Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case

Studies

András Zénó Gyöngyösi, Tamás Weidinger, László Haszpra, Zsuzsanna Iványi and Hiroaki

Kondo

The NIRE CO2 @ ETA model

Overview

Short model description i. NIREii. ETA

Implementationi. NIREii. ETA

Coupling of NIRE to ETA Sensitivity studies Case studies Conclusion, future works

Model Description

➲ NIRE ● Mesoscale circulation model (simple dynamics)● Dispersion model

➲ Boussinesq-approximation➲ Anelastic equations➲ Terrain following s-coordinate (vrbl. res.)➲ Staggered (Arakawa) grid➲ First order turbulent closure (K ~ Richardson #)

● Vertical diff – implicit solver● Horizontal diff – just for numerical stability

➲ Srfc: Monin-Obuhov; Energy Balance Eq.➲ Soil: Thermal conductivity eq.

Surface parameterization

H2O: passive scalar, saturation @ srfc➲ No clouds, relevant in sfc heat balanceCO2: ➲ Vegetation (Photosynth.+Res.) for each veg. mosaic => synthesized flux➲ Anthropogen:

● area sources @ srfc (heating and traffic)● large stacks – plume rise (CONCAWE)

Boundary conditioning; Numerical integration

➲ Lateral bndry● Flow relaxation zone

➲ Top bndry● Sponge layer

➲ Initialization● Dynamical init. – spin-up

➲ Time integration: Leap frog – Forward each 20th step to adjust numerical mode

Implementation

➲ Surface files● IGBP landcover landuse database (USGS)

➲ Sensitivity test● Dynamics

● Superadiabatic stratification● Strong wind

➲ Basin● Carpathian Basin @ bndry: nonlinear

interaction topography -- bndry

Model bndry interacts w/ topography – strong nonlinear effectsMore effective bndry conditions are necessary

Sensitivity Study

Mixing layer depth (Convective PBL) @ different cloud amounts

Time evolution of CO2 in the model domain

The “Meteorological driver”

➲ NCEP/ETA model (EMS NWS/NOAA):● Limited area NWP model● Primitive hydrostatic eqs – non-hydrost.

Option● Modified terrain following coordinate system

● Eta (modified sigma)● approx horiz. srfs separatio nof lee flow

● sfc & PBL param. sophisticated

Adaptation

•“Operational” run for Central Europe•”Operational” run for Central Europe

Adaptation of ETA

+ Budapest

Init & bndry conds downloaded from NCEP every morning

Dynamical Test (non-hydrostatic option)

➲ Hydrostatic equations, non-hydrostatic effects parameterized

● Small-scale effect are more non-hydrost.● Small impact on solutions● In the standard run non-hydrost. Option not

implemented● DF init. not used

H500 Psfc

The Mass fieldPressure falling

(approaching system)

4105 p

p

510H

H

NH departure

∆h~-.4—1.4h~5530—5620

9m

The Wind field

NH wind strongermore KE generation

NH departures associated with topography

Coupling NIRE to ETA

• Super-adiabatic lapse rate instab• Extreme wind speed • instab @ lat & top bndry• Flow relax term • changed to sine shape• Top sponge layer enlarged• Adiabat. adjustment:

A Case study

• Cold inversion in the Basin

02 February 2006

“Inversion case”

• Convective boundary layer after the decay of the inversion

06 February 2006

“Convection case”

Effect of a single large stack

● Plume rise (CONCAWE – Briggs, 1968)● 200 m high● 280 m3/s @ 3000C

● 1000 t/day CO2 emission● Located in the middle of the domain

Time evolution of temperature

Inversion Convection

Temperature Profiles @ different time of the day

Inversion Convection

Time evolution of CO2

Inversion Convection

CO2 Profiles @ different time of the day

Inversion Convection

12 LST

15 LST

18 LST

22 LST

Conclusion

➲ NIRE is able to provide realistic meteorological conditions in suitable initial and boundary conditions taken from ETA

➲ The modular structure of it makes them suitable for PBL tests

➲ The coupled system is able to calculate concentration for different extreme meteorological conditions

Future works

➲ Introduction of newer parameterization schemes into the CO2 model – further sensitivity and case studies

➲ Daily coupled system runs for the estimation of annual variation of surface fluxes

➲ Estimation of annual Carbon budget of the Carpatian Basin