rewired for success is the industry sustainable going forward? · electronics retail automotive...
TRANSCRIPT
August 3, 2017
Rewired for Success—Is the Industry Sustainable Going Forward?Al Koch, Vice Chairman, AlixPartners LLP
Center for Automotive Research (CAR) Management Briefing Seminars
2
Investment and cash demands in auto: extensive—and growing
Ongoing requirements
(~10% of sales)
• Maintenance capital
• Expansion capital
• R&D capital
Cycle-related requirements
(based on historical patterns)
• Sales slowdown-related
(funding payables, bailing out
troubled suppliers, sharing
stranded fixed costs, etc.)
• Capacity-related
(overinvesting due to
uncertainty over future
volumes)
Incremental requirements
(for the conversion to “CASE”—
connected, autonomous, shared,
electric)
• Partnerships
• M&A
• Etc.
How much capital is enough?
3
Automotive ROICs pale in comparison to high-tech’s
1. Capital IQ’s Capex calculation (used here) is net of depreciation; R&D does not include acquisitions and, in some cases, double counts Capex where capitalizedSource: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Capital IQ, Compustat, New York Stern Aswath Damodaran, and AlixPartners analysis
Return on invested capital (2016) Capex + R&D/sales1 (2016)
30%
18%
16%16%
13%11%
8%6%
4%
-7%
11%
36%32%
24%
16%
-2%
Trucking
Metals & MiningAutomakers
Oil/Gas (Integrated)Oil/Gas (Production)
Computer ServicesAerospace/Defense
Information Services
ElectronicsRetail Automotive
RailroadTelecom Equipment
Chemical (Diversified)Semiconductor Equip
Air TransportComputers/Peripherals
9%2%3%
6%11%
1%3%
9%8%
3%5%
7%5%5%5%4%
12%
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Why it’s important to focus on ROIC, not just profitsor sales
1. See ‘Exploring Links Among Long-Termism Activist Behavior and Shareholder Return’ from S&P Global Market Intelligence Research April 28,2016; ‘Why You Should Pay Attention to Companies’ Three-Year Average Return on Invested Capital, by David Trainer in Forbes Magazine June 7, 2017 and ‘The Sustainability of Growth vs Return on Invested Capital’ by Saul Stannard-Stockton in Intrinsic Investing Sept. 21, 2016
• ROIC is a principal driver of stock price1
• Low ROIC, especially in low-growth capital-intensive industries, typically generates
laggard shareholder returns:
• ROIC considerations for “CASE” investments:
− The “3 P’s”: Participate, Partner or Purchase
− The key: Having a strategy
ROIC Google Apple
General
Electric Bosch Ford
General
Motors
2016 14.2% 19.9% 3.9% 12.7% 2.7% 5.2%
2012-16 Avg. 14.1% 26.8% 3.4% 12.7% 4.0% 8.4%
5
The proof is in the pudding: Stock performance for GM and Ford, vs. Apple and Google
Relative stock-price comparison
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015 12/31/2016
General Motors Ford Motor Apple GoogleSource: CapitalIQ
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Source: Maritz, AlixPartners analysis
Customer satisfaction: Built-in nav systems
A “CASE” challenge: Tesla’s over-the-air upgrades and iPad-like functions—unmatched since 2012
Customer satisfaction: Downloaded apps
Com
ple
tesatisfa
ction
Com
ple
tesatisfa
ction
2013 2014 2015 2016
30%
70%
80%
90%
0%
60%
40%
50%
Chrysler Nissan BMWHondaGM ToyotaFord Mercedes Tesla
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2013 2014 2015 2016
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AlixPartners’ finding: More than 50 “name” companies are now working on autonomous vehicles or systems
8
Example of how fast “CASE” can change: Car-sharing stagnating; ride-sharing up (per AlixPartners survey)
Questions: “In the next 12 months, how do you think your use of car-sharing will compare to your use now?” “In the next 12 months, how do you think your use of ride share will compare to your use now?”Source: AlixPartners consumer survey May 2017
Intended usage in next 12 months vs. today (%); US consumers
Car-sharing (Zipcar, Car2Go, etc.) Ride-sharing (Uber, Lyft, etc.)
17
53
1614
More than today
+1 pt.
Do not use now and will not
use in the next year
Less than today
About the same as today
Net
expected
increase
in usage
24
67
54+18 pts.
More than today
About the same as today
Less than today
Do not use now and will not
use in the next year
Net
expected
increase
in usage
9
Could “NIH” (not-invented-here) sabotage ROIC?
AlixPartners’ finding: 294 “CASE” partnerships by OEMS, including:
• Ford: 15 (Ford produces approximately 7% of world’s vehicles)
• GM: 11 (approximately 8% of world’s vehicles)
• Volkswagen: 15 (approximately 11% of the world’s vehicles)
• BMW: 32 (approximately 3% of world’s vehicles)
Efficient use of capital suggests that:
• The industry should consider making greater use of tech companies where their
technology know-how can be an advantage
• Keep ROIC top of mind--including developing “asset-light” approaches
10
Average spending already equals half of available cash; upcoming “CASE Bump” likely to strain balance sheets
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
$10B
$30B
$25B
$20B
$0B
$5B
$15B
$11B
$7B
$4B
$1B
2007
$12B
$7B
$4B
$1B$0B
2014
$10B
$6B
$3B
2013
$12B
$7B
$4B
$1B
$9B
2012
$9B
$6B
$3B
2011
$7B
$5B
$2B
2010
$5B
2016
$12B
$3B
$4B
$1B
2015
$11B
$7B
$3B$0B
2009
$8B
$5B
$3B
Sp
en
din
g a
s %
of A
vaila
ble
Cash
2008
Sp
en
din
g
$8B
CapEx SpendR&D
Tooling Costs (CAPEX + Tooling) as % of Cash Avail.
Average Capex + R&D and Tooling Spending for Top 20 Global Automakers
The “CASE Bump”
Note: Tooling costs are estimated at ~15% of annual R&D spend per OEMSource: Capital IQ, AlixPartners analysis
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Returning to: “Is the industry’s capital adequate?”
“Yes,” if:
• ROIC is always, always kept in mind,
• ROIC improves significantly, and
• “NIH” doesn’t get in the way of business objectivity
Otherwise, the answer may be…
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"Those who cannot
remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.“GEORGE SANTAYANA, PHILOSOPHER
(1863-1952)
©2017 AlixPartners, LLP.