Policy Brief on Adapting Aquaculture to Climate Change for Poor Farming Households in Coastal Bangladesh

Manjurul Karim, William J Collis, Michael Phillips, Neil Andrew, Arif Azad and Golam Hossain

National policies linked with climate change

National policies do not explicitly address climate change issues- o Bangladesh Environmental Policy, 1992o National Forest Policy, 1994o National Environmental Management Action Plan, 1995o National Energy Policy, 1996o Fisheries Policy, 1998o National Health Policy, 2000o National Land Use Policy, 2001 and o National Food Policy, 2006

Existing policies that address the issue of climate change: National Water Policy (NWP), 1999 National Agriculture Policy, 1999 National Water Management Plan (NWMP), 2001 Coastal Zone Policy, 2005 Coastal Development Strategy, 2006 Draft National Disaster Management Policy, 2008

Projected climate change impacts• Sea level rise (30-80 cm increase by 2050) and increased flooding• Increased vulnerability to cyclone and storm surges (5-10%) increase by 2050• Increased salinity (soil and water) • Increased moisture stress > leading to increased draught• Greater temperature extremes (1.4 oC by 2050)• Greater monsoon precipitation (20-30% increase by 2050)

Salinity rangeEc: ds/m

2000 (ha)

2009 (ha)

Increase (ha)

2-4 28,990 328,000 299,010 8-12 307,000 274,000 -33,00012-16 192,000 189,000 -3,00016+ 87,000 101,000 14,000 All 614,990 892,000 277,010

Year Temperature change (0c) Precipitation change (%)

Annual Dec-Feb(dry season)

July-Aug(wet seacon) Annual Dec-Feb

(dry season)July-Aug

(wet season)

2030 1.00 1.10 0.80 3.80 -1.20 4.702050 1.40 1.60 1.10 5.60 -1.70 6.80

(Source: Global Circulation Models run by IPCC)

Projected climate change impactsImpacts (eg. water temperature increase by 2oC)

++: 10% increase of precipitation river runoff increase by 15% - increase flood plain area, feeding ground and productivity

_ _: a) destroy aquaculture infrastructure > reduce closed water production b) may stimulate 300-500% incretion of growth of microphytes - - decrease water productivity - reduces fish habitat and dissolved oxygen supply

Lessons from WorldFish projects (CAARP, 2010)

• Fish nurseries, stocking of large size fingerlings, fast growing species

• 1 million carp fingerlings (by weight 7.4 MT), value US$ 24,074 produced by 126 households within ~ 3.5 months

Preparedness and adaptation measures:• Rising pond dikes and setting nylon net

• Well planned harvesting and selling of fish and vegetables

Lessons from WorldFish projects

• Other promising adaptive aquaculture technologies: nutrient dense small fish, rice-fish and cage aquaculture (Adivashi, 2009)

• 77% of households reinvested in aquaculture after the disaster

• Stocking larger size fingerling brought 30% higher production and 36% higher profit margins within 6- 8 months (CAARP, 2010)

• Fish consumption: 8 -19 kg/person/yr (~80% increase)2005(n=1569) 2006(n=1619) 2007(n=1572) 2008(n=732)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fish consumption trend from 2005 to 2008

Kg

/per

son

Policy recommendations1. Inclusion of aquaculture in national development planning2. Capacity building, information accessibility and awareness

raising on climate change impact prediction and adaptation3. Promotion and adaptation of aquaculture technologies to

the realities of climate change

7. Flexible water storage options and adaptation to climate change

8. Mobilize, develop and empowering community based organizations

4. Increasing focus on technological innovation towards development of sustainable Aquatic-Agricultural Systems (AAS)

5. More priority on small scale aquaculture (>10 million ponds)6. Develop measures to mitigate the effects of climate change

on livelihoods and aquaculture

Conclusion

• Institutionalization and mainstreaming climate change adaptation interventions is needed to :ensure medium and long-term sustainability save millions of vulnerable coastal livelihoodsmake millions of other Bangladeshi people food secure

• Adapting aquaculture to climate change ?

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