Scenarios Development: Purpose, Insights and Approaches

Structured Approach and Link to Roadmapping

Outline

• Foresight and methods

• Scenarios: different approaches

• Scenarios: the structured approach

• Roadmapping

What is Foresight?

Foresight Exercise

Functions of a Foresight Exercise

• Diagnosis: Understanding where we are …

• Prognosis: Foresighting what could happen …

• Prescription: Deciding what should be done …

These functions might relate to specific phases of the

process or they might come up at more than one point in time

during the exercise. You may want to assign specific

methods to fulfil specific functions.

Scoping an exercise

Rationales for foresight

Conditions to Analyse

Methods

Follow-up Running

an exercise

FORLEARN Foresight Cycle

Methods: Scenarios

Scenarios [1]

Description of scenarios

• Scenarios start from an initial state (usually the present) and evolve into a final state at a fixed time horizon.

• Scenarios are hypothetical, describing alternative futures and possible pathways to these by reflecting how they can emerge from the present.

• Scenarios describe dynamic processes which consist of states, driving forces, events, consequences and actions which are causally related over a period of time.

• Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but rather projections of the future.

Scenarios [2]

Purpose of scenarios

• The purpose of scenarios is to (systematically) explore, create, and test possible future conditions, both desirable and undesirable.

• Scenarios can help generate long-term policies, strategies, and plans, which help to bring desired and likely future circumstances in closer alignment by outlining important milestones along the way.

• Scenarios enable policy and decision makers to grasp the long-term requirements for sustained advantage, growth, and avoidance of problems by developing adaptive strategies.

1

2

2‘

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2‘‘1‘‘

Foresight orForecasting

Backcasting

scenario 1

• science

• technology

• society

• law & regulation

• politics

• environment

• …

Scenario Trumpet

Different scenario approaches

Scenario approaches

• Normative scenarios start with preliminary view of a possible future and look backwards to see if and how this might or might not grow out from the present.

• Exploratory scenarios start with the present as starting points and move forward to the future by asking ‘what if’ questions about implications of possible events outside familiar trends.

• Inductive approach (bottom-up) builds step-by-step on the data available and allows the structure of the scenarios to emerge by itself.

• Deductive approach (top-down) attempts to infer an overall framework to start with, after which pieces of data are fitted into the framework.

Different scenario approaches

A1. Select dimensions to elaborate 16 future

snapshotsB1. Define 8 different

future snapshots

C1. Define 6 future snapshots and matrix with key dimensions

D1. Select issues shaping the future of

the selected area

A2. Discuss the 16 snapshots, select 3

B2. Cluster the 8 snapshots into 3

C2. Elaborate 3 snapshots with matrix

D2. Assess issues online on relevance

and probability

D3. Cluster issues based on mean and

variance of assessment criteria

C3. Label the 3 snapshots

B3. Label the 3 snapshots

A3. Label the 3 snap-shots

B4. Describe the 3 snapshots

A4. Describe the 3 snapshots

C4. Describe the 3 snapshots D4. Describe the

clusters/snapshots

A5. Describe paths to the 3 snapshots,

evolution of context

B5. Describe paths to the 3 snapshots,

evolution of context

C5. Describe paths to the 3 snapshots,

evolution of context

D5. Describe paths to the snapshots,

evolution of context

B. intuitive scenario construction

A. structured scenario construction

C. combined scenario construction

D. Scenario construction using

distributed intelligence

Scenarios using distributed intelligence

Case: Mini-scenarios for the future state of higher education in Europe

The likely mini-scenario: "the global university"

Issue Code Issue description

A.1 By 2025, higher education institutions will have become globally competitive and thus able to cope with people of many different nationalities and cultural backgrounds.

A.2 By 2025, emerging regions in Asia and elsewhere will have become the most important centres of research and innovation.

A.3 By 2025, virtual higher education and research organisations are established, taking advantage of advanced computing, global networks of interdisciplinary teams and a mix of skills.

B.2 2/ By 2025, today's less developed economies will continue to face brain drain, low science-innovation links and an ever-widening technological gap with the rest of the world.

C.1 1/ By 2025, societal needs and values will be the most important drivers of research and innovation.

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Scenarios using distributed intelligence

The debated mini-scenario: "The open university?"

Me

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Issue Code

Issue Description

B.1 By 2025, several European countries will face a substantial declinein the number of researchers and PhD students.

B.4 By 2025, alternative education systems (online education, distanceeducation, competition from foreign universities) will have replacedsubstantially the traditional higher education system in severalEuropean countries.

C.1 By 2025, societal needs and values will be the most importantdrivers of research and innovation (mainly according toresearchers).

C.3 By 2025, different stakeholders such as politics, university, industryand representatives of civil society are highly involved in researchand innovation through online networks.

C.4 By 2025, the protection of intellectual property will have become toa great extent irrelevant, as successful innovation will have come todepend more and more on knowledge sharing and openinnovation.

Scenarios using distributed intelligence

The differentiated university landscape

Sta

ndar

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Issue Code

Issue Description

A.4 By 2025, competitive regions will have specialised in one or a small number of specific knowledge-oriented sectors.

A.5 By 2025, the assessment and certification of knowledge by peers in informal international networks (e.g. through social computing) will have become more important than the role of established institutions.

e.g. IMS 2025 Scenarios

Scenario development within IMS 2020 project

• Input: interviews + survey results (based on literature review)

• Process: workshop and online commenting - WS: based on priorities identified decide skeleton of scenarios

- Smaller groups define alternative routes to each scenario

- Description of scenarios and open for commenting

1 2 3 4 5A

BCD

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Impact dimension Assessment with regard to snapshot 2025

Policy and regulation (aligned and coordinated)

Decisions (bottom-up and long-term)

Collaboration (global multi-level cooperation)

Values & Behaviours (collective)

Partnerships (high connectivity (proactive & vertical or with diverse stakeholders) and long-term)

Product & Services Life Cycle and Performance: design, production, delivery and disposal(breakthrough innovations & high performance)

Technology (breakthrough technologies)

Localisation (cooperation across value chain globally)

Markets (new)

Standardisation, Safety, Quality and Ethics (CSR) (voluntary and beyond law applied to products, services & processes)

Knowledge Generation and Management (tools and systems to transform tacit knowledge into explicit and organisational)

Education (flexible, provided by different actors and fostered by firms)

Curricula (personalised)

Competence and Skills (new)

Learning (modern and flexible)

Energy (renewable; intelligent)

Natural Resources & Materials (e.g. raw materials and water)(new or alternative and efficient use & management (i.e. recycle, reuse, etc)

Environmental Footprint (positive)

17

e.g. IMS Main Dimensions

Policy andGovernance

International IndustrialR&D Co-operation

KnowledgeSociety

+ Policy and governance

- Policy and governance

+ International industrial R&D co-operation

+ Knowledge society

- Knowledge society

- Environmental sustainability

- International industrial R&D Co-operation

+ Environmental sustainability

- Knowledge society

- Knowledge society

- Knowledge society

- Environmental sustainability

- Environmental sustainability

- Environmental sustainability

+ Knowledge society

+ Knowledge society

+ Knowledge society

+ Environmental sustainability

+ Environmental sustainability

+ Environmental sustainability

IMS 2020: Four dimensions selected for a scenario frame

+ Policy and governance

- Policy and governance

+ International industrial R&D co-operation

+ Knowledge society

- Knowledge society

- Environmental sustainability

- International industrial R&D Co-operation

+ Environmental sustainability

- Knowledge society

- Knowledge society

- Knowledge society

- Environmental sustainability

- Environmental sustainability

- Environmental sustainability

+ Knowledge society

+ Knowledge society

+ Knowledge society

+ Environmental sustainability

+ Environmental sustainability

+ Environmental sustainability

Snapshot A

Snapshot B

Snapshot C

Snapshot D

IMS 2020: Selection of most interesting snapshots

Snapshot A Snapshot B

Snapshot C

Snapshot D

Scenario development workshop

• Likelihood and desirability of each snapshot feature becoming a reality by 2020 on a scale 1 to 3

• Workshop:

– Special attention given to most desired features (desirability = 3) with

high degree of becoming a reality (likelihood > 2)

– Discussion on selected features and their interrelations

– Mind-mapping used to organise the discussion

– Definition of 3 main statements which summarise the IMS Vision 2020

– Detailed description of all features and their relationships

IMS 2020 Vision

Roadmapping

As a decision aid, roadmaps are useful tools for

– Strategic and operational decision making and action planning

– Achieving a desired future state of development

– Portraying structural relationships among S&T and applications

– Improving coordination of activities and resources

– Identifying, evaluating and selecting strategic alternatives

– Communicating visions to attract resources

– Stimulating investigations

– Monitoring progress

Roadmaps

1. Multiple layers

(1)

(2)

(3)(5) (4)

One picture explains more than 1000 words - (at least)…

2. Bars

3. Network diagrams

4. Flow charts

5. Texts

Roadmapping formats

The elements of roadmaps

A S&T roadmap consists of nodes (past, present, future) and links (causal or temporal relations).

These elements can have quantitative and qualitative attributes.

Construction of a roadmap requires identification of the nodes and their attributes, connecting the nodes with links, and specifying the link attributes.

Roadmaps

1. Target and timeframe• Define the subject and the meaningful target year for

roadmapping

2. Vision• Define the desirable future

3. Matrix • Identify key developments in roadmap dimensions

4. Roadmap• Define required cronological continuum of key

developments towards the vision (storyline)

4 Steps in Roadmapping

Roadmapping dimensions

Dimensions Core concepts

Societal change Behaviour, routines, preferences, values

Policy changeRegulations, economic instruments, governance, agreements, communication, coordination

Industrial changeStandards, interoperability, value chains and networks,

organisational hierarchies and practices

Technological changeDominant designs, emerging technologies,

interoperability, infrastructure

Roadmapping dimensions

Architecture of a Roadmap

Phaal (2003)

Roadmapping

Phaal, 2006

Linking the future to the present

Roadmapping

Present Mid-term Vision or snapshot

Societal change

Policy change

Industrial change (markets)

Technological change

Systemic change (horizontal events)

Roadmapping matrix Collection of the content

Techno-logical

change

Industrial change

(markets)

Policy change

Present Desirable future

Societal change

Mid-term

VISION

Structure of the Roadmap

e.g. UCIM Roadmapping

Action Planning

Action Subsystem Actor Timeframe Funding

Action Planning: Example

Integrating Scenarios and Roadmapping

• Combined use of methods can offer clearer insights under uncertainty across a range of alternative technologies and/or social, political and economic outcomes

• TF and TR have much in common. Both are:Participative and interactivePolicy and action oriented

• Attempts have been made to integrate scenarios and roadmaps, where scenarios have been used to set visions for the TR process by considering future options (e.g. Lizaso and Reger, 2004; Drew, 2006; and Gerdsri, 2007)

• So far scenarios have not been truly embedded in the roadmapping process

Scenarios and Roadmapping

• The use of scenarios throughout the roadmapping exercise – from the beginning to the end by means of

Constituting a context for the exercise, and thus informing the design

of roadmaps

Setting visions for roadmaps by considering alternative futures –

introduces an explorative aspect

Portraying alternative pathways for roadmaps

Testing the robustness of the proposed roadmaps

Enhancing the explanatory power of roadmap, and thus

Influencing the wider policy context

Methodological Approach

Scenarios and Roadmapping

• Brings the exploratory aspect

• Prevents linearity and isolation of roadmaps with the introduction of a creative, interactive and collaborative scenario process

• Internally consistent narratives of possible, plausible and desirable futures will be presented, which will be understood not only by experts, but also by wider constituents of the society

Methodological Approach

Scenarios and Roadmapping

• Before the roadmapping exercise: Scenarios as part of the preparatory activities for roadmapping. ‘Baseline’ scenarios help cover uncertainties relating to the issue at hand. Possible and plausible futures are anticipated with the use of scenarios before the exercise

• During the roadmapping exercise: Scenarios help to explain roadmaps and their branches as internally consistent narratives. If a roadmap is a ‘skeleton’, scenarios constitute the ‘meat’ around it

• After the roadmapping exercise: Scenarios are used to test the robustness of roadmaps and develop an overall picture of the way ahead

Use of Scenarios in Roadmapping process

Scenarios and Roadmapping

ERA.Net RUS Scenarios Grid for STI Policy Dev.

Case-study for ERA.Net RUS

sustainableunsustainable

cooperation

competition

FP7/FP8 Assoc.

Specificcooperation

Decreasingcooperation

Others?

Others?

ERA.Net RUS Foresight Exercise

• Two-Days Scenario Development Workshops (WS)

• Online Survey and Expert Interviews to feed Scenarios Development

• 1. Creativity WS in Seville:

• Day 1: am. Alternative ways of scenarios development, sharing experiencespm. Project-Introduction to ext. experts, critical variables for scenario grid

• Day 2: am. Position snapshots, define dimensions (variables sub-broken)pm. How evolve dimensions in snapshots from today to e.g. 2020?

• 6 weeks Homework: Work out the evolution of dimensions in snapshots

• May / June: Further Scenario WS considering homework and survey results to validate scenarios development

• 4 weeks refining scenarios, defining visions and roadmaps

Case-study for ERA.Net RUS