securing landscape resilience to tropical cyclones in australia's wet tropics under a changing...

Securing Landscape Resilience to Tropical Cyclonesin Australia’s Wet Tropics under a ChangingClimate: Lessons from Cyclones Larry (and Yasi)geor_724 15..30

STEPHEN M. TURTONCentre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Sciences, School of Earth and EnvironmentalSciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia. Email: [email protected]

Received 6 June 2011; Revised 28 August 2011; Accepted 8 September 2011

AbstractTropical cyclones are part of the ecosystem dynamics of rainforests in the WetTropics of Australia, and intact forest areas show remarkable ability to recoverfrom cyclonic disturbance. However, forest remnants, littoral rainforests, andriparian vegetation have been shown to be particularly susceptible to cyclonicwinds and post-disturbance weed invasion with consequences for their long-termconservation values. I evaluate the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclonesimpacting the Wet Tropics region since records began in 1858. The recent Cat-egory 4 cyclones featured in this study, Larry and Yasi, had return intervals ofabout one in 70 years. I then discuss the natural resource management (NRM)lessons from Cyclone Larry and put forward practical recommendations on howauthorities should deal with natural resources in the clean-up and recovery phases.I argue that natural resources must be treated as valuable commodities by includ-ing their protection and rehabilitation in the same way that human livelihoods,infrastructure and industry are covered in disaster management planning. Thisrequires NRM issues to be included in disaster response policy and legislation,together with ensuring that structures are in place to mitigate the effects ofcyclones on natural resources. There is a general consensus that tropical cycloneintensity will increase under climate change while frequency will decreaseslightly. This has profound implications for the long-term sustainability of eco-systems in the Wet Tropics. There is a real risk of a phase shift to vegetation typesdominated by disturbance species, including weeds, at the expense of cycloneintolerant species. It is therefore important that we begin to build more cycloneresilient landscapes to reduce the vulnerability of our remaining rainforest habi-tats and primary production systems. Securing landscape resilience requiresgreater NRM investment in key areas, including landscape connectivity, riverrepair, protecting coastal assets and cyclone resilient farms. While climate changeposes a long-term threat to the rainforests of the region, we need to focus on moreimmediate pressures affecting our remaining biodiversity, notably clearing ofnative habitat, habitat fragmentation and degradation, and biosecurity issues.

KEYWORDS tropical cyclones; ecological effects; resilience; natural resources;biodiversity conservation; contested landscapes; climate change; rainforest

I dedicate this paper to Dr Len Webb AO (1920–2008) for inspiring me to study the myriad interactions between tropicalcyclones and the contested rainforest landscapes in the Wet Tropics region of Australia.

15Geographical Research • February 2012 • 50(1):15–30doi: 10.1111/j.1745-5871.2011.00724.x

IntroductionNatural and anthropogenic disturbances shapeforest ecosystems by controlling their structure,species composition, and functional processes(Dale et al., 2001). The rainforests of the WetTropics of north-east Australia (Figure 1) havebeen shaped by their natural disturbance andhuman land use history over many millennia, butparticularly over the past 150 years (Pannell,2008; Stork et al., 2008; Turton, 2008a). Rain-forests of the region are affected by a range ofnatural disturbances, including infrequent butdamaging bush fires, droughts, floods, occasionallandslides, severe thunderstorms, and tropicalcyclones. All these natural disturbances interactin complex ways with anthropogenic distur-bances across the landscape, such as forest clear-ing and habitat fragmentation (see Stork andTurton, 2008).

Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanesand typhoons) range in intensity from compara-tively weak systems, where maximum windspeeds do not generally exceed 160 km h-1, toextremely destructive, where maximum windgusts have been recorded in excess of 350 km h-1

(Turton, 2008b). Severe cyclones cause wide-spread defoliation of canopy trees, removalof vines and epiphytes, along with breakage ofcrown stems and significant tree falls (Lugo,2008; Turton and Stork, 2008). Significantchanges in canopy cover result in profoundchanges in under- and mid-storey microclimates(Turton, 1992; Bellingham et al., 1996; Lugoand Scatena, 1996; Turton and Siegenthaler,2004), and complex vegetation and faunalresponses to newly created light, temperature,and moisture regimes (Bellingham et al., 1994;Harrington et al., 1997; Lugo, 2008). Cyclonicdisturbance also accelerates the invasion ofexotic tree and understorey weed species leadingto a decline in biodiversity of native species(Bellingham et al., 2005; Murphy et al., 2008).In a recent review, it has been shown that therehas been an increase in the numbers of weedspecies in the Wet Tropics region over recentdecades, with many of these species favouringdisturbed habitats (Stork et al., 2011).

Tropical cyclones impact on rainforests at boththe landscape and local scales (Boose et al., 1994;Grove et al., 2000; Turton and Stork, 2008).Impacts at the landscape scale (>10 km) are theresult of complex interactions of anthropogenic,meteorological, topographical and biotic factors.Damage patterns at this scale are driven by threemain factors (Boose et al., 1994): (1) wind veloc-

ity gradients resulting from cyclone size, speed offorward movement, cyclone intensity and prox-imity to the storm track, complicated by localconvective-scale effects; (2) variations in siteexposure and other effects of local topography(e.g. severe lee waves or leeward acceleration,windward exposure, topographic shading); and(3) differential response of individual ecosystemsto wind disturbance as a function of species com-position and forest structure.

Impacts at the more local scale (<1 km) arelargely controlled by forest composition andstructure, as well as smaller-scale topographi-cal features (Boose et al., 1994). At this scale,impact patterns are generally associated withindividual wind gusts created by turbulent eddiesand with wind gradients associated with theintense convective cells and sometimes torna-does. Moreover, changes in wind flow may resultfrom small-scale topographic features and thestructure of the forest itself. Typically, higherelevation (montane) rainforests are more resis-tant to strong winds compared with lowlandrainforests, mainly because of their lower statureand aerodynamically smooth canopies (Turtonand Stork, 2008). Lower elevation rainforests areknown for their higher stature and generallyuneven canopy architecture (Tracey, 1982). Theirrougher canopy surface results in more turbulentwind flow under cyclonic conditions with conse-quent damage in the form of branch and vineremoval, occasional tree falls, and widespreaddefoliation (Turton and Stork, 2008). Despitetheir lower resistance to cyclonic winds, lowerelevation rainforests are more resilient in therecovery phase than their montane rainforestcounterparts, largely as a result of their muchhigher rates of primary productivity (Turton,1990).

The role of tropical cyclones in the ecosystemdynamics of the Wet Tropics region (Figure 1)has been long recognised since the pioneeringwork of Webb (1958) following Cyclone Agnesin March 1956. He noted that local topographiceffects, as well as the frequency and intensityof cyclones, were important determinants ofwind damage at various scales. Areas frequentlyimpacted suffered canopy lowering and speciescompositional changes, including vine towersand weed invasion. He also noted the increasedfuel load after cyclones; the fire risk dependingon subsequent rainfall. Finally, he concluded thatthe catastrophic effect of cyclones on rainforestsoverrides the usual ecological factors, and insuch areas, even without human interference, a

16 Geographical Research • February 2012 • 50(1):15–30

© 2011 The AuthorGeographical Research © 2011 Institute of Australian Geographers

Figure 1 The Wet Tropics bioregion and World Heritage Area, north-east Australia (courtesy of Peter Bannink, AustralianTropical Herbarium).

S.M. Turton: Landscape Resilience to Cyclones 17


stable forest is not attained. Similar observationswere also made by Unwin et al. (1988) followingCyclone Winifred in February 1986 and Turton(2008b) following Cyclone Larry in March 2006.Both these cyclones impacted the same areaaffected earlier by Cyclone Agnes, notably thecoast and hinterland between Cairns and Card-well. Paradoxically, the same general area wasimpacted yet again by Cyclone Yasi in February2011. It is therefore hardly surprising that thesection of coast between Cairns and Cardwell isoften referred to as ‘cyclone alley’.

Tropical cyclones are therefore significantnatural disturbance agents for the largely intactrainforest ecosystems in the Wet Tropics WorldHeritage Area (WHA) (Figure 1), especially forforests near the coast (Turton and Stork, 2008).On an evolutionary time scale, cyclones have beenvery much part of the ecosystem dynamics ofthese ancient forested landscapes, and recovery ofcanopy cover following such events is oftenremarkably rapid, although forest structure andcomposition may take many decades to recover(Metcalfe et al., 2008). The same cannot be saidfor recently fragmented forests in the Wet Tropicsregion, located within either an agricultural,urban, linear infrastructure, or grassland matrices.These natural rainforest remnants, along withplantations and restoration plantings, are particu-larly vulnerable to impacts of tropical cyclonesand their associated strong winds, largely becauseof their high forest edge to area ratios and associ-ated edge effects (Laurance, 1991; 1997; Bruceet al., 2008; Curran et al., 2008; Kanowski et al.,2008b; 2008c; Laurance and Curran, 2008; Lau-rance and Goosem, 2008).

The Wet Tropics region (Figure 1) is a highlycontested landscape (Turton and Stork, 2006)with a plethora of existing and emerging threats,which have been detailed by Stork et al. (2008).Table 1 summarises the main drivers of envi-ronmental change and associated threats tobiodiversity and ecosystem services in the WetTropics region, which includes the protectedworld heritage area and adjacent production andurban landscapes. Direct and underlying threatsto the region’s natural values include internalfragmentation of intact rainforest due to commu-nity infrastructure (such as roads), climatechange and extreme weather events, the intro-duction and spread of weeds, feral animals andpathogens, altered fire regimes, declining waterquality entering the Great Barrier Reef lagoonfrom agricultural runoff, and changes in waterflows and drainage patterns in the lowlands.

Over recent decades, the region has experiencedannual human population growth rates overdouble the national average as people move intothe region as part of the sea- and tree-changephenomenon (Bohnet and Pert, 2010) and inresponse to economic development, notably inthe tourist sector, the region’s largest employer(Turton and Stork, 2006). This has led toincreased urban, peri-urban, and rural populationgrowth, often at the expense of sensitive coastaland hinterland environments in places such asMission Beach, Daintree lowlands, southernAtherton, and Myola district to the west ofCairns city (Figure 1). The agricultural sector onthe coast and Atherton has also continued togrow in recent decades, placing further pressureson remaining rainforest remnants, littoral rain-forests, and riparian vegetation corridors (Turtonand Stork, 2006; Stork et al., 2008).

Tropical Cyclone Larry, with maximumwind gusts near 240 km h-1, was a compact butintense Category 4 system when it crossed thecoast near Innisfail (Figure 1) on 20 March 2006,causing extensive damage to human communi-ties, primary industries and rainforest ecosys-tems across a relatively narrow 100-km strip ofcoastal lowlands and adjacent uplands (Bureauof Meteorology, 2007; Turton, 2008b). While thecyclone inflicted considerable human impactduring its rapid westward transit across the

Table 1 Examples of underlying drivers to biodiversityloss and environmental degradation together with associ-ated direct pressures in the Wet Tropics of north-eastAustralia.

Underlying Driver Direct Pressures

Climate change andweather extremes

Clearing of native habitat

Regional population growthHabitat fragmentation

Changes in regionalland use

Altered drainage, flowregimes

Land tenure patternsAlteration and

degradation of habitat:Demand for community

infrastructure:Roads

Grazing

Electricity

Altered fire regimes

Water supplies

Diseases

Telecommunications

Pollution

Tourism and recreation

Introduced pest species

Economic development

WeedsExotic fauna

Source: Goosem and Turton (2011), adapted from Westonand Goosem (2004); Emtage et al. (2008).



coastal lowlands and Atherton, it was alsoresponsible for significant damage to rainforestsalong its path, in particular the numerous forestremnants and riparian forests that survive todayin a largely agricultural landscape. The intactforests of the Wet Tropics WHA (Figure 1) werealso affected, but severe damage was somewhatpatchy owing to strong topographic influences(Turton, 2008b).

By comparison, Cyclone Yasi, with maximumwind gusts near 285 km h-1, was a large andvery intense borderline Category 4/5 systemwhen it crossed the coast near Mission Beach(Figure 1) on 3 February 2011, causing wide-spread and locally severe damage to humancommunities, primary industries, rainforests,mangroves, and wetlands from Cairns to Towns-ville (Bureau of Meteorology, 2011). Many agri-cultural and forested areas impacted by CycloneLarry five years earlier, such as around MissionBeach (Figure 1), were dealt a double blow withYasi, because many of the natural ecosystemswere still far from recovered. It has been esti-mated from aerial surveys that about 30% of theWet Tropics WHA was impacted to varyingdegrees by Cyclone Larry, compared with about55% from Cyclone Yasi (personal observation).Differences in the size and intensity of the twocyclones are reflected in their estimated damagebills (expressed here in 2011 US$): Larry$1.2 billion and Yasi $3 billion (Bureau ofMeteorology, 2007; 2011).

Within the context of this highly contestedlandscape, I discuss the impacts of CyclonesLarry and Yasi on the Wet Tropics region. Theseare considered the most severe cyclones toimpact on the region since the catastrophicunnamed Category 5 system that crossed thecoast near Innisfail in 1918 (Turton and Stork,2008). The fact that both Cyclones Larry andYasi crossed more or less the same section ofcoast within a five-year interval may be consid-ered unusual and provides the background formy paper on securing landscape resilience tofuture tropical cyclones in the Wet Tropicsregion, especially under a changing climate.However, at the time of writing, there waslimited detail about the ecosystem effects ofCyclone Yasi on the region, with many studiesstill being undertaken in the aftermath. For thisreason, the focus of most of my paper will be onthe impacts of Cyclone Larry and the naturalresource management (NRM) lessons for thefuture. Ongoing research will consider the eco-logical impacts of Cyclone Yasi in more detail

and will question whether any of the NRMlessons from Cyclone Larry were applied in therecovery effort after Cyclone Yasi.

My paper examines the following questions:

1. How unusual were Tropical Cyclones Larryand Yasi compared with other westwardmoving cyclones that have affected the WetTropics region since historical records beganin 1858?

2. What were the ecological effects of CyclonesLarry and Yasi on the rainforest ecosystemsand their biota and how did intact forests farecompared with fragmented forests?

3. What were the key NRM issues faced in theaftermath of Cyclone Larry?

4. What are the implications of climate changefor tropical cyclones in the Wet Tropicsregion, and how might any changes in theirfrequency and intensity affect our remainingintact and fragmented rainforest ecosystems?and

5. What NRM lessons have been learnt that maybe applied to securing more cyclone resilientlandscapes in the future, especially underanticipated climate change?

How unusual were tropical cyclonesLarry and Yasi?Utilising an historical database (Callaghan,unpublished data), Turton (2008b) examinedtropical cyclones impacting on the east coast ofAustralia between 1858 and 2006. Cyclonescrossing the coast from east to west betweenCooktown and Ingham (Figure 1) were identifiedand classified according to the Australian Cycl-one Severity Scale (Turton, 2008b). The analy-sis relied on anecdotal descriptions of variouscyclones from a variety of historical sources (e.g.newspaper reports) together with more conven-tional technical information and, therefore,should only be considered as an approximate dataset. Here, I provide an update (Table 2) of Tur-ton’s (2008b) original analysis by incorporatingseveral cyclones that crossed the coast betweenCooktown and Ingham (Figure 1) from 2006 to2011, including Cyclone Yasi.

Comparatively weak cyclones (Category 1)are likely to cross the wet tropical coast quiteoften with a return interval of about one in threeyears, compared with a frequency of about one in23 years for moderate to severe cyclones (Cat-egory 3) and about one in 67 years for severecyclones (Category 4), such as Larry and Yasi.Catastrophic cyclones (Category 5), such as the



1918 Innisfail cyclone, have a return interval ofone in 192 years. I therefore conclude on thebasis of the historical record that both CyclonesLarry and Yasi were approximately one in70-year events for the landscapes of the WetTropics region.

Nott and Hayne (2001) and Nott (2003a;2003b) have shown, however, that this short his-torical record seriously underestimates the fre-quency of severe tropical cyclones in the Cairnsregion. Utilising geomorphic evidence, Nott(2003a, b) has demonstrated that the frequencyof Category 5/6 ‘super cyclones’ for north-eastQueensland is in the range of 200–300 years.These extreme events have not occurred sinceEuropean settlement of the region, but the factthat such events have occurred in the past indi-cates that a future event of this magnitude iscertain. The impacts on coasts, rivers, and frag-mented forests, not to mention intact forests andhuman infrastructure and livelihoods, could farexceed anything we have seen thus far.

Ecological effects of Cyclones Larry and Yasion the rainforests of the Wet Tropics regionDuring 2006–2007, James Cook University,CSIRO, and Griffith University embarked on anintegrated program of research examining theecological effects of Cyclone Larry on the intactand fragmented rainforest landscapes of thebroad area impacted by the cyclone. In additionto considering impacts on native rainforests andspecific plant and animal species, researchersalso examined impacts of the cyclone on nativeand exotic tree plantations and ecological resto-ration plantings.

Researchers from the three organisations usedthree separate but integrated approaches: (1)local rapid assessments of the ecological effectsof the cyclone across a spectrum of intact to

highly fragmented rainforests; (2) regionalassessments of cyclone impacts, utilising aerialsurveys and satellite imagery; and (3) monitoringof recovery of intact and fragmented rainforests.The primary scientific findings were publishedin a special issue of Austral Ecology (edited byTurton, 2008b). This body of research is consid-ered to be among the most detailed assembledfor a cyclone-impacted forest landscape in theworld. The principal ecological effects ofCyclone Larry on intact and fragmented rain-forests, plantations and restoration plantings aredocumented in Table 3.

There were some surprises in the researchfindings (Table 3), notably that the size of forestremnants did not appear to correlate with vegeta-tion damage; rather proximity to the cyclone’strack was a better indicator of damage. A numberof endemic and rare rainforest mammal species(several ringtail possum species, tree kangaroosand flying foxes) showed remarkable resilienceto the impacts of the cyclone, while the flightlesscassowary was found to be highly vulnerable,particularly in highly fragmented forest areaslike Mission Beach. After the cyclone, 82% ofcassowary deaths occurred on the roads asanimals wandered out in search of food (Mooreand Moore, unpublished data). Riparian vegeta-tion along several coastal rivers and streams inthe impact area was particularly susceptible towind damage and subsequent weed invasions. Inareas of intact forest, weed invasion tended to beephemeral with many weeds dying out followingre-growth of the main forest canopy in the 12–24months after the cyclone. In contrast, beetlepopulations pre- and post-Cyclone Larry werevery similar, suggesting that, at least for insectsassociated with the ground layer, cyclones maynot have a severe impact (Grimbacher and Stork,2009).

Table 2 Frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones that have made east to west landfall along the wet tropical coast of northQueensland, Australia (Cooktown-Ingham) over the period 1858–2011 (updated from Turton, 2008b).

AustralianCategory (AC)

Peak Gusts(km h-1)

Central Pressure(Hpa)

NumberRecorded (n)

Return Interval(RI) (years)1

1 90–124 986–995 20 32 125–169 971–985 12 83 170–224 956–970 10 234 225–279 930–969 2 675 >279 <930 1 192

1 Fitted using RI = e1.052AC, r2 = 76.1%, P < 0.01. This analysis assumes that the Australian Category Scale (AC) is treated atinterval data, centred on average peak wind gusts.



At this stage, there is limited information on theecological effects of Cyclone Yasi on the region,but one would expect similar kinds of impactsto those reported for Cyclone Larry (Table 3).Aerial surveys have shown that while a muchlarger area of the Wet Tropics WHAwas impactedbyYasi, the level of habitat destruction at the localscale was comparable to that that observed afterCyclone Larry. Yasi has been highly damagingto foreshore vegetation from Ingham to Innisfail(Figure 1), including littoral rainforest areas thatdisappeared out to sea (D. Metcalfe, CSIRO, per-sonal communication, 2011).

Cassowary populations from Innisfail toCardwell were severely impacted by Yasi andare the target of an ongoing feeding program bythe Department of Environment and NaturalResource Management (DERM) involvingsome 100 feed stations (A. Millerd, Departmentof Environment and Natural Resources, personalcommunication, 2011). Australia’s last remain-ing habitat for the endangered Mahogany Glider(Petaurus gracilis), between Mission Beachand Ingham (Figure 1) was badly affected, hav-ing escaped damage from Cyclone Larry (A.Millerd, Department of Environment and NaturalResources, personal communication, 2011).DERM are currently monitoring these gliderpopulations and have put in place 25 feedingstations combined with the placement of 70 arti-ficial resting dens. There is room for optimism asMahogany Gliders are omnivores and are, there-fore, able to alter their diet to suit available foodresources. Due to the more south-westerly trackof Cyclone Yasi after crossing the coast nearMission Beach, there has been much less impacton the Atherton compared Cyclone Larry, soremaining areas of endangered Mabi forest haveremained relatively undisturbed. Mabi forest isnamed after the local Aboriginal name for theLumholtz Tree Kangaroo and is classified asType 5B under the system developed by Webband Tracy (Tracey, 1982). These Mabi forestremnants are also important habitat for tree kan-garoos and several species of ringtail rainforestpossums (Table 3).

Key NRM issues faced in the aftermath ofCyclone LarryThe landscape-scale impact of Cyclone Larry hadimplications far wider than the impact on forestedareas.Avery wide range of natural resource assetsand processes were affected. An opportunity for alevel of integrated response to this impact wasprovided through the State Government’s Indus-

Table 3 How Cyclone Larry affected fragmented and intactrainforests, plantations and restoration plantings in the WetTropics region.

Main ecological effects of Cyclone Larry on rainforestecosystems and their biota

Forest structure, measured up to six months after CycloneLarry, did not differ between small (<40 ha) fragmentsand larger (intact) forested areas; the severity of effectsin both was dictated by proximity to the cyclone’s eyeand track (Catterall et al., 2008).

Forest structure was not different between small linearfragments and edges and interiors of larger forest tracts –a year after the cyclone its main effect was increasedlocal spatial variability in all forests (Grimbacher et al.,2008).

A surprising finding was that secondary vegetation thatdeveloped along two artificial edges created during forestfragmentation (a road and a power line lane) may havebuffered forest interiors against changes in understoreymoisture and light more effectively than a long-standingnatural edge along a stream course (Pohlman et al.,2008).

Thirty-five per cent of the regional cassowary populationwas killed directly during Cyclone Larry but those birdsthat survived and ventured beyond the fragments sufferedeven higher mortality – struck by motor vehicles orattacked by dogs (Moore and Moore, unpublished data).

In coastal areas, planted trees in riparian sites were moreseverely damaged by the cyclone than trees in nearbyforest fragments (Bruce et al., 2008). However, on theAtherton Tableland where wind speeds were lower,planted rainforest trees were not severely damaged(Kanowski et al., 2008a).

There were no reductions in populations of five species offolivorous marsupials, measured 6–8 months after thecyclone, in fragmented Mabi forests within pastoral land-scapes compared with pre-cyclone estimates (Kanowskiet al., 2008c; Wilson et al., 2008).

Numbers of frugivorous birds were much reduced twoweeks after Cyclone Larry in severely affected forestfragments but were at pre-cyclone levels by sevenmonths after the cyclone (Freeman et al., 2008).

Before Cyclone Larry, the regional population of the flyingfox Pteropus conspicillatus roosted in large camps butafterwards altered its roosting behaviour so that therewere many small camps, presumably in response to foodlimitation (Shilton et al., 2008).

Non-native plant species (weeds) germinated in therainforest in the first 6–9 months after cyclonedisturbance but little since (Murphy et al., 2008). Theyconcluded these species were ephemeral and unlikely topersist during forest recovery.

Trees with high woody density in rainforests affected byCyclone Larry showed greater resistance (Curran et al.,2008).

The abrupt decrease in wind speeds away from the eye ofCyclone Larry (Turton, 2008b) meant that damage towidespread tree species could be assessed across agradient of wind severity, and most showed consistentresponses (Metcalfe et al., 2008).



try RecoveryAction Planning process. Within thisprocess, Terrain NRM Ltd, the region’s desig-nated regional NRM body, undertook region-wide consultation with affected communities,industry and interest groups. Terrain NRM carriedout this work in the context of its role in repre-senting the Wet Tropics community on naturalresource issues. The early response issues arisingfrom this consultation were articulated in an NRMRecovery Plan. Additionally, several months afterthe cyclone, a broad community forum was heldto determine the longer term ‘Lessons from Larry’with respect to a wide range of natural resourcemanagement considerations (Turton and Dale,2007).

In addressing these NRM impact and commu-nity recovery issues, three key questions wereassessed:

1. What went wrong after Cyclone Larry?2. What should we be doing in the future to

secure landscape resilience after cyclones?and

3. What do we need to do to get to a stage wherewe can be confident about long-term land-scape security in the wake of cyclones?

The ‘Lessons from Larry’ initiative driven byTerrain NRM considered the above three ques-tions as two distinct sets of NRM issues: (1)generic strategies and cross-cutting issues and (2)special issues requiring particular attention. Thisfollowed extensive consultation with key stake-holders in the area affected by Cyclone Larry,including researchers, primary producers, localgovernment, State land management agenciesincluding the Department of Transport and MainRoads, the Wet Tropics Management Authority,Indigenous Communities, local tourism industry,and local conservation organisations. Emphasiswas largely placed on the impacted coastal regionbetween Innisfail and Tully, centred on MissionBeach but also extended inland to the Atherton(Figure 1).

Table 4 provides a summary of generic strate-gic and cross-cutting NRM issues that were iden-tified by a range of stakeholders in the clean-upand recovery phases after Cyclone Larry. Theseissues are sufficiently generic to be applied acrossthe Wet Tropics region and in similar landscapesin tropical Australia and elsewhere. The key com-ponents identified were: (1) policy and legislationchanges to ensure that NRM issues are taken intoaccount in the clean-up and recovery phases; (2)multi-agency committee structures to deal withNRM issues in relation to cyclones; (3) response

plans and codes of practice to be applied through-out the clean-up process and beyond; (4) person-nel training in dealing with NRM issues on theground; (5) learning and retention of cycloneawareness information in organisations; (6) build-ing landscape resilience in terms of humancommunities and ecosystems; and (7) improvingcommunication of information to the communityabout what to do in the clean-up and recoveryphases.

Table 5 provides a summary of specific issuesrequiring particular attention in the aftermath ofCyclone Larry that were identified by the samemulti-stakeholder group for the impacted areabetween Innisfail and Tully. While these may beseen as specific issues, they are also sufficientlygeneric to have wider applicability across theWet Tropics and elsewhere. These specific issuesshould be NRM priorities in the clean-up andrecovery phases following the passage of a dam-aging cyclone.

The take-home message from this wholeprocess is that natural resources must be treatedas valuable commodities and we need to includetheir protection and rehabilitation in the sameway that human livelihoods, infrastructure,and industry are covered in disaster manage-ment planning. This requires NRM issues to beincluded in disaster response policy and legisla-tion, together with ensuring that structures arein place to mitigate the effects of tropicalcyclones on natural resources. It is also vital thatappropriate NRM training is given to personnelworking in the clean-up and recovery phasesand that the entire community is kept wellinformed of developments through more effec-tive communication.

It is beyond the scope of my paper to evaluatewhether or not any of these recommenda-tions were applied after Cyclone Yasi as manyaffected areas are still in the recovery phase. Itwas also a problem that many of the recommen-dations for NRM actions and policy changes thateventuated out of the ‘Lessons from Larry’ delib-erations (Tables 4 and 5) were still in the processof being implemented at the time of CycloneYasi. Many NRM stakeholders did not expectsuch a severe cyclone to follow so quickly afterCyclone Larry and were taken by surprise. Onthe positive side, there is preliminary evidencethat some, but not all, of the identified NRMissues and management recommendations weretaken into account in the clean-up after CycloneYasi. In particular, the rapid post-cyclonemechanism for cassowaries and Mahogany



Gliders through provision of feed stations wasin response to lessons from Cyclone Larry(A. Millerd, Department of Environment andNatural Resources, personal communication,2011). At the time of writing my paper, about90% of the native vegetation clean-up of coastalareas, parks and open spaces had been com-

pleted by the Cassowary Coast Regional Council(D. Sydes, Cassowary Coast Regional Council,personal communication, 2011). The councilwas more aware this time of the key issues inrelation to native vegetation clean-up, particu-larly in coastal areas. Unlike after Larry, all con-tractors involved in the Yasi clean-up were

Table 4 Generic and cross-cutting issues identified by a range of stakeholders in the clean-up and recovery phases after CycloneLarry (Source: Terrain NRM Ltd).

What went wrong after Larry? What do we want in the future? What do we need to do to get there?

Policy and legislationNRM was notably missing fromalmost all layers of disaster responsepolicy and legislation, resulting inbarriers to securing funds and supportin the post-disaster ‘clean-up’ phase.

NRM issues are included indisaster response policy andlegislation.

Prepare policy advice on how to addressNRM issues in disaster responseplans, policies, and procedures.Prepare a discussion paper for policymakers on the value of naturalresources.

StructuresThere was no committee or responseteam in place focusing on NRMissues – either before or after thecyclone.

Must be in place to mitigate theeffects of cyclones on naturalresources.

Establish a standing NRM cycloneplanning and response team tomanage the implementation of anNRM disaster response plan andassociated actions (across agenciesand levels of government).

Response plans, codesDisaster response plans and codes ofpractice (at all levels) did not includethe impacts that the cyclone andclean-up process would have on thenatural environment.

NRM is included in disasterplans, codes of practice andoperating procedures.

Review existing disaster plans, codes ofpractice, and operating procedures asthey relate to NRM. Develop anNRM specific disaster response plan.

Training and expertisePeople involved in the clean-up hadno training or expertise in NRM andinflicted even more damage on theenvironment.

People involved in the clean-upactivities after cyclones aretrained/accredited to minimisedamage to natural resources.

Develop, fund, and implement inadvance of cyclones as training planto support NRM Disaster ResponsePlan, including compliance withcodes of practice.

Learning and prior knowledgeExperiences and learning fromprevious cyclones had not beenretained and were not available toinform response activities.

Information that can be capturedfrom the experience ofCyclone Larry is recorded andanalysed.

Establish an advisory group made up ofan expert research panel as well asrepresentatives from the NRMcommunity to develop a strategicpost-cyclone research plan.

Building resilienceThe landscape is fragmented and veryvulnerable to such events.

Key NRM principles arepromoted to increaselong-term resistance andresilience of the landscape totropical cyclones.

Develop promotional materials andidentify ways to communicate theimportance of natural resources.Facilitate long-term monitoring ofsites for landscape health.

CommunicationThe community, in particular, foundit difficult to get accurate informationabout how NRM issues were beingaddressed, and did not feel they werebeing involved in the process

Community, a full partner indiscussions on disasterresponse and receivingaccurate and up-to-dateinformation.

Develop post-disaster communicationplans that direct all agencies to thegroups within the community that areactive and knowledgeable in NRMissues. Requires a coordinatedapproach



Table 5 Specific issues requiring particular attention identified by a range of stakeholders in the clean-up and recovery phasesafter Cyclone Larry (Source: Terrain NRM Ltd).

What went wrong after Larry? What do we want in the future? What do we need to do to get there?

Cultural sites/IndigenousMany sites are vulnerable to cyclones andland over which Indigenous communitiesdo not have legal ownership and recoveryto Indigenous industries are not supportedby existing bodies.

Plans and regulations must recognisethe rights of Indigenous people toaccess and restore cultural sites,including provision of funding todo this as well as to restoreIndigenous businesses.

Develop an Indigenous Cyclone Recovery package, whichdescribes impacts of the cyclone on their communities,cultural sites, values, and industries as a basis forattracting investment.

Timber industriesTimber was left lying on the ground withno opportunities for timely salvage andsupport to this industry.

Timber industries receive immediatesupport in the salvage of timberresources damaged by the cyclone.

Undertake immediate assessment of the timber currentlyrequiring salvage, its value, quantity, and location.Requires a salvage plan.

Weed invasionsThis was accelerated in areas disturbed bythe cyclone and will hinder recovery ofthe environment.

Natural areas are recognised as anasset and therefore immediateresources are available to addressthe rapid incursion of weeds.

Seek more information about appropriate post-cycloneweed response measures; develop a weed managementplan; seek funding for weed management; include weedmanagement in future disaster management plans andfunding arrangements.

Excessive clearingIn some areas, there was excessiveclearing of native vegetation during theclean-up operation (including alongwaterways) either as ignorance or as adeliberate act to secure ocean views.

Remaining vegetation is immediatelyprotected from excessive clearingand clean-up through codes ofpractice, regulations, andcompliance measures.

Modify cyclone response mechanisms so that vegetation isnot cleared excessively during the clean-up phase;investigate and document the policy, legislation thatgovern disaster response as it relates to vegetation;develop recommendations for changes/additions topolicy, legislation and guidelines to better manageemergency vegetation clearance; identify any researchneeded; develop preliminary plan and codes of practicefor clean-up of waterways, with emphasis on developingmechanisms for NRM community input andparticipation through consultation with stakeholders.

MulchExcessive mulch production and notknowing what to do with it.

Post-disaster Mulch ManagementPlan developed and implementedas part of the recovery process.

Investigate use, disposal, and management of existingmulch piles so that they can be used appropriately whileminimising the transfer of weeds; investigate mulchregulations within the WHA and modify forpost-cyclone response if necessary; include mulchmanagement in future disaster management plans andfunding arrangements.

Wildlife feedingPost-cyclone feeding process was delayed,chaotic, and inadequate to tackle the need.

Agencies have pre-developed,streamlined, and efficient wildlifefeeding plans and procedures inplace.

Hold meetings with local NRM community to review andassess cassowary feeding situation and agreed onsupport requirements for the next 6–12 monthspost-cyclone; investigate what DERM is planning forcassowary feeding and the potential for communityinvolvement; develop wildlife feeding and caringstrategies that make use of the community potential andinclude these in future disaster management plans andfunding arrangements; use importance of wildlifecorridors as leverage to increase the corridor network inthe Wet Tropics.

World Heritage Area neighboursLandholders adjacent to the WHA found itdifficult to clear and repair fence lineswhile adhering to regulations.

WHA regulations take into accountthe post-disaster needs ofneighbouring landholders.

Investigating responsibility for fence repair on WHAboundaries, as well as assessing whether sufficientgovernment funds, are allocated to cover thegovernment’s share of border management and seek toallocate sufficient funds in future disaster managementarrangements.

Feral pigsNumbers increased after the cyclone,damaging crops and native vegetation,spreading weeds, decreasing water quality,and competing with native fauna forscarce resources.

Post-disaster pig management plan isdeveloped and adequatelyresourced from disaster recoveryfunding.

Develop a comprehensive pig management plan that isintegrated into mainstream disaster response plans.



supervised by Council staff, but there is stillroom for improvement and specific guidelinesare still lacking for how to deal with native veg-etation after cyclones (D. Sydes, CassowaryCoast Regional Council, personal communica-tion, 2011).

Securing landscape resilience undera changing climateGlobally, climate change and associated warm-ing is predicted to increase the intensities of tropi-cal cyclones in the future while have largelyneutral effects on cyclone frequency (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1998; Webster et al., 2005). Walshet al. (2004) found that under enhanced green-house conditions, simulated numbers of tropicalcyclones in the Australian region do not changevery much compared with those simulated for thecurrent climate. However, they noted a 56%increase in the number of simulated storms withmaximum winds greater than 30 m s–1 (alterna-tively, a 26% increase in the number of severestorms with central pressures less than 970 hPa).However, uncertainty remains on changes incyclone intensity and frequency under globalwarming. Increased cyclone intensity due towarmer ocean temperatures might be partiallycompensated by decreased intensity as a result ofa greater atmospheric stability because of pre-dicted warming of the upper troposphere (Elsneret al., 2006). Likewise, increased tropical windshear in some model projections because ofwarming of the troposphere may result in littlechange in the geographical distribution of tropicalcyclones in the future (Vecchi and Soden, 2007).

More recent research by Knutson et al. (2010),based on theory and high-resolution dynamicalmodels, consistently suggests that greenhousewarming will cause the globally averaged inten-sity of tropical cyclones to shift towards strongerstorms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by2100. However, existing modelling studies alsoconsistently project decreases in the globallyaveraged frequency of tropical cyclones, by6–34% depending on the oceanic basin underconsideration (Knutson et al., 2010). Balancedagainst this, higher resolution modelling studiestypically project substantial increases in thefrequency of the most intense cyclones andincreases of the order of 20% in the precipitationrate within 100 km of the storm centre (Knutsonet al., 2010). Such changes have profound impli-cations for tropical ecosystems and human com-munities in the global tropical cyclone belt,including Australia’s Wet Tropics region.

What are the implications of more intensecyclones for our tropical rainforests and adjacentagricultural production landscapes? Will biodi-versity decline in these landscapes? Will foreststructure change over time? How will intactforests fare compared with forest remnants?Given that cyclones are a significant disturbanceagent for the forests of the Wet Tropics region(Webb, 1958), there is a plausible link betweenperiodic cyclonic disturbance and forest compo-sition and structure at the landscape scale. TheIntermediate Disturbance Hypothesis proposesthat biodiversity is highest when ecosystem dis-turbance is neither too rare nor too frequent (e.g.Connell, 1978). With low disturbance, competi-tive exclusion by dominant species arises, whilewith high disturbance, only species tolerant ofthe stress agent can persist. A shift in the severityspectrum of tropical cyclones will tend to favourspecies more resistant to strong winds, suchas palms and some tree species, and thosemore tolerant of post-disturbance environmentalstresses, such as pioneers, vines and weeds(Lugo and Scatena, 1996; Laurance and Curran,2008; Metcalfe et al., 2008; Murphy et al.,2008). Increases in cyclone intensity, even withcyclone frequency remaining stable (or perhapsdeclining slightly), may lead to shifts in forestsuccession direction, higher rates of speciesturnover, and, hence, opportunities for specieschange in tropical forests (Dale et al., 2001).Such changes may interact synergistically withother ecological and physiological effects ofwarming and enhanced CO2 levels on forest biotaand ecosystems.

More severe cyclone damage under climatechange could promote serious fires in the rain-forest, particularly if there is not substantial rain-fall after the event; the risk being due to massivebuild up of fine fuels in the understorey andresulting canopy damage that can allow forestdrying (e.g. Unwin et al., 1988; Laurance andCurran, 2008). Forest fragmentation can alsopromote fires (Cochrane and Laurance, 2008),and the combination of cyclones and fragmenta-tion could promote serious fires under some cir-cumstances. Fire-fighting capacity is strong inmore populated areas of Australia but may beless available in developing countries or moreremote areas, so the storm-fragmentation-firesynergism could potentially be a serious problemin many tropical regions that are affected bycyclones.

Given the strong consensus that intensitiesof tropical cyclones will increase under climate



change even though overall frequency ofcyclones in Australia’s Wet Tropics region maydecline slightly, it is vital that we begin adaptingto climate change and more severe cyclones nowto reduce the vulnerability of our biologicallydiverse rainforests and economically importantNRM systems. It is only through reducing ourvulnerability that we will succeed in buildingsocio-ecological resilience to cyclones under achanging climate. The resilience of a complexsystem (e.g. an ecosystem, society, or economy)relates to its capacity to absorb recurrent distur-bances or shocks, and adapt to change withoutfundamentally switching to an alternative stablestate (Hughes et al., 2010). A resilient system canresist dramatic changes in condition and main-tain or recover key functions and processeswithout undergoing ‘phase shifts’ to a qualita-tively different state (McCook et al., 2007).

So disturbance from a tropical cyclone mayresult in a temporarily changed state and tempo-rary alterations in ecological functions (Webb,1958). However, resilience of the ecosystemmeans that the altered state is unstable. The forestwill gradually regain its structure and composi-tion over time (Lugo, 2008). In contrast, ifhuman impacts have undermined the resilienceof the forest, the changed state may persist orrecovery may be deflected to another state. Forexample, native or non-native vines may climbup to the canopy and prevent regenerationof other species, resulting in ‘vine towers’ thatpersist for many decades, as seen on forestedfoothills in parts of the Wet Tropics adjacent tolarge areas of human forest clearing. In that case,there is a long-term ‘phase shift’ (Lugo, 2008;Goosem and Turton, 2011).

These phase shifts occur because althoughecosystems, including rainforests, are dynamic,complex and adaptive (McCook et al., 2007),they are characterised by environmental thresh-olds that, if crossed, may lead to such large-scaleand often relatively abrupt changes in state(Goosem and Turton, 2011). These altered statescomprise changes in structure and/or ecosystemprocesses and in the capacity for recovery.Passing a threshold causes a sudden change infeedbacks, so that the trajectory of the systemchanges direction (Folke et al., 2004). Undesiredshifts between ecosystem states are a function ofthe size of external forces driving the shift andthe internal resilience of the system. As resiliencedeclines, the ecosystem becomes vulnerable, andprogressively smaller external events can causephase shifts (Folke et al., 2004).

Climate change and variability has received agreat deal of important attention recently in theWet Tropics region of Australia (Williams et al.,2008; Hilbert, 2010; Shoo et al., 2011). However,in the face of immediate loss of habitat and frag-mentation, climate change per se should be con-sidered an additional driver for biodiversity lossand habitat degradation that will interact withthese more immediate drivers (Table 1) and willeventually have far-reaching consequences forbiodiversity in the intact and fragmented parts ofthe forest landscape (Goosem and Turton, 2011).These drivers are interacting both additively andsynergistically. The major threatening processesleading to biodiversity loss and degradation werelisted as vegetation clearing and fragmentationof remaining forests as a result of changes inland use and tenure (Goosem and Turton, 2011).Overgrazing, exotic weeds, feral animals, andchanged fire regimes were additional threats towetlands, riparian zones, threatened species andecosystems (Weston and Goosem, 2004; Emtageet al., 2008). Global scale analyses of threatsto biodiversity loss agree with this assessment,citing conversion of natural forest ecosystems toother land covers as the largest threat causingbiodiversity degradation and species loss(Loumann et al., 2010).

The most striking NRM learning fromCyclone Larry was that a resilient landscape hasa better chance of withstanding cyclone impactsand recovering more quickly (Turton and Dale,2007). Securing landscape resilience to cyclonicevents in the Wet Tropics region means focus-ing future NRM investments in six key areas(Table 6): (1) landscape connectivity, (2) riparianriver repair, (3) protecting coastal assets, (4)cyclone resilient farms, (5) education for thefuture, and (6) minimising climate change. In thewake of Cyclone Yasi, these remain urgent prior-ity areas for future NRM investment.

ConclusionsThe rainforests of the Wet Tropics of Australiaare affected on a regular basis by tropicalcyclones, and intact forest areas show remark-able ability to recover from cyclonic disturbance.Over the past 150 years, large areas of intactrainforest have been cleared for agriculture andurbanisation, particular the coastal lowlandssouth of Cairns and most of the Atherton Table-lands. This has resulted in a high degree of frag-mentation of remaining forest areas, with manyforest remnants remaining isolated from largeblocks of rainforest protected by UNESCO



world heritage status. Forest remnants andriparian vegetation, along the region’s water-ways, are particularly susceptible to cyclonicwinds and post-disturbance weed invasion withconsequences for their long-term conservationstatus and biodiversity values.

My study has evaluated the frequency andintensity of tropical cyclones impacting the WetTropics region over a 153-year period sincereliable records began. Analysis has shownthat weak cyclones (Category 1) have a frequentreturn interval (one in three years) compared withvery severe cyclones (Category 5) that are muchless common (one in 192 years). Thus, two recentCategory 4 cyclones featured in my study, Larryand Yasi, had return intervals of about one in70 years. The fact that both cyclones occurredwithin five years of each other may be consideredunusual (but not statistically impossible), settingthe context for my study on securing landscaperesilience to cyclones under a changing climate.It is also important to recognise that we only havea relatively short historical database for tropicalcyclones in the region, and the important palaeo-climatology work of Nott (2003a; 2003b) wouldsuggest we need to be prepared for Category 5/6‘super cyclones’ at 200- to 300-year intervals.Such events are likely to be catastrophic for ourhuman and natural systems and may well becomemore frequent under climate change.

I have also reported on the NRM lessons fromCyclone Larry and have put forward practicalrecommendations for how authorities shoulddeal with natural resources in the clean-up andrecovery phases after tropical cyclones. I arguethat it is vital that natural resources be treated asvaluable commodities by including their protec-tion and rehabilitation in the same way thathuman livelihoods, infrastructure, and industryare covered in disaster management planning.This requires NRM issues to be included indisaster response policy and legislation, togetherwith ensuring that structures are in place to miti-gate the effects of tropical cyclones on naturalresources.

There is a general consensus that tropicalcyclone intensities will increase under climatechange while overall frequency will remainthe same or decrease slightly depending on theoceanic basin under consideration. Predictedincreases in cyclone intensity under climatechange have profound implications for the long-term sustainability and viability of rainforestecosystems in the Wet Tropics, particularly forestremnants and littoral rainforests. There is a real

Table 6 Recommendations for future natural resource man-agement investments in the Wet Tropics region in the light ofclimate change and other regional environmental drivers andpressures (after Turton and Dale, 2007).

Landscape connectivityCassowaries, mahogany gliders, and tree kangaroosare examples of iconic species in the Wet Tropicsregion. The rainforests of the coastal plain andtablelands are critical habitats to them and manyother rare and/or regionally endemic species. Theseforests are already fragmented and forest remnantswere badly damaged by Cyclone Larry. While areasof forest with a critical mass will recover well, a lackof effective forest corridors meant these rare andendangered animals had fewer recovery options.

Riparian river repairHealthy rivers and streams in the Wet Tropics regionreduce erosion and crop damage on farm andcontribute to the health of the Great Barrier Reef.One way to achieve this is through restoring healthynative vegetation along the region’s waterways. Thinriparian vegetation was prone to serious degradationby Cyclone Larry, exacerbating water quality anderosion risks in post cyclonic flooding. Many riparianareas became infested with weeds after the cyclone.

Protecting coastal assetsThe region’s unique coastal zone provides asignificant natural buffer to cyclonic and storm surgeevents. Additionally, increasing urban development inrecent years has boxed coastal ecosystems betweenthe sea and urban landscapes, leaving theseecosystems very much at risk particularly from stormsurges. There is still inadequate effort going towardscoastal protection in the Wet Tropics region.

Cyclone-resilient farmsThe adoption of sound management practices onfarm (e.g. grassed inter-rows and shelter belts inbanana plantations) and grants to landholders enablesignificant land repair and critical on-farm changes.This will ensure greater resistance and resilienceagainst future climate change and extreme weatherthreats. Shelterbelts may also provide opportunitiesfor biodiversity conservation and carbonsequestration on farms.

Education for the futureCommunity resilience comes from communityknowledge of how to manage for a cyclone resistantand resilient landscape. Investing in education isabout making an investment in the capacity of futuregenerations to sustainability manage the region’snatural resources.

Minimising climate changeClimate change scenarios suggest an increasingfrequency of high intensity cyclones in the futurewhile overall frequency may decline slightly. Thismeans the region has to play its part in reducingGreenhouse gas emissions through adoption ofcarbon reduction schemes, such as native and exotictree plantations and alternative energy sources.



risk of a phase shift to vegetation types domi-nated by disturbance species, including weeds atthe expense of cyclone intolerant species. It istherefore important that we begin to build morecyclone resilient landscapes to reduce the vulner-ability of our remaining rainforest habitats aswell as ensuring the sustainability of primaryproduction systems and associated human com-munities. Securing landscape resilience requiresgreater NRM investment in vegetation corridorsto connect forest remnants with intact forestareas, together with restoring healthy native veg-etation along the region’s waterways. Therealso needs to be a greater focus on protectingour coastal vegetation as an important bufferfrom cyclonic storm surges. Our productionlandscapes also need to become more resistantand resilient to cyclones, such as planting shel-terbelts to reduce wind impact on banana planta-tions while also providing opportunities forbiodiversity conservation and carbon sequestra-tion. Finally, we need to increase communityawareness of climate change so that plannedadaptation can occur over coming decades.

While climate change poses a long-term threatto the rainforests of the Wet Tropics region, thereare other more immediate threats to biodiversityin the landscape which may act synergisticallywith changes in climate and more extremeweather events. In the short to medium term, weneed to focus on these more immediate pressuresaffecting our remaining biodiversity, notablyclearing of native habitat, habitat fragmentation,altered drainage and flow regimes, alterationsand degradation of habitat, and introduction ofweeds, pest animals and pathogens. Failure todeal with these more pressing NRM issues willonly increase the vulnerability of our remainingrainforests and adjacent production landscapes toclimate change.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI thank Bill Laurance for his helpful comments on a draftversion of this manuscript. I am especially grateful to PennyScott from Terrain NRM for sharing the valuable informationsummarised in Tables 4 and 5. This research was fundedby the Rainforest Cooperative Research Centre, the Marineand Tropical Sciences Research Facility (via the Reef andRainforest Research Centre Ltd), and the Skyrail RainforestFoundation.

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