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Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast

September 2017

RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION

ⓒ 2017 Bank of Jamaica

Nethersole Place

Kingston

Jamaica

Telephone: (876) 922 0750-9

Fax: (876) 967 4265

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.boj.org.jm

ISSN 0799 5008

Printed in Jamaica

Preface This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the short-term inflation forecasting model – Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI).

Table of Contents

1.0 Review of Outturn 1

2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast 3

2.1 Trends in demand 3 2.2 Trends in supply 4 2.3 Import prices 5 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation 6

3.0 Revised Forecast 7

4.0 Summary and Conclusion 8

Appendices 9

Tables and Figures Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation .............. 1

Figure 2: Regional Inflation ................................ 1

Figure 3: Inflation Contribution ....................... 2

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand 3

Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales .............. 4

Figure 6: International Oil Prices ..................... 5

Figure 7: International Grains Prices ............. 5

Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change) 6

Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart ........... 7

Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production ..................................................................... 9

Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast

September 2017 Research Services Department 1

1.0 Review of Outturn For September 2017, there was inflation of 0.7 per cent, which compares to inflation of 0.5 per cent recorded for September 2016 and average inflation of 1.5 per cent for September of the last five years. Given the September 2017 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 4.6 per cent, above the 1.9 per cent as at September 2016 and the 4.4 per cent outturn as at August 2017 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation

For September 2017, the Other Urban Centres (OUC) recorded higher levels of inflation relative to the Rural Area (RA) and the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA). This was mainly due to the higher price increases for Vegetables & Starchy Foods and Education in the OUC region (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Regional Inflation

The outturn for September 2017 was below the 5-year monthly average for September.



Inflation in September 2017 was primarily driven by increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (HWEG) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB). The increase in HWEG was largely due to the upward movement in electricity rates. The increase in FNB was primarily due to increases in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. Notable increases were also observed for Restaurants & Accommodation Services (R&A), as well as Education (ED). Inflationary pressure for the month was partly offset by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution

Inflation for September 2017 primarily reflected higher electricity rates, as well as increases in vegetables and starchy foods. These were partly offset by a reduction in water and sewage rates.

Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN



2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast

2.1 Trends in demand The main indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ gave mixed results for the review period. The 12-month average of the real value of imports is estimated to have accelerated by 1.6 per cent for the three months to September 2017 relative to 0.9 per cent in August. For the three months ended September 2017, the estimated 12-month average of the real value of debit and credit card transactions decelerated by 2.8 per cent (Figure 6).

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand

The indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ gave mixed results.



2.2 Trends in supply For September 2017, RADA’s forecast had suggested that the supply of most starches and vegetables were decreasing relative to the previous month. In this regard, the prices of vegetable and starchy foods were expected to accelerate in September relative to August 2017. Surveys carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) and CAC indicated a deceleration in the rate of increase in agricultural prices in October 2017 relative to September 2017. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production accelerated in September 2017 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales

Domestic agriculture commodity prices decelerated in September 2017 relative to the previous month. The indicator of industrial productivity accelerated in September 2017.



2.3 Import prices In September 2017 crude oil prices rose by 3.8 per cent to an average of US$49.88 per bbl. The increase in prices mainly emanated from growing expectations that major oil producers will extend output cuts beyond March 2018. Additionally, US government data revealed an unexpected decline in crude inventories. As at October 21 2017, crude oil prices rose by 3.2 per cent to an average of US$51.47 per bbl. The increase in prices mainly emanated from news of output disruptions by Saudi Arabia, Iraq’s Kurdish region, and a decline in US crude oil inventories for the week ended 13 October 2017. Figure 6: International Oil Prices

Figure 7: International Grains Prices

Oil prices rose in September 2017 and is expected to rise for October.

Forecast Actual



For September 2017, the grains price index advanced by 2.3 per cent. This outturn mainly reflected increases of 3.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent in the price of wheat and rice respectively. The increase in the grains index was partly offset by a decline of 0.8 per cent in corn prices. For October 2017, the grains price index is expected to decline by 0.8 per cent. This outturn is expected to mainly a reflect reduction of 3.2 per cent in the price of corn. Declines are also expected in the prices of wheat and rice.

2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For September 2017, monthly CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-AF) accelerated to 0.3 per cent, relative to 0.2 per cent in the previous month. CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI-FF) accelerated to 0.4 per cent, relative to 0.2 per cent in the previous month while the Trimmed Mean (TRIM) remained constant at 0.2 per cent, relative to the previous month. At end-September 2017, all three annual point-to-point measures of core inflation accelerated relative to August 2017. The CPI-AF, CPI-FF and TRIM accelerated to 2.6 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent from 2.5 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 2.2, respectively. Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change)

The grains price index advanced in September 2017 but is expected to decline in October. All three measures of annual core inflation accelerated in September 2017 relative to the previous month



Inflation for October 2017 is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in HWEG. An increase in HWEG is expected due to higher electricity rates. The upward impulse for the month is also expected to emanate from FNB due to an increase in non-processed food prices. A decline in TRAN is expected to partly offset inflation for the month.

For the months of November and December 2017 inflation is projected to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG.

Inflation for FY2017/18 is forecasted to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. The overall risks are viewed to be balanced over the next four quarters (see Figure 9). The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are adverse weather and stronger than anticipated demand conditions. The major downside risks include quicker than anticipated recovery of the agricultural sector following flood rain damage, lower than projected international commodity prices and weaker than anticipated demand.

Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart

Headline inflation for FY2017/18 is anticipated to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent.

3.0 Revised Forecast

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5

Nov

-15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6

Nov

-16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7

Nov

-17

Mar

-18



4.0 Summary and Conclusion

For September 2017, there was inflation of 0.7 per cent which was primarily driven by increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG) and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB). The increase in HWEG was largely due to the upward movement in electricity rates. The increase in FNB primarily reflected the upward movement in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. Notable increases were also observed for Restaurants & Accommodation Services (R&A), as well as Education (ED). Inflationary pressure for the month was partly offset by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Inflation in October is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in HWEG due to higher electricity rates. Inflation in November and December is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG. Inflation for fiscal year 2017/18 is projected to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent.



Appendices Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jul-14 218.92 216.81 1.42 2.48 1.67 8.96 18.38 2.19 3.90

Aug-14 221.30 218.69 1.09 2.62 1.96 9.75 9.05 3.31 5.03Sep-14 225.86 222.03 2.06 4.63 3.25 8.99 8.93 5.44 7.20Oct-14 226.09 224.42 0.10 3.28 3.51 8.20 8.76 5.55 7.31Nov-14 224.88 225.61 -0.54 1.62 3.16 7.32 8.54 4.98 6.73Dec-14 224.09 225.02 -0.35 -0.78 1.35 6.36 8.27 4.61 6.36

2015 Jan-15 222.98 223.98 -0.50 -1.38 -0.19 5.29 7.94 4.09 -0.50Feb-15 221.53 222.87 -0.65 -1.49 -1.22 4.54 7.59 3.41 -1.14Mar-15 222.69 222.40 0.52 -0.63 -1.16 3.96 7.21 3.96 -0.63Apr-15 223.06 222.43 0.17 0.03 -0.70 4.42 6.94 0.17 -0.46May-15 224.22 223.32 0.52 1.22 0.20 3.97 6.60 0.69 0.06Jun-15 225.30 224.19 0.48 1.17 0.81 4.37 6.30 1.17 0.54Jul-15 227.23 225.58 0.86 1.87 1.42 3.80 5.88 2.04 1.40Aug-15 228.99 227.18 0.78 2.13 1.73 3.48 5.36 2.83 2.19Sep-15 229.97 228.73 0.43 2.07 2.02 1.82 4.76 3.27 2.62Oct-15 230.69 229.88 0.31 1.52 1.91 2.03 4.25 3.59 2.94Nov-15 231.80 230.82 0.48 1.23 1.60 3.08 3.90 4.09 3.44Dec-15 232.30 231.60 0.21 1.01 1.25 3.66 3.68 4.31 3.66

2016 Jan-16 231.28 231.79 -0.44 0.25 0.83 3.72 3.56 3.86 -0.44Feb-16 229.60 231.06 -0.73 -0.95 0.10 3.64 3.48 3.10 -1.16Mar-16 229.29 230.05 -0.14 -1.30 -0.67 2.96 3.40 2.96 -1.30Apr-16 228.44 229.11 -0.37 -1.23 -1.16 2.41 3.24 -0.37 -1.66May-16 229.00 228.91 0.25 -0.26 -0.93 2.13 3.08 -0.13 -1.42Jun-16 230.98 229.47 0.86 0.74 -0.25 2.52 2.93 0.74 -0.57Jul-16 232.10 230.69 0.49 1.60 0.69 2.14 2.80 1.23 -0.09Aug-16 233.05 232.04 0.41 1.77 1.37 1.77 2.65 1.64 0.32Sep-16 234.23 233.13 0.5 1.41 1.59 1.9 2.7 2.16 0.83Oct-16 234.81 234.03 0.24 1.17 1.45 1.78 2.63 2.41 1.08Nov-16 235.64 234.89 0.36 1.11 1.23 1.66 2.51 2.77 1.44Dec-16 236.30 235.58 0.28 0.88 1.05 1.72 2.35 3.06 1.72

2017 Jan-17 237.27 236.41 0.41 1.05 1.01 2.59 2.26 3.48 0.41Feb-17 237.76 237.11 0.21 0.90 0.94 3.56 2.26 3.70 0.62Mar-17 238.66 237.90 0.38 1.00 0.98 4.09 2.35 4.09 1.00Apr-17 239.35 238.59 0.29 0.88 0.92 4.78 2.55 0.29 1.29May-17 239.61 239.21 0.11 0.78 0.88 4.63 2.76 0.40 1.40Jun-17 241.22 240.06 0.67 1.07 0.91 4.43 2.91 1.07 2.08Jul-17 242.65 241.16 0.60 1.38 1.08 4.55 3.12 1.67 2.69Aug-17 243.35 242.41 0.29 1.56 1.34 4.42 3.34 1.97 2.98Sep-17 244.97 243.66 0.67 1.56 1.50 4.58 3.56 2.65 3.67

1/ December 2006 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: STATIN

Sep. 2017JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES

Table 1A



CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jul-14 315.52 314.31 0.36 0.98 1.01 5.86 15.50 1.32 2.91

Aug-14 316.69 315.53 0.37 1.17 1.04 5.78 6.13 1.70 3.29Sep-14 318.21 316.81 0.48 1.22 1.12 5.80 6.10 2.19 3.79Oct-14 319.11 318.00 0.28 1.14 1.18 5.03 5.97 2.48 4.08Nov-14 319.73 319.02 0.19 0.96 1.11 4.73 5.79 2.68 4.28Dec-14 320.58 319.81 0.27 0.74 0.95 4.56 5.59 2.95 4.56

2015 Jan-15 322.57 320.96 0.62 1.08 0.93 4.53 5.42 3.59 0.62Feb-15 323.37 322.17 0.25 1.14 0.99 4.42 5.27 3.85 0.87Mar-15 324.48 323.47 0.34 1.22 1.15 4.20 5.12 4.20 1.22Apr-15 325.49 324.44 0.31 0.90 1.09 4.17 4.99 0.31 1.53May-15 325.86 325.28 0.12 0.77 0.96 4.10 4.87 0.43 1.65Jun-15 326.83 326.06 0.29 0.72 0.80 3.96 4.75 0.72 1.95Jul-15 327.76 326.82 0.29 0.70 0.73 3.88 4.59 1.01 2.24Aug-15 329.10 327.90 0.41 0.99 0.81 3.92 4.43 1.42 2.66Sep-15 330.37 329.08 0.38 1.08 0.93 3.82 4.27 1.81 3.05Oct-15 330.94 330.13 0.17 0.97 1.01 3.71 4.16 1.99 3.23Nov-15 331.45 330.92 0.16 0.71 0.92 3.67 4.07 2.15 3.39Dec-15 332.33 331.57 0.27 0.60 0.76 3.67 4.00 2.42 3.67



1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

Sep. 2017JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL

Table 1B



CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jul-14 367.02 365.09 0.52 1.57 1.46 6.51 16.09 1.94 3.57

Aug-14 368.94 367.02 0.52 1.59 1.52 6.57 6.70 2.47 4.12Sep-14 371.23 369.06 0.62 1.68 1.62 6.72 6.68 3.11 4.76Oct-14 372.87 371.01 0.44 1.60 1.62 6.35 6.61 3.56 5.23Nov-14 374.06 372.72 0.32 1.39 1.55 6.04 6.51 3.90 5.56Dec-14 375.52 374.15 0.39 1.16 1.38 5.97 6.39 4.30 5.97






Sep. 2017JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUEL

Table 1C



CPI-F Avg.CPIA % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jul-14 398.79 395.25 1.10 2.03 1.51 6.51 16.26 2.37 3.72

Aug-14 404.13 399.12 1.34 2.96 2.08 7.56 6.91 3.74 5.11Sep-14 409.89 404.27 1.43 3.91 2.97 8.53 6.95 5.22 6.60Oct-14 411.13 408.38 0.30 3.09 3.32 8.05 6.95 5.54 6.93Nov-14 411.69 410.90 0.14 1.87 2.95 7.57 6.92 5.68 7.07Dec-14 411.62 411.48 -0.02 0.42 1.78 7.06 6.89 5.66 7.06

2015 Jan-15 412.83 412.05 0.29 0.41 0.90 6.79 6.87 5.97 0.29Feb-15 412.52 412.32 -0.08 0.20 0.35 6.41 6.84 5.89 0.22Mar-15 413.17 412.84 0.16 0.37 0.33 6.06 6.81 6.06 0.37Apr-15 414.72 413.47 0.38 0.46 0.34 6.11 6.83 0.38 0.75May-15 415.93 414.61 0.29 0.83 0.55 5.97 6.85 0.67 1.05Jun-15 417.33 415.99 0.34 1.01 0.76 5.80 6.86 1.01 1.39Jul-15 421.60 418.28 1.02 1.66 1.17 5.72 6.79 2.04 2.42Aug-15 425.82 421.58 1.00 2.38 1.68 5.37 6.60 3.06 3.45Sep-15 428.48 425.30 0.62 2.67 2.24 4.54 6.27 3.71 4.09Oct-15 430.78 428.36 0.54 2.18 2.41 4.78 5.99 4.26 4.65Nov-15 432.40 430.55 0.38 1.54 2.13 5.03 5.78 4.66 5.05Dec-15 433.81 432.33 0.33 1.25 1.65 5.39 5.65 5.00 5.39

2016 Jan-16 433.67 433.29 -0.03 0.67 1.15 5.05 5.50 4.96 -0.03Feb-16 432.68 433.39 -0.23 0.07 0.66 4.89 5.38 4.72 -0.26Mar-16 432.81 433.05 0.03 -0.23 0.17 4.75 5.27 4.75 -0.23Apr-16 432.40 432.63 -0.09 -0.29 -0.15 4.26 5.12 -0.09 -0.33May-16 432.80 432.67 0.09 0.03 -0.17 4.06 4.96 0.00 -0.23Jun-16 433.79 433.00 0.23 0.23 -0.01 3.94 4.81 0.23 -0.01Jul-16 434.71 433.76 0.21 0.53 0.26 3.11 4.59 0.44 0.21Aug-16 435.83 434.77 0.26 0.70 0.49 2.35 4.34 0.70 0.46Sep-16 437.27 435.94 0.33 0.80 0.68 2.05 4.12 1.03 0.80Oct-16 438.46 437.19 0.27 0.86 0.79 1.78 3.87 1.31 1.07Nov-16 439.54 438.43 0.25 0.85 0.84 1.65 3.59 1.55 1.32Dec-16 440.79 439.60 0.28 0.80 0.84 1.61 3.27 1.84 1.61




Sep. 2017

Table 1DJAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FUEL


GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 0.49 0.50 0.33

01.1 Food 0.50 0.52 0.35Bread and Cereals 0.27 0.23 0.21Meat 0.13 0.28 0.24Fish and Seafood 0.22 0.20 0.10Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.18 0.02 0.00Oils and Fats 0.16 0.28 0.24Fruit 0.66 0.59 -0.02Vegetables and Starchy Foods 0.96 1.30 1.07

Vegetables 0.62 1.02 1.06Starchy Foods 2.41 2.08 1.09

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 0.21 0.23 0.35Food Products n.e.c. 0.43 0.53 0.13

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.31 0.13 0.10Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.85 0.05 0.03Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.11 0.16 0.13

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.19 0.09 0.1103 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.06 0.62 0.5403.1 Clothing 0.02 0.38 0.0503.2 Footwear 0.10 1.13 1.2804 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 2.15 2.65 3.1704.1 Rentals for Housing 0.93 0.59 0.5504.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.00 0.46 0.0004.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling -0.94 -0.94 -0.9404.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 4.81 5.07 4.7105 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.21 0.16 0.1905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 1.20 0.19 0.2505.2 Household Textiles 0.01 0.84 0.4505.3 Household Appliances 0.00 0.41 0.3605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.02 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.29 0.10 0.0705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.04 0.05 0.1306 HEALTH 0.22 0.02 0.1706.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.45 0.05 0.4506.2 Health Services 0.04 0.00 0.0007 TRANSPORT 0.10 0.21 0.2008 COMMUNICATION 0.30 0.26 0.1809 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.02 0.01 0.0910 EDUCATION 0.94 2.86 2.8111 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 1.00 1.05 0.92

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 0.10 0.33 0.18

ALL DIVISIONS 0.63 0.77 0.65

Table 2Regional Inflation

Sep-MTH. 2017


GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)


01.1 Food 3.42 2.16 1.53Bread and Cereals 0.44 0.65 0.47Meat 0.82 1.26 0.98Fish and Seafood 1.88 0.77 0.50Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.46 0.15 0.35Oils and Fats 0.75 1.25 0.90Fruit 3.04 2.56 1.45Vegetables and Starchy Foods 7.84 5.85 5.06




02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.69 0.43 0.5603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.62 1.00 0.7503.1 Clothing 0.52 0.73 0.1403.2 Footwear 0.75 1.54 1.6704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 1.45 1.94 2.0704.1 Rentals for Housing 0.93 0.73 0.6904.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.11 0.66 0.3504.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 0.06 0.06 0.0604.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 2.64 3.27 2.8405 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.42 0.37 0.3405.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 1.48 0.37 0.4205.2 Household Textiles 0.20 2.55 0.5405.3 Household Appliances 0.04 0.54 0.4505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.10 0.09 0.0305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.94 0.42 0.3105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.27 0.11 0.2906 HEALTH 0.30 0.31 0.4806.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.64 0.22 0.6206.2 Health Services 0.04 0.37 0.3907 TRANSPORT 0.51 0.39 0.3808 COMMUNICATION 0.30 0.26 0.1809 RECREATION & CULTURE 1.45 1.77 1.2110 EDUCATION 0.94 2.86 2.8111 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 1.05 1.32 0.95



Regional InflationSep-QTR. 2017

Table 2


Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.42 0.16 23.40

01.1 Food 35.10 0.44 0.15 22.63Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.23 0.01 2.05Meat 7.66 0.21 0.02 2.33Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.16 0.01 1.23Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.07 0.00 0.30Oils and Fats 1.64 0.22 0.00 0.54Fruit 1.14 0.48 0.01 0.80Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 1.06 0.07 10.69

Vegetables 4.64 0.81 0.04 5.54Starchy Foods 2.21 1.84 0.04 5.98

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.28 0.00 0.72Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.32 0.00 0.72

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.17 0.00 0.60Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.27 0.00 0.26Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.13 0.00 0.32

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.13 0.00 0.2603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.40 0.01 1.9803.1 Clothing 2.12 0.11 0.00 0.3403.2 Footwear 1.22 0.86 0.01 1.5504 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 2.65 0.34 49.8404.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.78 0.03 4.0604.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.11 0.00 0.1304.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.94 -0.01 -1.8404.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 4.82 0.34 50.5705 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.19 0.01 1.3905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.58 0.00 0.5905.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.42 0.00 0.2005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.24 0.00 0.2005.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.0005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.10 0.00 0.0205.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.08 0.00 0.3706 HEALTH 3.29 0.15 0.01 0.7506.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.37 0.00 0.6706.2 Health Services 2.07 0.01 0.00 0.0307 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.17 0.02 3.2608 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 1.4509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.05 0.00 0.2410 EDUCATION 2.14 1.97 0.04 6.2111 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.98 0.06 8.93

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.19 0.02 2.30

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.67 0.68 100.00

Sep. 2017Component Contribution to Inflation

Table 3A


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI MTH MTH






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.18 0.1303 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.06 0.4003.1 Clothing 2.12 0.07 0.1103.2 Footwear 1.22 0.05 0.8604 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.55 2.6504.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.00 0.7804.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.06 0.1104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.67 -0.9404.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 2.56 4.8205 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.16 0.1905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.12 0.5805.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.16 0.4205.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.50 0.2405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.04 0.0305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.05 0.1005.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.12 0.0806 HEALTH 3.29 0.10 0.1506.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.25 0.3706.2 Health Services 2.07 0.00 0.0107 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.44 0.1708 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.2509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.04 0.0510 EDUCATION 2.14 4.01 1.9711 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.01 0.98



Table 3B

Sep-MTH. 2016 & 2017Inflation Comparison


Weight in Quarterly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation Inflation






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.89 0.01 0.8703 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.75 0.03 1.7903.1 Clothing 2.12 0.38 0.01 0.5703.2 Footwear 1.22 1.34 0.02 1.1704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.80 0.23 16.3504.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.84 0.03 2.1104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.36 0.00 0.2004.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 0.06 0.00 0.0504.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 2.88 0.20 14.6005 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.38 0.02 1.3205.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.80 0.01 0.3905.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.96 0.00 0.2205.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.33 0.00 0.1305.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.0005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.41 0.00 0.0405.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.24 0.01 0.5406 HEALTH 3.29 0.40 0.01 0.9306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.55 0.01 0.4806.2 Health Services 2.07 0.30 0.01 0.4407 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.43 0.05 3.9008 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.7009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 1.40 0.05 3.3410 EDUCATION 2.14 1.97 0.04 3.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.07 0.07 4.71


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 1.56 1.40 100.00

Sep-QTR. 2017Component Contribution to Inflation

Table 4A


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI QTR QTR






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.57 0.8903 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.18 0.7503.1 Clothing 2.12 0.17 0.3803.2 Footwear 1.22 0.19 1.3404 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 6.22 1.8004.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.06 0.8404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.26 0.3604.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 6.33 0.0604.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 10.64 2.8805 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.46 0.3805.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.39 0.8005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.35 0.9605.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.20 0.3305.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.22 0.0605.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.27 0.4105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.36 0.2406 HEALTH 3.29 0.48 0.4006.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.69 0.5506.2 Health Services 2.07 0.34 0.3007 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.43 0.4308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.2509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 1.09 1.4010 EDUCATION 2.14 4.01 1.9711 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.04 1.07



Inflation ComparisonSep-QTR. 2016 & 2017

Table 4B


Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 4.13 0.06 1.6603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.54 0.05 1.4903.1 Clothing 2.12 1.09 0.02 0.6803.2 Footwear 1.22 2.23 0.03 0.7904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 6.47 0.83 24.1004.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.40 0.05 1.4404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.14 0.03 0.7304.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 2.65 0.04 1.0204.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 10.53 0.75 21.8705 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 1.19 0.06 1.7105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.40 0.01 0.2805.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.03 0.01 0.1905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.31 0.01 0.2105.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.61 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.39 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.05 0.03 0.9706 HEALTH 3.29 0.95 0.03 0.9206.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.11 0.01 0.4006.2 Health Services 2.07 0.85 0.02 0.5207 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.66 0.34 9.9308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.2909 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.53 0.09 2.4810 EDUCATION 2.14 1.97 0.04 1.2311 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.60 0.16 4.70


ALL DIVISIONS 100.0 3.67 3.43 100.00

Jan-Sep. 2017

Table 5ACYTD Component Contribution to Inflation


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI CYTD CYTD

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 -1.25 4.35

01.1 Food 35.10 -1.43 4.51Bread and Cereals 6.10 1.46 2.12Meat 7.66 2.17 2.48Fish and Seafood 5.33 1.57 3.10Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.95 1.12Oils and Fats 1.64 1.51 2.53Fruit 1.14 3.94 5.19Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -10.25 9.91

Vegetables 4.64 -11.91 11.20Starchy Foods 2.21 -4.83 6.39



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 2.38 4.1303 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.21 1.5403.1 Clothing 2.12 1.10 1.0903.2 Footwear 1.22 1.37 2.2304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 5.80 6.4704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.36 1.4004.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.13 3.1404.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 3.27 2.6504.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 9.96 10.5305 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 3.68 1.1905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.58 1.4005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.06 2.0305.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.56 1.3105.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.50 0.6105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.18 1.3905.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 4.76 1.0506 HEALTH 3.29 1.26 0.9506.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.69 1.1106.2 Health Services 2.07 0.98 0.8507 TRANSPORT 12.82 1.57 2.6608 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.2509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.13 2.5310 EDUCATION 2.14 4.01 1.9711 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.12 2.60



CYTD Inflation ComparisonJan-Sep. 2016 & 2017

Table 5B


Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 3.50 0.05 1.9803 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.15 0.04 1.5703.1 Clothing 2.12 0.75 0.02 0.6503.2 Footwear 1.22 1.77 0.02 0.8904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.87 0.24 9.7904.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.94 0.03 1.3604.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.52 0.00 0.1704.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.98 -0.01 -0.5304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 3.20 0.23 9.3805 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.80 0.04 1.6205.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.09 0.01 0.3105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.38 0.00 0.1805.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.70 0.00 0.1605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.40 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.03 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.70 0.02 0.9106 HEALTH 3.29 0.69 0.02 0.9306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.73 0.01 0.3706.2 Health Services 2.07 0.67 0.01 0.5707 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.83 0.36 14.8908 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.4109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.23 0.07 3.0810 EDUCATION 2.14 1.97 0.04 1.7311 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.44 0.15 6.21


ALL DIVISIONS 100.0 2.65 2.43 100.00

Apr-Sep. 2017

Table 6AFYTD Component Contribution to Inflation


Weight in 2016 2017

the CPI FYTD FYTD



Vegetables 4.64 -0.56 10.45Starchy Foods 2.21 2.20 7.24



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 1.63 3.5003 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.88 1.1503.1 Clothing 2.12 0.73 0.7503.2 Footwear 1.22 1.11 1.7704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 8.70 1.8704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.25 0.9404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.50 0.5204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 5.80 -0.9804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 15.88 3.2005 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.94 0.8005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.11 1.0905.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.83 1.3805.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.76 0.7005.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.74 0.4005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.46 1.0305.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.79 0.7006 HEALTH 3.29 1.01 0.6906.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.28 0.7306.2 Health Services 2.07 0.84 0.6707 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.99 2.8308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.2509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 1.59 2.2310 EDUCATION 2.14 4.01 1.9711 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.15 2.44



Table 6BFYTD Inflation Comparison

Apr-Sep. 2016 & 2017


Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 4.58 0.06 1.3803 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.94 0.06 1.4103.1 Clothing 2.12 1.56 0.03 0.7203.2 Footwear 1.22 2.54 0.03 0.6804 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 7.61 0.97 21.1904.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.49 0.05 1.1404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.80 0.03 0.6604.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 5.97 0.08 1.7204.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 11.73 0.84 18.2205 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN 4.93 1.68 0.08 1.8105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.05 0.01 0.3105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.32 0.01 0.1605.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.49 0.01 0.3005.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.11 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.40 0.04 0.9606 HEALTH 3.29 1.66 0.05 1.1906.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.74 0.02 0.4606.2 Health Services 2.07 1.61 0.03 0.7307 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.39 0.31 6.6708 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.25 0.01 0.2209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.87 0.10 2.1010 EDUCATION 2.14 2.21 0.05 1.0311 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.76 0.17 3.72


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 4.58 4.58 100.00

Table 7Annual Component Contribution to Inflation

Sep. 2017


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