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    Published by:

    Saved health, saved wealth:an approach to quantiying

    the benefts o climate change

    adaptationPractical application in coastal protection projects in Viet Nam

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    Abbreviations

    Figure and Table List

    1. Executive Summary

    2. Background and Introduction

    3. The concept o quantiying adaptation benets

    3.1. Explanation: Saved Wealth indicator

    3.2. Explanation: Saved Health indicator

    3.3. Explanation: Environmental benets

    4. Methodology

    4.1. Applicability and boundary

    4.2. Derive baseline

    4.3. Calculation o wealth and health benets due to an adaptation project scenario

    4.4. Sensitivity analysis

    4.5. Assessment o environmental impacts

    5. Case study Viet Nam

    5.1. Vulnerability situation o Viet Nams coastline

    5.2. Presentation o the baseline adaptation options and benets

    5.2.1. Baseline scenario

    5.2.2. Adaptation measure: Dyke upgrade

    5.2.2.1. Application o the methodology5.2.3. Adaptation measure: Mangrove plantation

    5.2.3.1. Application o the methodology

    5.3. Comparison o project scenarios

    6. Conclusions regarding the quantication ramework and application

    in the context o the Vietnamese case study

    7. Reerences

    8. Appendix: Methodology or estimating wealth and health benets o

    climate change adaptation projects: Adapting coastal zones to rising sea levels

    C O N T E N T S

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    AF Adaptation Fund

    AFB Adaptation Fund Board

    CBA Cost-Benet Analysis

    COP17 Seventeenth session o the

    Conerence o the Parties to the

    United Nations Framework

    Convention on Climate Change

    DALY Disability-Adjusted Lie Years

    FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

    o the United Nations

    GBD Global Burden o Disease

    GDP Gross Domestic Product

    GEF Global Environment Facility

    GIZ Deutsche Gesellschat r

    Internationale Zusammenarbeit

    IFRC International Federation o

    Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

    IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on

    Climate Change

    M&E Monitoring and evaluation

    MISW Mixed index or Saved Wealth

    MNRCZ Management o Natural Resources

    in the Coastal Zone o Soc Trang

    MONRE Ministry o Natural Resources

    and the Environment (Viet Nam)

    MRV Measurement, reporting and

    verication

    NGO Non-governmental organisation

    RBM Results-based management

    RWS Relative wealth savings

    SD Sustained development

    SDC Swiss Agency or Development

    and Cooperation

    SH Saved Health

    SW Saved Wealth

    UN United Nations

    UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention

    on Climate Change

    USD United States Dollar

    WHO World Health Organization

    WRI World Resources Institute

    YLD Years lived with disability

    YLL Years o lie lost (due to

    premature mortality).

    A B B R E V I A T I O N S

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    3

    Figure 1: P. 5

    Steps in assessing an adaptation project

    according to the indicator ramework and a

    related methodology

    Figure 2: P. 7

    Uncertainties when predicting and evaluat-

    ing results o a climate change adaptation

    project

    Figure 3: P. 12

    Steps in assessing an adaptation project

    according to a suitable methodology

    Figure 4: P. 14

    Example o the damage-requency unction

    o food events

    Figure 5: P. 17

    Geographic distribution o primary climate

    exposure hazards in Viet Nam

    Figure 6: P. 19

    Salinity boundary in Mekong river delta in

    2000 and projection or 1 m sea level rise

    Figure 7: P. 19

    Satellite image o Au Tho B village with a

    co-managed zoning plan

    Figure 8: P. 26

    Sensitivity analysis o critical parameters or

    calculating Saved Wealth

    Table 1: P. 18

    Projected average sea level rise (in cm)

    in Viet Nam, relative to average o the

    1980-99 period

    Table 2: P. 20

    General baseline parameters

    Table 3: P. 21

    Expected annual wealth losses (in

    million USD/yr).

    Table 4: P. 21

    Expected annual health losses (in

    DALYs/yr).

    Table 5: P. 22

    Wealth and health losses in baseline

    Table 6: P. 23

    Main results o Saved Wealth calcula-

    tion or the dyke scenario

    Table 7: P. 24

    Main results o Saved Wealth calcula-

    tion or the mangrove scenario

    Table 8: P. 25

    Main results o Saved Health calcula-

    tion or the mangrove scenario

    L I S T O F F I G U R E S A N D T A B L E S

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    E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

    1.

    4

    Global greenhouse gas emissions are increasingcontinuously despite two decades o climate

    policy. By 2012, the average global temperature

    increase since the late 19th century had already

    reached 0.7C. At the same time, the international

    climate community has realised that eective

    and ecient adaptation to the adverse eects o

    climate change is vital.

    This report deals with one o the key challenges

    adaptation project developers are acing: how to

    consistently estimate, monitor and evaluate the

    actual outcomes o their adaptation activities. So

    ar many dierent approaches or various adapta-

    tion project types and sectors have been applied,

    but a standardised set o indicators covering most

    activities is still missing. It would allow project

    proposals to be compared beore implementation

    in order to identiy the most promising activitiesin a transparent manner (ex-ante). The standard-

    ised criteria would also enable lessons to be drawn

    rom project implementation (ex-post).

    We propose a ramework consisting o two key

    indicators that allows the total value o an adapta-

    tion project to be assessed. Saved wealth (SW) cov-

    ers the monetary value o public inrastructure,

    private property and income loss. Saved health

    (SH) assesses avoided disease, disability and lie

    loss. Moreover, environmental impacts that are

    dicult to measure in terms o monetary wealth

    such as biodiversity can be taken into accountqualitatively.

    We apply this indicator set to the GIZ project Man-

    agement o Natural Resources in the Coastal Zone

    o Soc Trang (MNRCZ) in Viet Nam as a case study.

    The main ocus o this GIZ project is coastal pro-

    tection. The rst step o this report has been the

    development o a Methodology or estimating

    the wealth and health benets o climate changeadaptation projects: Adapting coastal zones to ris-

    ing sea levels, which includes the steps described

    in gure 1.

    The methodology also includes two comprehen-

    sive spreadsheets* that perorm the calculations

    and consist o pre-dened ormulas, sensitivity

    analyses and databases.

    When applying the methodology in the context

    o Soc Trang, we have assessed two adapta-

    tion options: the real mangrove rehabilitation

    programme and a hypothetical dyke upgrade.

    This allows or the evaluation o two dierent

    adaptation projects at the same location and a

    comparison o the expected benets. The nal

    * The spreadsheets can be downloaded at

    www.AdaptationCommunity.net

    under Knowledge -> Monitoring and Evaluation. ->

    Tools and Training Material

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    5

    1Data gathering at the local level

    Coverage o combined extreme events

    Uncertainty o climate projections

    The complexity o the applied tool could be

    reduced through pre-dened methodologies and

    simplied versions o calculation tools. External

    guidance and capacity building help make the

    tool usable by local project managers. The ap-

    plication o the methodologies and tools by users

    with dierent education levels and o dierent

    cultural backgrounds, ideally through hands-

    on workshops, would be crucial to allow or the

    generalisation o this approach.

    The harmonization as well as other internation-

    ally available data sources would be helpul and

    should be supported. Methodologies or other

    types o adaptation activity would need to be

    developed and tested. This would allow or cross-

    sector comparisons o dierent adaptation project

    types (e.g. coastal zone interventions vs. drought

    adaptation activity).

    result shows that the wealth benets or the

    local population are almost ve times higher or

    the mangrove option than or the dyke upgrade.

    Additionally, the mangroves also lead to signi-

    cant health and ecological benets whereas the

    dyke cannot provide such advantages: the dyke

    upgrade would not even justiy its investment.

    We conclude that the quantication ramework

    can be successully applied or measuring project

    impacts ex-post (monitoring and evaluation

    (M&E) or the historical mangrove benets) and

    predicted impacts ex-ante (or the hypothetical

    dyke upgrade and the uture mangrove benets)

    o coastal zone int