Digital TrendsQ1 2014

Hilding Anderson@hildinganderson

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About your Speaker: Hilding Anderson

Director of SapientNitro’s Research Institute

15 years of experience

Editor of Insights

Published in Forbes, speaker at SXSWi

Entrepreneur

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Focus of this session

Every six months, SapientNitro’s Research + Insights team updates the company on the latest emerging trends and statistics related to digital. This session will focus on the latest mobile, social and digital trends which we think are particularly relevant.

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Nine Digital Trends

Preamble

1. Shopping In Increments

2. Brands as Producers (in real-time & native)

3. Mobile Payments

4. The Impermanent Internet

5. A Product Line of One

6. Rise of Experience-Led Brands

7. Social Media Evolving: WhatsApp and Vine

8. Hardware is the new software

9. Six Interesting Startups

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We’ve entered our third internet decade – how are we doing?

Source: BI Intelligence‐provided framework

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Nearly 3 billion people online

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

(millions)

Global Internet Population

Source: International Communication Union, Google

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About half left to go…

Global Population

Internet Population

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

(millions)

Global Internet Population

Source: International Communication Union, Google

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2014 will be the year that the internet goes mostly mobileSmartphone + tablets > 60% of all connected devices today

Personal Computers (Desktop And Notebook)

Smartphones

Tablets

Smart TVs

Wearables

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Num

ber O

f Devices In

 Use (In Th

ousand

s)

Source: BI Intelligence

Global Internet Device Installed Base

60% (~2 billion)

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Mobile is the only media whose share is increasing

45%

25%

17%

4%

9%7%

44%

26%

16%

6%8% 8%

43%

26%

15%

9%7% 7%

42%

26%

14%12%

6%5%

38%

20%

12%

20%

4% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

TV Online Radio Mobile Print Other

Source: eMarketer, August 2013

U.S. Consumer Media Consumption Share

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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The continued roll-out of 4G and the increased authentication and security in devices and operating systems will make mobility ever-more integrated into our lives

Other8%

Visit Websites14%

Games8%

Social Networking15%Talk

26%

Text20%

Email9%

Breakdown Of The Average Smartphone Owner's Daily Time‐SpendOn Average, U.S. Smartphone Owners Spend 58 Minutes Daily On Their 

Phones 

Source: Experian Marketing Services, May 2013

People live complex lives on the their smartphone – and the device’s span of control is growing… (see Trend #3)

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Mobile + blended traffic is > 50% for Amazon and eBay

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Amazon eBay Wal‐Mart Apple Target Best Buy The HomeDepot

Ticketmaster Etsy Lowes

(Millions)

Source: comScore

Leading Retailers' Digital Audience PopulationBy Device

Desktop Only Desktop + Mobile Mobile Only

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Our experiences in the physical and digital spaces have irreversibly collapsed into one*

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Trend 1: Shopping In Increments

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Trend 1: We are seeing the development of new consumer behavior –what we call Shopping In IncrementsMore than just snackable content, consumers are shopping across devices

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Three Examples supporting snackable shopping:

1. OMD found that the average person shifted his attention between his smartphone, tablet, and laptop a staggering 21 times in one hour.

2. Google ad sales chief Neal Mohan, claimed that more than 90% of today's consumers switch effortlessly between devices to complete a task, with 500% more people simultaneously using multiple devices than were three years prior.

3. When consumers shop online, the average time between adding a product to their cart and checking out has grown 38 percent over the last five years, from 2 hours to 2.6 hours.

This behavior is widespreadShifting between devices (smartphone, tablet & laptop) 21 times per hour; Google: 90% of consumer shift effortlessly between devices, +500% using multiple devices than 3 years ago

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Tablet and smartphone activity – where most of the media consumption time growth is located – has the shortest time per interaction of any channel

4339

30

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

TV PC/Laptop Tablet Smartphone

Minutes

Source: Google, August 2012

Average Minutes Spent Per Interaction By Device

More evidence of shopping in increments behavior; people spend 1/3 of time per interaction on smartphone vs. TV

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Visualizing ‘shopping in increments:’ tracking a shopper through her day

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Shopping in increments applies throughout the customer journey

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1. Insight: CMOs need to understand consumer behavior much more intimately than they do today. New data is available to us in the form of the “digital exhaust” must be leveraged.

2. Storyscaping: A CMO needs to build a Storyscapeof communications and experiences around a central organising idea. The Storyscape delivers bite-sized interactions and responds in real time to the snacking consumer.

3. Digitising the Shopping Environment: We can no longer distinguish between online and offline behavior. People are comparing prices, checking reviews and even ordering while in-store. They are just as likely to do research, try demos and ask friends for advice at home as they are to go to the store.

4. Technology: You need the right technology platform that can deliver the right bite-sized content and experiences at the right time, in the right format.

5. People: A different approach to marketing requires new skill sets – publishing, technology, curation, social, data, experimentation, and invention. Leading companies are rethinking marketing global structures and skill sets to allow them to succeed in this changing world.

Five Imperatives For CMOs to respond

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Trend 2: Brands as Producers

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Brands are searching for effective online (web + mobile + tablet) advertising

Even as the definition of ‘Native Advertising’ remains in flux, this approach is winning favor in the digital arena; replacing the display ad?

Native spending anticipated to rise 20.5% this year in the US

• Premium publishers increasingly selling customized, “native” digital executions

• Responding to automated, programmatic display-ad buying

• Newspapers and magazines will see digital ad revenue growth increase 5.6% and 13.3%, respectively, in 2013

• Digital-only publications lead the growth: Vice Media, Buzzfeed, Mashable and others who are willing to experiment with the customized, so-called “native” executions heavily integrated with editorial.

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Defining a Native Ad: An ad which is native to the platform on which it is run

The definition of a “native” ad is nonstandard, and eMarketer considers placements such as Facebook’s Sponsored Stories or Twitter’s Promoted Tweets, which some have characterized as native, as display advertising but not as sponsorships.)

Why ‘Native:’ Native ads are ads in a format that is native to the platform on which they are run, bought or sold. Native advertising is the activity of producing, buying and selling native ads."[

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Who is using Native Advertising today?

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Blogs are the most effective channel for native advertising, according to publishersArticles and videos are effective for over half of respondents as well

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Example: Toyota’s 20 Coolest Hybrids on BuzzFeed

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Time, Inc: People.com saw significant liftA 10x lift in engagement vs. display ads

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Case Studies: Edmunds

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Native was much more effective than banner advertising for Edmunds4x higher CTR on mobile vs. banner ads

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Example: Edmunds

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Some other examples: NYT and Facebook are live with these today

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Brands are increasingly creating and adapting their messaging in real time...

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But the traditional brand marketing team organization structure –and more importantly much of the management focus - is not aligned with the customer behavior

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Yum! Brands has built a ‘newsroom’ to make real-time content creation possible

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Conveniently, the idea of real-time brand content dovetails nicely with our Storyscaping approach

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Trend 3: Mobile Payments

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Mobile Payments & Apple’s Trojan HorseLatest from Apple: iBeacon and Touch ID, combined with Passbook; they have established the core parts of a mobile payments landscape. No NFC. Potential to be larger than Amex + Paypal in transaction volume

Biometric Authentication

Apple ID linked to Payments

In-Store Wireless Platform

Recent activity around NFC and iWallet patents, coupled with the acquisitions of AuthenTec and WiFiSLAM, suggests that Apple may be close to outlining a more concrete strategy around local (or proximity‐based) payments.‐ AuthenTec’s fingerprint sensor technology ‐ WiFiSLAM acquisition enables Apple to leverage technology that uses 

WiFi signals to calculate precise locations of phones indoors (i.e. where GPS often fails). 

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More about the iBeacon technology

At the NYC store, Apple has installed about 20 iBeacontransmitters, some of which are simply iPhones and iPads, which come with the capability as part of the iOS 7 mobile software released in September. The transmitters use Bluetooth wireless technology to sense your exact location. That's not possible with GPS, which don't work well indoors and aren't good at distinguishing between locations that are just a few feet apart. 

The beacons can be adjusted to specific distances, so you may get some notifications regardless of where you are inside. Others will come only when you are standing at a particular aisle, wall or product demo table. The store can also send out notifications about deals or upcoming events. 

‘Steering you around the store’ without a salesperson; reinforces SapientNitro research (see Insights 2014) on retail mobile wayfinding

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• As the user approaches the ballpark's gates, ticketing information would be pulled up by the app and instantly displayed. In addition, once a user was within the stadium the app would display directions to their seats.

• Teams can also adjust the app to react to stadium-specific landmarks and points of interest. For instance, if a user were to use the app near the New York Mets' Citi Field's iconic apple statue the app would play a video detailing the history of the stadium or the apple.

• User experiences won't be the same for each visit, notes Mashable. The app will include a loyalty card-like program where teams can choose to reward multiple visits with coupons for merchandise, food or beverages. It can also direct users to parts of the stadium they haven't yet activated,

• At Bat, the $20 in-app upgrade, brings added features like live game coverage and tie-ins with MLB.TV subscriptions, is largely dominated by IOS users in 2013.

MLB will be using iBeacon + Passbook in stadiums across the U.S. in 2014Building on 2013 season Passbook execution; used by 12% of all e-ticket buyers in 2013. At bat, the in-stadium mobile app, offered as a $20 in-app upgrade

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• Biometrics could be a major driver of remote mobile payments growth

• A challenge to NFC. NFC is facing a major challenge at this point, even as the installed base reaches a significant level.

• The technology at least – but neither the consumers nor retailers - is ready for in-store payments

Implication: Mobile will become even more integrated into our daily livesThe ability to make payments instantly from anywhere will drive further changes in consumer behavior and how retailers, financial services and travel & hospitality sell

PayPal Beacon uses BLE, but isn’t in Apple’s iBeacon ecosystem. Instead, it links existing POS devices to enable customers to use Paypalon their mobile to make payments

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Trend 4: The Impermanent Internet

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“In Silicon Valley, data is inviolable; it is close to a religious belief that you can never have too much data, and deleting is often an afterthought.” – WSJ 2013

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Three reasons:

• A new way to think about data: Snapchat is one of the first mainstream services to show us that our photos and texts don't need to stick around forever: that erasing all the digital effluvia generated by our phones and computers can be just as popular a concept as saving it.

• Erasability as a competitive feature —the Internet would look very different from the Internet of today. It would be a more private network, one without the constant worry of every ill-considered picture or thought being held up for ridicule by the whole world, forever.

• Our vision: A Balanced Future: Forever Internet and an Erasable Internet living side by side?

Snapchat: A Leading IndicatorWSJ: “Snapchat was the most important technology of 2013.” Before Snapchat, the EraseableInternet wasn’t broadly considered, everything was a ‘Forever Internet’.

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The Impermanent InternetMultiple companies are exploring the ‘Disappearing Internet:’ A new Twitter service #15m

Whisper (a sort of anonymous Instagram)

Twitter’s Spirit makes messages disappear after a certain period of time

Blink‐link: a link which disappears after a certain number of clicks

Tor: a secure web traffic anonymizer

Confide: An off‐the‐recorder messenger for professionals: HR issues to media requests to "deal making."

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• Consider the lifespan of the data we collect and interpret for clients

• Be thoughtful about what data is collected and how long we need it

• Be open and transparent with users about how that data is being used and stored

What this means for clients

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Trend 5: A product line of one

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From mass customization to a product of oneShifting from economies of scale to scaling one-off systems. It starts with basic customization…

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• 4 in 10 Millennials from around the world want brands to allow them to influence their products (co-creation).

• 8 in 10 Millennials want to be ‘entertained by brands’ such as:

By creating online content such as videos, photos, games, and blogs (31%)

Millennials are alpha-influencers: Seven in 10 believe it is their responsibility to share feedback with brands when they have a good or bad experience.

74% of Millennials think they influence the purchase decisions of peers and those in other generations

Much of this ‘Mass Customization’ trend is driven by millennials4 in 10 millennials are interested in co-creating products with brands

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Fitbit Force

This trends is playing out across personalized digital tools…

iOS blood pressure monitor. $129

Withings Pulse Monitor $99

And the collection and ‘sense-making’ of the latest digital sensors and life tools

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…. in the growth of 3D Printers

Gartner September 2013

CAGR = 95.4%

Global Unit Shipments of 3D Printers < $50k• Still a nascent market, with hype

outpacing the technical realities,

• Combined or even driving the Maker Movement

• Today, consumers are using 3DP to make truly personalized and unique toys and gifts, jewelry and avatars, school projects and hobby items.

• Today, no compelling item that a consumer can acquire only by producing it on a 3DP at home

Two years away from the start of the rapid-growth phase. 5 to 10 years to widespread consumer usage. 1.2M Printers anticipated to be sold in 2017; compare with 40M TVs sold in the U.S. in 2013

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Opened in London during July 2013, YrStore is a pop-up store where customers can print their own t-shirts. Via a touchscreen system, shoppers can design apparel with either stock images or their own artwork, and add photographic filters and text. Finalized designs can be printed immediately in-store, priced from GBP 20.

And in numerous one-off toolsCONSUMER AS CREATOR: Pop-up store offers instant t-shirt customization

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CONSUMER AS CREATOR: Motorola’s Moto X is a contender for the most intuitive & personalized handheld

Moto X’s “always listening” mode means that it's on constant alert for its owner’s voice commands. Motorola Assist knows when its owner has gone into a meeting or started driving a car, and automatically changes its behavior for the situation: It quiets itself or reads messages aloud so that eyes stay on the road. It can even sync incoming text messages and voice caller ID to Google’s Chrome browser on a computer.

The personalization doesn’t end with the phone’s software. Consumers can design the aesthetics, too. Moto X is available in 252 possible color combinations, including teal, plum, four shades of white and even several varieties of real hardwood.

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Customize my life: Highly customized NikeID shoesNine areas of customization: from outsole to upper to selection of every fabric section color

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Color IQ is a beauty service that scans the surface of the customer’s skin, assigns it a Color IQ numer, and finds the scientifically precise foundation math from over 1,500 options.

The Pantone Color Institute researched and mapped out 110 skintones to build the Color IQ Library created exclusively for Sephora. Customers can visit their local Sephora to receive a free Color IQ consultation.

Sephora’s Color IQ service scans a customer’s skin and pinpoints her foundation match

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Launched online across four EU countries in July 2013, Ray-Ban Remix enables customers to create their own customized pair of sunglasses. The Italian eyewear brand's project allows shoppers to personalize four different models of sunglasses (including Aviator and Wayfarer styles), by choosing colors, lenses, materials and adding up to five characters. Once customers have created their sunglasses on the Ray-Ban Remix website, their model is shipped in around three to five days.

Ray-Ban Remix enables customers to create personalized sunglasses

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Trend 6: Rise of Experience-Led Brands

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We conducted a study of ‘Real-World’ Customer Experience

Highlights included at iEXLondon in 2013

It is common wisdom that “experience” matters.

of firms say they are “customer focused”

In fact…

95%say they deliver a “superior experience”80%

“Closing the Delivery Gap” study of 362 firms by Bain & Co

But only…

of customers agree they deliver a “superior experience”

“Closing the Delivery Gap” study of 362 firms by Bain & Co

We started the research with a simple question

What makes a great customer experience great?

Goals of the research

In this study, we had three major research goals.

1. Identify leading examples of great customer experiences in the digital age.

2. Research the constituent elements of those experiences: What are the essential elements, what work do they do for customers?

3. Research the “back story”: What are the organizational, leadership, technology, and business components which make the experience possible?

We assessed 28 companies that are recognized as customer experience leaders, and audited the experience…

• We started with the list of companies featured in Forrester Research’s Customer Experience Online Survey (from the fourth quarter of 2012). We selected only those brands that received the top customer experience score in their industry.

• We then added 10 fast-growing startups from Fast Company’s 2013 Most Innovative Companies.

• Finally, we conducted more than 30 expert reviews to determine which companies to evaluate and explore their back story.

We then conducted visits across various digital and many physical touchpoints for the brands assessed, including Red Bull’s Meadowland Field, Walt Disney World, NASCAR’s Richmond International Raceway, and Marshalls Chicago store. We audited their various online, tablet, mobile, and physical properties and scored them in each of five experience dimensions.

…Using five proprietary Experience Dimensions

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The top experience-led brands

Contact Hilding Anderson for full report

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Our research suggests six imperatives for marketers

1. The consumer is never entirely passive.

2. Let the players tell the story.

3. We must redefine what it means to be the author.

4. Provide immersive experiences for all skill levels.

5. Plan for a lifetime.

6. To build powerful experiences, shape stories around an organizing idea.

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Imperative #1

1. The Consumer is never entirely passive. Brands must engage consumers by building worlds in which immersive experiences enable them to explore and interact with the brand. Doing so creates a wildly different outcome as compared to focusing on passive ads, which consumers tend to skip.

Examples include:

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Imperative #2

2. Let the players tell the story. The brand is the tool and world builder. But the players have significant power in determining how the story unfolds and often co-create with the brand.

Examples include:

*

* Disney is a mixed case – they significantly limit storytelling

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Imperative #3

3. We must redefine what it means to be the author. Authorship is no longer about a one-way telling of story; rather, the brand’s role is evolving to providing the components for a story that is authored by customers. Components can be mobile apps, digital platforms, sensors that collect consumer data, social media and more.

Examples include:

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Imperative #4

4. Provide Immersive Experiences for All Skill Levels: The design of the experience provided by the brand should be easy enough for a beginner but also challenging enough for an expert. This balance can be achieved by building a flexible “on-ramp” to the experience, whether it is a personal financial management platform (e.g., USAA) or a digitally enhanced family ski experience (e.g., Vail Resorts).

Examples include:

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Imperative #5

5. Plan for a Lifetime: Expect a multiyear investment. These are long-living customer platforms, delivering long-term value. They’re not campaigns.

Examples include:

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Imperative #6

6. To Build Powerful Experiences, Shape Stories around an Organizing Idea: Our research found that experience-led brands use themes to design, develop and maintain their experience space. Unifying and resonant themes make experiences much stronger.

Examples Include:

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Summary: Six Imperatives

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Trend 7: Innovations in Social Media

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While Facebook and Twitter remain dominant…

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q09 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13

(Millions)

Source: Company Filings

Monthly Active Users: Facebook vs. Twitter

Twitter

Facebook

1.1B monthly active users on FB, 200M MAU on Twitter

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The last six months has shown a significant growth in new things

Instagram

WhatsApp

Snapchat

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

Total U

ser B

ase Size

Source: News Reports, Company Listings, ComScore, BII Estimates

Total User Base

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WhatsApp: A social sharing app grows carries more messaging traffic than Facebook

• 44% use WhatsApp at least once a week, whereas just 35 per cent use Facebook messenger. (1)

• The research by On Device also found that Snapchat’s largest source of users are 16 to 24‐year‐olds in the US; the same group which research has suggested is leaving Facebook.

• In April, WhatsApp’s chief executive Jan Koumclaimed that the service now has more users than Twitter and carries more messages than Facebook. 

• He said WhatsApp carries as many as 20 billion messages per day, double Facebook’s daily message traffic. 

• No advertising (0.99 annual fee) 

20B messages per day, no advertising permitted

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2013 has been a remarkable year for WhatsApp

810 1112

17

20

200

Active Users

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

5

10

15

20

25

Apr‐13 Jun‐13 Aug‐13

Num

ber O

f Active Users (M

illions)

Num

ber O

f Daily M

essages (Billion

s)

Source: WhatsApp, News Reports

WhatsApp Growth

Messages Sent Messages Received

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Video and photo sharing tools are expanding

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And Snapchat has nearly half the photo sharing market

Facebook46%

Snapchat46%

Instagram7%

Flickr1%

Top Photo Sharing Sites, August 2013Share Of Average Daily Photo Uploads Among Top 4 Sites (544 Million Daily Uploads 

Total)

Source: BI Intelligence

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• Two-thirds of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2017.

• Five tweets per second contain a Vine link.

• Instagram has about 130 million users, compared to Vine’s 13 million users.

• Instagram videos are creating two-timesmore engagement than Instagram photos.

Vine

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Instagram had 4x Vine’s traffic during December 2013

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And Vine remains niche – below newcomer WhatsApp

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Broadly, several other innovations in Social Media

The video opportunity: New video ad products and partnerships with TV networks will provide branding opportunities and may help social media platforms gain access to coveted TV ad budgets.

Social = mobile: Facebook has become a powerhouse in mobile, while Twitter gets two-thirds of its ad revenues from the medium. For many marketers, the easiest way into mobile advertising will be via social media.

Native expansion: With the success of feed-based ads in 2013, social companies will increase the number of ads users see—and the chances of backlash will rise.

Social ads get more programmatic: More social media ads will be bought

programmatically as technology improves to support real-time content initiatives.

Moving beyond the walled garden: Via MoPub, Twitter will start selling ads outside of its own service. Facebook has also restarted its own tests of a mobile ad network.

Location makes a comeback: After a few years on the back burner, geotargeted social media advertising will come back into the spotlight.

New venues, new ad opportunities: Instagram and Pinterest are starting to sell ads, providing fresh opportunities to reach consumers.

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Trend 8: Hardware is the new software

aka ‘Put Some Internet On It’

"The category of the smart watch, that's just a train wreck right now. People are trying to basically pack all of the stuff in the phone on a watch. We're talking about keyboards that are one‐inch wide…No one's going to adopt that," said Zachary Jean Paradis, director of innovation strategy at SapientNitro.

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Trend 8: Hardware is the new softwareBuilding on the 2013 CES, this year we expect a continued proliferation of screen sizes and display

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Pebble 2014: The Pebble Steel

And developers are ‘adding sexy’ and design to hardware

Pebble 2013

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VC firms are restructuring to provide more design skills to startups

The program, dubbed KPCB ProductWorks, will offer the usual mentoring, recruiting and technical help that the firm’s startups have come to expect, but the new program sets up a formal process for working on product development. 

Key Hire: • John Maeda (RISD) who is leaving his post as 

the president of the Rhode Island School of Design to start work with the venture capital firm in January.

• “while design isn’t a new idea in technology development, it’s often not given the same weight as, say, engineering, because not enough consideration is given to creating a great experience for those who will actually buy and use the product.”

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And searching for a killer app…The $99 ‘June’ bracelet from Netatmo measures UV intensity; targeting women taking care of their skin

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And searching…

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And searching…

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And it isn’t just screen size: resolution, colors and form-factors are proliferatingFrom Apple Retina display, to 4d UltraHD, to curved displays

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Rise of the Android PCPCs are now offered with hybrid Android and Windows 8 – or just Android

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We’re still figuring out the right UI for wearables

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Trend 9: Startups from 2013

(that marketers should care about)

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SmartThings: The Connected HomeSee the upcoming article “The Digital Home”

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Scanadu: Check your health as easily as your email A startup creating sensor that collects and sends your information to a doctor: 3 clinics - the ER (hooked up)/electromagnetic, Labs, Imaging (CT/MRI/Ultrasound)

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Oculus VR

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Leap Motion, the device that lets you control a computer interface with hand gestures, is ideal for gaming and design and also lets you explore cities or the environment via Google Earth and other apps. The gadget is three inches long and plugs into your computer through its USB port.

The Leap Motion Controller tracks your hands and fingers, and is hypersensitive to movements including pinching, grasping and swiping. This year, the company partnered with HP and plans on embedding the motion-control technology on future HP devices. Leap Motion retails for $79.99, so it’s an inexpensive way to begin experimenting with gesture-controlled technologies.

Leap Motion: Gesture control goes main stream

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Long news articles and small screens just don't play well together.

Circa solves that problem by condensing the news and making it much easier to read while on-the-go. Tediously reading long articles just to stay up to date is a thing of the past with Circa’s factual and comprehensive, but to-the-point news coverage.

Circa: Taking content and breaking it down into snackable chunks

103

FLIR will offer a heat-sensitive sensor to your iPhone

104

Thank You!