Science for Sustainable Development

looking through the eyes of a scientist

Reiko KurodaTokyo University of Science, The University of Tokyo, Scientific 

Advisory Board of UN Secretary General, TWAS Fellow

Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhereGoal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agricultureGoal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all agesGoal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for allGoal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girlsGoal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for allGoal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for allGoal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent

work for allGoal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovationGoal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countriesGoal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainableGoal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patternsGoal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts*Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable developmentGoal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat

desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity lossGoal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and

build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levelsGoal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

Sustainable development goals

I) Importance of creating new scientific knowledge

II) Understandwhat is happening in our planet,what may happen in future, andwhat we can and have to do to change the trendsto achieve the Earth we want in next generations,

without yielding to emotions but based onscientific evidence and logical/critical thinking

・Urgent environmental problems we are facingand the predicted future based on scientific evidence

・How science and technology are contributing to the solutionof problems

・What may happen in the next 15 years・How science and technology have changed our society

for the last 15 years・What is science, and what can science offer for the

sustainable developmentthrough new scientific discoveries/ technologies and innovationbut science has limitations(lack of knowledge/understanding of complex Nature,varied interpretations,matters with uncertainties) - Trust in Science

・Science and society: co-design and co-production of knowledge

Increasing problems threatening global sustainability

Energy Depletion

Created from IEA ‘World Energy Outlook 2006’

World CO2 Emission byEnergy Consumption

Hun

dred

billi

onto

ns

（year）0

50100

150200250300

350400450

1990 2004 2015 2030

Gas

Petroleum

Coal

Water Problem

Created from Ministry of Environment ‘Whitepaper on Environment 2002’ and WWC ‘World Water Vision’

World Water Deficiency

Wat

er-s

tress

ed p

opul

atio

n/hu

ndre

d m

illio

ns

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Ren

ewab

le w

ater

reso

urce

s （m

3/pe

rson

・yea

r）

05

1015202530354045

Present 20250

Water-stressed population

Renewable water resources

Population growth accelerates problems of resources/energy depletion, loss of biodiversity, environmental deterioration, spreading epidemic, fear of terrorism etc.

Urgent Global Problems in the 21st Century

Population Growth

Created from United Nations‘World Population Prospects 2004’

World Population

世界

アジア

0102030405060708090

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Pop

ulat

ion/

hund

red

milli

ons

World

Asia

Typhoon Morakot (Kiko)2008

Flood, Pakistan Aug.2010

Reuters

Heat wave, Russia Aug.2010Kinki Peninsula Sep. 2011Deep-seated landslide due to heavy rain

Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines, Nov. 2013winds of at least 140 m.p.h.

Understanding the causes of change

The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since preindustrial times from fossil fuel emissions and net land use change emissions.

The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.

Source : IPCC AR5

Partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue curves) and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water.

Warming of the climate is unequivocal

Source : IPCC AR5

Since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia: The atmosphere and the oceans have

warmed The amounts of snow and ice have

diminished Sea level has risen The concentrations of GHGs have

increased

Some scientists claim・ There is no global warming

Temperature have either stoppedwarming or have begun to cool in thelast seventeen years

・ The increase in global mean surfacetemperature is due to the changes in totalsolar irradiance and nothing to do withhuman activities.

Geophysical events:earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

Meteorological events:tropical storm, winter storm,severe weather, hail, tornado,local storms

Hydrological events:flash flood, river flood, storm surge, mass movement (landslide)

Climatological events:heatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought

Natural catastrophesCannot stop the incidence

But we can mitigatedisasters

Well‐developed early warning system of earthquake/tsunami in Japan

P wave

S wave Magnitude,Possibility of Tsunami 

preliminary tremors

Principalmotions

At the time of Great East‐Japan earthquake, 27Shinkansen trains were running in the area  at full speed, but all automatically stopped safely (thanks to UrEDAS P‐wave warning system developed by the JR Institute) and none ran off the tracks. 

ⒸRK

Advanced Technology for Early Warning & Hazard Mapping

IFASIntegrated Flood Analysis System

“Real‐time” “worldwide” nowcasts

International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Managementunder the auspices of UNESCO hosted by PWRI, Tsukuba

Remote sensinge.g. CHRS

ⒸRK

Nowcasting contributes to the:• reduction of fatalities and injuries due to weather hazards;• reduction of private, public, and industrial, property damage; and to• improved efficiency and savings for industry, transportation and agriculture.

Nowcasting

Nowcasting comprises the detailed description of the current weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation for a period of 0 to 6 hours ahead.it is possible to forecast small features such as individual storms with reasonable accuracy. 

Geophysical events:Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

Meteorological events:Tropical storm, winter storm,severe weather, hail, tornado,local storms

Hydrological events:Flash flood, river flood, stormsurge, mass movement (landslide)

Climatological events:Heatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought

Cannot stop the incidence

Natural? Human-induced ?

However, we can reduce the risk

Natural catastrophes

A New Initiative on Earth System Research for Global

Sustainability.

ICSU, ISSC, Belmont Forum, IGFA

・HFA, ・IRDR, ・ WDS・A New Initiative on Earth System Research for Global Sustainability.

ICSU, ISSC, Belmont Forum, IGFA

・We can reduce the disaster risk of both natural and human‐induced disasters 

Early warning system Science/ Technology/ InnovationBuild/promote a culture of disaster resilience

・Human‐induced disasters Determine how to anticipate, avoid, and manage disruptive global environmental change

・Partnership of  Science and SocietyScientists with social literacy/Citizens with science literacyScience interpreter/communicator linking the two

ICSU, UNESCO, ISSC, IGFA, Belmont Foundation;Future Earth,  WDS, IRDR, ICHARM etc

ⒸRK

Big Changes in Socioeconomic Structure:

Era of Globalization, Knowledge Society, Knowledge Specialization, Knowledge Competition

Big changes like the tectonic shifts have occurred in USA in 1990s by micro-processors, and the internet,

and spread throughout the world, as it is easy to cross the border in the flattened world

International specialization ⇔self supporting within a country•International specialization of brainwork•Global optimum resource distribution・KPO (knowledge-process-outsourcing)

IBM Call centers, Accounting, MOOC, Flipped Classroom,

•Menial jobs by cheapoverseas labour

•Localized product development

RK

Science/technologies and the effect in socin the last 15 years

95,5

40,4

15,8

32,0

9,8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Per 1

00 inhabitants

Global ICT developments, 2001‐2014

Mobile‐cellular telephone subscriptions

Individuals using the Internet

Fixed‐telephone subscriptions

Active mobile‐broadband subscriptions

Fixed (wired)‐broadband subscriptions

Note: * EstimateSource: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database

http://www.itu.int/en/ITU‐D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx

An estimated4.55 billion mobile

1.75 billion smartphoneusers worldwide in 2014

RK

Somatic cloning iPS Cells

reset

iPS cell

ATGCATGC ATGC ATGC

4 genes introduced

Embryonic stem-cell like

A fertilized egg Individual organismdifferentiation, development

Prof. Ian Wilmut, From a mammary gland

1997 2006

Regenerative medicineProf. S. YamanakaMouse, rat, rabbit,

goat, cow, pig etc.

Change in DNA decoding cost

0.000001

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

year

US $

cost of decoding per basepair

cost of gene synthesis

(Dr. Robert Carlson's data,biologist, USA)

Image of DNA sequencer upgrade

10

1,000

100,000

10,000,000

1,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

10,000,000,000,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

year

decipherable number ofbase pair (per day)

ABI3730

SOLiD3

PacBio

manually analysis

(Dr. YoshihideHayashizaki's data,

(possible)

：institution

s

Courtesy to Dr.Y. HayashizakiName of instrument

Courtesy to Dr. Robert Carlson, US biologist

Human Genome Project: 1990‐2003

3Gbp

Rice Genome Project: 1998‐2004

0.39Gbp

Now Decode Your DNA for $1000Individual's genome in a day's time for $100

International Business Times, Independent January 11-12, 2012

Genetic approachTailor made medicineprevention of certain diseases

Cancer treatment (new radiation therapy, chemotherapyetc).

Brain scienceneurodegenerative diseasesMemory, cognition

GM for crop production medical purpose – e.g. anti hay-fever GMO riceimprovement of environment - adsorb Cd2+

and many others

Other developments

Adapted from Dr. West’s data (Hitachi symposium)

Diffusion of technology in society is accelerated.

Gas that contain carbon, chlorine, fluorine, and sometimes hydrogen.・They carry wonderful characteristics. ・They are stable and non-toxic. ・They are used as working fluids in refrigerators and air conditioners because they are gases at room temperature but can be easily liquefied by compression.

・They were used as foaming agents in the production of polystyrene andpolyurethane foam plastics used for insulation and packing materials.

・They were used as a propellant in spray cans for paint, insect repellantsand deodorants.

However, the inertness and lack of water solubility of CFCs turned out to be problematic. Ozone depletion!Science could not foresee the complex long-term, long-distance and indirect effects!

Chlorofluorocarbons

CFC‐12

Limitation of science

Ozone depletion is more extreme in Antarctica than at the North Pole because high wind speeds cause a fast-rotating vortex of cold air, leading to extremely low temperatures. Under these conditions, human-made chlorofluorocarbons –CFCs – have a stronger effect on the ozone, depleting it and creating the infamous hole.

Good news: The hole in the ozone layer is finally starting to heal ?

Image Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center/M. Radcliff

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone LayerThe treaty was opened for signature on September 16, 1987, and entered into force on January 1, 1989.  As a result of the international agreement, the ozone hole in Antarctica is slowly recovering.Indicate that the ozone layer will return to 1980 levels between 2050 and 2070.

Sep. 2014

alternative chlorofluorocarbons

HFC                 HCFC

Science and policy making

Science and technology are frequently involved in policy making: On climate change, cyber‐security, pandemics, food technologies, regenerative medicine, poverty etc.

However, scientific advice is increasingly difficult particularly in emergent and uncertain cases.

Is the view close to reality? The role of scientist and science as to provide the means for decision, and that of politician and politics as to decide the ends

Who evaluates, who decides, who judges and who is responsible for the consequence? 

What is Future Earth?A global platform for international scientific collaboration• Enables integrated research on grand 

challenges and transformations to sustainability 

• Strengthens global partnershipsbetween researchers, funders and users of research

• Communicates science to society and society to science

Co-design and co-production of knowledgeNew

Future Earth

Linking science and society

Education Science journalism

Scientists with social literacy and ethicsCitizens/policy makers with science literacyi.e., basic knowledge of science, scientific way of thinking (critical thinking)

Science Interpreters  for Interactive communication between the two 

・Urgent environmental problems we are facingand the predicted future based on scientific evidence

・How science and technology are contributing to the solutionof problems

・What may happen in the next 15 years・How science and technology have changed our society

for the last 15 years・What is science, and what can science offer for the

sustainable developmentthrough new scientific discoveries/ technologies and innovationbut science has limitations(lack of knowledge/understanding of complex Nature,varied interpretations,matters with uncertainties) - Trust in Science

・Science and society co-design and co-production of knowledge

Six essential elements for delivering the SDGs

The Road to Dignity by 2030: Synthesis Report of the Secretary‐GeneralOn the Post‐2015 Agenda, New York, Dec. 2014

Thank you for your kind attention