The increase in FNB primarily reflected the upward movement in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods due to the lagged impact of adverse rainfall in October/November 2017. The increase in HWEG was largely due to the upward movement in electricity cost. Inflationary pressure for the month was tempered by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Inflation in January is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in FNB due to higher prices for vegetables and starchy foods. Inflation in February is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG. For fiscal year 2017/18, inflation is projected to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent.

Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast

December 2017 Research Services Department 9

Appendices Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production

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December 2017 Research Services Department 10

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-14 226.09 224.42 0.10 3.28 3.51 8.20 18.20 5.55 7.31

Nov-14 224.88 225.61 -0.54 1.62 3.16 7.32 8.54 4.98 6.73Dec-14 224.09 225.02 -0.35 -0.78 1.35 6.36 8.27 4.61 6.36

2015 Jan-15 222.98 223.98 -0.50 -1.38 -0.19 5.29 7.94 4.09 -0.50Feb-15 221.53 222.87 -0.65 -1.49 -1.22 4.54 7.59 3.41 -1.14Mar-15 222.69 222.40 0.52 -0.63 -1.16 3.96 7.21 3.96 -0.63Apr-15 223.06 222.43 0.17 0.03 -0.70 4.42 6.94 0.17 -0.46May-15 224.22 223.32 0.52 1.22 0.20 3.97 6.60 0.69 0.06Jun-15 225.30 224.19 0.48 1.17 0.81 4.37 6.30 1.17 0.54Jul-15 227.23 225.58 0.86 1.87 1.42 3.80 5.88 2.04 1.40Aug-15 228.99 227.18 0.78 2.13 1.73 3.48 5.36 2.83 2.19Sep-15 229.97 228.73 0.43 2.07 2.02 1.82 4.76 3.27 2.62Oct-15 230.69 229.88 0.31 1.52 1.91 2.03 4.25 3.59 2.94Nov-15 231.80 230.82 0.48 1.23 1.60 3.08 3.90 4.09 3.44Dec-15 232.30 231.60 0.21 1.01 1.25 3.66 3.68 4.31 3.66

2016 Jan-16 231.28 231.79 -0.44 0.25 0.83 3.72 3.56 3.86 -0.44Feb-16 229.60 231.06 -0.73 -0.95 0.10 3.64 3.48 3.10 -1.16Mar-16 229.29 230.05 -0.14 -1.30 -0.67 2.96 3.40 2.96 -1.30Apr-16 228.44 229.11 -0.37 -1.23 -1.16 2.41 3.24 -0.37 -1.66May-16 229.00 228.91 0.25 -0.26 -0.93 2.13 3.08 -0.13 -1.42Jun-16 230.98 229.47 0.86 0.74 -0.25 2.52 2.93 0.74 -0.57Jul-16 232.10 230.69 0.49 1.60 0.69 2.14 2.80 1.23 -0.09Aug-16 233.05 232.04 0.41 1.77 1.37 1.77 2.65 1.64 0.32Sep-16 234.23 233.13 0.51 1.41 1.59 1.86 2.66 2.16 0.83Oct-16 234.81 234.03 0.24 1.17 1.45 1.78 2.63 2.41 1.08Nov-16 235.64 234.89 0.36 1.11 1.23 1.66 2.51 2.77 1.44Dec-16 236.30 235.58 0.28 0.88 1.05 1.72 2.35 3.06 1.72

2017 Jan-17 237.27 236.41 0.41 1.05 1.01 2.59 2.26 3.48 0.41Feb-17 237.76 237.11 0.21 0.90 0.94 3.56 2.26 3.70 0.62Mar-17 238.66 237.90 0.38 1.00 0.98 4.09 2.35 4.09 1.00Apr-17 239.35 238.59 0.29 0.88 0.92 4.78 2.55 0.29 1.29May-17 239.61 239.21 0.11 0.78 0.88 4.63 2.76 0.40 1.40Jun-17 241.22 240.06 0.67 1.07 0.91 4.43 2.91 1.07 2.08Jul-17 242.65 241.16 0.60 1.38 1.08 4.55 3.12 1.67 2.69Aug-17 243.35 242.41 0.29 1.56 1.34 4.42 3.34 1.97 2.98Sep-17 244.97 243.66 0.67 1.56 1.50 4.58 3.56 2.65 3.67Oct-17 245.84 244.72 0.35 1.31 1.48 4.70 3.81 3.01 4.03Nov-17 247.25 246.02 0.58 1.60 1.49 4.93 4.08 3.60 4.63Dec-17 248.67 247.25 0.58 1.51 1.48 5.24 4.38 4.20 5.24

1/ December 2006 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: STATIN

Table 1A

Dec. 2017JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES

December 2017 Research Services Department 12

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-14 319.11 318.00 0.28 1.14 1.18 5.03 15.27 2.48 4.08

Nov-14 319.73 319.02 0.19 0.96 1.11 4.73 5.79 2.68 4.28Dec-14 320.58 319.81 0.27 0.74 0.95 4.56 5.59 2.95 4.56

2015 Jan-15 322.57 320.96 0.62 1.08 0.93 4.53 5.42 3.59 0.62Feb-15 323.37 322.17 0.25 1.14 0.99 4.42 5.27 3.85 0.87Mar-15 324.48 323.47 0.34 1.22 1.15 4.20 5.12 4.20 1.22Apr-15 325.49 324.44 0.31 0.90 1.09 4.17 4.99 0.31 1.53May-15 325.86 325.28 0.12 0.77 0.96 4.10 4.87 0.43 1.65Jun-15 326.83 326.06 0.29 0.72 0.80 3.96 4.75 0.72 1.95Jul-15 327.76 326.82 0.29 0.70 0.73 3.88 4.59 1.01 2.24Aug-15 329.10 327.90 0.41 0.99 0.81 3.92 4.43 1.42 2.66Sep-15 330.37 329.08 0.38 1.08 0.93 3.82 4.27 1.81 3.05Oct-15 330.94 330.13 0.17 0.97 1.01 3.71 4.16 1.99 3.23Nov-15 331.45 330.92 0.16 0.71 0.92 3.67 4.07 2.15 3.39Dec-15 332.33 331.57 0.27 0.60 0.76 3.67 4.00 2.42 3.67

2016 Jan-16 333.17 332.32 0.25 0.67 0.66 3.28 3.90 2.68 0.25Feb-16 333.49 333.00 0.10 0.62 0.63 3.13 3.79 2.78 0.35Mar-16 334.60 333.75 0.33 0.68 0.66 3.12 3.70 3.12 0.68Apr-16 334.90 334.33 0.09 0.52 0.61 2.89 3.59 0.09 0.77May-16 335.14 334.88 0.07 0.49 0.57 2.85 3.49 0.16 0.84Jun-16 335.81 335.28 0.20 0.36 0.46 2.75 3.39 0.36 1.05Jul-16 336.46 335.80 0.19 0.47 0.44 2.65 3.28 0.56 1.24Aug-16 337.14 336.47 0.20 0.60 0.47 2.44 3.16 0.76 1.45Sep-16 338.22 337.27 0.32 0.72 0.59 2.38 3.04 1.08 1.77Oct-16 338.71 338.02 0.14 0.67 0.66 2.35 2.93 1.23 1.92Nov-16 339.08 338.67 0.11 0.58 0.65 2.30 2.81 1.34 2.03Dec-16 339.87 339.22 0.23 0.49 0.58 2.27 2.70 1.57 2.27

2017 Jan-17 340.45 339.80 0.17 0.51 0.53 2.19 2.61 1.75 0.17Feb-17 341.30 340.54 0.25 0.65 0.55 2.34 2.54 2.00 0.42Mar-17 341.67 341.14 0.11 0.53 0.57 2.11 2.46 2.11 0.53Apr-17 342.25 341.74 0.17 0.53 0.57 2.19 2.40 0.17 0.70May-17 342.91 342.28 0.19 0.47 0.51 2.32 2.36 0.36 0.89Jun-17 343.34 342.83 0.13 0.49 0.50 2.24 2.31 0.49 1.02Jul-17 343.69 343.31 0.10 0.42 0.46 2.15 2.27 0.59 1.12Aug-17 344.37 343.80 0.20 0.43 0.44 2.14 2.25 0.79 1.32Sep-17 345.78 344.61 0.41 0.71 0.52 2.23 2.24 1.20 1.74Oct-17 346.56 345.57 0.23 0.84 0.66 2.32 2.23 1.43 1.97Nov-17 347.16 346.50 0.17 0.81 0.79 2.38 2.24 1.61 2.15Dec-17 347.57 347.10 0.12 0.52 0.72 2.27 2.24 1.73 2.27

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

Table 1B

Dec. 2017JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL

December 2017 Research Services Department 13

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-14 372.87 371.01 0.44 1.60 1.62 6.35 15.95 3.56 5.23

Nov-14 374.06 372.72 0.32 1.39 1.55 6.04 6.51 3.90 5.56Dec-14 375.52 374.15 0.39 1.16 1.38 5.97 6.39 4.30 5.97

2015 Jan-15 377.56 375.72 0.54 1.26 1.27 5.82 6.28 4.87 0.54Feb-15 378.63 377.24 0.28 1.22 1.21 5.73 6.20 5.16 0.83Mar-15 379.87 378.69 0.33 1.16 1.21 5.51 6.11 5.51 1.16Apr-15 381.15 379.88 0.34 0.95 1.11 5.49 6.07 0.34 1.50May-15 381.69 380.90 0.14 0.81 0.97 5.10 5.98 0.48 1.64Jun-15 382.67 381.83 0.26 0.73 0.83 4.81 5.88 0.73 1.90Jul-15 383.66 382.67 0.26 0.66 0.73 4.54 5.71 1.00 2.17Aug-15 384.96 383.76 0.34 0.86 0.75 4.34 5.52 1.34 2.51Sep-15 386.06 384.89 0.29 0.89 0.80 4.00 5.30 1.63 2.81Oct-15 386.82 385.94 0.20 0.82 0.86 3.74 5.08 1.83 3.01Nov-15 387.54 386.81 0.19 0.67 0.79 3.60 4.87 2.02 3.20Dec-15 388.72 387.69 0.30 0.69 0.73 3.51 4.67 2.33 3.51

2016 Jan-16 389.65 388.64 0.24 0.73 0.70 3.20 4.45 2.57 0.24Feb-16 390.24 389.54 0.15 0.70 0.71 3.07 4.23 2.73 0.39Mar-16 391.43 390.44 0.30 0.70 0.71 3.04 4.02 3.04 0.70Apr-16 391.93 391.20 0.13 0.58 0.66 2.83 3.80 0.13 0.82May-16 392.33 391.90 0.10 0.54 0.61 2.79 3.61 0.23 0.93Jun-16 393.23 392.50 0.23 0.46 0.53 2.76 3.44 0.46 1.16Jul-16 393.89 393.15 0.17 0.50 0.50 2.66 3.29 0.63 1.33Aug-16 394.63 393.91 0.19 0.59 0.51 2.51 3.14 0.82 1.52Sep-16 395.67 394.73 0.26 0.62 0.57 2.49 3.01 1.08 1.79Oct-16 396.25 395.52 0.15 0.60 0.60 2.44 2.91 1.23 1.94Nov-16 396.78 396.23 0.13 0.54 0.59 2.38 2.80 1.37 2.07Dec-16 397.70 396.91 0.23 0.51 0.55 2.31 2.70 1.60 2.31

2017 Jan-17 398.67 397.72 0.24 0.61 0.56 2.32 2.63 1.85 0.24Feb-17 399.68 398.69 0.25 0.73 0.62 2.42 2.58 2.11 0.50Mar-17 400.33 399.56 0.16 0.66 0.67 2.27 2.51 2.27 0.66Apr-17 401.18 400.40 0.21 0.63 0.67 2.36 2.48 0.21 0.87May-17 402.03 401.18 0.21 0.59 0.62 2.47 2.45 0.42 1.09Jun-17 402.78 401.99 0.19 0.61 0.61 2.43 2.42 0.61 1.28Jul-17 403.60 402.80 0.20 0.60 0.60 2.47 2.41 0.82 1.48Aug-17 404.47 403.62 0.22 0.61 0.61 2.49 2.40 1.04 1.70Sep-17 405.77 404.61 0.32 0.74 0.65 2.55 2.41 1.36 2.03Oct-17 406.68 405.64 0.22 0.76 0.71 2.63 2.43 1.59 2.26Nov-17 407.52 406.66 0.21 0.75 0.75 2.71 2.45 1.80 2.47Dec-17 408.24 407.48 0.18 0.61 0.71 2.65 2.48 1.98 2.65

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUELTable 1C

Dec. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 14

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

CPI-AF Avg.CPIA % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-14 411.13 408.38 0.30 3.09 3.32 8.05 16.26 5.54 6.93

Nov-14 411.69 410.90 0.14 1.87 2.95 7.57 6.92 5.68 7.07

Dec-14 411.62 411.48 -0.02 0.42 1.78 7.06 6.89 5.66 7.06

2015 Jan-15 412.83 412.05 0.29 0.41 0.90 6.79 6.87 5.97 0.29

Feb-15 412.52 412.32 -0.08 0.20 0.35 6.41 6.84 5.89 0.22

Mar-15 413.17 412.84 0.16 0.37 0.33 6.06 6.81 6.06 0.37

Apr-15 414.72 413.47 0.38 0.46 0.34 6.11 6.83 0.38 0.75

May-15 415.93 414.61 0.29 0.83 0.55 5.97 6.85 0.67 1.05

Jun-15 417.33 415.99 0.34 1.01 0.76 5.80 6.86 1.01 1.39

Jul-15 421.60 418.28 1.02 1.66 1.17 5.72 6.79 2.04 2.42

Aug-15 425.82 421.58 1.00 2.38 1.68 5.37 6.60 3.06 3.45

Sep-15 428.48 425.30 0.62 2.67 2.24 4.54 6.27 3.71 4.09

Oct-15 430.78 428.36 0.54 2.18 2.41 4.78 5.99 4.26 4.65

Nov-15 432.40 430.55 0.38 1.54 2.13 5.03 5.78 4.66 5.05

Dec-15 433.81 432.33 0.33 1.25 1.65 5.39 5.65 5.00 5.39

2016 Jan-16 433.67 433.29 -0.03 0.67 1.15 5.05 5.50 4.96 -0.03

Feb-16 432.68 433.39 -0.23 0.07 0.66 4.89 5.38 4.72 -0.26

Mar-16 432.81 433.05 0.03 -0.23 0.17 4.75 5.27 4.75 -0.23

Apr-16 432.40 432.63 -0.09 -0.29 -0.15 4.26 5.12 -0.09 -0.33

May-16 432.80 432.67 0.09 0.03 -0.17 4.06 4.96 0.00 -0.23

Jun-16 433.79 433.00 0.23 0.23 -0.01 3.94 4.81 0.23 -0.01

Jul-16 434.71 433.76 0.21 0.53 0.26 3.11 4.59 0.44 0.21

Aug-16 435.83 434.77 0.26 0.70 0.49 2.35 4.34 0.70 0.46

Sep-16 437.27 435.94 0.33 0.80 0.68 2.05 4.12 1.03 0.80Oct-16 438.46 437.19 0.27 0.86 0.79 1.78 3.87 1.31 1.07

Nov-16 439.54 438.43 0.25 0.85 0.84 1.65 3.59 1.55 1.32

Dec-16 440.79 439.60 0.28 0.80 0.84 1.61 3.27 1.84 1.61

2017 Jan-17 441.60 440.64 0.18 0.72 0.79 1.83 3.00 2.03 0.18

Feb-17 442.73 441.71 0.26 0.73 0.75 2.32 2.79 2.29 0.44

Mar-17 443.58 442.64 0.19 0.63 0.69 2.49 2.61 2.49 0.63

Apr-17 444.33 443.55 0.17 0.62 0.66 2.76 2.49 0.17 0.80

May-17 445.04 444.32 0.16 0.52 0.59 2.83 2.39 0.33 0.96

Jun-17 447.09 445.49 0.46 0.79 0.64 3.07 2.32 0.79 1.43

Jul-17 449.44 447.19 0.53 1.15 0.82 3.39 2.35 1.32 1.96

Aug-17 450.99 449.17 0.34 1.34 1.09 3.48 2.44 1.67 2.31

Sep-17 452.76 451.06 0.39 1.27 1.25 3.54 2.56 2.07 2.72

Oct-17 453.86 452.54 0.24 0.98 1.20 3.51 2.71 2.32 2.97

Nov-17 456.08 454.24 0.49 1.13 1.13 3.76 2.89 2.82 3.47

Dec-17 457.71 455.88 0.36 1.09 1.07 3.84 3.07 3.18 3.84

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving average

Source: BOJ

Dec. 2017

Table 1DJAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FUEL

December 2017 Research Services Department 15

GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 1.08 0.68 0.57

01.1 Food 1.12 0.71 0.59Bread and Cereals 0.25 0.00 0.02Meat 0.25 0.18 0.49Fish and Seafood 0.16 0.28 0.32Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.24 0.18 0.16Oils and Fats 0.47 0.15 0.22Fruit 0.86 0.57 0.41Vegetables and Starchy Foods 2.51 2.01 1.81

Vegetables 2.50 2.12 1.87Starchy Foods 2.55 1.72 1.63

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 0.75 0.86 0.52Food Products n.e.c. 0.26 0.51 0.43

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.06 0.22 0.28Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.08 0.47 0.42Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.06 0.13 0.20

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.02 0.07 0.0803 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.23 0.15 0.3403.1 Clothing 0.08 0.10 0.5203.2 Footwear 0.42 0.23 0.0604 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 0.91 1.13 1.5704.1 Rentals for Housing 0.25 0.27 0.2504.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.18 0.12 0.1104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling -1.43 -1.43 -1.4304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 2.48 2.42 2.4505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.25 0.19 0.2805.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.10 0.06 0.1105.2 Household Textiles 0.30 0.25 0.3705.3 Household Appliances 1.02 1.01 0.8505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.33 0.20 0.7305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.47 0.15 0.4305.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.15 0.06 0.1806 HEALTH 0.17 0.10 0.1906.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.27 0.21 0.4906.2 Health Services 0.10 0.03 0.0107 TRANSPORT 0.03 0.19 -0.0308 COMMUNICATION 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.07 0.05 0.2910 EDUCATION 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.08 0.07 0.01

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 0.16 0.40 0.28

ALL DIVISIONS 0.69 0.54 0.50

Table 2ARegional Inflation

Dec-MTH. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 16

GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 3.01 2.02 1.60

01.1 Food 3.12 2.12 1.67Bread and Cereals 0.60 0.55 0.70Meat 0.55 0.72 1.07Fish and Seafood 0.71 0.99 0.56Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.39 0.36 0.22Oils and Fats 0.85 0.57 0.45Fruit 2.59 2.09 0.75Vegetables and Starchy Foods 7.14 5.85 5.46

Vegetables 7.62 6.77 6.34Starchy Foods 5.21 3.30 2.89

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 2.34 1.54 1.03Food Products n.e.c. 1.26 1.11 1.32

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.71 0.58 0.49Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.51 0.70 0.73Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.79 0.54 0.35

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.78 1.42 0.9503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.73 1.00 0.6403.1 Clothing 0.16 0.82 0.6403.2 Footwear 1.52 1.38 0.6304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 2.08 1.73 2.0004.1 Rentals for Housing 1.93 0.49 0.4404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.39 1.08 0.4604.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.78 1.78 1.7804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 2.55 2.41 2.4905 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.41 0.55 0.5505.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.39 0.86 1.0105.2 Household Textiles 0.46 1.71 0.4505.3 Household Appliances 1.04 1.26 1.1405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.98 0.52 0.7605.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 1.01 0.55 0.6005.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.29 0.25 0.3106 HEALTH 0.35 0.46 0.5306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.43 0.58 0.7406.2 Health Services 0.29 0.38 0.4107 TRANSPORT 0.92 0.75 0.7308 COMMUNICATION 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.10 0.26 0.6510 EDUCATION 0.11 0.13 0.2511 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.10 0.38 0.02

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 0.44 0.73 0.35

ALL DIVISIONS 1.95 1.41 1.19

Table 2BRegional Inflation

Dec-QTR. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 17

Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.78 0.29 57.50

01.1 Food 35.10 0.82 0.29 56.03Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.08 0.00 0.94Meat 7.66 0.35 0.03 5.18Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.27 0.01 2.77Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.19 0.01 1.15Oils and Fats 1.64 0.28 0.00 0.90Fruit 1.14 0.69 0.01 1.54Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 2.20 0.15 29.53

Vegetables 4.64 2.26 0.10 20.54Starchy Foods 2.21 2.03 0.04 8.77

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.65 0.01 2.19Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.39 0.01 1.17

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.19 0.00 0.89Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.33 0.00 0.43Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.13 0.00 0.44

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.06 0.00 0.1603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.27 0.01 1.7303.1 Clothing 2.12 0.30 0.01 1.2503.2 Footwear 1.22 0.21 0.00 0.5004 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.21 0.15 30.1604.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.26 0.01 1.7704.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.13 0.00 0.2004.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -1.43 -0.02 -3.6804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 2.45 0.17 34.1505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.25 0.01 2.4205.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.10 0.00 0.1305.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.32 0.00 0.2005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.95 0.01 1.0405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.50 0.00 0.0505.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.40 0.00 0.1205.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.14 0.00 0.8906 HEALTH 3.29 0.17 0.01 1.0906.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.37 0.00 0.8806.2 Health Services 2.07 0.04 0.00 0.1507 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.03 0.00 0.8708 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.17 0.01 1.1210 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.05 0.00 0.61

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.27 0.02 4.35

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.58 0.51 100.00

Table 3AComponent Contribution to Inflation

Dec. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 18

Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI MTH MTH

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.39 0.78

01.1 Food 35.10 0.40 0.82Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.19 0.08Meat 7.66 0.23 0.35Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.24 0.27Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.11 0.19Oils and Fats 1.64 0.22 0.28Fruit 1.14 0.49 0.69Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 0.84 2.20

Vegetables 4.64 1.00 2.26Starchy Foods 2.21 0.36 2.03

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.67 0.65Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.31 0.39

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.16 0.19Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.20 0.33Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.15 0.13

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.14 0.0603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.06 0.2703.1 Clothing 2.12 0.06 0.3003.2 Footwear 1.22 0.07 0.2104 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 0.83 1.2104.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.00 0.2604.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.06 0.1304.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 2.54 -1.4304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 0.93 2.4505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.13 0.2505.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.14 0.1005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.05 0.3205.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.29 0.9505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.14 0.5005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.11 0.4005.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.10 0.1406 HEALTH 3.29 0.41 0.1706.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.24 0.3706.2 Health Services 2.07 0.52 0.0407 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.50 0.0308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.03 0.1710 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.10 0.05

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.40 0.27

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.28 0.58

Inflation ComparisonTable 3B

Dec-MTH. 2016 & 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 19

Weight in Quarterly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 2.22 0.83 62.42

01.1 Food 35.10 2.30 0.81 60.81Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.64 0.04 2.94Meat 7.66 0.82 0.06 4.69Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.69 0.04 2.75Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.31 0.01 0.72Oils and Fats 1.64 0.59 0.01 0.73Fruit 1.14 2.03 0.02 1.74Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 6.38 0.44 32.87

Vegetables 4.64 7.12 0.33 24.83Starchy Foods 2.21 3.93 0.09 6.53

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 1.52 0.03 1.97Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 1.26 0.02 1.46

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.58 0.01 1.02Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.66 0.00 0.33Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.54 0.01 0.69

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 1.30 0.02 1.3503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.74 0.02 1.8503.1 Clothing 2.12 0.54 0.01 0.8603.2 Footwear 1.22 1.05 0.01 0.9604 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.97 0.25 18.8704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.33 0.05 3.5204.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.59 0.00 0.3504.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.78 0.02 1.7704.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 2.49 0.18 13.3205 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.50 0.02 1.8505.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.76 0.01 0.3905.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.79 0.00 0.1905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.13 0.01 0.4805.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.80 0.00 0.0305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.65 0.00 0.0705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.29 0.01 0.6906 HEALTH 3.29 0.47 0.02 1.1606.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.62 0.01 0.5706.2 Health Services 2.07 0.37 0.01 0.5807 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.80 0.10 7.7008 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.40 0.01 1.0010 EDUCATION 2.14 0.17 0.00 0.2711 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.13 0.01 0.61

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.46 0.04 2.92

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 1.51 1.33 100.00

Component Contribution to InflationTable 4A

Dec-QTR. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 20

Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI QTR QTR

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 1.39 2.22

01.1 Food 35.10 1.43 2.30Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.42 0.64Meat 7.66 0.50 0.82Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.54 0.69Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.38 0.31Oils and Fats 1.64 0.32 0.59Fruit 1.14 1.67 2.03Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 3.93 6.38

Vegetables 4.64 4.60 7.12Starchy Foods 2.21 1.99 3.93

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 1.69 1.52Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.61 1.26

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.60 0.58Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.67 0.66Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.56 0.54

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.43 1.3003 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.40 0.7403.1 Clothing 2.12 0.46 0.5403.2 Footwear 1.22 0.30 1.0504 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.07 1.9704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.09 1.3304.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.64 0.5904.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 3.24 1.7804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 1.09 2.4905 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.48 0.5005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.64 0.7605.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.28 0.7905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.17 1.1305.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.49 0.8005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.38 0.6505.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.34 0.2906 HEALTH 3.29 0.70 0.4706.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.62 0.6206.2 Health Services 2.07 0.75 0.3707 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.26 0.8008 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.33 0.4010 EDUCATION 2.14 0.23 0.1711 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.15 0.13

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.78 0.46

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.88 1.51

Table 4BInflation Comparison

Dec-QTR. 2016 & 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 21

Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 6.66 2.50 51.82

01.1 Food 35.10 6.92 2.43 50.41Bread and Cereals 6.10 2.77 0.17 3.51Meat 7.66 3.32 0.25 5.27Fish and Seafood 5.33 3.81 0.20 4.21Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 1.43 0.04 0.92Oils and Fats 1.64 3.14 0.05 1.07Fruit 1.14 7.32 0.08 1.73Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 16.93 1.16 24.08

Vegetables 4.64 19.11 0.89 18.42Starchy Foods 2.21 10.57 0.23 4.85

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 5.60 0.10 2.00Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 5.10 0.08 1.64

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 2.08 0.05 1.02Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 2.70 0.02 0.37Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 1.81 0.03 0.64

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.48 0.08 1.5703 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 2.28 0.08 1.5803.1 Clothing 2.12 1.64 0.03 0.7203.2 Footwear 1.22 3.30 0.04 0.8404 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 8.57 1.09 22.7104.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 2.75 0.10 2.0104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.74 0.03 0.6204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 4.48 0.06 1.2304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 13.28 0.95 19.6405 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 1.70 0.08 1.7405.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.16 0.01 0.3105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.83 0.01 0.1905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.46 0.01 0.2905.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.42 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 2.05 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.34 0.04 0.8806 HEALTH 3.29 1.43 0.05 0.9806.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.74 0.02 0.4406.2 Health Services 2.07 1.23 0.03 0.5307 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.48 0.45 9.2608 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.2109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.94 0.10 2.0510 EDUCATION 2.14 2.14 0.05 0.9511 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.74 0.17 3.52

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 2.08 0.17 3.62

ALL DIVISIONS 100.0 5.24 4.82 100.00

Table 5ACYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Jan-Dec. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 22

Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI CYTD CYTD

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.12 6.66

01.1 Food 35.10 -0.02 6.92Bread and Cereals 6.10 1.89 2.77Meat 7.66 2.68 3.32Fish and Seafood 5.33 2.12 3.81Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 1.33 1.43Oils and Fats 1.64 1.84 3.14Fruit 1.14 5.68 7.32Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -6.73 16.93

Vegetables 4.64 -7.86 19.11Starchy Foods 2.21 -2.94 10.57

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 4.58 5.60Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 3.19 5.10

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 2.63 2.08Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 2.74 2.70Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 2.59 1.81

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 2.82 5.4803 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.61 2.2803.1 Clothing 2.12 1.57 1.6403.2 Footwear 1.22 1.68 3.3004 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 6.93 8.5704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.45 2.7504.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.80 3.7404.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 6.61 4.4804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 11.16 13.2805 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 4.18 1.7005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.24 2.1605.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.35 2.8305.3 Household Appliances 0.56 3.76 2.4605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 2.00 1.4205.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.57 2.0505.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 5.12 1.3406 HEALTH 3.29 1.97 1.4306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.33 1.7406.2 Health Services 2.07 1.74 1.2307 TRANSPORT 12.82 1.30 3.4808 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.2509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.47 2.9410 EDUCATION 2.14 4.25 2.1411 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.27 2.74

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 2.60 2.08

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 1.72 5.24

Table 5BCYTD Inflation Comparison

Jan-Dec. 2016 & 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 23

Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 5.88 2.20 57.94

01.1 Food 35.10 6.12 2.15 56.47Bread and Cereals 6.10 1.91 0.12 3.07Meat 7.66 2.54 0.19 5.11Fish and Seafood 5.33 2.57 0.14 3.61Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.96 0.03 0.78Oils and Fats 1.64 2.56 0.04 1.10Fruit 1.14 5.68 0.06 1.70Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 16.60 1.14 29.90

Vegetables 4.64 18.32 0.85 22.35Starchy Foods 2.21 11.45 0.25 6.65

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 4.26 0.07 1.93Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 3.76 0.06 1.53

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 1.61 0.04 1.00Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 2.25 0.01 0.39Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 1.33 0.02 0.59

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 4.84 0.07 1.7603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.89 0.06 1.6603.1 Clothing 2.12 1.29 0.03 0.7203.2 Footwear 1.22 2.83 0.03 0.9104 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 3.87 0.49 12.9904.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 2.28 0.08 2.1104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 1.11 0.01 0.2304.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 0.78 0.01 0.2704.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 5.77 0.41 10.8105 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 1.30 0.06 1.6905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.85 0.01 0.3405.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.18 0.01 0.1805.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.84 0.01 0.2705.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.21 0.00 0.0205.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.68 0.00 0.0705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.99 0.03 0.8206 HEALTH 3.29 1.16 0.04 1.0106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.35 0.02 0.4306.2 Health Services 2.07 1.04 0.02 0.5707 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.65 0.47 12.3008 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.2609 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.63 0.09 2.3310 EDUCATION 2.14 2.14 0.05 1.2011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.58 0.16 4.19

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 1.22 0.10 2.68

ALL DIVISIONS 100.0 4.20 3.80 100.00

Table 6AFYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Apr-Dec. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 24

Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI FYTD FYTD

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 2.27 5.88

01.1 Food 35.10 2.28 6.12Bread and Cereals 6.10 1.09 1.91Meat 7.66 1.88 2.54Fish and Seafood 5.33 1.33 2.57Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 1.04 0.96Oils and Fats 1.64 1.20 2.56Fruit 1.14 3.78 5.68Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 4.03 16.60

Vegetables 4.64 4.01 18.32Starchy Foods 2.21 4.23 11.45

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 3.67 4.26Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 2.28 3.76

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 2.10 1.61Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 2.15 2.25Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 2.08 1.33

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 2.06 4.8403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.28 1.8903.1 Clothing 2.12 1.20 1.2903.2 Footwear 1.22 1.42 2.8304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 9.86 3.8704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.34 2.2804.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 1.14 1.1104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 9.22 0.7804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 17.14 5.7705 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 1.43 1.3005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.77 1.8505.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.11 2.1805.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.95 1.8405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.23 1.2105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.84 1.6805.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.14 0.9906 HEALTH 3.29 1.72 1.1606.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.91 1.3506.2 Health Services 2.07 1.60 1.0407 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.71 3.6508 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.2509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 1.92 2.6310 EDUCATION 2.14 4.25 2.1411 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.30 2.58

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 1.90 1.22

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 3.06 4.20

Table 6BFYTD Inflation Comparison

Apr-Dec. 2016 & 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 25

Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.46 6.66 2.50 47.68

01.1 Food 35.12 6.92 2.43 46.39Bread and Cereals 6.10 2.77 0.17 3.23Meat 7.66 3.32 0.25 4.85Fish and Seafood 5.33 3.81 0.20 3.88Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 1.43 0.04 0.85Oils and Fats 1.64 3.14 0.05 0.98Fruit 1.14 7.32 0.08 1.59Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 16.93 1.16 22.15

Vegetables 4.64 19.11 0.89 16.94Starchy Foods 2.21 10.57 0.23 4.46

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 5.60 0.10 1.84Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 5.10 0.08 1.51

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 2.08 0.05 0.94Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 2.70 0.02 0.34Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 1.81 0.03 0.59

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.48 0.08 1.4503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 2.28 0.08 1.4503.1 Clothing 2.12 1.64 0.03 0.6603.2 Footwear 1.22 3.30 0.04 0.7704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 8.57 1.09 20.8804.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 2.75 0.10 1.8504.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.74 0.03 0.5704.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 4.48 0.06 1.1304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 13.28 0.95 18.0605 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN 4.93 1.70 0.08 1.6005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.16 0.01 0.2905.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.83 0.01 0.1705.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.46 0.01 0.2605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.42 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 2.05 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.34 0.04 0.8106 HEALTH 3.29 1.43 0.05 0.9006.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.74 0.02 0.4006.2 Health Services 2.07 1.23 0.03 0.4907 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.48 0.45 8.5108 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.1909 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.94 0.10 1.8910 EDUCATION 2.14 2.14 0.05 0.8811 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.74 0.17 3.24

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 2.08 0.17 3.33

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 5.24 5.24 100.00

Table 7Annual Component Contribution to Inflation

Dec. 2017

December 2017 Research Services Department 26