scb outlook q2 2014

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2014Bull - Bear: In focus: Summary of main forecasts

:. . .

OutlookQuarter 2/2014

.

.

www.scbeic.com E-mail : [email protected] : +662 544 2953

@SCB_EIC

EIC Online

03Houseview

E-mail

04 05

2014

Bull - Bear:

In focus:

Summary of main forecasts

4

35

38

53

EIC 20141.6%

2015 2014

: EIC CEIC, ., .

4.0%

2/2014

2011 2012 2013 2014F

14.1

-0.3

3.14.0

2013 2014F

1.3

-6.6

-80-400

40

80120

-15-10-505

10

15

1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 Jan-Feb2014

() () ()

-20-100

10

20

1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 Jan-Feb 2014

3 2543 3

0.25% 1.75%

2014 2.2%

/32-34

: %YOY : %YOY

: %YOY

: %YOY

2014 1.6%

4.0%

1.75%

32-34

QE

(Fed funds rate)

2015

2015

4

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2014

2014

( 1)

5

2/2014

1

: (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank Bank of America)

2014

: %QOQ SAAR

1.1

2.5

4.1

2.4 2.13.0 3.4 3.4

0.01.02.03.04.05.0

-0.9

1.30.5

1.2 1.1 1.21.4 1.4

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

4.8 3.91.1 0.7

3.2

-3.8

2.6 1.7

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

7.77.5

7.8 7.77.4

7.6 7.5 7.5

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

: %YOY

3%

1.1%MOM SA ()

( 3)

3 4 2013 2.6

3 2000 2.2 ( 4)

2008

192,000

2013 185,000 ( 5)

80%

( 6)

(Fed)

QE

2015 (Barack Obama)

7.25

10.10 2016 2015

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

2

Fed 2015 (Janet Yellen)

(FOMC) 19-20 Fed

(Fed funds rate) QE 6

2015 FOMC 2015 1% 0.75%

2% 2016

2 0.35% 0.44%

Fed

6.5%

6


7 2/2014

2 3

4 5

6 7

: Deutsche Bank , EIC CEIC

(Real GDP) (ISM Manufacturing)

(U. of Michigan sentiment)

2013

2008

: %QOQ SAAR :

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan-0

8Ma

y-08

Sep-

08Ja

n-09

May-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-1

0Ma

y-10

Sep-

10Ja

n-11

May-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-1

2Ma

y-12

Sep-

12Ja

n-13

May-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-1

4

() ()

: %MOM SA : 1966=100

65

70

75

80

85

90

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-1

3

May-1

3

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar-1

4

() ()

:

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.580 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 88 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

-60-50-40-30-20-10

010203040

Jan-0

7Ma

y-07

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

May-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-0

9Ma

y-09

Sep-

09Ja

n-10

May-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-1

1Ma

y-11

Sep-

11Ja

n-12

May-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-1

3Ma

y-13

Sep-

13

: %YOY 3

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Jan-0

8Ju

n-08

Nov-0

8Ap

r-09

Sep-

09Fe

b-10

Jul-1

0De

c-10

May-1

1Oc

t-11

Mar-1

2Au

g-12

Jan-1

3Ju

n-13

Nov-1

3

: % .. 2008

: MOM SA : %

2013

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

() ()

1.0%

4 0.3%QOQ SA ()

3

2013

2011 ( 9)

1 2.5%YOY ()

( 10)

12%

0.5% 5

( 11)

2%

1% ( 12)

( 13)

( Box: )

(ECB)

(IMF) ECB

ECB 1.

ECB (Deposit facility rate) 2.

3.

(Quantitative Easing: QE) ECB

8


9 2/2014

8 9

10 11

12 13

: EIC CEIC, Bloomberg, Eurostat International Trade Centre

(Real GDP) (PMI)

: %YOY SA 3 : SA 3

-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505101520

-9.0-8.0-7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0

Jan-0

7Ma

y-07

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

May-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-0

9Ma

y-09

Sep-

09Ja

n-10

May-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-1

1Ma

y-11

Sep-

11Ja

n-12

May-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-1

3Ma

y-13

Sep-

13Ja

n-14

: (): 12 ()

= -13

: %YOY SA

-6-4-202468

10121416

0.8

1.3

0.7 0.60.2

0.7

1.20.9

0.40.0

0.5

1.00.6

0.3

-0.2-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

: %YOY

ECB = 2%

0.7

-1.9-3.2

-1.0

3.9

1.60.2 0.6

-0.4

11.9

0.1

-0.8-2.0

0.1

4.4

0.91.9

-0.7

0.5 0.8

1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013: %YOY

-2.1

-0.3 -0.5

-3.7-4.4

-1.4

0.60.2

-3.4 -3.7

-0.4

1.30.6

-2.4 -2.2

0.10.5

1.1

-1.3-0.7

1Q2013 2Q20133Q2013 4Q2013

: %YOY SA

: %QOQ SA :

253035404550556065

-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5

1Q20

082Q

2008

3Q20

084Q

2008

1Q20

092Q

2009

3Q20

094Q

2009

1Q20

102Q

2010

3Q20

104Q

2010

1Q20

112Q

2011

3Q20

114Q

2011

1Q20

122Q

2012

3Q20

124Q

2012

1Q20

132Q

2013

3Q20

134Q

2013

1Q20

14

() ()

BOX:

2013

65% ( 14)

23%

10


14

: EIC International Trade Centre

77

35

23

65

4258

(% )

1.0%

1) 2)

3)

3.5%QOQ SA 0.4%QOQ SA

(Net exports) 30.1%QOQ SA

0.7%QOQ SA ( 0.8%QOQ SA )

1.5% 2012 ( 15)

( 16)

( 17)

2014

2011 40% 30%

(Sales tax) 5% 8%

( 18)

2

(base pay) 1% ( 19)

2

( 20)

(Haruhiko Kuroda)

12-13 2

11

2/2014

12


15 16

17 18

19 20

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

(Real GDP) (PMI)

2014

2013 Abenomics

3.5

-1.7-3.2

0.1

4.5 4.10.9 0.7

4042444648505254565860

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014

() ()

: %QOQ SAAR :

+1.4%YOY(2012)

+1.5%YOY(2013)

: %YOY

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14

:

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013

: (): () ()

:

QQE

: %YOY

-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5

: %YOY

-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

: :

2014 2% QQE

: %YOY

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14

() ()

:

1 2014

2014 7.5% 7.7%

2013 7.4% 2014

2013

(Purchasing Managers Index: PMI) 51.3

50.3 1 2014 ( 21)

1 2014 17.6% ( 22) 12.2% ( 23)

Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy 1

Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate

15 2,400 98 1,100

2014

(Shadow banking)

7.5%

3 1)

2) 3)

2016

(Reserve Requirement Ratio: RRR)

6.6%YOY 20131 ( 24)

(

Box: )

13

2/2014

1 1.7%

14


: EIC National Bureau Statistic of China, Bloomberg CEIC

21 22

23 24

25 26

(Real GDP) (PMI)

JPMorgan

8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.4

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014

() ()

: %YOY : : %YOY

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2013 3Q2013 1Q2014

: %YOY

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014

: %YOY

4042444648505254565860

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

() ()

:

: %YOY

2.57

1.82

0.88 0.951.23 1.28

1.67 1.751.11

0.34

0.29

0.38 0.460.49 0.52

0.46 0.46

0.46

0.86

0.76

0.640.65

0.71 0.600.67 0.69

0.72

3.77

2.87

1.902.07

2.43 2.40

2.80 2.90

2.30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1Q20

12

2Q20

12

3Q20

12

4Q20

12

1Q20

13

2Q20

13

3Q20

13

4Q20

13

1Q20

14

: %YOY

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

BOX:

6.10 2013

6.15 1% ( 27)

2014

1% 2%

(Market-based exchange

rate system)

(Full convertibility)

15

2/2014

27 1% 2013

: EIC CEIC

:

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

Jan-

03Ju

n-03

Nov-0

3Ap

r-04

Sep-

04Fe

b-05

Jul-0

5De

c-05

May-0

6Oc

t-06

Mar-0

7Au

g-07

Jan-

08Ju

n-08

Nov-0

8Ap

r-09

Sep-

09Fe

b-10

Jul-1

0De

c-10

May-1

1Oc

t-11

Mar-1

2Au

g-12

Jan-

13Ju

n-13

Nov-1

3

17% 2005 2008

8% 2010 2012

1% 2014

4

4 2013

( 28

29)

3

2013

4

1)

( 30)

2)

(Reserve Requirement Ratio: RRR) 1 percentage

point 3)

2

6.6 (Joint venture)

16


17

2/2014

28 29

30 31

32 33

ASEAN4 2013 ASEAN4

ASEAN4 CLMV 1 2013 1 2014

CLMV 2013 ASEAN4 2 2013 1 2014

2013

2013

4

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

: %YOY

6.0

4.1

7.7

0.6

5.45.8

4.4

7.6

4.2

2.9

5.65.0

6.9

5.8

2.7

5.75.1

6.55.5

0.6

0123456789

10 1Q2013 2Q20133Q2013 4Q2013

+5.8% (2013)+6.3% (2012) +4.7% (2013)

+5.6% (2012)

+7.2% (2013)+6.8% (2012)

+4.1% (2013)+1.9% (2012) +2.9% (2013)

+6.5% (2012)

: %YOY

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

5.4

8.0 8.27.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.7

3.34.1 4.2 4.1

0123456789

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

: %YOY

: %YOY

-20-10

01020304050607080

N/A

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1

: %YOY

-0.1

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

: %QOQ

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1

1.6% 2

18


34 GDP 2014

2014

* : EIC

: %YOY

2 Outlook 1/2014 3 2.4%

GDP

*

2.9

0.2

-2.8

4.9

1.3

-0.3

1.6

-0.5

-2.8

2.1

-6.6

4.02013 2014 (F)

0.5%

2.1%

0.5%

12%YOY 2

4% 12%

23% 2 2013

( 35)

2014

19

2/2014

35

: EIC

-80-60-40-20020406080100120

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 Jan-Feb 2014

() () ()

: %YOY : %YOY

-25-20-15-10-505

1015

1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 Jan-Feb 2014

: %YOY

2.8% 3.2% 2

13%

( 36)

... 2

(BOI)

6

( 37)

20


36

2014

: EIC

: %YOY

-20-15-10-505

101520

1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 Jan-Feb 2014

3 2543 3

21

2/2014

37

: EIC

34.436.7

45.0

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan-0

7Ma

y-07

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

May-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-0

9Ma

y-09

Sep-

09Ja

n-10

May-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-1

1Ma

y-11

Sep-

11Ja

n-12

May-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-1

3Ma

y-13

Sep-

13Ja

n-14

() ()

: ( 50 = ): %YOY

2014 50%

70% 6.6% 2014 3

1) 2014 27%

2013 2014 ( 38) 2)

2014 3)

2015 2014

2014

22


38 39

6 2014 35.2%

* : EIC

: :

0102030405060708090

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2013 2014

:

2014 4 82%*

2014 2 35%*

2014 1 15%*

2014 3 70%*

35.2

37.3

0102030405060708090

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2013 2014

2014 4 95%*

2014 2 46%*

2014 1 22%*

2014 3 70%*

49.2

50.5

2014 4%

2014 1.0%YOY ( 40)

2 40%

2.9% ( 41)

16% 12%

45%

4%

4% ( 44)

G3

20% 2

3

1 2

1 ( Box: )

4 ( 45)

23

2/2014

: %YOY : %YOY

24


41

: EIC : EIC

:

40 1% 2014

: EIC

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2013 2014

1 2014 = -1.0%

-5.2

0.8

2.7

1.3

5.0

-0.3

2.0

0.6

4.6

-4.4

-5.4

-1.0

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

(10%)

( 10%)

( 10%)

( 12%)

( 26%)

2014 ( 1) 2013

( 26%)

( 12%)

( 10%)

( 10%)

( 10%) -5.9

-1.3

-6.3

0.9

6.5

-15.5

-15.0

3.3

4.9

2.9

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

( 4%)

( 6%)

( 8% )

( 10%)

( 10%) 2014 ( 1) 2013 ( 10%)

( 10%)

( 8%)

( 5%)

( 4%)

:

: %YOY : %YOY

25

2/2014

42

: EIC

43

: EIC

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2013 2014

1 2014 = -15.4%

16.8

13.2

1.6

3.4

-17.2

0.3

-9.9

-15.6

-3.9

-6.3

-22.3

-15.4

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

( 5%)

( 8%)

( 15%)

( 16%)

( 20%)

2014 ( 1) 2013

( 20%)

( 16%)

( 15%)

( 8%)

( 5%) -2.4

-2.7

-10.8

-11.4

8.6

-22.2

7.9

-8.2

-10.9

-4.3

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

( 6%)

( 6%)

( 8%)

( 11%)

(14%)2014 ( 1) 2013

(14%)

( 9%)

( 6%)

( 6%)

( 6%)

:

6 44% 55% 2014

44 2014 4%

: EIC

2011-2013 2013 2014 ( 1) 2014F

(%YOY)

10%

10%

3%

9%

8%

4%

7 3

60

-6

3

8 5

-6 -16

15

-0.3 -1.0

2013 2013

26


45

: EIC

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Jan-1

2Fe

b-12

Mar-1

2Ap

r-12

May-1

2Ju

n-12

Jul-1

2Au

g-12

Sep-

12Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2De

c-12

Jan-1

3Fe

b-13

Mar-1

3Ap

r-13

May-1

3Ju

n-13

Jul-1

3Au

g-13

Sep-

13Oc

t-13

Nov-1

3De

c-13

Jan-1

4Fe

b-14

Mar-1

4

4

BOX: 2013

2014 15.4%

10%

6% ( 46)

75%

1 ( 47) 1

: EIC

: : %YOY 1 2014

16171819202122232425

2013 = +0.3% 1 2014 = -15.4%

(4)

(10)

(22)

6

(31)

(5)(3%)

(5%)

(5%)

(6%)

(15%)

(15%)

27

2/2014

46 2013 2014

47

*: , , , : EIC

: %YOY 3

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060

Jan-0

8Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8Oc

t-08

Jan-0

9Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9Oc

t-09

Jan-1

0Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0Oc

t-10

Jan-1

1Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1Oc

t-11

Jan-1

2Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2Oc

t-12

Jan-1

3Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3Oc

t-13

Jan-1

4

*

28


2014 2.2% 1.3%

1) 2)

3)

6

( 48)

0.2%MOM 12

0.1%MOM

0.5%MOM

: EIC

: %YOY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

29

2/2014

48 6

0.25% 1.75%

1.75% 2014

30


: EIC Bloomberg

49 33 Fed QE (USDTHB)

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

Fed QE 17-18 .. 2013

29.9 22 .. 2013 Fed Tapering

32.4 31 .. 2014

33.1 6 .. 2014

2014

32-33 Fed QE

2014 33

1.

2.

3.

0.25% 12 Fed

4 . SET Index 1,376.26 Price-

Earnings Ratio (PER) 15.6

31

2/2014

: EIC Bloomberg

50 (EURUSD)

1.25

1.27

1.29

1.31

1.33

1.35

1.37

1.39

1.41

1.43

1.45

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

18 .. 2014

1.377

31 .. 2014

EURO STOXX 26%

1.393

18 ..

Fed QE

ECB

52 ECB

2014

1.30 1.35

32


: EIC Bloomberg

51 QQE (USDJPY)

QQE

(Core Inflation) 2%

1.3%

QQE

5% 8%

10% 2015

QQE 2014 105 -110

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

103.2 31 .. 2014

QQE 1.4 4 .. 2013

33

2/2014

2015

2015 3.5-4.0%

2015

34


Bull - Bear:

36


BULL-BEAR:

BULLs:

2

3%

(EIA)

2 18.8

1%YOY

2

2 12%

2 11.24 6%YOY

1.6

30%

50%

(LNG)

LNG

35-40%

: EIC Leading global houses ( 1 2014)

(USD/)2012 2015F

() Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F

WTI 94 94 94 106 97 98 99 93 94 91 94 95 93 89

Brent 112 113 103 110 109 109 108 105 105 104 105 106 104 101

2013 2014F

37

2/2014

BEARs: 2

EIA 2 91.2

0.5%QOQ 1.4%QOQ

6

24%

Non-OPEC 2 13.2

10%YOY tight oil, shale oil

2014 1

2012

2 2014 EIA

Non-OPEC

2014 2.9

5

OPEC

2.3

1.4

P5+1 (

) 2014 1.4

1

EIC : BEAR 2

Non-OPEC

OPEC

(geopolitical risks)

38


In focus:

(Potential GDP

growth) 4.9% 2000-2007 3.5%

2008-2013

5 (2015-2019)

4.5-5%

3.5-4%

39

2/2014Ra

w la

bor H

uman

cap

ital

Capi

tal s

tock To

tal f

acto

r pro

duct

ivity

(Raw labor)

(15-64 )

3

2 4.5-5%

(Total factor productivity)

(Capital stock)

4

3.5-4% 5 (2015-2019)

Potential GDP

GDP

2008-20132001-2007

Potential GDP

4.9% 3.5%

: EIC NESDB, CEIC, IMF, Barro-Lee, International Trade Center, UNESCO, US census, World Economic Forum, . .

(Human capital)

5

6 2.9% 2008-2013

2000-2007 5.1% ( 52)

(Subprime crisis) 2008

2009 14%

2011

GDP 4 2011 9%YOY

40


6 52

: EIC

(Real GDP growth)

: %YOY

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2000-2007 = 5.1%

2008-2013 = 2.9%

subprime

1986-1999 = 6.7%

(Potential GDP growth)

Potential GDP growth

Potential GDP

growth Actual GDP growth Potential

GDP growth 4 ( 53)

1) (Raw labor) ( 15-64 )

2) (Human capital) 3) (Capital stock)

4) (Total Factor Productivity: TFP) (efficiency)

(effectiveness)

41

2/2014

Potential GDP growth53

: EIC

()

Potential GDP growth 3.5% 2008-2013 4.9% 2001-2007 ( 54) 2001-2007

2011 TFP

Potential GDP growth TFP

1.7 percentage point TFP

2008-2013 (FDI)

2002-2004 Hard Disk Drive (HDD) Western Digital

Seagate TFP (

Box: Hard Disk Drive )

42


Potential GDP growth 54

: EIC CEIC, IMF Barro-Lee


: Percentage point

2.7

1.0

1.0

1.4

0.5

0.4

3.5

2008-2013

0.7

2001-2007

4.9

0.8

5.1% 2.9%

BOX: Hard Disk Drive

Hard Disk Drive (HDD) 2002-2004

2002-2004 16% 2003 18%

21

Hard Disk Drive (HDD) HDD Western Digital

(WD) 2002 Fujistu

2003 Hitachi Global Storage 2003

Seagate 1980 1999

2004 HDD 2 1)

2) HDD 2004

HDD

(Supply Chain) HDD

HDD 2002

( 55) HDD 0% 2001 18.6% 2009

1 18.8%

HDD

PC Notebook Tablet Solid State Drive (SDD)

SSD

Supply Chain SSD

HDD

TFP 2002-2004

43

2/2014

44


HDD 2002 55

: EIC CEIC International Trade Center

HDD

: (2000=100) : % HDD

2004

2003

2002

2001

2012

2005

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2007: 2 2009: 1 0.02 percentage point

02

6 6

1011

15

18 19 18

1516

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

HDD

4.5-5% 5 (2015-2019)

4 2015-2019 3.5-4%

3.6% ( 56)

45

2/2014

3.5-4% 3.6% 56

: EIC UNESCO CEIC

Potential GDP

: Percentage point

1.01.4

1.4

1.70.4

0.4

2008-2013

3.5

0.7

2015-2019

0.13.6

57

: EIC UN US census

Dependency ratio ASEAN

Potential GDP growth 4.5-5% 2

US census bureau

UN 2018 ( 57)

0.1 percentage point 0.7-0.8 percentage point 10

5

(TFP)

(crowding in effect)

Hard disk dirve

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Dependency Ratio ()

: % 15-5960-64

: %

2018

2063

2077

0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2036

: (2010 = 1)

46


World Economic Forum (WEF) ( 58)

3

58

: EIC World Economic Forum (WEF)

: WEF ()

40 3842

33

48

78

47

66 66

78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

902007 2013

47

2/2014

1) (Institutions) 2006

2) (Infrastructure)

2006 7 10-30

(Mass

transit)

3) (Higher Education)

( 59)

5 59

: EIC UNESCO CEIC

: % GDP

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

48


3

TFP 1.4 percentage point 2015-2019

1.0 percentage point 2008-2013 2.7 percentage point


4-5% IMF 2015-2019

4.5% ( 60) 3.5-4%

3

5%

(vicious cycle)

3 Moodys 2015-2018 4.5%

49

2/2014

3.5-4% 60

: EIC IMF WEO April 2014

IMF

: %

2.94.5

2008-2013 2015-2019

5.9 6

2008-2013 2015-2019

4.4 5

2008-2013 2015-2019

5.1 6.2

2008-2013 2015-2019

50


61

GDP Potential GDP (Output gap)

: %

(economic slack)

( 61)

4

GDP

GDP 2018 54.5% potential GDP 4.5-5% 56.6% potential GDP

3.5-4% ( 62)

4 (Output gap) 2014

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

51

2/2014

GDP 62

: 1.2 : EIC (.) (.)

: % GDP

2018

Potential GDP growth 2015-2019 3.5-4%

56.6

54.5

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Potential GDP = 3.5-4% ()

Potential GDP = 4.5-5%

52


2

/201

4

For

14Q1,

act

uals a

re r

epor

ted

for

Key

rate

s, E

xpor

t, Im

port

and

Oil

prices

. So

urce

s: E

IC for

ecas

ts, Asia

Pacific

Con

sens

us F

orec

asts

(M

ar 2

014)

, M

arch

201

4 Ba

nk o

f Th

aila

nds M

onet

ary

Polic

y Re

port

, an

d Fo

reig

n re

sear

ch h

ouse

s.

Key

indica

tors

2013

Un

it Ac

tual

EIC fo

reca

st Co

nsen

sus

BOT

Shar

e (%

) 20

13

13Q

3 13

Q4

14Q

1 14

Q2

14Q

3 14

Q4

2014

20

14

2014

Re

al GD

P gr

owth

%

YOY

2.9%

2.

7%

0.6%

-0

.3%

0.0%

2.

0%

4.8%

1.

6%

2.8%

2.

7%

Dema

nd-si

de

Priva

te co

nsum

ption

50

.7%

% YO

Y 0.2

% -1

.2%

-4.5%

-4

.2%

-1.6%

1.0

% 2.7

% -0

.5%

1.4%

0.3%

Publi

c co

nsum

ption

10

.3%

% YO

Y 4.9

% 7.3

% 0.9

% 0.5

% -3

.0%

-2.0%

15

.0%

2.1%

2.9

% Inv

estm

ent (

GFC

F) 21

.7%

% YO

Y -1

.9%

-6.3%

-1

1.3%

-9.8%

-1

2.0%

-5.9%

16

.0%

-3.6%

1.6

%

Priv

ate in

vestm

ent

17.0%

%

YOY

-2.8%

-3

.1%

-13.1

% -1

0.1%

-12.3

% -5

.1%

19.7%

-2

.8%

-0

.5%

Pub

lic in

vestm

ent

4.7%

% YO

Y 1.3

% -1

6.2%

-4.7%

- 8

.7%

-10.6

% -8

.8%

3.1%

-6.6%

1.7%

Supp

ly-sid

e

Agric

ulture

8.3

% %

YOY

1.4%

-0.3%

2.3

% 0.5

% 1.8

% 2.1

% 3.2

% 1.9

%

M

anufa

cturin

g 38

.1%

% YO

Y 0.1

% -0

.5%

-2.9%

-2

.7%

-1.2%

1.0

% 5.0

% 0.6

%

Se

rvice

s 53

.6%

% YO

Y 5.2

% 5.4

% 2.9

% 1.3

% 0.6

% 2.6

% 4.9

% 2.4

%

Ex

terna

l sec

tor

Expo

rt of

Goo

ds (U

SD)

%

YOY

-0.3%

-1

.6%

-1.0%

-1

.0%

2.3%

5.0%

9.5%

4.0%

4.0%

4.5%

Impo

rt of

Goo

ds (U

SD)

%

YOY

0.3%

-2.0%

-7

.9%

-15.4

% -5

.3%

6.4%

19.6%

0.8

% 3.3

% 3.0

% Cu

rrent

acco

unt

US

D bln

-2

.8 -0

.9 5.2

6.5

-3

.0 0.6

0.0

4.1

1.5

0.7

Ke

y ra

tes

Head

line

inflat

ion

%

YOY

2.2%

1.7%

1.7%

2.0%

2.2%

2.2%

2.3%

2.2%

2.4%

2.5%

Core

inflat

ion

%

YOY

1.0%

0.7%

0.8%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.3%

1.5

% Po

licy

rate

(RP-1

D) (e

nd p

eriod

)

% p.a

. 2.2

5%

2.50%

2.2

5 %

2.00%

1.7

5%

1.75%

1.7

5%

1.75%

TH

B/US

D (en

d pe

riod)

THB/

USD

32.7

31.2

32.7

32.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

Oil

price

s Br

ent (

perio

d av

g.)

US

D/bb

l 10

9 11

0 10

9 10

8 10

5 10

5 10

4 10

5 As

of M

ar-1

4 As

of M

ar-1

4 EIC

summ

ary

of ma

in for

ecas

ts

.

. 2553 Chief

Economist

(EIC) .

.

(IMF),

, Booz Allen Hamilton

. (Kings Scholarship)

Harvard University

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

. 20

Asia Society 2550

.

. Assistant Professor of Economics

San Diego State University Journal of

International Money and Finance Board of Governors of

the Federal Reserve System

. ()

University of

Michigan, Ann Arbor

.

Chief Economist

.

. Oxford Analytica

Citigroup London

(Oxford Thai Society, 2005-6) Oxford Initiative

. ()

Citibank/FCO Chevening Scholarship

University of Oxford

.

. ()

Policy

Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign World Bank

London School of Economics

Applied Economics and Management Cornell University

. U.S. Congressional Budget

Office (CBO) 4

. ()

Rice

University

.

:

.

()

. ()

Columbia

University CFA CFA Institute

Finance Management Trainee

()

()

()

. Chief Economist [email protected]

Macroeconomics

. [email protected]

. [email protected]

. [email protected]

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Knowledge Management & Networking

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E-mail : [email protected] : +662 544 2953

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04 05

2014

Bull - Bear:

In focus:


4

35

38

53

scb outlook q2 2014

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