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Northwestern University Forum for Innovation and Change in Healthcare

February 17, 2010

Roadmaps and Roadmappingin Healthcare Industries

Richard E. Albrightrealbright@albrightstrategy.com

The Albright Strategy GroupRoadmaps and Roadmapping

Technology FuturesStrategy

www.albrightstrategy.com

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Key points

1. Roadmaps and Roadmapping– Roadmap objectives and purposes– A common planning framework

2. Case Studies: Industry and S&T Roadmaps– ITRS: Huge, recurring industry steering effort– Malaria Vaccine Roadmap: Targeted activity with a

focused objective– Fluid Power Industry Roadmap: New effort in industry

alignment.3. Roadmapping in Healthcare Industries

– What has been roadmapped in Healthcare?– What would a Healthcare Roadmap look like? What are

unique characteristics, what information?

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Roadmaps and Roadmapping

A Roadmap – is the view of a group of how to get where they

want to go, or achieve their desired objective. (Discipline)

– helps the group make sure the capabilities to achieve their objective are in place at the time needed. (Focus)

Roadmapping – is a Learning process for the group.– is a Communication tool for the group.

The learning and communication benefits of the roadmapping process are as important as the roadmap document that results.

Roadmapping Basics

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Types of Roadmaps

Roadmap Types Examples:Science and Technology

• Identify or Set Research Agenda

• Technology Assessment

• Malaria Vaccine Roadmap• Quantum Computing Roadmap• Structure and Evolution of the

Universe: Beyond Einstein Roadmap (NASA)

Industry and Government• Set Industry Direction• Coordinate Execution

• International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)

• US Dept. of Energy – Industries of the Future: Aluminum, Glass, Steel, …

• Japan Strategic Technology Roadmaps for National Innovation System (METI & NEDO)

Enterprise/Corporate• Set and Monitor Direction

• Coordinate Execution• Manage Portfolios

• Value Creation (Strategy) Roadmaps

• Capability Roadmaps • Product-Technology and Platform Roadmaps

The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

(2009)

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ITRS 2009 Edition: 2010 - 2024

Roadmapping Basics

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Roadmap Planning in Four Steps

Pull

(requirements,drivers)

Push

(capabilities)

Time

“Know-why”

“Know-what”

“Know-how”

“Know-when”

Understand applications, customers’ and stakeholders’ drivers. Target key segments. Identify competitors, complementors, and

partners. Set strategic direction.

What characteristics/features are most important? Link application drivers to specific challenges and evolution. Set multi-year targets. Define the services/program architecture.

What capabilities and technologies are most important? Link drivers to capabilities/technologies and their evolution.

Identify multi-generation capability and technology investments to maintain services and competitiveness.

What resources and investments are needed? Plan projects with the highest priorities. Are capability/technology investments in the

most important areas? Identify and track risk areas.

Definition and Scope

Direction

Capability/Technology Roadmap

Summary and Action Plan“To-Do”

A roadmap covers four major topics, links them together with key drivers, and incorporates a strong sense of time:

Roadmapping Basics

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New Technologies

Position/StrategyCompetitor (share; base)

Strengths (+) and weaknesses (-)

Core Competency Strategic Goals Value Proposition

Company (x%; y%)

Competitor #1 (x%; y%)

Competitor #2 (x%; y%)

Competitor #3 (x %; y %)

-1 0 1

OurCo rel. position

Competitor #2Competitor #1O urCo

O urCo LeadsO urCo Lags

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Applications1. Nanostructured Materials “By Design;”2. Nanoelectronics, Optoelectronics And Magnetics3. Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics 4. Nanoscale Processes For Environmental Improvement5. Efficient Energy Conversion And Storage6. Microcraft And Robotics.7. Nanoscale Instrumentation And Metrology8. Manufacturing At The Nanoscale.9. Nanostructures For Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And

Explosive (CBRE) Detection And Protection For Homeland Defense.

Source: US National Nanotechnology Initiative: “Grand Challenges” for 2003

Industry Capability and Technology Roadmap

Capability/Technology Roadmap

(Know-how)

Map to Elements

Technology/Capability Roadmap

Targets/Priorities

Drivers/ChallengesCustomer or Complementor

Drivers

Architectural Fit

Ease of training and use

Value

Functionality

Interoperability

Service/Support

Product Drivers(Attributes)

PD1

PD2

PD3

PD4

PD5

PD6

PD7

Prioritize top to bottom

Industry Architecture

Direction(Know-what)

(Know-when)Definitionand Scope

(Know-why)

Risk Roadmap

Summary and Action Plan

(To-do)

Map to Investments

Action Summary

-1 0 1

O urCo rel. position

Competitor #2Competitor #1O urCo

OurCo LeadsO urCo Lags

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Drivers

• Prototyping• Calibration services• Maintain Commun Eqpmt• Maintain Heavy Eqpmt• Low Defect Rate• Flexible response and scheduling• One stop repair• Fast Response• Low Price (Cost of Service)

• Prototyping• Calibration services• Maintain Commun Eqpmt• Maintain Heavy Eqpmt• Low Defect Rate• Flexible response and scheduling• One stop repair• Fast Response• Low Price (Cost of Service)

Industry Direction

Understand Customer Marketsand Stakeholders’ Needs

Define the TechnologyInfrastructure and Envision Technology Advances

Build an Action Plan and Investment Strategy

Identify R&D Challengesand Research Objectives

Roadmapping Basics

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The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

• Objective: “Present industry-wide consensus on the ‘best current estimate’ of the industry’s research and development needs out to a 15-year horizon.”

• “A guide to the efforts of companies, universities, governments, and other research providers or funders.”

• Process:– Initiated by the Semiconductor Industry Association as the

National TRS in 1992– Became the International TRS in 1999.– Produced every two years (updated yearly).

TREND EXAMPLE

Integration Level Components/chip, Moore’s Law Cost Cost per function Speed Microprocessor throughput Power Laptop or cell phone battery life Compactness Small and light-weight products Functionality Nonvolatile memory, imager

• Objective: “What technical capabilities need to be developed for the industry to stay on Moore’s Law and the other trends?” Customer Drivers:

– Smaller– Faster– Cheaper– More (Integration)

• A technology focus: hundreds of parameter forecasts over the 15 year horizon.

INTERNATIONALTECHNOLOGY ROADMAPFOR SEMICONDUCTORS

Case Study:ITRS

Source: The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (2009)http://www.itrs.net/

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Industry Direction & Applications

Moving in two directions

-1 0 1

OurCo rel. position

Competitor #2Competitor #1O urCo

O urCo LeadsO urCo Lags

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Applications1. Nanostructured Materials “By Design;”2. Nanoelectronics, Optoelectronics And Magnetics3. Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics 4. Nanoscale Processes For Environmental Improvement5. Efficient Energy Conversion And Storage6. Microcraft And Robotics.7. Nanoscale Instrumentation And Metrology8. Manufacturing At The Nanoscale.9. Nanostructures For Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And

Explosive (CBRE) Detection And Protection For Homeland Defense.

Source: US National Nanotechnology Initiative: “Grand Challenges” for 2003

Industry Direction

Case Study:ITRS

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Segments & Customer Drivers

• Market (Customer) Drivers identified and mapped to system capability drivers.

-1 0 1

O urCo rel. position

Competitor #2Competitor #1O urCo

OurCo LeadsO urCo Lags

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer DriversDrivers/Challenges

Customer or ComplementorDrivers

Architectural Fit

Ease of training and use

Value

Functionality

Interoperability

Service/Support

Product Drivers(Attributes)

PD1

PD2

PD3

PD4

PD5

PD6

PD7

Prioritize top to bottom

ITRS

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Grand Challenges (Short Term)• LOGIC DEVICE SCALING [process integration,

devices, and structures, front end processes, modeling and simulation, and metrology]

• MEMORY DEVICE SCALING [process integration, devices, and structures, emerging research devices, front-end processes, modeling and simulation, and metrology]

• HIGH-PERFORMANCE, LOW-COST RF AND ANALOG/MIXED-SIGNAL SOLUTIONS [radio frequency and analog/mixed-signal technologies for wireless communications]

• NEW GATE STACK PROCESSES AND MATERIALS [process integration, devices, and structures and front end processes]

• 32 AND 22 NM HALF PITCH [lithography]• MASKS [lithography]• RESISTS [lithography]• INTRODUCTION OF NEW MATERIALS TO MEET

HIGH CONDUCTIVITY AND LOW DIELECTRIC PERMITTIVITY REQUIREMENTS [interconnect]

• ENGINEERING MANUFACTURABLE INTERCONNECT [interconnect]

• POWER MANAGEMENT [Design]…

Technology (R&D) Challenges

ITRS StructureWorking Groups (one for

each element of the structure)

• Develop forecasts and • Identify R&D Challenges

– Short Term – Long Term

Map to Elements

Technology RoadmapDrivers/Challenges

Customer or ComplementorDrivers

Architectural Fit

Ease of training and use

Value

Functionality

Interoperability

Service/Support

Product Drivers(Attributes)

PD1

PD2

PD3

PD4

PD5

PD6

PD7

Prioritize top to bottom

Case Study:ITRS

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ITRS Structure & RoadmapTimelinesITRS Structure/Architecture

(Working Groups)

• System Drivers & Design• Test & Test Equipment• Process Integration, Devices, &

Structures• RF & A/MS Technologies for Wireless

Communications• Emerging Research Devices• Emerging Research Materials• Front End Processes• Lithography• Interconnect• Factory Integration• Assembly & Packaging• Environment, Safety, & Health• Yield Enhancement• Modeling & Simulation

Dozens of 15 year Parameter Forecasts

Case Study:ITRS

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Setting Targets

Building on Experience

• Repeated, significant changes in product and technology1964 1984 1994 2004 20141974

10-6

10-7

10-5

10-8

2001-2005 International Technology Roadmap for

Semiconductors

Cumulative volume (DRAM bits)

Aver

age

Sel

ling

Pric

e (c

ents

/bit)

• Semiconductor Roadmap coordinates many industry players, driving “Moore’s Law”

http://www.itrs.net/

64

74

84

Case Study:ITRS

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Malaria Vaccine Roadmap

http://www.malariavaccineroadmap.net

Coordinating Research Direction

Leadership Malaria Vaccine Initiative (Gates Foundation) and other Funders.

Global Ownership

More than 230 people representing more than 100 organizations in 35 countries provided their input.

Vision The malaria vaccine community will develop an effective vaccine that prevents severe disease and death caused by Plasmodium falciparum malaria in children under five in sub-Saharan Africa and other highly endemic regions. Efficient global coordination and collaboration will stimulate the malaria vaccine pipeline and accelerate progress towards this achievement.

Landmark By 2015, develop and license a first generation malaria vaccine that has a protective efficacy of more than 50% against severe disease and death and lasts longer than one year.

Strategic Goal By 2025, develop and license a malaria vaccine that has a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and lasts longer than four years.

Case Study:Malaria Vaccine

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Malaria Vaccine RoadmapPrioritiesTo achieve the vision and goals, the malaria vaccinecommunity has identified 11 priority areas that, if

pursued, could accelerate the pace of progress. These priorities, composed of both new initiatives and ongoing efforts that require additional resources, represent the top priorities of the community.

These priorities originated from the 55 key activities that were drawn from more than 225 specific scientific and policy challenges identified through the consultative roadmap process. If appropriately resourced, implementing these priorities could considerably shorten the time required to develop and implement a malaria vaccine.

Research1. Develop a standard set of immunological assays

with standardized procedures and reagents to enable comparisons of the immune responses of vaccines.

2. Standardize clinical trial design and assessment to allow comparison of data and to determine correlates of protection.

3. Use state-of-the-art approaches, including functional genomics, to characterize the biological functions of proteins at the interface of host-parasite interactions and to identify novel potential antigen candidates.

4. Develop web-based information-sharing tools to strengthen connections between the laboratory and the clinic.

Vaccine Development5. Establish a systematic approach for prioritizing sub-

unit vaccine candidates using accepted pre-clinical criteria.

6. Pursue multi-antigen, multi-stage, and attenuated whole-parasite vaccine approaches.

Key Capacities7. Establish readily accessible formulation and scale-up

process development capacity for malaria vaccines.8. Build and broaden good clinical practice (GCP) clinical

trial capacity in Africa and other malaria-endemic regions to accommodate the growing number of trials required for malaria vaccine development.

Policy and Commercialization9. Establish and maintain country-level dialogues to

facilitate decision-making on malaria vaccine policy.10. Secure sustainable financing for future procurement

of vaccines.11. Develop novel regulatory strategies to expedite

approval while ensuring safety.

Case Study:Malaria Vaccine

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Technology Roadmap for the Fluid Power Industry

• The purpose is to provide companies, universities, governments, and other research providers and funders with an industry wide consensus regarding the research and development needs of the fluid power industry.

• It charts a research and technology development agenda for the next ten years to realize industry elevating advancements in mobile hydraulics, industrial hydraulics, and pneumatics.

• These advancements will help the industry:

–Meet the future needs of fluid power customers;

–Expand fluid power into new customer markets; and

–Attract the best and brightest young engineers to fluid power.

• This Roadmap also describes an action plan of research investments and technology developments needed to achieve those advancements.

2009 Edition

Roadmapping Process• National Center for Manufacturing Sciences

(NCMS) and the Albright Strategy Group facilitated.

– NCMS is a leader in developing collaborative partnerships to promote research & development and the advancement of manufacturing.

• Two 2 ½ day facilitated sessions at NCMS Headquarters, Ann Arbor, MI

• Participating organizations – 20 fluid power industry participants (NFPA members)– The Center for Compact and Efficient Fluid Power

(CCEFP) • Created technology roadmaps for

– Hydraulics (Industrial & Mobile)– Pneumatics

Case Study:Fluid Power

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Fluid Power Technology Roadmap FrameworkCase Study:Fluid Power

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Roadmapping: Industry Involvement

Benefits from the Fluid Power roadmapping engagement:• Participation from a wide cross-section of the industry.• Active sharing of (pre-competitive) ideas• Developed a shared understanding of competitive threats to the

industry.• Developed a common set of industry objectives.• A concise communication tools to describe the industry future:

– To industry participants– To suppliers– To customers

• Defined several potential industry initiatives:– New technologies– Standards development

• Many discussions among participants of their common interests.

Case Study:Fluid Power

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Some Healthcare RoadmapsRoadmap Date Sponsoring Organization

• A Research Roadmap for Medical and Healthcare Robotics

2008 Computing Community Consortium (CCC), part of the Computing Research Association (CRA), through a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Roadmap Robotics for Healthcare 2008 TNO Innovation Policy Group (main contractor), Vilans, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft-ISI, VTT and EuroAct

• The Development of an Interoperable Roadmap for Medical Devices

2005 (?) Kaiser Permanente

• A Shared Roadmap and Vision for Health IT

2009 Healthcare Information Technology (CCHIT), US Healthcare Information Technology Standards Panel (HITSP), American College of Physicians (ACP), National Committee for QualityAssurance (NCQA), National eHealth Collaborative (NeHC)

• Remote Health Services 2006 (?) Monitor Group

• GS1 Healthcare Roadmap 2009 GS1 Healthcare, the global Healthcare user group, Brussels

• Knowing What Works In Health Care: A Roadmap For The Nation

2008 Committee on Reviewing Evidence to Identify Highly Effective Clinical Services, Board on Health Care Services, INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

• Roadmap for Implementing Value Driven Healthcare in the Traditional Medicare Fee-for-Service Program

? US Dept of Health and Human Services

• Lean Hospital Roadmap ? Leonardo Group Americas LLC

• ISPOR Global Health Systems Road Map

? International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research

• ASEAN Roadmap for Integration of the Healthcare Sector

? USAID, ASEAN, Nathan Assoc

• High Performance Healthcare Buildings: A Roadmap to Improved Energy Efficiency

2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Discussion

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Roadmapping in Healthcare

Some Observations• Characteristics unique to Healthcare:

– Customer Driver Segmentation• Patient – Caregiver – Health Care Professional – Payer – Regulator

– Intellectual property is a cornerstone of competitive strategy.– Long development cycles (driven by regulatory process)– Performance and reliability are often the most important customer or

product driver.– Cost control is generally a low priority– Product drivers or features may be expressed as claims– Technology adoption (the technology roadmap) is managed/gated by

clinical trials and regulatory approval.

• Healthcare shares with other industries:– Need for open innovation approaches– Technology disruption:

• Electronic control replacing mechanical devices • Pharma solutions replacing/augmenting devices.

Discussion

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Roadmapping:

Discipline & Focus

Learning & Communications

The Albright Strategy GroupRoadmaps and Roadmapping

Technology FuturesStrategy

www.albrightstrategy.com