russ johnson - understanding disasters: geospatial technologies in risk reduction and disaster...
TRANSCRIPT
Plenary Session 4 Understanding Disasters: Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management
GRF
GLOBAL RISK FORUM
GRF DAVOS
“From Thought to Action”
Director of Public Safety
Esri
Russ Johnson
Principal Consultant
DTS Wildfire
Dr. Joaquin Ramirez
Knowing the Enemy Geospatially
GIS Analyst/Rapid Mapping Expert
UNOSAT -
United Nations Institute for Training and Research
Wendi Pedersen
Satellite Analysis for Disaster Monitoring and Response
Science Advisor
Pacific Disaster Center
Dr. Heather Bell
Geospatial Technologies for Understanding Risk
Emergency Management Industry Manager
Esri
Senior Public Safety Solutions Engineer
Esri
Ryan Lanclos
Jeff Baranyi
GIS and Disaster Management :
“Building a Common Operating Platform”
I need a Map.
Maps help us relate and understand…
…filter away the noise.
2008 VP Debate
Tampa Super Bowl
Commonwealth
Of
Kentucky
Univ of Alabama
City of Houston
Virginia - VIPER Obama Inauguration
Golden Guardian Exercise
BP Oil Spill
Apps help us relate and understand…
…filter away the noise.
I need knowledge.
I need knowledge…
• Are we prepared?
• Where are we vulnerable?
• Can we support damage assessment?
• What is the current situation?
• What are our partners doing?
• Are we talking to the public?
Answer the need for knowledge…
A Common Operating Platform
Supporting the Emergency Management Lifecycle…
Response Recovery
Empower everyone… Supporting the Mission
Planning &
Mitigation
Planning and
Analysis
Data
Management
Field
Mobility
Situational
Awareness
Citizen
Engagement
Incident Command System (ICS)
National Response Framework - ESF
PIO
Mission Specific Maps and Apps
Logistics
Command
Operations
…Aligning with EM workflows
PIO Logistics Command Operations
ICS
Alignment
National Response Framework
ESF 1- 15
Common Operating Platform…
…that answers the need for knowledge.
Existing Systems
Planning &
Analysis
Desktop
Tablets
Smart Phones
Web Sites
Online
Browsers
Social Media
Platform
Empower Everyone…
…everywhere.
Transform information into knowledge to action.
GIS for Disaster Management
• Reference Architecture
• Common Repository Tools and Data
• Mission Specific Templates
• Open and Extensible
• Empowers the Organization
Common Operating Platform
Operation Scenario
• Daily Operations for Preparedness
• M 7.7 Earthquake
• Multi-Agency Response
Commonwealth of Kentucky
New Madrid Seismic Zone
Emergency Management Roles
• Watch Officer
• Planning Officer
• Assessment Team
• PIO
• GIS Specialist
Data Management
• Collect
• Manage
• Collaborate
• Operationalize
Planning and Analysis
• Vulnerability Analysis
• Collaborate
• Prepare
Field Mobility
• Enable Workflows
• Align to Mission
• Update in Real Time
Citizen Engagement
• Communicate
• Connect
• Engage
Situational Awareness
• Aligned to Organization
• Mission Specific Apps
• Enhanced Situational Awareness
• Disaster Management
- Common Operational Picture
- Damage Assessment
- Maps
- Flood Planning
- Citizen Service Request
- Special Events
• Fire
- Run Book
- Station Wall Map
- Pre-fire Planning
• Humanitarian
- OpenStreetMap Editor, Ushahidhi Add-in
Public Safety Resource Center Templates to help you get started
GIS for Disaster Management Workshop
• Tuesday - 6:30pm – 7:15pm Dischma Room
• Wednesday - 7:15pm – 8:00pm Dischma Room
• Abstract:
- Learn best practices and resources to implement GIS in
support of disaster management.
- Topics will include:
- Configure your Flex Viewer for Situational Awareness
- Deploy GIS in a mobile environment
- Getting Started with ArcGIS Online
- Baseline Template resources for common disaster management
workflows
Summary
• Focus on a Common Operating Platform
• Empower the Organization
• Align with the Mission
• Answer the need for Knowledge.
Planning and
Analysis
Data
Management
Field
Mobility
Situational
Awareness
Citizen
Engagement
Principal Consultant
DTS Wildfire
Dr. Joaquin Rameriz
knowing the
enemy
geospatially NEAR-REALTIME WILDFIRE
SIMULATIONS TO SUPPORT
Dr Joaquin Ramirez
DTSWildfire Tecnosylva
Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA
750 m€ fire
season
160.00
0 ha lost
480 m€ losses
MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE
28/06/2012 11:35
MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE
29/06/2012 12:05
FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARS
BURNT AREA: 11.770 ha
MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE
30/06/2012 11:10
FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARS
BURNT AREA: 24.012 ha (+9.143)
FIRE: ANDILLA
BURNT AREA: 5.371 ha
11 km diameter
fire ball
0
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12000000
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10
acr
es
bu
rnt
Fires
Acres
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_
statistics.html
fires
Where do we go Fire scenarios from 2010 to 2070 (ATSR Fire Atlas based)
Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K, 2009. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4): e5102. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102
Climate projections include 2010–2039 (A,), 2040–2069 (B) and 2070–2099 (C).
Changes in the global distribution of fire-prone pixels under the A2 (mid-high) emissions scenario
Fire Paradox
The better
we are
fighting
fires, the
bigger
those we
cannot win
If you know
yourself and
your enemy,
you can win a
hundred
battles
without
jeopardy. SunTzu, Art of War
600 BC
The Art of
War by Sun
Tzu, 600 BC
FB: A YOUNG
SCIENCE Harry T. Gisborne
First true
specialist in
forest fire
research in
the US
Jack S. Barrow
Director
of the
Missoula
Fire Lab The Mann
Gulch Fire
(1949)
http://goo.gl/amuxP
topography
weather
http://goo.gl/WkiKO
extr
eme
http://goo.gl/WkiKO
fuels
overs
tocke
d
= extreme
behavior
fires
The science
and art of
Fire Sim Where is it going to be in the next
hours?
When can we expect to stop it?
What is the risk to this community?
All this question
have an spatial
answer
Models are out
there Models completed in period 1990-
2007
12 Physical
7 quasi-physical
15 empirical
5 quasi-empirical
11 simulation
22 mathematical analogous Andrew L. Sullivan
Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007 International Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume 18 Number 4 2009
.
We need to take sims
from the lab…
LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml
to the operation
personnel…
to the Incident
Command Post …
… to support
safer operations
Users expect
relevant
information
fire
progres
sion
Ignition points
from fire
department CADs
fire
progres
sion
Immediate
results where
the fire will
arrive in the
next few hours
evacuat
ion
time
risk on
vulnerable
assets (homes,
power lines, …)
evacuat
ion
time
Allows
preparedness
planning for
evacuation
purposes
On scene inmediate analysis on megafires www.wildfireanalyst.c
om
FAST iStock_000000525414
INTUITIVE mylesdgrant/5434978427
POWERFUL toptechwriter/338573258
Users expect
easy.
WILDFIREMAPS.COM BURNENGINE
hoyvinmayvin/516609595
BURNE ENGINE RESULTS
On scene inmediate analysis on megafires www.wildfiremaps.com
Whitewater-
Baldy Complex
Kristen Allison
BLM FBAN Type 1
100.000 ha
550 km
NEW
MEXICO
simulating
from IR
imagery
simulating
from IR
imagery
La Jonquera 13.000 ha / 4
hrs
Strategic
analysis in 20
min
Marc Castellnou
Analyst Chief
Catalonian Firefighters
accurate information for better
decission making
Wind
accurate information for better
decission making
60 % resources reallocated
based on the simulation
Office: +1 905.727.8352 Mobile: +1 970.213.4635
dtswildfire.com | dtsgis.com
Office: +34 987.849.486 Mobile: +34 696.922.909
www.DTSwildfire.com www.fiRESPONSE.com www.WildfireMaps.com www.WildfireAnalyst.com
More Information
It pays to
know the
enemy
not least because at some time you may have the opportunity to
turn him into a friend
Margaret Thatcher
GIS Analyst/Rapid Mapping
Expert
UNOSAT -
United Nations Institute for
Training and Research
Wendi Pedersen
Satellite Analysis for Disaster Monitoring and Response
Presentation to Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 8 February 2012
Wendi Pedersen
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference 2012, Davos Switzerland
98
UNOSAT: A Centre of Excellence for Satellite Analysis
UNOSAT is the Operational Satellite Applications Programme of UNITAR – entirely
dedicated to researching and applying solutions for satellite derived geospatial
information, integrated systems (GIS, navigation, and geo-positioning), and
knowledge transfer
Launched in 2000 as a project, it has evolved into a mature UN Centre of Excellence
with global outreach supported by a network of partners worldwide,
UNOSAT means over 1000 maps/analyses since 2000, tasking in over 250 disasters,
emergencies & conflicts; professional training; research & methodology
CERN support :30,000 core computing cluster , unlimited IT power and data storage
GIS as a resource
Illustration
Planning and operations (HQ vs.
Field )
Up to date and cost effective
Web-based, in the cloud, real-time
99
GIS as an enabling environment
Enables information to flow through emergency cycle phases and clusters
Readily available and inter-operable : one image is worth 1000 words
The “power of where” and the geospatial dimension as analytical tool
A solution capable of generating information management processes
TRENDS
UNOSAT - AREAS OF OUTPUT
Humanitarian Aid and Relief Coordination
• Crisis & Situational Mapping
• Damage assessment
Human Security
Monitoring
Human Rights
Safety and Security
Territorial Planning and Monitoring
Capacity Development & Technical Assistance
In-country project development
100
101
UNOSAT rapid mapping by type of emergency 2011
Floods 29%
Earthquakes 3%
Storms 11%
Volcanic activities 3%
Landslides 3%
Technical/Chemical 4%
Tsunamis 4%
Complex 36%
Exercises 7%
Pakistan Floods 2010
Inhabitable or
destroyed homes
Damaged
infrastructure
Economic damage,
agriculture loss
102
Section of Hunza Lake 2010
103
Hunza Landslide: January 4th 2010
A massive landslide blocked the Hunza river near Attabad in Gilgit-Baltistan
creating a natural dam that retained river water during the glacial melt season.
Blocked flow of the Hunza River for 5 months.
16.37km of Karakoram Highway (KKH) Flooded
As of 31st May lake size ~ 875 ha
104
Hunza Landslide 2010 105
106
Flood progression
15th May 2010 21st May 2010 31st May 2010
Pakistan flooding 2010 Natural aspects
Event start: End of July
Heavy rainfall in northern Pakistan
(Monsoon)
Flood extents from Swath valley to the
Arabic Sea
More than 37.000 Km2 of inundated land
Precipitated Water > Carrying capacity of
Indus River
Operational aspects
Multiscale analysis
MODIS, Radar, Optical
Different scale products delivered to end
users
107
108
Pakistan flooding 2010 – Human impact (18th August)
109
Sukkur Barrage causes retaining
water further upstream
Start of
Water
Overflow
Progress within 10 days
120 – 150km
Flood
prognosis
for the next
day
Flooding further downstream
Large Cities like Jacobabad are affected
110
111
Highly dynamic flooding
extent clearly required
more rapid and diverse
analysis report products
Multiple single page A4
“Situational Update” reports
produced with satellite
imagery usually acquired
same day
More focus on describing
current status in near real
time and even trying to
estimate flood movement in
next 48hrs
112
6) Comprehensive
time series of flood
datasets allowed
additional products
Final flood water
analysis was conducted
in October 2010
(Disaster started in late
July!)
113
• Multi-temporal analysis; disaster imagery
& archive imagery
• Use of multiple sensors to get the fullest
coverage of affected areas
• Deliverables given to end users were all
vectors derived from imagery analysis
Satellite Image Final Vector output
Terrasar-X from 21st September 2011
115 Satellite-derived Information
Information from regional-scale images
Flood extent
RADARSAT
Mekong River (Cambodia), 2008-floods
Cre
dits: U
NO
SA
T; E
SA
Reference image Disaster image Flood interpretation
116
117
New Product type request
from Local and
international agencies for
a Cumulative Maximum
Flood Water Extent
Dynamically combined all
flood water extents from
multiple dates and locations
into a single dataset
Continuously updated as
flood waters moved further
south inundating new areas
over one month after start of
disaster event
UNOSAT Satellite-derived maximum flood water
extent (July –October 2010) = 37,500km2
(controlled for normal pre-flood water extent
of rivers, reservoirs, lakes, etc. )
Total area of Pakistan = 796,662km2
(excluding Jammu Kashmir)
119
Conflict between Media, Government and Satellite-Based Estimates of the Pakistan Flooding Extent:
“20% or 1/5th of Pakistan”
“As large as England”
“approximately 130.000 Km2”
20 % of Pakistan
4.7 %
Relative comparison of inundated area
Total flood inundated area,
within 5 weeks, is according to UNOSAT
analysis 4.7% of the country.
120
Baseline geographic data combined with satellite imagery – Pakistan floods 2010
Google Map Maker Data for Pakistan
UNOSAT Flood
Water Analysis
Impact: Detailed and comprehensive preliminary damage analysis, feedback into DRR
+
121
Pakistan flooding 2010 Human impact GIS Analysis
Cross-referencing with other data-sets allows more detailed analysis
beyond natural impact
Quantifying the impact on population is still difficult
populated places are available but no accurate pop. Figures
Also documenting the impact on infrastructure (bridges, roads, hospitals...)
122
Flood extent data sharing
Social media integration, improved understanding, validation
Automatic geo-positioning and mapping of photos,
videos, text, voice (Android+)
Cost-efficient solutions (smart compression)
Tested in exercises, used in Haiti, Nigeria, Pakistan,
Thailand
GPS cameras, mobile phones (Android, iPhone)
124
Download the ASIGN Android App
www.geo-pictures.eu
125
Moving Forward Beyond Disaster Response
Disaster Risk Reduction capacity building
Increase in number of training courses in GIS and disaster risk reduction & response
Copenhagen, Nigeria, Costa Rica
Land-use analysis
Environmental impact analysis
Infrastructure Data
Roads, urban extents, ect. in remote areas where
disaster risk and vulnerability is high
126
In-country capacity development Activities
knowledge of
the territory
(information
gathering)
identification and
assessment of the
current situation
and trends (SWOT
analysis)
definition of a local development
strategy according to the diagnostic
plan
implementation and evaluation
and monitoring
awareness phase analytical phase implementation and good
governance phase
Where are things located ? Where should they be ? How to move them?
Strategic territorial planning & management
PREPAREDNES DIAGNOSTIC PLANNING IMPLEMENTATION AND FOLLOW UP
Geographic Information System
128
129
130
Thank you for your kind attention!
Questions?
Our services www.unitar.org/unosat
Your questions [email protected]
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC University of Hawaii: Managing Partnering
Presented By: Heather Bell, PhD
International Disaster Risk Conference 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland
Fostering Disaster-Resilient Communities through Information, Science, Technology and Exchange
DisasterAWARE
Risk and Vulnerability Assessment at PDC
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
Security and Sustainability through the Support of Disaster Risk
Reduction
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
Human-Environment
System
Event
Components of Disaster
Vulnerability
of Exposed
Elements
Hazard
Characteristics
In Exposed Area
Coping Capacity
of Exposed
Elements
Level of
Disruption
Beyond
Ability to Cope
Connectivity
Exposure/
Affected Area
PDC Addresses Each of these Components –
Singly and in Combination
Global Risk Assessment Project National Level Risk
Assessment for Globe Data and Results
Integrated Into PDC’s Applications
Support Familiarization and DM Decision Making
Visualize and Interact with Contextual Data at Multiple Levels
Make Relevant Contextual Data Easily Available in Multiple Forms
© Copyright 2012 - PDC
PDC’s DisasterAWARE
Integrated Multi-Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning
Integrated Modeling
Dynamic Data
Historical Hazards
Assets, Infrastructure and Population Data
Automated Reports
Information Sharing
Mobile Apps
© Copyright 2006 - 2012
Assessment Approach
Multi-Hazard Risk is average of Multi-Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity
Multi-Hazard Exposure based on estimated average annual exposure of GDP and Population to EQ, Tsunamis, Floods and Tropical Cyclone Winds
Vulnerability and Capacity considered hazard independent
Composite Index approach allows drill down into drivers of Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Coping Capacity
© Copyright 2012 - PDC
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
Multi-Hazard
Exposure
• Raw Exposure
• Pop
• GDP
• Relative
Exposure
• Pop
• GDP
Vulnerability
• Health Status
• Access to Clean
Water
• Access to Info
• Economic
Constraints
• Marginalization
• Population
Pressures
• Environmental
Stress
• Recent Impacts
• Displaced
Populations
Coping
Capacity
• Governance
• Economic
Strength
• Infrastructure • Comms
• Transport
• Healthcare
• Environmental
Strength
Global RVA Components
GNI per capita
Reserves per Capita
Economic
Strength
Political Stability
Control of Corruption
Voice and
Accountability
Rule of Law
Government
Effectiveness
Strength of
Government Infrastructure
MH Exposure Coping Capacity Vulnerability
Environmental
Strength
% Protected Area
Marine
Average Biome
Protection
% Protected Area
Terrestrial
Hospital Beds per
10,000 persons
Physicians per 10,000
persons
Nursing & Midwifery
per 10,000 persons
Airport & Seaport
Density
Road and Railroad
Density
DM Social Media Scale
Fixed & Mobile phone
subscriptions per 100
persons
Secure Internet Servers
per million people
Healthcare Transportation Communications
Global RVA Index Approach
© Copyright 2012 - PDC
Risk Component Index:
Coping Capacity
Sub-Component
Index: Infrastructure
Indicator: Hospital Beds
per 10000
© Copyright 2012 - PDC
Sub-Index: Health
Care Capacity
Example Scenario
What’s Going on?
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC August 27, 2012
Of the Countries “Affected” by the Tsunami, Which Might Be Least Capable of Dealing with the Effects?
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
Do We Have the Right Resources?
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Who Might Be Left Out of Response or Recovery Processes?
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Is the Outreach Approach Appropriate?
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
What About School Based Campaigns?
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(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
Questions?
Fostering Disaster-Resilient Communities Through
Information, Science, Technology, and Exchange
PDC 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2, Kihei, Hawaii 96753 http://www.pdc.org, [email protected] 1-808-891-0525 - 1-808-891-0526 (Fax) DisasterAWARE
University of Hawaii: Managing Partner
Heather Bell, PhD
Science Advisor
Editor-in-Chief, Risk,
Hazards & Crisis in Public
Policy
Pacific Disaster Center
808.891.7942
www.pdc.org
www.psocommons.org/rhcpp
(c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
Might Water Bourne Disease Be Exacerbated?
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Is the Population Already Unhealthy?
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Can the Health System Likely Handle an Emergency?
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What about other Impacts of Disaster?
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Do We Have the Right Supplies?
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Who Might Be Left out of Response and Recovery Processes?
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Is the Outreach Approach Appropriate?
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What about School Based Campaigns?
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What about Format?
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THANK YOU !