securing livelihoods

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Secure livelihoods Visions of a better future A job is a privilege of a very small minority. Aidan Eyakuze, associate regional director, Society for International Development Summary of a meeting hosted by The Rockefeller Foundation With insights from

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Page 1: Securing Livelihoods

Secure livelihoods Visions of a better future

A job is a privilege of a very small minority. Aidan Eyakuze, associate regional director, Society for International Development

Summary of a meeting hosted by The Rockefeller Foundation

With insights from

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The “Livelihoods” meeting was convened by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Development Centre with support from the Rockefeller Foundation.

The work of The Rockefeller Foundation is deeply rooted in the idea of improving livelihoods, or bolstering the means by which people support themselves, because it believes good livelihoods underpin human progress. The Foundation’s efforts in this area range from helping smallholder farmers avoid post-harvest loss to spotlighting novel approaches for training underserved U.S. youth to studying how targeted outsourcing schemes might boost job opportunities for high-potential, disadvantaged youth in Africa.

Indeed, this work to support steady livelihood prospects is one of four “pillars” that comprise the Foundation’s overall mission; the other three focus on improving health, cities and ecosystems. Fortifying these four areas, the Foundation believes, can best help it meet its two primary goals: advancing inclusive economies that offer opportunities for broadly shared prosperity, and building greater resilience by helping people, communities and institutions prepare for, withstand and emerge stronger from acute shocks and chronic stresses.

Introduction from the Rockefeller Foundation

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Globally, livelihoods are under great strain as tasks previously performed by humans are increasingly handled by machines. In some developing countries, there are not enough jobs for the sheer number of youth, despite technological gains that are bringing income-generating and financial-inclusion opportunities to people previously frozen out. Much of the developed world, meanwhile, struggles with an aging workforce whose members will increasingly tap strained government coffers. The specter of growing social unrest, fresh financial crises and more climate-induced natural disasters adds another dimension to global livelihoods uncertainty. Simply put, for a secure livelihood, people will increasingly need more than one option to support themselves and their families. For policymakers and civil society, the confluence of these driving and unpredictable forces will make economic resilience and inclusion all the more critical.

To address this looming crisis, in August 2014 the Foundation hosted a meeting on “Securing Livelihoods.” This was the fourth in its series of high-level meetings focused on strengthening the Foundation’s work in its four pillar areas. By bringing together diverse, sometimes opposing perspectives, the Foundation hopes to help develop strategies and solutions to fortify humanity’s ability to anticipate and adapt to rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges. For more information on the series, please visit www.visionariesunbound.com.

The meeting, held from August 4 to 8 at the Foundation’s Bellagio Conference Center in Italy, was convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Development Centre. More than 25 high-level participants, including employers, entrepreneurs, educators, academics, financiers and development experts met to better understand current and future livelihoods challenges, and to explore possible solutions. The Economist Intelligence Unit wrote this summary report in full, with the exception of the introduction and conclusion, which were written by The Rockefeller Foundation.

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“Securing Livelihoods” brought together more than 25 experts to explore ways to expand and fortify livelihood opportunities

Executive Summary

Many colliding forces and the rapid pace of change are bringing a seismic shift to livelihoods. Drivers include powerful technologies and the automation of many tasks previously performed by humans. Meanwhile, globalization has fueled outsourcing and entrepreneurial opportunities in many countries.

But the benefits of these changes are not evenly distributed. Globally, record unemployment and wide income gaps persist. Paradoxically, educators cannot keep pace with the rapidly changing needs of today’s employers. In parallel, aging workforces in some parts of the world and enormous youth populations in others threaten livelihoods. Climate change–driven storms and floods may also erode economic security and trigger natural resources and food scarcity. Political changes and fiscal crises are both drivers and consequences of the unrest that often feeds on hopelessness about the security of one’s livelihood.

But there is hope. Governments, universities and employers are forging cooperative relationships through research efforts, job-stimulus initiatives, new funding arrangements and training programs to better prepare people for the future. Educational institutions

If solutions focus only on growth, we miss the opportunity for well-being.Angela Wilkinson, strategic foresight counselor, OECD

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and think tanks are revamping curriculums. And employers are finding novel ways to build a pipeline of skilled workers, lest their competitors leap ahead.

As the evidence mounts and attention shifts to urgent livelihoods needs, a number of strategies have emerged from experts. Many of these surfaced in Bellagio. They range from leveraging technology to connect and broaden livelihood skill-sets with more customized livelihood opportunities; to harnessing innovation and creativity for new types of flexible short- and long-term livelihoods and social support structures; to designing holistic, lifelong learning and economic support mechanisms to sustain the economic and more-intangible benefits of livelihoods. By building and strengthening ties between educators, employers, local and national governments and other players in the livelihoods ecosystem, we can fill current gaps and create new opportunities for all, and in particular, the disadvantaged.

Four of these strategies were believed to be particularly effective at resolving some of the critical, interlinked challenges to move forward in research and action in this area. These future solutions illustrate ways that innovations in technology, social science and policy can be combined to broaden livelihoods opportunities:

QUALITY OF LIFE MATERIAL CONDITIONS

Health status

Work-life balance

Education and skills

Social connections

Civic engagement and governance

Environmental quality

Personal security

Subjective well-being

Income and wealth

Jobs and earnings

Housing

GDP Regrettables

Sustainability of well-being over timeRequires preserving different types of capital over time

Natural capital Economic capital Human capital Social capital

Source: OECD Development Centre

Individual well-being

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1. Technology as an enabler of lifelong learning. New technologies can be quickly leveraged by all population segments for the greater good, for better access to education. One proposed solution, called ”Plato,” calls for a standardized but customizable structure that integrates advanced technology, such as universal broadband and tablets, with human guidance, such as personal education guides and career coaches. Through such a program, all communities and individuals including the poor and vulnerable can constantly acquire and renew skills, tap into opportunities, and forge stronger community ties in a portable manner, particularly over critical transition periods.

2. Creative financing as a lever for change. Communities and individuals, particularly the underserved need capital for specific reasons and at critical points in their lives such as after secondary-school completion or before retirement, to acquire new skills, search for work or start entrepreneurial endeavors. High-impact cash transfers can help upskill individuals, finance apprenticeships or ease the adjustment to better employment options. Funds might come from the public purse, philanthropy, carbon taxes, social-impact bonds or peer-to-peer lending based on one’s age and circumstances. Possible preconditions include education completion, a “life plan,” secure money transfers and success metrics. 3. Government as a backstop for universal well-being, social inclusion and income. The shift to a knowledge-based economy and the potentially devastating impact of uncertain global forces demand that governments better meet their populations’ basic needs. They can do this through guaranteed minimum incomes; with safety nets for healthcare, pensions and unemployment; and by funding state-backed local job, training and education incubators. But multisectoral collaboration through, for instance, income earning and learning centers where individuals — particularly the disadvantaged — can build community, collaborate and contribute will be critical. Volunteer work options, in which individuals receive subsidies for contributions to society, may include planting village gardens, improving infrastructure, restoring ecosystems, or tutoring.

4. Cross-sectoral collaboration to formalize the informal and share its benefits. Many new tools and approaches can help informal settlements gain legitimacy, social protection and opportunity. These include technology, legislative developments and community organizing. The “Live it up” working-group solution builds on these, with technology as its cornerstone—in a mobile platform, software and tablets. The ”urban passport” it proposed is a universal, electronic ID card guaranteeing access to education and healthcare, and protection in such areas as property ownership. Later the card could help build financial inclusion through mobile banking services.

Increasingly, disruption is shifting the power and opportunity for livelihoods from employers and governments to individuals and communities. Technology, institutional failure and the fluid movement of ideas, education, people and capital portend a brighter livelihoods future. These solutions provide ideas of how innovations in technology, social science and policy can be combined to help fill gaps in the system. We believe in this future. We hope you will join us on this journey.

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The world of work has changed profoundly in 200 years. Over that time, most households left behind agricultural tasks to labor in industry, although different regions are at different stages in this transition, and vast gaps remain in opportunity and incomes between cities and rural areas. Many countries also harnessed natural resources, technology and human intellect to build new industries—and in the process built new educational systems to supply a ready labor pool.

This gradual but dramatic economic shift brought with it a host of issues and opportunities. Long hours and often-unsafe working environments in factories pushed many workers to form unions to demand fair pay and workplace safety. This shift helped seed “social protection” programs providing healthcare, housing assistance and unemployment insurance to help offset income depletion from illness, natural disaster or job loss. Other “safety net” measures, such as maternity leave and post-retirement pensions, are now common in wealthier countries, and are gaining traction in countries where incomes are rising along with a more formal, or organized, workforce. In most instances, governments have financed these measures through payroll taxes, with private enterprise often supporting additional training. Collectively, these and other elements form the fabric of “livelihoods”—or the ability to support oneself now and in the future.

But today a number of colliding forces and the rapid pace of change are bringing an even more seismic shift to livelihoods. Driving these changes are powerful technologies and the automation of many tasks previously performed by humans. Meanwhile, globalization and more relaxed employment and funds-transfer rules in many countries have fueled outsourcing and entrepreneurial opportunities.

The benefits of many of these changes, however, are not evenly distributed. In many parts of the world, record unemployment and wide income gaps persist between those with sought-after skills and those who are unprepared for the modern economy. In many countries, educators and governments cannot keep pace with the rapidly changing needs of today’s employers. In parallel, widely diverging demographic shifts, such as aging workforces in China and Russia and large unemployed youth populations in many developing nations in Africa and the Middle East, threaten livelihoods. Climate change adds another layer of complexity. By driving an increase in storms, drought and natural disaster, climate change may erode economic security and trigger natural resources and food scarcity. In more economically mature countries, shrinking social-protection programs amid rising pension costs are other causes for concern. Political changes and fiscal crises are both drivers and consequences of the unrest that often feeds on hopelessness about one’s capacity to provide for oneself and one’s family in the future.

Visions of a better future

Secure livelihoods

How do you move from individual entrepreneur to small business? From blueprint to scale?Rachel Slater, research fellow, Social Protection Programme, Overseas Development Institute

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But there is hope. Governments, universities and employers are forging cooperative relationships through research efforts, job-stimulus initiatives, new funding arrangements and training programs that can better prepare people for the future. Educational institutions and think tanks are revamping curriculums and pushing policies and schemes to help create jobs. And employers are finding novel ways to build a pipeline of skilled workers, lest their competitors leap ahead, that benefit both them and their employees’ long-term prospects. Some corporations in wealthier countries are also bolstering internal training efforts, in some cases reigniting earlier practices many had abandoned. In the global south, microfinance organizations and educated individuals are helping seed budding ventures that foster workforce adaptability, resilience and constant reinvention. Still, the examples are too few, too fragmented and too small scale to materially improve livelihoods globally. As the pace of change in an uncertain world increases, there is no time to lose.

To accelerate action, in August 2014 the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Development Centre and The Rockefeller Foundation brought together more than 25 experts at its conference center in Bellagio, Italy. Over four days of conversation, the group discussed overlapping areas of opportunity for critical players in the livelihoods puzzle, including employers, entrepreneurs, educators, academics, financiers and development experts.

Global leaders at the meeting explored these issues and challenged current assumptions. They analyzed failures and identified strategies to overcome them—and proposed big, bold ideas and approaches to implementing them. Participants represented organizations ranging from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences and the World Bank to Fundación Paraguaya and Cisco Systems (see list of participants in the appendix); their diverse perspectives helped surface strategies to prepare the world for and perhaps help it pivot toward a very different future.

“Be bold and audacious in your ideas; be practical in their implementation,” Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China business and finance editor at The Economist, urged participants at the meeting’s opening. “Think about the connections among the different threads. We have a tremendous opportunity to strengthen links and shape organizational change.”

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The urgent and complex nature of today’s enmeshed livelihoods challenges—and the collective brainpower required to spark solutions both triggered by and solved through these very challenges—has spawned much livelihoods research. Much of this research addresses the root causes and consequences of livelihoods challenges.

A useful starting point for the livelihoods discussion is The Future of Livelihoods, Shaping Factors and Key Issues, a report produced by an OECD consultant for the meeting. The research outlines pressing livelihood-linked challenges driven by economics, demographics, the environment and technology. Below is a brief overview of these forces, with all statistics from the OECD unless otherwise noted:

Economics. The recent global financial crisis eroded gains made in prior years in many countries, crimped household and corporate spending, and hampered the hiring of new workers. High government debt levels in some countries led to cuts in funding for education and for social-protection and job-creation programs.

But many of these changes may be structural and, thus, permanent. Irrevocable technological forces are driving productivity gains as well as income inequality, as capital generated by the high-skills information economy becomes increasingly concentrated in fewer hands. Although economic growth is now more evenly dispersed across the world, income inequality is rising within nations. The share of national income going to the richest 1% of Americans has doubled since 1980, from 10% to 20%, roughly where it was a century ago. America’s Gini coefficient for disposable incomes is 0.39, up almost 30% since 1980. Sweden’s is up by 25%, while China’s has risen about 50%, to 0.42. Education and skills play a key role in this equation because better livelihood options tend to favor those with both.

As a result, high unemployment persists globally, and the specter of jobless growth hangs over many countries. Hardest hit, perhaps, are heavily indebted European nations and the transitioning economies of the south, like India and Brazil, that borrowed heavily during economic upswings. The debate continues about whether governments should pursue further painful austerity measures or dedicate more state funds to stimulate economic growth and job creation. Meanwhile, tougher banking regulations imposed to avoid future financial crises have weighed on corporate borrowing—and hiring.

Demographics. Due to better and broader access to healthcare, the developed world is living longer; its families are smaller. Since the 1950s, average life expectancy has risen by 20 years, while the average fertility rate has halved, according to the

Recent Research

How do you transition from a world in which most people get their livelihoods from the provision of labor, to one in which livelihoods come from the ownership of capital? Conal Smith, section head, Well-being and Household Conditions, OECD

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World Economic Forum. As a result, higher pension and health-care spending in many European countries is straining already stretched state budgets. On average, spending on health and pensions by OECD countries stands at 7.8% and 6.6% of GDP, respectively. How these programs will continue to be funded at these levels remains an open question. Possible solutions include increasing taxes, the retirement age or immigration.

Meanwhile, many developing countries face a very different problem: finding suitable employment for populations with large numbers of people under age 30. Many speak of a “demographic dividend” for countries on the cusp of economic growth. India could add about 2% per annum to its per capita GDP growth over the next two decades if it can find work for its many young people. But in Africa and many other places, this goal has proved elusive because a country’s capacity to absorb youth into the workforce is limited by sheer numbers. This “youth bulge” also concerns policymakers, because without productive activity, the risk of social unrest rises, which could, in turn, trigger more crime, drug trafficking and gang violence.

Stoking the fire for terrorism, cyber terrorism and black-market activities are expanding, dense cities in a number of countries. Urbanization is increasing at an unprecedented rate in Africa, triggered in part by the shift from agrarian to industrialized livelihoods.

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Today, over half the global population lives in urban areas, and this share is expected to grow to 60% by 2030, led by developing countries. In 2015, of 22 megacities with 10 million or more inhabitants, only 6 will be in OECD countries. Although the centralized nature of cities can boost access to job opportunities, education, healthcare and transport, a rise in slums and pollution are often a byproduct of rapid development. In some Asian cities, pollution has already reached levels that far exceed those deemed safe by the World Health Organization. Repurposing farmland for homes and office buildings also exacerbates deteriorating food security and ecosystems.

Environment. Weather pattern shifts induced by climate change have serious implications for livelihoods. More drought, flooding, storms and sea level rise threaten many industries; farming and fisheries could suffer from reduced rainfall or faster water evaporation from glaciers due to rising temperatures. Diverse effects of climate change are expected to lower GDP in East and South Asia by more than 5% by 2060. Many experts believe that only decisive action by governments can begin to shift this trajectory. The poor will likely suffer most because their houses are often ill-fit to weather storms, and they are less likely to be insured against disaster.

Energy and natural resources. Rising global consumption of energy and raw materials amid growing shortages will generate a host of challenges. Global economic growth alone will fuel an 80% increase in energy demand by 2050, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Meanwhile, overall water demand is forecast to rise some 55% over this period. The ensuing competition for water will affect many economic activities and lives, particularly in Africa and the Southern and Central parts of Asia. Around 2.3 billion more people than today are projected to live in river basins experiencing severe water stress by then.

Technology. The transformative nature of technology is well known. Today, the boom in mobile phones and Internet connectivity is improving access to healthcare, education, markets, banking and civic involvement. Technology’s impact on livelihoods will likely grow. The Internet now boasts 2.5 billion users, and 6 billion people have access to mobile phones. Africa has twice as many mobile phones as the United States; in Africa, and in many developing regions, phones are increasingly used for payments, such as remittances and financial transfers, helping to fill the gap in more-developed financial infrastructure, according to the Oxford Martin Commission.

Many hope that technology skill gains will help offset job losses as more routine tasks are automated. Some 47% of jobs are at risk of being automated, according to research by Carl Benedikt Frey of the Oxford Martin School and Michael A. Osborne of the Department of Engineering Science at the University of Oxford. In 30 years, labor’s share of global output has shrunk to 59% from 64%. Low-skilled jobs are particularly threatened, but as technology advances, the risk is spreading to white-collar occupations such as accounting, legal work and technical writing. “Within 20 years, we will debate whether humans should be allowed on our roads. There won’t be much work for humans to do,” said Vivek Wadhwa, a fellow at Stanford Law School, at the meeting.

Are there technologies emerging that can enhance productivity at the lower end of the skill chain? Kevin O’Neil, Associate Director, The Rockefeller Foundation

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Jobs are about more than meeting our needs, they bring meaning [and] anchor social stability.Adrian Wooldridge, management editor at The Economist

But as technology takes some jobs away, it also opens the door to others. Technology’s potential to drive livelihoods growth was explored in two papers produced by The Rockefeller Foundation and distributed prior to the meeting.

Job Creation Through Building the Field of Impact Sourcing describes the potential to exponentially grow business-processing outsourcing opportunities for those at the bottom of the pyramid in Africa, particularly disadvantaged youth, with examples of successful ”impact sourcing” (IS) initiatives in India, South Africa and Kenya, based on different business models. Data suggests that incomes for IS employees can rise as much as 200%.

Digital Jobs in Africa explores opportunities for jobs based on telecommunications and technology advances in Africa for high-potential youth in six African countries. Even a 10% increase in telephone, mobile phone, Internet and broadband use in the developing world can boost a country’s gross domestic product by up to 1.38%, according to the World Bank. Because 60% of Africa’s unemployed are youth, technology offers great promise. For a sense of the opportunity, look to Ghana. Youth who work in the country’s IT Enabled Services Secretariat program earn more than five times the minimum wage.

As this research shows, technological innovation coupled with the right training for workers will open new doors to high-quality jobs in industries ranging from technology to health and clean energy. Some believe innovation has lagged in recent years due to shrinking corporate budgets in the wake of the global recession and social protests, such as the anti-GMO movement in Europe. But others foresee an innovation wave, fueled by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and robotics. With the right mix of incentives and collaboration, they argue, the benefits will help boost even unskilled livelihood possibilities and quality of life across the globe.

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Indeed, to boost the prospects of livelihoods, great possibilities exist to exploit ”positive spirals,” or common, overlapping areas of interest among many sectors through mutually beneficial trade-offs. After animated discussion at the meeting, a number of strategies emerged that incorporate a range of approaches, at different stages of life that embrace resilience and reinvention, to broaden livelihood options. Broadly speaking, these strategies focus on expanded roles for individuals, communities, organizations and institutions—and a more holistic idea of livelihoods as a source of meaning in life, and as an anchor of social stability. These strategies include:

1. Make inclusiveness the cornerstone of livelihood-building efforts. In the past, the concept of livelihoods was restricted to the concrete subjects of income-generating opportunities and safety nets. But demographic and technological shifts demand that efforts to bolster livelihoods also consider the more intangible benefits of good livelihoods, such as emotional satisfaction, social interaction and contributing to society. By viewing livelihoods through this wider lens, these fundamental needs and contributions can be better met across the globe, particularly among the young, poor and aging.

2. Build connections between new players to fill gaps in the system. In the past, educational institutions were tasked with upskilling individuals, governments with meeting basic needs, and employers with creating jobs that generated income for the general population. Today’s unpredictable and fast-changing world means many of these roles have changed, thus opening opportunities for other groups, initiatives and approaches to help fill unmet needs. Such gaps include urgent needs for financial help and training during critical phases of life, such as postsecondary school or retirement, because training, social-protection programs and employers are no longer tightly linked in the developed world. Nongovernmental organizations can also help fill government knowledge gaps regarding how to meet the needs of the poor and vulnerable by imparting lessons learned about how communities and individuals became more resilient and adaptable amid livelihoods challenges. Fresh, cross-sectoral approaches will better and more quickly fill these gaps.

3. Shift responsibility to individuals to create ever-changing livelihoods for a lifetime. Work is becoming increasingly self-directed as we move further into the knowledge-based economy and as organizations demand more precise skills than in the past, when humans performed many repetitive tasks. As a result, opportunities and the approaches to livelihoods are many and varied. These include freelance work, “bite-size” tasks, micro-jobs, just-in-time contracts and later-in-life

Strategies

New technology platforms enable reach, flexibility and the portability of solutions for better livelihoods.Angela Wilkinson, OECD

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consulting. And in the agrarian world, this might mean self-sufficient agricultural patches using advanced technologies such as drip irrigation, advanced storage crop rotations—even the 3D printing of spare parts.

“With all these technologies, we can create community islands of self-sufficiency,” said Jean-Francois Rischard, former vicepresident of the World Bank. Individuals and communities that embrace the idea of control and responsibility for livelihoods will best equip themselves for the future. But we will build more-resilient and economically inclusive communities only if we have a broader global commitment to disseminating and democratizing the access to appropriate knowledge and technologies, with more-focused government and employer efforts to meet more intangible livelihood needs.

4. But empower the community to broaden livelihood opportunities. As the control and responsibility for livelihoods increasingly shifts to communities and individuals, creatively pooling assets to meet needs previously filled by governments and employers takes on new importance. In this “shared economy,” homes, cars and other goods are leased to others for supplemental income and for the redistribution of opportunity, while communities pool resources for insurance, large investments or village infrastructure improvement. Volunteer contributions such as gardening in a community garden or teaching could be rendered in exchange for an income transfer and help build the pool of expertise. Financial innovation, such as micro-insurance and the ability to decentralize service delivery through technological advancements like off-grid electricity provision, make these sorts of exchanges or micro-contributions possible.

5. And fortify the government’s role as spark and backstop, rather than the key livelihoods driver. Even the most prosperous societies, at the best of times, have not fully met the livelihoods needs of their people. Today’s more-complex, demographically changing and uncertain world in which the social contract between employer and employee for an income and social benefits in exchange for work is eroding demands that individuals and governments take on a more prominent role in meeting these needs. Individuals, communities and the government, in particular, can help fund and stimulate job creation and build social-protection programs that meet both income and softer livelihood needs, such as safety nets and socially inclusive, community-based endeavors.

6. Tap into creative financing for government-backed income transfers. Already stretched government budgets demand more creative and broader approaches to funding more socially inclusive and effective livelihoods-building programs such as cash transfers, guaranteed work programs, wage or savings subsidies and grants for self-investment. Sources of funding for these initiatives might include establishing or expanding carbon or wealth taxes—or issuing social-impact bonds for social-protection and job-creation programs. Enlisting the support of, and working with, potential new contributors such as billionaire philanthrocapitalists, or tapping endowments from foundations will help

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bolster resources for such programs. In this process, because some options may be politically unpopular or the approaches new, aligning interests to forge effective alliances across sectors will be critical. Broader acceptance of the idea that we are transitioning from a world in which people’s livelihoods are based on the labor provided to one based on the ownership of capital will help expand funding sources.

7. Harness technology to build skills, connect interested parties to build new businesses, and to disseminate news about livelihoods opportunities to communities and individuals. Education and technology are increasingly the root of secure livelihoods. But the benefits of technology disproportionately flow to more-skilled and well-capitalized parties. Opportunities abound to broaden education, skill-building and livelihood opportunities, with the right medium and scale, particularly among those with fewer skills, and the poor and vulnerable. “Before, technological revolutions happened over centuries. Now they happen over years,” said Adrian Wooldridge, management editor at The Economist. “As the pace of change increases, so does our adaptability.”

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8. Leverage the free flow of people, ideas, education and money to match skills and needs. In wealthier countries, migration has helped meet changing labor needs, with those most in need employing economic migrants in search of opportunity. Expanding this approach to tap into part-time or remote work, through, for example, ”snackable” tasks over the Internet or in discreet life phases, will help meet employer needs and generate income for households and government-backed public goods provision. Many unmet needs can be filled through innovative approaches that tap into the free flow of tasks and ideas across borders, such as Task Rabbit, a website that helps match chores or jobs with interested parties. Demographic concentrations (for example, the large pool of high-potential youth in Africa) who can help meet demand for needs in countries with aging populations (such as those of Northern Europe or China) make such models complementary. “In Tanzania, 800,000 people join the labor force every year and become “Me Incs,“ said Aidan Eyakuze, associate regional director at the Society for International Development. “Our army of young people can provide companionship, care and other services, like reading the newspaper to the elderly elsewhere. Meanwhile, old people can impart wisdom.”

9. Embrace the idea of learning as a lifelong process. In the past, education was a finite process, with a clear beginning, middle and end, to acquire basic skills for secure, lifelong employment. That is no longer true. The rapidly evolving needs of employers demand that individuals and communities constantly acquire skills and knowledge that better equip them for livelihoods. In the process, learning centers, job-creation incubators and the ability to work remotely or learn from on-the-job training will play a more central role to tap the best from all people, particularly the disadvantaged. “Education isn’t something that is ‘done’ to you. Learning is something you do for yourself,” added Mr. Eyakuze. “Your university will continue training you throughout your lifetime.”

10. Wring value from a world in which we may work far less by tapping the strengths of communities and individuals to help solve critical problems and build inclusiveness, foster human interaction and knowledge acquisition. Employer or educator substitutes for the traditional workplace or school, such as community learning centers, can help individuals and communities, particularly the underserved, build confidence, spark ideas, develop contacts and create a sense of community.

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A number of possible solutions are emerging from such strategies, which seek to expand the involvement of the state, community or individual, to open a universe of livelihoods opportunities. These are often based on innovative technology, financing or delivery models.

To settle on such solutions, experts are untangling the drivers, identifying obstacles and ways to overcome them, and analyzing the roles of actors, such as government, communities, corporations and markets. They are envisioning a different future to draw out key themes and to imagine new possibilities that may inspire other solutions, even if the specific action does not materialize. This process at the Bellagio meeting helped surface mutually beneficial approaches and tools, and approaches that might improve the prospects for livelihoods. Future solutions include:

1. Technology as an enabler of lifelong learning. When new technology arrives, seasoned knowledge workers first tap into and benefit from its availability. The rapid uptake of cellular phones in Africa and Asia, however, shows that new technologies can be quickly leveraged by all segments of the population for the greater good, for better access to healthcare, finance and education.

One such proposed solution, named ”Plato,” calls for synchronizing and formalizing the availability of mechanisms for lifelong learning through a standardized but customizable structure that integrates broadband and tablets and any future emerging technologies with human guidance, such as personal education guides and career coaches. And it connects these with existing school networks and standards to fortify livelihood prospects. Through such an approach, communities and individuals from all backgrounds, particularly the underserved, can constantly acquire and renew skills, tap into opportunities and forge stronger community ties in a portable manner.

“Education is a game changer, and social inclusion is more important than ever,” said Tae Yoo, senior vice president of corporate affairs at Cisco Systems.

This process could be particularly powerful at the critical knowledge-acquisition and transition periods, such as the prekindergarten, postsecondary and senior levels, and for poor, vulnerable or transitioning populations.

“We want a lifelong learning environment that evaluates changing skills required

Future solutions

How do you lead with experimentation – how do you push that further, faster? Conal Smith, section head, Well-being and Household Conditions, OECD.

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in different career groups, and that maps those to a long-term personal tutor system,” added Ms. Yoo. “This system can match skills with jobs, and evolves and adjusts throughout a learner’s life.”

2. Creative financing as a lever for change. Communities and individuals need capital for specific reasons and at critical points in their lives, to acquire new skills, search for work or embark on entrepreneurial activities. This need is particularly acute for the poor and vulnerable. Earlier access to capital at these moments will help individuals build it throughout their lives, through savings accounts, investments and new ventures that generate income for themselves and those they employ. These, in turn, can help spur job creation if ventures scale up, and reduce resources needed for social-protection programs.

By harnessing high-impact cash transfers from governments, foundations or other organizations, to help upskill individuals, finance apprenticeships, or to ease the adjustment to better employment options through such critical periods as postsecondary education or preretirement transitions, individuals are better equipped for livelihoods over their lifetimes. Simply put, such cash transfers connected to schools and the labor market can help overcome the ”failure to launch” problem, particularly in developing countries that grapple with enormous numbers of youth.

Sources that might help fund such a scheme include the public purse or philanthropy; carbon or oil taxes; social-impact bonds; or peer-to-peer or youth-to-youth lending, with the size and duration of such grants tied to one’s age and specific national circumstances. But for such a program to be effective, preconditions are critical. These might include education completion and some sort of life plan, secure money transfers, and metrics to measure success through school enrollment or workplace engagement. “The idea is to create a larger ecosystem for better options, to shepherd youth to employment,” said Kevin O’Neil, associate director at The Rockefeller Foundation. “This gets them through a critical period and makes them employable for life.”

3. Government as backstop for universal well-being, social inclusion and income. Full employment is an illusion. The erosion of the social contract with employers, the shift to a knowledge-based economy, and the potentially devastating impact of uncertain global forces demand that governments serve as backstop to ensure that their populations’ basic needs are met while new livelihoods models emerge.

The government can help meet these needs through a guaranteed minimum income, by providing safety nets for healthcare, pensions and unemployment insurance, and by funding state-backed local job, training and education incubators.

But collaboration across many sectors for a broader government role as a livelihoods facilitator will be critical. Joint efforts may include income earning

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and learning centers where individuals can build community, collaborate and contribute toward work for all. Volunteer work options, in which individuals receive government subsidies for some social contribution to society, may include planting village gardens, improving infrastructure, restoring ecosystems, tutoring or launching job-creation schemes.

“We envision a marketplace ranging from paid internships to private-sector jobs to paid students, with the government running a portfolio of pro-bono contributions and safety nets, in conjunction with community centers and incubators,” said Vijay Vaitheeswaran of The Economist. “Everyone who wants to work can, and meets [his or her] basic needs. “There are more paths to work than being paid.”

4. Cross-sectoral collaboration to formalize the informal and share its benefits. The centralized nature of cities helps pool resources and opportunity for large, diverse and dense populations. But this concentration can also seed inequality, because all too often the poor and vulnerable are left with fewer resources, rights and opportunities to make a living than formal settlements with formal workforces. “How can we tackle the root causes of urban migration? How do we eliminate or reduce stress migration?” asked Asher Hasan, founder of Naya Jeevan. “We want to provide rural migrants a path to property rights and sustainable livelihoods.”

In this regard, a number of new tools and approaches are now available to communities of all means to help them on their path toward legitimacy, social protection and opportunity. These include technology, legislative developments and community organizing. The ”Live it up” working group solution builds on these elements, with technology as its cornerstone—in a mobile platform, software and tablets.

One possible solution may involve an “urban passport,” through a universal, electronic identification card guaranteeing basic rights such as access to education and healthcare, which brings protection in key areas including property ownership. Over time, such a card could be used to build financial inclusion through mobile banking services. By focusing on slums, the flow of migration from rural areas to cities may recede, and better-paid opportunities and protection in informal settlements may take root. “Livelihoods have two elements: income and what you do it for,” said Conal Smith, section head, well-being and household conditions, at the OECD. “If urbanization is losing your community then there is a trade-off.”

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As we look ahead to a world in which livelihoods will suffer from many structural, demographic and economic forces, we struggle with disruptive change.

But, paradoxically, as the solutions discussed above show, disruption is also shifting the power and opportunity for livelihoods from employers and governments to individuals and communities. New ways that livelihoods are fostered, funded and scaled up will broaden opportunity, particularly for the underserved.

As we unravel the drivers and identify overlapping interests that, if connected and acted upon, can help shift the current trajectory, technology, institutional failure and the fluid movement of ideas, education, people and capital portend a brighter future across the globe. But we must first fill gaps in the system, and governments must take on a vital backstop role, to ensure universal well-being through stimulus funding, income transfers and social protection.

In this optimistic scenario, the more empowered and tailored control of options will improve our income earning, well-being and self-fulfillment prospects—through emotional satisfaction and social contributions—at all levels, so that all of us can learn, adapt and strengthen our means and abilities. We believe in this future. We hope you will join us on this journey.

Conclusion

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Top, left to right: Betty Sue Flowers, Jean Eric Aubert, Conal Smith, Imraan Valodia and Fernanda Bak

Middle: Vijay Vaitheeswaran, Kevin O’Neil, Jean-François Rischard, John Irons, Ahmadou Mbaye, Angela Wilkinson, Aidan Eyakuze, Rachel Slater, Vivek Wadhwa, Carl Dahlman and Mamadou Biteye

Bottom: Mauricio Santa Maria, Benyamin Lakitan, Ashar Hasan, Carolyn Whelan, Busisiwe Ntuli, Robert Garris, Tae Yoo, Janki Andharia, Samantha Silberberg, Adrian Wooldridge, Eriko Suzuta, Yang Du and Luis Fernando Sanabria.

LivelihoodsMeeting Participants

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1. Janki AndhariaProfessorTata Institute of Social Sciences

2. Jean Eric AubertConsultantOECD Development Centre

3. Sara Bernstein Executive DirectorCentre for Development and Enterprise

4. Mamadou Biteye Managing DirectorThe Rockefeller Foundation

5. Carl Dahlman Head of Global Research and Thematic DivisionOECD Development Centre

6. Yang Du ProfessorInstitute of Population and Labour EconomicsChinese Academy of Sciences

7. Aidan Eyakuze Associate Regional DirectorSociety for International Development

8. Betty Sue Flowers Professor EmeritusUniversity of Texas at Austin

9. Robert Garris Managing DirectorThe Rockefeller Foundation

10. Ashar Hasan Founder and Chief Executive OfficerNaya Jeevan

11. John Irons Managing DirectorThe Rockefeller Foundation

12. Benyamin Lakitan Senior AdviserMinistry of Research and Technology, Indonesia

13. Ahmadou Mbaye ProfessorUniversity Cheikh Anta Diop Economics

14. Busisiwe Ntuli Director, Technology for Sustainable LivelihoodsDept. of Science & Technology, South Africa

15. Kevin O’Neil Associate DirectorThe Rockefeller Foundation

16. Jean-François Rischard Former Vice PresidentWorld Bank

17. Luis Fernando Sanabria General ManagerFundación Paraguaya

18. Mauricio Santa Maria Former minister of Health and Social ProtectionColombia

19. Rachel Slater Head of Programme, Social ProtectionOverseas Development Institute

20. Conal Smith Section head, Well-being/Household ConditionsOECD

21. Eriko Suzuta ConsultantOECD Development Centre

22. Imraan Valodia Dean, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg

23. Vijay Vaitheeswaran China Business and Finance EditorThe Economist

24. Vivek Wadhwa Fellow Stanford University Law School

25. Angela Wilkinson Strategic Foresight Counsellor, OECD

26. Adrian Wooldridge Management EditorThe Economist

27. Tae Yoo Senior Vice PresidentCisco Systems

“Secure Livelihoods” was convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Development Centre with support from The Rockefeller Foundation.

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