rusty blackbird survivorship and habitat selection...
TRANSCRIPT
Rusty Blackbird Survivorship and Habitat Selection During the
Post-fledging Period
Patti Newell Wohner Carol R. Foss
Russ Greenberg Robert Cooper
Insert stormy skies
44.5o to 45.0o N <1200’ to >2000’ 360m to 630m
Nest survival 2014
Total nests monitored 47 Nests with known outcome 42 Nests failed 9 Nests fledged 33 Success rate 78.6%
Model likelihoods
Location model (upland vs. wetland) 1.0000
Null model 0.1807
Isolation model (single vs. colony) 0.0862
Date model 0.0664
Daily Survival Rates
Upland
Estimate 0.9929
SE 0.0035
Lower 95% CI 0.9814
Upper 95% CI 0.9973
Wetland
0.9655
0.0153
0.9193
0.9856
Annual Survival
Banding Effort
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
AHY HY Recapture/Resight
20 0 0
25 32 4
35 77 9
19 25 7
37 80 5
36 125 16
172 339 41
Return Summary
Banded as HY 214
Returned 4
Return rate 1.9%
One recapture 3
Two recaptures 1
Banded as adult 134
Returned 23
Return rate 17.2%
One recapture 18
Two recaptures 5
Survival Analysis
Model AICc Delta Weight ML
Phi(t)p(.) 274.6942 0.0000 0.4314 1.0000
Phi(.)p(.) 275.4860 0.7918 0.2904 0.6731
Phi(.)p(t) 276.0385 1.3443 0.2204 0.5106
Phi(t)p(t) 278.7066 4.0124 0.0580 0.1345
Real Estimates
Parameter Estimate SE Apparent Survival Parameter (Phi ) 09-10 0.54215 0.31334 10-11 0.89076 0.35953 11-12 0.25542 0.10339 12-13 0.35589 0.14910 13-14 0.74019 0.31084 Recapture Parameter (p) 0.13670 0.05212
Telemetry
32 19
1026
1889
340 450
268 107
1066
5874
337 172
0
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NH Bird Records Rusty Blackbirds
January-December 1949-2009
Total
Radio-transmittered 61 Rusty Blackbirds 2010-2012
Included both adults and fledglings
Collected location data daily June to mid-August
0 10 20 30 40
DAYS
0
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DIS
T
Hatch year 20 observations 33 days R=0.782
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
DAYS
0
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DIS
T
Hatch year 34 observations 60 days R=0.707
Dixie Male 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
DAYS
0
1000
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DIS
T
Adult male 52 observations 80 days R=0.372
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
DPF
0
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DC
Adult male 67 observations 76 days R=0.101
Telemetry Data
Year # Birds # Points
2010 20 318
2011 24 993
2012 17 626
735 location points from post-fledging period
38 birds (28 adult, 10 HY) that survived >30 days
806 randomly generated pseudo-absence points
30-m radius around each point
Model Variables
NH Rivers and Streams layer • 3rd to 6th order streams • 1st to 3rd order streams • Any order stream NH Wetlands layer • Beaver-created wetland • Seasonal wetland • Forested wetland • Any wetland
• NH Soils layer • Poorly drained soil • Slope <8%
Forest Stand Cover data • Alder wetland • Any vegetated wetland • Softwood timber • Seedling/sapling timber • Softwood
seedling/sapling timber
Three areas evaluated separately
Interior Swift Diamond
Mollidgewock New Hampshire
Habitat Use Model
• Spatial logistic regression • Used model selection to determine best model • Avoided correlated variables (>0.5) in same model • Used SAM to account for space in the error term
Rachel Rabinovitz
Results
No significant difference between adults and HYs
No significant difference between years
Predictive variables for all sites and years combined + spruce-fir seedling/sapling stands
- distance to any wetland
- distance to any order stream
+ low slope
Similarities between sites saplings, any wetland
Differences between sites distance to streams
low slope, poor drainage
Field crews
Jay Barry
Hope Batcheller
Sinead Borchert
Jess Cosentino
Elizabeth Dancer
Laura Deming
Sam Edwards
Sean Hribal
Shannon Buckley Luepold
Grace Mitchum
Luke Powell
Eian Prohl
Rachel Rabinovitz
Cindy Ross
Financial support: Charles Blake Fund of the Nuttall Ornithological Club Conservation Biology Fund at the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation Lorus and Margery Milne Fund of the Audubon Society of New Hampshire Plum Creek Umbagog NWR Conservation Fund USFWS Migratory Bird Program William P. Wharton Trust Wagner Forest Management, Ltd.
Logistical Support:
Dartmouth College Errol Motel Lighthawk Lorraine Turner Harold P. “Flip” Nevers Bigelow Woods The kind man with the super dog on Lone Pine Road