sd-sen nielson brothers (oct. 2012)

7/27/2019 SD-Sen Nielson Brothers (Oct. 2012)

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For immediate release:

Date: October 18, 2013

Survey: Nielson Brothers Polling, South Dakota Statewide Survey, October 2 - 6, 2013

Subject: Opinions on US Senate Candidates, US Representative Kristi Noem, S.D. Direction

Contact information: [email protected], 605 496-0911

Website: nielsonbrotherspolling.com

Rounds Maintains Significant but Shrinking Lead in Matchup with Weiland for US Senate

A new Nielson Brothers Polling (NBP) statewide survey shows Republican Mike Rounds

maintaining a significant if shrinking lead over Democrat Rick Weiland in a head-to-head

matchup for U.S. Senate. Conducted from October 2 to 6, 2013, in the midst of the government

shutdown, the NBP poll also indicates a drop in support for U.S. Representative Kristi Noem and

a more pessimistic outlook on the direction of South Dakota.

When matched against Rick Weiland (the only announced Democratic candidate for U.S.Senate) Mike Rounds leads 50.2 to 34.8 percent, with 15.0 percent undecided. The race has

narrowed since the June NBP survey which had Rounds ahead 54.3 to 27.1 percent.

Democratic support, in particular, rises for Weiland in this October survey.

Rounds holds a sizable advantage over other announced challengers for the Republican

nomination. Republican primary voters give Rounds 46.1 percent support, followed by Stace

Nelson (10.4 percent), Larry Rhoden (3.9), and Annette Bosworth (2.7). Over a third of

Republican primary voters (37.0 percent) remain undecided.

NBP also matches Rick Weiland against Brendan Johnson and Steve Jarding, two other potential Democratic candidates, in a hypothetical primary contest. Among likely Democratic

primary voters, Johnson leads with 30.7 percent support, followed by Weiland with 10.1 percent,

and Jarding with 6.6 percent. A majority (52.7 percent) of Democratic respondents are

undecided. Findings from the June NBP survey indicated that name recognition would be a

challenge for Weiland. Half of respondents in June did not know Weiland’s name -- compared to

31 percent who did not know Johnson (U.S. Attorney for South Dakota and son of retiring

Senator Tim Johnson) and 8 percent who did not know Rounds (former South Dakota

Governor).

Weiland does better matched against the other potential Republican candidates. While

Weiland’s support hovers just over 35 percent (ranging between 35.6 and 37.6), support for the

Republican candidates dips considerably compared to Rounds, as undecideds rise sharply.

Stace Nelson receives 34.5 percent support against Weiland’s 35.6 percent with 29.9

undecided. Larry Rhoden garners 32.3 percent compared to 36.5 for Weiland with 31.3 percent

undecided. Annette Bosworth receives the least support of the Republican Senate candidates

with 32.5 percent to 37.6 for Weiland and 29.9 percent undecided. The strong Republican

backing for Rounds (73.3 percent) drops to 55 percent or below for these candidates with

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movement largely toward undecided.

When asked about Representative Kristi Noem, 52.0 percent of respondents say they approve of

her job performance, and 48.0 percent disapprove. The 52.0 percent approval is a 4.2 percent

drop from 56.2 percent in the June NBP survey. “Strongly approve” responses fall by 3 percent

from June (26.7 to 23.7), and “strongly disapprove” responses rise by 6.5 percent (from 26.8 inJune to 33.3). When asked whether Noem deserves to be reelected, 39.2 percent say “yes.”

45.9 percent say “no,” with 14.9 percent “undecided.” The “no” responses include 80.6 percent

of self-identified “Liberals” but also 64.9 percent of self-identified “Moderates.” Ideologically,

respondents self-identified as follows in this NBP poll: Tea Party -- 15.8 percent, Conservative --

33.7 percent, Moderate -- 32.4 percent, and Liberal -- 18.1 percent.

The Nielson Brothers October poll shows a more pessimistic view of the state’s direction when

compared with the June NBP survey. The 44.1 percent that say the state is going in the “right

direction” is a 5.1 percent drop from 49.2 in June. The 31.9 percent that answer “wrong direction”

is a rise of 8.7 percent (23.2).

“General dissatisfaction with the state of our government is indicated in our October survey, as

Representative Noem’s support drops along with optimism about the state’s direction,” says

Paul Nielson, president of NBP.

Questions, Responses, and Margins of Error

NBP surveyed a random selection of likely South Dakota voters from October 2 through October

6, 2013. Numbers of responses and margins of error (MOA) for questions discussed are as

follows:

Do you feel South Dakota is headed in the right or wrong direction?(right, wrong, undecided)839 responses; 3.38 percent MOA.

How do you rate the job done by Representative Kristi Noem? (strongly approve, somewhat

approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove)

827 responses; 3.41 percent MOA.

Does Representative Kristi Noem deserve to be reelected? (yes, no, undecided)

825 responses; 3.41 percent MOA.

In a Republican primary for Senate for which four following candidates would you vote? (Mike

Rounds, Annette Bosworth, Stace Nelson, Larry Rhoden)

410 responses; 4.84 percent MOA (only Republican primary voters).

In a Democratic primary for Senate for which of the three following candidates would you vote?

(Rick Weiland, Brendan Johnson, Steve Jarding, undecided)

282 responses; 5.84 percent MOA (only Democratic primary voters).

Would you vote for Republican Mike Rounds or for Democrat Rick Weiland?

818 responses; 3.43 percent MOA

Would you vote for Republican Larry Rhoden or for Democrat Rick Weiland?

815 responses; 3.43 MOA



NBP previously released findings from this October 2 to 6, 2013 public survey with findings on

blame and responsibility for the government shutdown, President Obama’s job approval, and

support for the Affordable Care Act. Questions about minimum wage and abortion rights were

also included in the survey. Interested parties may contact NBP with regard to questions and

answers on public surveys. For more information contact [email protected], or call 605

496-0911.

sd-sen nielson brothers (oct. 2012)

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