russia dimensional lumber market

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Demo-Version

Russia: Dimensional

Lumber Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

August 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

from 34 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russia: Dimensional Lumber Market. August 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian dimensional lumber market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main manufacturers;

Analysis of imports and exports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Analysis of the raw materials’ base;

Analysis of the state of the consuming industries;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report contains information on the following commodity groups:

Lumber, including lumber from raw materials;

Commodity lumber products for building construction;

Mine lagging;

Bridge beams for oil rigs.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian dimensional lumber market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains 120 pages, 38 tables, and 64 figures.




The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Why People Choose Us

• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have

completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts

verify all secondary information used in the report.

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the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian dimensional lumber market

and build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Description of dimensional lumber

4. Characteristics of the raw materials’ base

5. Technology of production of dimensional lumber

6. Characteristics of the Russian dimensional lumber market in 2005 - July 2012.

Forecast for 2012 - 2017

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian dimensional lumber market in 2005 - July

2011. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

6.2. Structure of the dimensional lumber market: production, exports, imports,

consumption

7. Characteristics of the domestic production of dimensional lumber in 2005 - July

2012. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

7.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of dimensional lumber in 2005 - July

2012

7.2. Production of mine lagging and bridge timbers for oil rigs

7.3. Structure of the production of dimensional lumber by regions of the Russian

Federation

7.4. Manufacturing capacities and their level of loading

7.5. Level of concentration of competition on the market

7.6. Main manufacturers of dimensional lumber and their corresponding market

shares

7.6.1. CJSC “Lesozavod 25”

7.6.2. CJSC "Novoeniseiskiy LHK"

7.6.3. OJSC “Lesosibirskiy LDK №1”

7.6.4. OJSC “Solombalskiy Lumber-Wood Processing Factory”

7.6.5. OJSC “UI LDZ”

7.6.6. OJSC "ONEZHSKIY LDK"

8. Characteristics of the prices of dimensional lumber

8.1. Dynamics of the manufacturers’ prices of dimensional lumber

8.2. Comparison of manufacturers’ prices of dimensional lumber by Federal Districts of

the Russian Federation

9. Characteristics of the imports of dimensional lumber to the Russian market

9.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of dimensional lumber

9.2. Manufacturing countries, importing dimensional lumber to the territory of the

Russian Federation

9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the dimensional lumber, imported to the

Russian Federation

9.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of dimensional lumber

9.5. Structure of the imports of dimensional lumber by regions of the Russian

Federation




10. Characteristics of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber

10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber

10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber

10.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying dimensional lumber for exports

10.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber

11. Factors, influencing the development of the dimensional lumber market

11.1. State of the wood house building industry

11.2. State of the construction industry

11.3. State of the furniture industry

12. Characteristics of the consumption of dimensional lumber

12.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of dimensional lumber in 2005 - July

2012. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

12.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of dimensional lumber by Federal

Districts of the Russian Federation in 2005 - July 2012. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

12.3. Structure of the consumption of dimensional lumber by industries in 2005 - July

2012. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

13. Forecast for the development of the dimensional lumber market in 2012 -

2017

13.1. Evaluation of the potential volume of supply of dimensional lumber in 2012 -

2017

Appendix 1. Profiles of the leading manufacturers




List of Tables

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of the dimensional lumber market in 2005 - 2011 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of cubic meters

Table 2. Production of dimensional lumber in 2005 - July 2012, in thousands of cubic

meters

Table 3. Dynamics of production of lagging mines in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of cubic

meters

Table 4. Volume of production of dimensional lumber by regions of the Russian Federation

in 2011, in thousands of cubic meters

Table 5. Characteristics of the manufacturers of dimensional lumber and their corresponding

market shares

Table 6. Volume of the imports of dimensional lumber by manufacturing countries in 2011,

in thousands of cubic meters

Table 7. Volume of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011, in millions of USD


manufacturing countries in January - July 2012, in thousands of cubic meters


manufacturing countries in January - July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 10. Volume of the imports of dimensional lumber by manufacturing companies in

2011, in thousands of cubic meters


manufacturing companies in 2011, in millions of USD


manufacturing companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of USD


importing companies in 2011, in thousands of cubic meters


importing companies, in millions of USD


importing companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of cubic meters


importing companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 17. Volume of the imports of dimensional lumber by regions of the Russian Federation

in 2011, in thousands of cubic meters


in 2011, in millions of USD


in January - July 2012, in thousands of cubic meters


in January - July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 21. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by recipient countries in






2011, in millions of USD


January - July 2012, in thousands of cubic meters


January - July 2012, in millions of USD

Table 25. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by manufacturing

companies in 2011, in thousands of cubic meters


companies in 2011, in millions of USD


companies January-June 2012, in thousands of cubic meters


companies in January-June 2012, in millions of USD

Table 29. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in 2011,


Table 30. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in 2011,

in millions of USD

Table 31. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in

January - July 2012, in thousands of cubic meters

Table 32. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in

January - July 2012, in millions of USD

Table 33. Dynamics of construction works in 2008 - July 2012

Table 34. Dynamics of commissioning of residential buildings in 2008 - July 2012, in millions

of square meters.

Table 35. Consumption of dimensional lumber in 2005 - July 2012. Forecast for 2012 -


Table 36. Consumption of dimensional lumber in 2005 - July 2012 and forecast for 2012 -

2017, by industries, in thousands of cubic meters

Table 37. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand on the dimensional lumber

market in 2005 - 2017, in thousands of cubic meters

Table 38. Forecast for the development of the dimensional lumber market in 2005 - 2017,





List of Figures

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the dimensional lumber market in 2005 - 2011 and forecast for

2012 - 2017, in thousands of cubic meters

Fig. 2. Dynamics and structure of the dimensional lumber market in 2005 - 2011 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of cubic meters

Fig. 3. Production of dimensional lumber in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of cubic meters

Fig. 4. Production of dimensional lumber in January 2010 - June 2012, in thousands of cubic

meters

Fig. 5. Production of dimensional lumber in January 2009 - June 2012, in %, to the

analogical period of the previous year

Fig. 6. Dynamics of production of mine laggings in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of cubic

meters

Fig. 7. Structure of the production of dimensional lumber by regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011 in physical terms

Fig. 8. Capacities for the production of dimensional lumber in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of

cubic meters

Fig. 9. Level of usage of the average annual capacities for the production of dimensional

lumber in 2005 - 2011, in %

Fig. 10. Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of uncut dimensional lumber in the

Russian Federation in January - December 2011

Fig. 11. Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of uncut dimensional lumber in the

Russian Federation in January - June 2012

Fig. 12. Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of uncut dimensional lumber in the

Russian Federation in January 2010 - June 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of

the previous year

Fig. 13. Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of cut dimensional lumber in the

Russian Federation in January - December 2011

Fig. 14. Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of cut dimensional lumber in the

Russian Federation in January - June 2012

Fig. 15. Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of cut dimensional lumber in the

Russian Federation in January 2010 - June 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of

the previous year

Fig. 16. Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of uncut dimensional lumber by

Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in June 2012

Fig. 17. Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of cut dimensional lumber by

Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in June 2012

Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation in January

- December 2011, in thousands of cubic meters


- December 2011, in millions of USD


- June 2012, in thousands of cubic meters





- June 2012, in millions of USD

Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms


manufacturing countries in 2011 in value terms


manufacturing countries in January-May 2012 in physical terms


manufacturing countries in January-May 2012 in value terms


manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms


manufacturing companies in 2011 in value terms


manufacturing companies in January-May 2012 in physical terms


manufacturing companies in January-May 2012 in value terms


importing companies in 2011 in physical terms


importing companies in 2011 in value terms


importing companies in January-May 2012 in physical terms


importing companies in January-May 2012 in value terms

Fig. 34. Structure of the imports of dimensional lumber by regions of the Russian Federation

in 2011 in physical terms


in 2011 in value terms


in January-June 2012 in physical terms


in January-June 2012, in millions of USD

Fig. 38. Dynamics of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber in January - December


Fig. 39. Dynamics of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber in January - December

2011, in millions of USD

Fig. 40. Dynamics of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber in January - May 2012, in

thousands of cubic meters

Fig. 41. Dynamics of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber in January - May 2012, in

millions of USD

Fig. 42. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by recipient countries in

2011 in physical terms





2011 in value terms


January-May 2012 in physical terms


January-May 2012 in value terms

Fig. 46. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by manufacturing

companies in 2011 in physical terms


companies in 2011 in value terms


companies in January-May 2012 in physical terms


companies in January-May 2012 in value terms

Fig. 50. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in 2011

in physical terms

Fig. 51. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in 2011

in value terms

Fig. 52. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in

January-June 2012 in physical terms

Fig. 53. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by sending regions in

January-June 2012 in value terms

Fig. 54. Dynamics of construction works in 2008 -2011, in billions of RUR

Fig. 55. Quarterly dynamics of the volume of construction works in 2008 - 2011, in billions

of RUR

Fig. 56. Volume of construction works in 2008 - 2011, in %, to the analogical period of the

previous year

Fig. 57. Dynamics of commissioning of residential buildings in the Russian Federation in

2008 - 2011, in millions of square meters

Fig. 58. Quarterly dynamics of the commissioning of residential buildings in the Russian

Federation in 2008 - 2011, in millions of square meters

Fig. 59. Commissioning of residential buildings and share of individual house buildings in the

total commissioned area in 1991 -2011, in millions of square meters of common area

Fig. 60. Structure of the volume of construction of residential buildings by subjects of the

Russian Federation in 2011, in thousands of square meters

Fig. 61. Dynamics of the consumption of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation in

2005 - 2017, in thousands of cubic meters

Fig. 62. Structure of the consumption of dimensional lumber by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011

Fig. 63. Structure of the consumption of dimensional lumber by industries in 2011

Fig. 64. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand on the dimensional lumber

market in 2005 - 2017, in thousands of cubic meters.




Executive Summary*

…

The volume of supply on the Russian dimensional lumber market in 2012 was almost …

tons, which is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the

volume of imported products on the dimensional lumber market was …%.

The volume of production of dimensional lumber in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher

than the volume of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all dimensional lumber manufactured in the Russian Federation in

2012 belongs to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of dimensional lumber in Russia amounted to … tons in physical

terms and to … thousand USD in value terms.

In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber was … tons, which was

equal to … thousand USD in value terms.

…

*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes

only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more

information, you can contact us at: [email protected].

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market

mailto:[email protected]




6. Characteristics of the Russian

dimensional lumber market

...

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian dimensional lumber

market in 2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian dimensional lumber market in 2012 was almost …

tons, which is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the

volume of imported products on the dimensional lumber market was …% of the total

market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the dimensional lumber market in 2008 - 2012

and forecast for 2013 -2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario)




6.2. Structure of the dimensional lumber market in Russia:

production, exports, imports, consumption

The volume of imports of dimensional lumber in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of

the total market volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented

below.

Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the dimensional lumber market in 2008 -

2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of production

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of

exports In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the dimensional lumber market in 2008 -

2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Production Consumption

Exports Imports




7. Characteristics of the domestic

production of dimensional lumber in

Russia in 2007 - 2012

…

7.1 Volume and dynamics of dimensional lumber production in

2007 - 2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 8 Dimensional lumber production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares





Fig. 9 Dimensional lumber production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of tons and in

%, to the previous year




7.6 The main manufacturers of dimensional lumber and their

corresponding market shares

The main manufacturers of dimensional lumber in Russia in 2011 were Company A,

Company B, and Company C. They produced …, …, and … tons, respectively. They were

followed by Company D (… tons, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (…

tons - …%).

Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010

- 2011, in thousands of tons

Manufacturer Region

Production

of

dimensional

lumber, in

tons

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




8. Characteristics of dimensional lumber prices 8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of dimensional lumber

Manufacturers’ prices of dimensional lumber have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through …

RUR/ton in 2009 to … RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They

reached their highest value in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous

year.

Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of dimensional lumber in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/

ton

In % to analogical period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous month

In RUR/

ton

In % to analogical

period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous month

January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).




December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%





9. Characteristics of the imports of

dimensional lumber to the Russian

market 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of

dimensional lumber

…

The volume of Russian imports of dimensional lumber in 2011 was … tons. The largest

amount of dimensional lumber was imported in …, when were imported … tons.

Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian

Federation in January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)





Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011, in tons

9.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported

dimensional lumber on the territory of the Russian Federation

Country A was the leader in terms of imports of dimensional lumber (in physical terms) in

2011, with a share of …% of the total. The country imported … tons of dimensional lumber

in 2011. The second place was taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … tons of

dimensional lumber (a share of …%, respectively). In the third place was Country C with a

share of …%.





Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation

by manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 24. Volume of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation

by manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons

Country of origin Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the dimensional

lumber, imported to the Russian Federation

Company A was the leader in terms of imports of dimensional lumber (in physical terms) in

2011, with a share of …% of the total. The company imported … tons of dimensional lumber

in 2011. The second place was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … tons of

dimensional lumber (a share of …%, respectively). In the third place was Company C with a

share of …%.

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS





Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation

by manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms

Table 26. Volume of the imports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation

by manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons

Manufacturing company Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Company A … …%

Company B … …%

Company C … …%

Company D … …%

Company E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Company A

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

OTHERS




10. Characteristics of the Russian

exports of dimensional lumber 10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of

dimensional lumber

…

The volume of Russian exports of dimensional lumber in 2011 was … tons. The largest

amount of dimensional lumber was exported in …, when were exported … tons.

Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of dimensional lumber in the Russian

Federation in January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …






Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of dimensional lumber in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011, in tons

10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of dimensional

lumber

In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber was

Country A. Its share in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%)

and Country C (…%). To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively.

The combined share of the other countries is …%.





Fig. 29. Structure of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by recipient

countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of dimensional lumber by recipient

countries in 2011, in tons

Recipient country Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


…

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS




12. Characteristics of consumption

of dimensional lumber 12.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of dimensional

lumber in 2008 - 2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017

The volume of consumption of dimensional lumber in 2012 was … tons, which was …%

more, compared to 2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of

dimensional lumber in recent years - a decline of …% to … thousand tons. Another decline in

recent years was observed in 2009, when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At

the end of 2012, the consumption of dimensional lumber almost reached the level in 2010,

but the growth is not yet possible to reach the pre-crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.

According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help

consumption of dimensional lumber increase in the next few years with rates of …-…%

annually. Thus, by 2017, the consumption can reach … million tons. The demand for

dimensional lumber in the country will be met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers,

who account for over …% of the market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of dimensional lumber in the Russian

Federation in 2008 – 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons




12.2. Structure of consumption of dimensional lumber by

industries

Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of dimensional lumber are taken by

Industry A (…%) and Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market,

while Industry D consumes about …% of the dimensional lumber in Russia.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of dimensional lumber by industries in

2012

35%

37%

10%

8%

10% Industry A Industry B

Industry C Industry D

Others




12.3. Balance between production and consumption of

dimensional lumber

In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the

consumption of dimensional lumber and projections for increase in production.

Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the

difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will

be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in

made in Kazakhstan.

Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the

dimensional lumber market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017,

in thousands of tons

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production … … … … … … … … … …

Consumption … … … … … … … … … …

Balance

(Production-

Consumption)

… … … … … … … … … …

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the dimensional

lumber market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands

of tons

20082009

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About IndexBox "IndexBox" is a leading company in the sphere of marketing research and business

consulting. We carry out marketing research studies, prepare business plans, build business

models and consult on questions about marketing and sales.

Our clients are big Russian and foreign companies:

Marketing research

Our specialization - the study of consumer and industrial markets, segments of B2C and

B2B. Among the methods used: desk research, consumer surveys, expert surveys,

competitive analysis, sales audit, a wide range of qualitative market research products and

services. Our competitive advantage is the formation of special research techniques to the

tasks of each project. System planning and operational monitoring of the industry, created a

company that allows professionals to operate in IndexBox their work relevant and accurate

information.

Business planning

We are professionally engaged in developing business plans, feasibility studies, investment

memoranda, conduct financial analysis of enterprises and prepare analysis for transactions

M & A. Business plans developed by IndexBox, contain a complete financial model for the

further implementation of the project, all calculations are based on marketing information,

which is permanently collected and analyzed for over 7 years. Documents comply with the

standards of Russian and foreign banks, the projects have market feasibility and realistic

projections, and we provide assistance in finding an investor and financing, legal support.

Consulting

We develop strategic development for brands, products, separate business units and

industry. Generally, programs include product, pricing, marketing and communication




strategy. Projects in the field of strategic marketing are relevant to large enterprises,

financial and investment companies that are planning to expand its interests as well as

small companies that are thinking about business development.
