scale & scope presentation 2-09

8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09

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CLIMATE CHANGE:CLIMATE CHANGE:Scale & Scope of the Challenge toScale & Scope of the Challenge to

Reduce Global Greenhouse GasReduce Global Greenhouse Gas

EmissionsEmissions

Stephen D. EuleStephen D. Eule

Vice President for Climate and TechnologyVice President for Climate and TechnologyInstitute for 21Institute for 21stst Century EnergyCentury Energy

US Chamber of CommerceUS Chamber of Commerce


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Where We Are: Making ProgressWhere We Are: Making Progress

Energy Policy Act of 2005

About $14 billion in tax credits for energy efficiency, clean coal, nuclear, renewables, etc. over 10 years Loan Guarantees for new technologies that reduce GHG and air pollution - $67.5 billion available $2 billion in standby support coverage for regulatory delay for 6 new nuclear power plants

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

Renewable Fuels Mandate - 36 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022about 20% of projected gasolineusage

Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate - 35 miles per gallon by 2020

Lighting Mandate - Phase out inefficient (e.g., incandescent) bulbs by 2014 Appliance Mandates Federal Facility Requirements - Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 & new federal buildings must

be carbon-neutral by 2030

Energy Improvement & Extension Act of 2008

$18 billion in tax credits - Extends many EPAct2005 tax credits

Farm Bill

Significant portion of proposed $50 billion Farm Bill Conservation Programs for terrestrial sequestration

States

RPS in over 26 states 24 states undertaking regulation

Net U.S. GHG emissions in 2006 down 3% since 2000.Net GHG emissions in 2008 will be lower than in 2000.


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Projected Energy-Related COProjected Energy-Related CO22 Emissions over TimeEmissions over Time

Show Steady Progress in Slowing EmissionsShow Steady Progress in Slowing Emissions

GrowthGrowthProjected energy-related CO2 emissions have steadily decreased since 2002.The EIA AEO 2009

projection of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 is nearly 1.7 gigatons CO2 below the comparable levelin the AEO 2002. Projected cumulative emissions avoided from 2009 - 2020 total about 15 gigatons CO2.

Sources: EIAAnnual Energy Outlook2002 through 2009.

AEO 2002

AEO 2009


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45.1%

21.3%

9.9%

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

6.8%

6.4%

3.9%

4.8%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.6%

-0.8%

-1.7%

-2.9%-3.0%

-6.3%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

China **

Canada

India **

Indonesia **

South Africa **

Brazil **

Mexico **

South Korea **

Russia

Australia

EU-27

Italy

Japan

EU-15

Germany

UKUSA

France

Changes in Net GHG EmissionsChanges in Net GHG Emissions11 2000-2006 from2000-2006 from17 Major Economies17 Major Economies

1 Includes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, as well as emissions andremovals of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from land-use, land-use change and forestry activities.** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used.

Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats and IEA Online Energy Services.


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Climate Change Technology: MeetingClimate Change Technology: Meeting

the Long-Term Global Challengethe Long-Term Global Challenge

To reconcile the desire for global emission reductions and toprovide the energy for continued economic growth and

development, we will have to develop cost-effectivetechnologies that transform the way we produce and use

energy.

Projected World Primary Energy Demand, 1990-2095:A Reference Case Example

CO2 Stabilization Curves

55

37

18

73

Sources: Battelle Global Energy Technology Strategy Project; Climate Change Science Program. 2007, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).

FossilFuelCO

2Emissions(GtCO

2/yr)

Ej/y

r


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Reductions in Global Emissions NeededReductions in Global Emissions Needed

to Meet Range of Possible Goalsto Meet Range of Possible Goals

Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios . Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to

3,700 gigatons of CO2 equivalent would be need over the course of

the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450

to 750 ppm).

1st GtC Avoided

0

CO

2E

missions(GtCO

2/y

r)

Cumulative Emissions

Cumulative Avoided

Emissions

Unconstrained Emissions Scenario

CO2 Stabilization Scenario

1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of

cumulative CO2 emission

reductions will be needed

to meet a range of

stabilization scenarios

(750 ppm to 450 ppm).

Time


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How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2?

1Gigaton = 109 Metric Tons2 Based on current technology and U.S. data.

Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)

Install 7,700 typical landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3 MW projects at non-regulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electricgeneration

Electricity fromLandfill Gas Projects

Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norways Sliepner project(1.0 MtCO2/year)

GeologicSequestration

Build 320 zero-emission 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants withoutCO2 capture and storage (73% CF)the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate

generating capacity

Coal-Fired PowerPlants

Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa(about 200 million acres)

Biomass fuels fromplantations

Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2capture and storage (10% cell DC effcy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv.effcy).

Solar Photovoltaics

Actions that Provide1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation

TodaysTechnology

Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State ofWashington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)

CO2 Storage in New

Forest.

Install 170,000 wind turbines (1.5 MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage

Wind Energy

Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg(12,000 miles per year)

Efficiency

Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plantswithout CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)

Nuclear


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CO

2Emissions(GtC

O2

/yr)

Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the ComingImportant Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming

Decades: CODecades: CO22 EmissionsEmissions11 by Region - 2000 & 2050by Region - 2000 & 2050

About 80 to 90% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between

now and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China,

India & SE Asia.

1

Includes Fossil and other industrial CO2.Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).

Non-Annex I RegionsAnnex I Regions


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2050 ReferenceEmissions

2050

Annex I

Reference

Emissions

(18.2 Gt)

Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries

2050

Non-Annex I

Reference

Emissions

(32.4 Gt)

Annex I Emissions at20% 2000 Emissions


-100%

(-18.2 Gt)

-84%

(-15.2 Gt)

-59%

(-10.7 Gt)

-62%

(-20.1 Gt)-71%

(-23.1 Gt)

-85%

(-27.6 Gt)

1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.2 50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt.3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).

Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).

2050

Annex I

Emissions

(0 Gt)

2050

Non-Annex I

Emissions

(12.3Gt)

2050

Annex I

Emissions

(3.0 Gt)

2050

Non-Annex I

Emissions

(9.3 Gt)

2050

Annex I

Emissions

(7.4 Gt)

2050

Non-Annex I

Emissions

(4.9 Gt)

Annex I Emissions at0

2000

2000

To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global COTo Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO22 Emissions by 2050,Emissions by 2050,

Need Significant Reductions from Developing CountriesNeed Significant Reductions from Developing Countries

Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3

CO

2,

Emissions(GtCO

2/yr)


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2050 ReferenceEmissions

Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries



-100%

-84%

-59%

-62%-71%

-85%

1 Measured as MMTCO2 per million people, excluding LULUCF.

2 50% of 2000 global CO2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt.3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).

Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).

Annex I Emissions at0

To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global COTo Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO22 Emissions by 2050,Emissions by 2050,

Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go DownPer Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down

Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3

2000

Annex I

Reference

Emissions/

Capita

(12.7)

2000

Non-Annex I

Reference

Emissions/

Capita

(4.4)

2050

Annex I

Emissions/

Capita

(0)

2050

Non-Annex I

Emissions/

Capita

(1.7)

2050

Annex I

Emissions/

Capita

(2.1)

2050

Non-Annex I

Emissions/

Capita

(1.3)

2050

Annex I

Emissions/

Capita

(5.2)

2050

Non-Annex I

Emissions/

Capita

(0.7)

CO

2,EmissionsperCapita(M

MTCO2permillionpo

p.)

20002000

20002000


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All three CCSP report models assume sufficient

technological optionsfossil power plants with CCS,nuclear power, and renewable energyto allow for

substantial reductions in global carbon emissions fromelectricity production. In all of the Level 1(450ppm CO2)

stabilization scenarios, the electricity sector undergoessignificant decarbonization by 2050 (see circles) and is

essentially fully decarbonized by 2100.

Percentage of Global Electricity Production fromPercentage of Global Electricity Production from

Low- or Zero-Emissions Technologies AcrossLow- or Zero-Emissions Technologies Across

Scenarios by 2050Scenarios by 2050

Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations.

MERGE MINICAM

IGSM


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Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to

Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:

2010 to 2050

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Concentrating Solar Power

Photovoltaics

Geothermal

Wind: Off-Shore

Wind: On-Shore

Biomass

Hydropower

Nuclear

Gas-Fired w/ CCS

Coal-Fired w/ CCS

GW/year

Scale of Changes in Power Sector:Scale of Changes in Power Sector:

IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50

35 500 MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants

20 500 MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants

32 1,000 MW Nuclear Plants

1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity

100 50 MW Biomass Plants

14,000 4 MW Turbines

130 100 MW Geothermal Units

215 million m2

80 250 MW CSP Plants

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

3,750 4 MW Turbines


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0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Today 2020

GtCO2/yr

Scale of COScale of CO22 StorageStorage

0

5

10

15

20

25

Today 2020 2050 2100

GtCO2/yr

CO2 Storage Rate at

550 ppmv

Source: Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv)MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H.Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a).Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and

Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A ofSynthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S.Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S.

Department of Energy, Office of Biological &Environmental Research.

By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yrmay be required, 30 to 35x

more than today.By the end of the century,

approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may

be required, over 400x morethan today.


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Average Annual Vehicle Sales: 2010 to 2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

MillionVehiclesPe

rYear

H2 Fuel Cell

Vehicles

Plug-In Hybrid

Vehicles

Biofuel Flex-Fuel

Vehicles

Gasoline & Diesel

Hybrids

Gasoline & DieselConventional

Scale of Changes in Transport Sector:Scale of Changes in Transport Sector:

IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.


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Scale of Biomass Land AreaScale of Biomass Land Area

Land Use Scenario 550 ppmv

Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program ,Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Unmanaged

Ecosystems

Managed Forests

Crop Land

Pasture Land

BioEnergy

By 2050, land

use requiredfor bioenergy

crops mayaccount for

approximately4 to 5% of

total land use;by 2095

approximately

20%.


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scale & scope presentation 2-09

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