TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010

Centre for Global Health Research (CGHR)Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto

prabhat.jha@utoronto.ca

Release: Lancet, May 24, 2011

Sources of support:NIH (US); CIHR, IDRC & LKSKI (Canada)

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

Conclusions- Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades-Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households- 4.2 to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from 1980-2010

- About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total)- About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s- About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s

-Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter- Selective abortion of girls is now common all over India

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

- First study documenting recent trends in conditional sex ratios, over 15 years, from 1990 to 2005- Estimates of the number of selective abortions of girls over the last 3 decades

What’s new about this research?

Trends in “conditional” sex ratios:- Girls or boys don’t “run” in families: the chances of a second girl or boy do not depend on the gender of firstborns - We studied conditional sex ratios and compared against the West- Used 3 rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) - a large, national survey which resembles the whole of India:

How as the study done?

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

NFHS-1

NFHS-2

NFHS-3

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Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl

*Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys.

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Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education

No education

10 or more years of education (matric)

*Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys.

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth

*Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys.

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

Number of aborted girls calculated over last 3 decades using the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census of India.

4-12 million (M) girls aborted over the last 3 decades

1980 1990 2000 2010

Census 1991 Census 2001 Census 2011

0 to 2.0 M aborted girls 1.2 to 4.1 M

aborted girls 3.1 to 6.0 M aborted girlsCGHR.ORG/GIRLS

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1980-2010 totals:4 to 12 M aborted girls

Child sex ratio of girls to boys at ages 0-6 in 2001 and 2011 for the districts of India

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Number of Districts %

Large decline (greater than national decline of 1.4%)

278 49

Small decline (in line with national average)

127 23

No change, or improvement 158 28

• More than double the number of Indian districts (n=405) showed decreasing sex ratios, compared to those showing no change or an improvement (n=158)•Every 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0-6 years implies 1.2 to 3.6 million more selective abortions of girls

District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

Distribution of Indian population living in states with varying child sex ratios

90% of Indians now live in states where the sex ratio is abnormal (i.e. below a natural level of 950-975 females for every 1000 boys)CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Twitter: @CGHR_org

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

Conclusions- Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades-Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households- 4.2 to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from 1980-2010

- About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total)- About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s- About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s

-Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter- Selective abortion of girls is now common all over India

www.cghr.org/girls Twitter: @CGHR_org

- Article- Web appendix- Press release (English and Hindi)- Video press release- FAQs- PowerPoint slides- District-level child sex ratios in 2001 and 2011 in excel format

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

- Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, has fallen during the period of 1990-2005, compared with no change if the firstborn was a boy- This conditional sex ratio fell from 906 in 1990 to 836 in 2005 (natural sex ratio is between 950-975)INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased over the last two decades

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

- Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower in families where mother had 10 years or more of education, compared to those with no education- The gap in selective abortion of girls increased over time between these two groups; conditional sex ratios fell for the most educated, but saw no change for those with no education INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased the most in educated households

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

- Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower for the richest 20% of households, compared to the poorest 20%

- This gap widened between 1990-2005; conditional sex ratios fell for the richest 20% of households

INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased most for the richest 20% of households

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth

CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org