richard cuerden, chief scientist and research director, transport research laboratory (trl)

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The potential for vehicle safety standards to prevent deaths and injuries in Latin AmericaAn assessment of the societal and economic impact of inaction

Authors: C. Wallbank, K. McRae-McKee, L. Durrell & D. Hynd

Presented by: Richard Cuerden27 October 2016

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

Copyright 2016 TRL LtdAbout TRLBackgroundMethodResultsConclusionsRecommendationsAcknowledgments2The potential for vehicle safety standards to prevent deaths and injuries in Latin America

An assessment of the societal and economic impact of inaction

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

The Future Of TransportIn the next 3-5 years, the focus will be on delivering transport & mobility solutions that are:

SafeReliableEfficientAccessibleEnvironmentally sound

For all those who use or operate the transport and mobility network. 3

Our MissionTo challenge and influence our chosen markets, driving sustained reductions in:

Fatalities & serious injuriesCost inefficienciesHarmful emissionsBarriers to inclusive mobilityUnforeseen delays

enabling world-class transport and mobility solutions that underpin the needs of tomorrows economy and society.

Creating the future of transport and mobility, using evidence-based solutions and innovative thinking

About TRL

Copyright 2016 TRL LtdThe future of transport.4Background

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO):over 1.25 million people died due to road collisions in 2013up to 50 million more people were seriously injured> 90% road casualties occur in low- and middle-income countriesEconomic growth and increasing motorisation is predicted to cause more road casualties, particularly in emerging economiesThe Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) was adopted by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 2010 in response to this predicted riseThe UN Member States have adopted a target to halve road traffic deaths and injuries by 2020 (relative to 2010)part of the Global Goals for Sustainable Development (UN 2016)

Copyright 2016 TRL LtdThe Global Plan for the Decade of Action is organised around the 5 pillars of the Safe System approach

Safer vehicles: Only 40 countries worldwide apply all of the most important (minimum) vehicle safety standards:Approved seat belts and anchorages for all seating positions (UN Regulations 14 and 16)Occupant protection in frontal collision (UN Regulation 94)Occupant protection in side or lateral collisions (UN Regulation 95)Pedestrian protection (GTR 9; UN Regulation 127) Electronic Stability Control (ESC) (GTR 8; UN Regulation 13H)5BackgroundRoad Safety ManagementSafer Roads and MobilitySafer VehiclesSafer Road UsersPost-Crash Response

Copyright 2016 TRL LtdQuantify how many car user fatalities and serious injuries could be prevented in Argentina, Chile and Mexico if:Minimum secondary safety measures (UN Regulations 14, 16, 94 and 95) were adoptedThe New Car Assessment Programme for Latin America and the Caribbean (Latin NCAP) stimulates further vehicle improvementsIncorporate the results from the Brazil study (Cuerden et al. 2015; TRL PPR766)Quantify the economic burden for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico associated with not adopting minimum car secondary safety standards 6Aims of the study

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd73Predict the benefits of car secondary in the emerging markets:Estimate the number of fatalities that would be saved in the emerging markets if the secondary safety benefits seen in GB are experienced (based on the likely fleet growth and baseline year, from 2016 to 2030)4Monetise the preventable casualties: The human life savings are quantified economically using the Value of Statistical Life method associated with GDP (Bhalla et al. 2013)2Establish a baseline year in the emerging markets: Identify the equivalent car secondary safety age (year) in the current vehicle fleet in the emerging markets compared to the EU (GB)1Quantify the effectiveness of car secondary safety in GB: Assess the reduction in car user fatalities due to car secondary safetyMethod

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd8Results 1. Car secondary safety in GBNon built up roadsBuilt up roads

Modelled fatality proportion by registration year for car drivers (males 25-59, small family cars, 2013)Data from GB is used to quantify how many car users would have been killed if secondary safety had not improved (EU Regulation + Euro NCAP)

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd9

(Vehicle Manufacturers)

Vehicle design and casualty preventionResults 2. Establish a baseline year

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd10Results 2. Establish a baseline yearEURO NCAP (1997 test)Latin NCAP (2010 test)

3Examples of car residual crush damage comparisons and classifications

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Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd11Results 2. Establish a baseline yearBaseline year for 2015Actual (estimated) casualty numbersEstimated casualty numbers if secondary safety had not improvedEstimated reduction in casualties due to secondary safety improvements2002 (Argentina)11,96112,6106502003 (Chile)11,07811,7907122000 (Mexico)13,46914,4199501995 (Alternative baseline)16,27518,9512,676

Based on an engineering visual assessment of the performance of cars in Latin and Euro NCAP, frontal impacts only, we considered:Structural integrity of the passenger compartment at the A-pillar and sillDegree of deformation of the A-pillar and/or sillStability of the steering columnProvision of front airbags Stability of airbag contact (for the driver)

Conservative assumptions for Baseline years:Many cars not subject to side impact testDifferent safety features and technologies e.g. no side curtain airbags

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd12Results 2. Establish a baseline yearBaseline year for 2015Actual (estimated) casualty numbersEstimated casualty numbers if secondary safety had not improvedEstimated reduction in casualties due to secondary safety improvementsProportional casualty saving over 15 years assuming vehicle secondary safety remained at baseline year2002 (Argentina)11,96112,6106505.2%2003 (Chile)11,07811,7907126.0%2000 (Mexico)13,46914,4199506.6%1995 (Alternative baseline)16,27518,9512,67614.1%

Estimated car driver fatality numbers over a 15 year period in GB if secondary safety had remained at level of the baseline year

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd13Results 3. Predicting the benefitsCar occupant fatality rate (per million registered cars) for Chile, 2005-2014)

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

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The possible baseline scenarios for car registration growth in Chile from 2015 to 2030 have been devised as:The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at the current rate: an average annual rate of 5.2% relative to 2014The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at an average annual rate of 0.9% relative to 2014The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at an average annual rate of 6.0% relative to 2014The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly as in scenario (A), but also encompasses a gradual move from motorcycles to cars. This is equivalent to an annual average increase of 5.7%

14Results 3. Predicting the benefits

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd15Results 3. Predicting the benefits

Predicted growth in registered cars (Chile)Motorisation rate(B) Annual rate of 0.9%

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

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16Results 3. Predicting the benefits

Predicted fatalities (Chile) based on modelled fleet growth and no car secondary safety improvements (B) Annual rate of 0.9%(C) Annual rate of 6.0%

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

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17Results 3. Predicting the benefitsScenarioNumber of fatalities predicted without vehicle safety developmentsSimilar timescaleQuicker timescaleSaving in fatalitiesProportional savingSaving in fatalitiesProportional savingA8,3125696.8%7118.6%B6,3133946.2%4927.8%C8,6806016.9%7528.7%D8,5425896.9%7378.6%

Potential fatality savings in Chile between 2016 and 2030 due to secondary safety developments from the baseline of 2003 If minimum vehicle standards were applied now (2016), by 2030 we predict: Between 390 and 750 fatalities in Chile would be prevented (2003 baseline)Between 690 and 1,320 fatalities in Chile would be prevented (1995 baseline)

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

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If minimum vehicle standards were applied now (2016), by 2030 we predict that the following fatalities could be saved: Between 570 and 1,400 fatalities in ArgentinaBetween 390 and 750 fatalities in Chile Between 900 and 3,500 fatalities in MexicoBetween 12,000 and 34,000 fatalities in Brazil (Cuerden et al. 2015)Between 14,000 and 40,000 car occupant fatalities could be prevented across the Latin American regionThe number of killed or seriously injured car user casualties prevented by improvements to secondary safety could be in the region of 160,000 to 440,000

18Results 3. Predicting the benefits

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd19Results 4. Monetise the preventable casualtiesGDP per capita (2014)(current USD)(World Bank Group, 2016a)Economic loss of one death due to traffic collision(current USD, thousands)Economic loss of one serious injury due to traffic collision(current USD, thousands)Argentina12,509.5876 1,721213Chile14,528.31,017 1,999247Mexico10,325.6723 1,421176Brazil11,726.8821 1,614199UK46,297.03,241 6,370787

Economic loss of death and serious injury using VSL method

Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd20Results 4. Monetise the preventable casualtiesPotential economic savings between 2016 and 2030 due to secondary safety improvementsCar occupant fatalities preventedEconomic saving as a result of the fatalities prevented (current USD, millions)Argentina570 - 1,400500 - 2,500Chile