Riverside CountyClass of 2009 Dropout and

Graduation RatesShannon Wells, PhD

Terminology• Lost Transfer

– District indicated student moving to another CA public school, but the state did not find a matching SSID in another school/district

• Considered a Dropout

• Dropout Re-Enrolled– District indicated student left with a dropout code

but state found the same SSID in another school/district

• Reduces dropout count

Grade 9-12 Lost Transfers 2008 2009 Difference Lost Transfers % Change Lost

TransfersAlvord Unified 12 87 75 625%Banning Unified 26 19 -7 -27%Beaumont Unified 4 5 1

25%Coachella Valley Unified 36 104 68

189%Corona-Norco Unified 113 874 761

673%Desert Sands Unified 70 144 74

106%Hemet Unified 15 108 93 620%Jurupa Unified 60 24 -36 -60%Lake Elsinore Unified 22 70 48

218%Moreno Valley Unified 143 274 131

92%Murrieta Valley Unified 8 154 146

1825%Nuview Union 2 0 -2 -100%Palm Springs Unified 66 78 12

18%Palo Verde Unified 6 19 13

217%Perris Union High 32 89 57

178%Riverside Unified 27 522 495 1833%San Jacinto Unified 8 43 35

438%Temecula Valley Unified 9 49 40

444%Val Verde Unified 86 124 38

44%County Total: 1,681 3,801 2,120 126%

Statewide 23,576 45,652 22,076 94%

9-12 Dropouts Reenroll2008 2009 Difference Reenroll

Alvord Unified 0 12 12

Banning Unified 0 1 1

Beaumont Unified 1 5 4

Coachella Valley Unified 0 8 8

Corona-Norco Unified 23 45 22

Desert Sands Unified 0 2 2

Hemet Unified 2 273 271

Jurupa Unified 1 7 6

Lake Elsinore Unified 0 33 33

Moreno Valley Unified 8 152 144

Murrieta Valley Unified 63 63 0

Nuview Union 0 0 0

Palm Springs Unified 0 14 14

Palo Verde Unified 4 19 15

Perris Union High 0 34 34

Riverside Unified 1 106 105

San Jacinto Unified 0 17 17

Temecula Valley Unified 0 9 9

Val Verde Unified 5 82 77

County Total: 94 905 811

Statewide 3,525 20,721 17,196

Dropout Data

• Riverside County increased Lost Transfers by 126%• Statewide Lost Transfers increased by 94%• Above suggests possible data issue

– Possible miscoding/misunderstanding by districts– CALPADS incorrect interpretation of data

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Exit Codes: Graduates, Completers, Non-Dropouts

Graduate• 100: Graduated from HS• 120: Special Ed Certificate

of completion

Completer

• 250: Adult Ed HS Diploma• 320: GED• 330: Passed CHSPE

Non-Dropout • E125: Exited SPED receiving certificate of completion• E130: Died• T160: Transferred to CA public school*• T165: Transferred to CA public school discipline*• T167: Transferred to CA Alt Ed Program – non discipline*• T180: Transferred to private school• T200: Transferred to school outside CA• T240: Moved to another country• T260: Left to enroll in adult ed program• T280: Left, enrolled in college• T310: Left entered health care facility• T370: Entered institution not primarily academic (military, job

corps, justice system, etc.) working towards diploma• E410: Withdrew medical reasons• N470: Pre-enrolled, never attended• 480 Promoted (matriculated)• E490: Exited summer school or intersession, but will return

*Can turn into Lost Transfers

Exit Codes: Dropouts• 104: Completed all graduation requirements, but did not pass CAHSEE;

and does not have an IEP or 504 Plan• E140: Withdrew and no evidence student is in an academic program• T270: Student left to enroll in Adult Ed, then dropped out• E300: Expelled and referred to another ed service, but did not show up• 360: Completed grade 12 without completing graduation requirement• T380: Entered institution not primarily academic (military, job corps,

justice system, etc.) and not working towards high school diploma• E400: Reason unknown• N420: Student completed an academic year and did not return to school• T460: Withdrew to enter home school setting, not affiliated with a school

system• Dropout codes should be verified by site and district administration

before used

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2008 and 2009 Graduation Rates and 2010 AYP Target

AYP Targets: 90% or

201090-Grad09/10

201190-Grad10/9

201290-Grad11/8

District 2008 2009

Difference 2008 to

2009

2010 AYP

Target

Difference Grad Rate and AYP Target

NUVIEW UNION 87.5 98.4 10.9 87.75 10.65TEMECULA VALLEY UNIFIED 92.9 92.8 -0.1 92.61 0.19MURRIETA VALLEY UNIFIED 90.8 91.9 1.1 90.72 1.18CORONA-NORCO UNIFIED 93.7 91.8 -1.9 93.33 -1.53BEAUMONT UNIFIED 85.2 87.9 2.7 85.68 2.22DESERT SANDS UNIFIED 83 84.3 1.3 83.7 0.6RIVERSIDE UNIFIED 86.2 83.1 -3.1 86.58 -3.48LAKE ELSINORE UNIFIED 88.7 83 -5.7 88.83 -5.83HEMET UNIFIED 80.4 83 2.6 81.36 1.64ALVORD UNIFIED 84.4 82.6 -1.8 84.96 -2.36SAN JACINTO UNIFIED 81.3 81.7 0.4 82.17 -0.47JURUPA UNIFIED 74.3 79.3 5 75.87 3.43PALM SPRINGS UNIFIED 76.5 78.3 1.8 77.85 0.45VAL VERDE UNIFIED 74.9 77.5 2.6 76.41 1.09BANNING UNIFIED 83.3 75.7 -7.6 83.97 -8.27PERRIS UNION HIGH 77.8 74.4 -3.4 79.02 -4.62PALO VERDE UNIFIED 75.8 72 -3.8 77.22 -5.22COACHELLA VALLEY UNIFIED 77.6 70.2 -7.4 78.84 -8.64MORENO VALLEY UNIFIED 64.9 67.6 2.7 67.41 0.19MENIFEE UNION ELEMENTARY 100 59.1 -40.9COUNTY TOTAL: 80.5 80 -0.5STATE TOTAL: 80.2 78.6 -1.6 81.18 -2.58

Important Dates: 2010 Graduation/Dropout*

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• February 4: Certify CALPADS– March 11: Preview counts of enrollment, dropout, and

graduates

• February 14-April 22: Amendment window– Make corrections to CALPADS data– Certify by April 22

• May 19: Preview new graduation/dropout rates• May 23: Public release of graduation/dropout

*Used for 2011 AYP

Red Flags to ResearchLost Transfers: Especially if increases in 2009 were noticed•Obtain list of Lost Transfer students

– CALPADS• Available in State View reports• Research at site and district level to locate student or determine if

student left California or the U.S.• Visit Neighbors• Talk to teachers and friends• If moved to another CA public school, verify SSID• If moved out of the country, state, or to private school, use

appropriate exit codes

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Red Flags to Research Cont.Students marked as dropouts• Obtain a list of all students with dropout exit codes

– CALPADS– District IT department (submitted to CALPADS)

• Things to look for– SWD not passing CAHSEE, marked as not passing CAHSEE (dropout)

rather than completed– Students enrolled in Adult Ed programs, but reported to CALPADS as a

dropout– Students with inconsistent exit codes from SIS to CALPADS

• Students graduated, yet marked as a dropout

– Students left the country, state, or entered private school

DROPOUT RESEARCHWho drops out and how can it be prevented?

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Who is At-Risk of Dropping Out?

• Demographics• Family/Personal Background• Parental Involvement• Academic History• Behavioral Indicators• Teacher Perceptions

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Dropout Risk Factors• Socio-economic status and per-pupil spending

– Socio-economic status is the best predictor– Lower ADA results in higher drop-out rates

• Grade retention • Low grade point average, attendance, and

credit deficiencies• Negative school climate and school size

Grade Retention and Dropout• Retaining students is often done without schools understanding the

potential long-term effects of such practices• Retention as a remediation strategy does not improve school performance

– Negatively related to almost all academic and social/behavioral indicators

• 2nd greatest predictor of dropout– 70% retained students dropout (27% not retained)– Retention one grade level increased dropout risk by 40-50%

• 2 grades increases by 90%

– Retention in later grade levels increases risk even higher

• Researchers suggest that it would be difficult to find another educational practice in which all the evidence is indisputably negative

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Protective Factors

• Relationships with teachers • Relevant/important coursework• Participation in extracurricular activities

– Especially pronounced for at-risk students– More extracurricular activities increased likelihood

of graduating– Provide a gateway into school social networks and

promote individual interests, achievements, and goals

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Dropout Risk Factors that Schools Can Control/Monitor

• Grade retention policies and practices• Grades and courses

– Poor grades– Course-taking patterns– Course offerings

• Rate of attendance • School climate

– Negative attitudes and beliefs about school

• Policies that encourage dropout– Raising academic standards without providing supports, tracking students, and frequent

use of suspension– Fair and consistent discipline policies

• School connectedness– Caring/supportive adult– Alienation and participation in school/extracurricular activities

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Questions?Shannon@KeyDataSys.com

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