session 27 bo lind

RIMAROCC

Transportforum 12 januari 2011

Guidebok för riskhantering av vägar i ett föränderligt klimat:

RIMAROCC

Bo Lind:

Statens Geotekniska Institut

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Att utveckla en gemensam metodik för riskanalys och riskhantering av vägar med hänsyn till ett förändrat klimat I Europa

Partners

– SGI: Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden)

– Egis: Engineering, Project Development, and motorway Infrastructure Operations (France)

– Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soil and Infrastructure (Netherlands)

– NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway)

Syftet med RIMAROCC

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Programme Leader

– Håkan Nordlander, SRA, SE

Steering Group

• Åsa Lindgren, SRA, SE, (contact person)

• Geoff Richards, (former) Highways Agency, UK

• Alberto Compte, Eva Ruiz-Ayúcar Berlinches, CEDEX, ES

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Feedback

loop

3.

Risk

analy

sis

4.

Risk

evalu

ation

5.

Risk

mitig

ation

6.

Impl

eme

n-

tatio

n of

actio

n

plan

s

2. Risk

identific

ation

7.

Monit

oring

revie

w,

capit

ali-

zatio

n

1.

Cont

ext

analy

sis

Communication

– Består av sju steg– Följer i stort ISO 31000 (FORMALISERAD/TRANSPARENT)– Kompatibel och kan fungera tillsammans med existerande

metoder– För riskhantering i alla skalor (structure, section, network,

territory).

The RIMAROCC METHOD

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


How to use the RIMAROCC Method

1. Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method

2. Case study Network level, France

3. Case study Network level, The Netherlands

4. Case study Section level, Noeway

5. Case study Structure level, Sweden

6. Technical background report

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Extreme

rainfall events

Seasonal and

annual average

rainfall

Sea level

riseMax

temperature

and consecutive

hot days

Draught

Snowfall

Thaw (cycles)

Frost

Extreme

Wind speed

Fog days

Critical climate parameters

Critical climate variables

Major risks to road infrastructure

Extreme rainfall events (heavy showers and long rain periods)

Flooding of roadways

Road erosion, landslides and mudslides that damage roads

Overloading of drainage systems, causing erosion and flooding

Traffic hindrance and safety

- weighted according to their importance for the road sector(1; useful to 4; of primary importance)

- the amount of change is marked, from significant increase,++, to significant decrease --

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Part 1- Basis for climate and

risk management

Part 2 - Method and Guidance

part 3 - Case studies

A Guidebook

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


RIMAROCC-metodiken består av sju steg, med ett antal del-steg. Stegen presenteras på ett enhetligt sätt – en sammanfattande presentation av syftet med momentet samt en lista på del-steg.Del-stegen är utformade på följande sätt:

a) Objectives – describing the objectives of the sub-stepb) Output – describing the outcome of the sub-stepc) Method – presenting the recommended methods or

procedures d) Data collection – describing what data is needed to perform

the sub-step and how to obtain it. e) Examples – each sub-step is provided with an example to

improve the readability. More examples can be found in the case studies.

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 1 – CONTEXT ANALYSIS

1. Objectives- SYFTE

- ORGANISATION och OMGIVANDE FÖRUTSÄTTNINGAR

- DEFINIERA KRITERIER FÖR RISKANALYSEN

2. Sub-steps

•Establish a general context (study area, organisation etc)

•Establish a specific context for a particular scale of analysis (stakeholders etc)

•Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted to each particular scaleof analysis

Arbetsmetod; skrivbord – fält – expertbedömning, etc

Engångsarbete

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Example: the specific context for a network scale analysis, France

RIMAROCC

http://www.egis.fr/

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Example: risk criteria and indicators - section scale analysis, Norway

Risk criteria and indicators on the section scale are presented in three tables;

a) criteria for categorising exposure (exempel nedan)

b) criteria for assessing vulnerability (e.g. design standards, forecast time)

c) criteria for assessing consequences (persons, property etc.)

Criteria for assessing exposure Low Medium High Very high

E1:Frequency of key climate conditions/past extreme events

<0.001/yr 0.001/yr-0.01/yr

0.01/yr-0.1/yr

> 0.1/yr

E2: Exposure duration Hours Days Weeks Months

E3: Exposed area Small area Large area

E4: Exposed objects/people Small number

Large number

Klimathändelsen

ExponeringstidExponeringsområdeExponerade personer

(1) (4)(3)(2)

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 2 – RISK IDENTIFICATION

1.Objectives

- lista tänkbara oönskade händelser

2. Sub-steps

Baseras på riskdefinition i tre delar

– Identify threats ex. KLIMATFAKTORER

– Identify vulnerabilities TILLGÅNGAR/FUNKTIONER

– Identify possible consequences DIREKTA el INDIREKTA

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Example of vulnerabilities analysed on a network scale, France

Exposure to climate events

Section Length in km

Age / design

standards

Traffic (veh./ day) Current

situation With CC

(estimates) *

Sensitive elements in

the infrastructure

AX-1 10-15 < 1960 60,000 – 70,000

Overflow for Q10

+ 10 % additional flow

Undersized drainage system

AX-4 25-30 1960-1970

40,000 – 50,000

Extreme wind speed > 120 km/h

+ 5 % Bridge showing structural defects

AY-1 20-25 1980-1990

20,000 -30,000

Average seasonal rainfall: 500 mm

+ 5 % Hydromorphic grounds

AY-2 20-25 1980-1990

20,000 – 30,000

Average number of frost days: 20

- 5 % Pavement cracks

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 3 – RISK ANALYSIS

1. Objectives- förståelse av riskerna och för vilka risker som behöver åtgärdas

2. Sub-steps• Establish risk chronology and scenarios HÄNDELSEUTVECKLING

• Determine the impact of risk SCENARIER - KONSEKVENSER

• Evaluate occurrences SANNOLIKHET FÖR HÄNDELSE

• Provide a risk overview POÄNGSATT RISKTABELL

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Example of risk overview at the structure scale, Sweden

Dura

tion

Are

a

People

/Obje

ct

Speed

Info

rmatio

n

Know

ledge

Sta

ndard

Pers

ons

Pro

pert

y

Environ.

Fin

ancia

l

Inta

ngib

le

E1 E2 E3 S1 S2 S3 S4 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

R1: Extreme

rain + flooding

0,08 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1

R2: Extreme

rain + collapse

0,02 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1

R3: Spring flood

+ flooding

0,08 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1

R4: Spring flood

+ collapse

0,02 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1

Risk scenario ConsequencesProbability

for risk

scenario

(year-1)

Exposure Sensitivity

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 4 – RISK EVALUATION

1. Objectives - jämföra och prioritera mellan olika risker

2. Sub-steps• Risk prioritisation

• Compare climate risk to other kinds of risk

• Determine which risks are acceptable

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Example of risk prioritisation at the structure scale, SwedenRisk matrix with probability and weighted consequences indicated for four risk scenarios.

Once in:

10 years

100 years

1000 years

Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

Probability

Consequence

4

3

2

1

1 2 3 4

R1

R3

R2

R4

Increases with climate change

Decreases with climate change

No change expected

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 5 – RISK MITIGATION

1. Objectives- beskriva och prioritera mellan olika åtgärdsalternativ

2. Sub-steps• Identify options ÅTGÄRDSALTERNATIV

• Appraise options PRIORITERA MELLAN ÅTGÄRDER

• Negotiation with funding agencies SÄKERSTÄLL ATT FÖRESLAGNA ÅTGÄRDER KAN IMPLEMENTERAS

• Present an action plan UTARBETA ÅTGÄRDSPLAN

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Example of mitigation option appraisal on a section/network scale The strategy sheet example below is based on assumptions but gives a good insight into how the adaptation

tipping point in a strategy analysis sheet can be used to choose a strategy, as a combination of several related

measures. The x-axis is the time scale, and the blue arrows show the timeframe for which each measure is effective. The measure’s tipping point is where the blue arrow ends. At present, measures I, V, VI, VII and VIII are applicable. Measures III and IV will only become effective after climate change has already developed. The green arrows show the possibilities of changing from the current measure to another measure. The effects of each measure on the consequence criteria are scored as described above, as are the implementation costs.

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 6 – IMPLEMENTATIONOF ACTION PLAN

1. Objectives

- detaljerad åtgärdsplan

- etablera samverkan mellan berörda aktörer

2. Sub-steps• Develop an action plan on each level of responsibility

• Implement an adaptation action planÅTGÄRDER GENOMFÖRS

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Step 7 – MONITORING,REVIEW & CAPITALISATION

1. Objectives

- en lärprocess, utvärdera arbetet och organisationen. Kan något bli bättre?

2. Sub-steps

• Regular monitoring and review

• Re-plan in case of new data or a delay in implementation

• Capitalisation of return of experience on both climatic events and progress of implementation

http://www.egis.fr/

RIMAROCC


Tack!

[email protected]

Date

http://www.egis.fr/

mailto:[email protected]

session 27 bo lind

Technology

spring flood 0

scale

criteria

extreme 0

data

rimarocc

indicators

measure