retirement risks
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Retirement Risks
Retirement RisksEmotional Risk
Retirement Risks
Longevity Risk – Health Care Risk
Emotional Risk
Retirement Risks
Inflation Risk
Longevity Risk – Health Care Risk
Emotional Risk
Retirement Risks
Inflation Risk
Longevity Risk – Health Care Risk
Sequence of Returns - Luck
Emotional Risk
The Anxiety of Investing
What if you outlive your
money?
Emotional Risk
Emotional Risk
Jul-
97S
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Sep
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Oct
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Dec
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Feb
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May
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Jul-
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-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
The ins & outs of market emotionsN
et C
ash
Flo
w (
$Mill
ion
s)
MS
CI
Wor
ld S
tock
In
dex
Max. opportunityoutflow = $1.1 Billion
Point of max. riskInflow = $9.4 Billion
Emotional Risk
Jul-
97S
ep-9
7N
ov-9
7D
ec-9
7F
eb-9
8A
pr-
98M
ay-9
8Ju
l-98
Sep
-98
Oct
-98
Dec
-98
Feb
-99
Mar
-99
May
-99
Jul-
99A
ug-
99O
ct-9
9D
ec-9
9Ja
n-0
0M
ar-0
0M
ay-0
0Ju
n-0
0A
ug-
00O
ct-0
0N
ov-0
0Ja
n-0
1M
ar-0
1A
pr-
01Ju
n-0
1A
ug-
01S
ep-0
1N
ov-0
1D
ec-0
1
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
The ins & outs of market emotionsN
et C
ash
Flo
w (
$Mill
ion
s)
MS
CI
Wor
ld S
tock
In
dex
Max. opportunityoutflow = $1.1 Billion
Point of max. riskInflow = $9.4 Billion
Emotional Risk
The average investor gets average results because they react emotionally.
Time in the market is more profitable than timing the market.
1901 1973 TODAY0
20
40
60
80
100
48.2
69.382
51
76.385
MaleFemale
Our population is aging
· Source: Statistics Canada
Longevity Risk
Life Expectancy
1901 1973 TODAY0
20
40
60
80
100
48.2
69.382
51
76.385
MaleFemale
Our population is aging
· Source: Statistics Canada
Longevity Risk
Life Expectancy
Guess What This Will Look Like In 30 Years
Longevity Risk
Longevity Risk
Planning for retirement to last well into your 90s is a necessity. Savings must continue to grow and individuals need to be prepared to support their lifestyles for 25 years or more.
The Cost of Living – Inflation Risk
YearInflation
RateCost of
Item YearInflation
RateCost of
Item1 2% $102.00 1 4% $104.00 5 2% $110.41 5 4% $121.67
10 2% $121.90 10 4% $148.02 15 2% $134.59 15 4% $180.09 20 2% $148.59 20 4% $219.11 25 2% $164.06 25 4% $266.58
INITIAL INVESTMENT $100,000A B
Starting at Age 50 Year 1 -13.00% Year 3Year 2 7.0% Year 2Year 3 27.0% Year 1
Repeating Repeating
INVESTOR A INVESTOR B INVESTOR CINVESTMENT YEAR-END INVESTMENT YEAR-END
AGE RETURN VALUE AGE RETURN VALUE51 -13% 87,000 51 27% 127,00052 7% 93,090 52 7% 135,89053 27% 118,224 53 -13% 118,22454 -13% 102,855 54 27% 150,14555 7% 110,055 55 7% 160,65556 27% 139,770 56 -13% 139,77057 -13% 121,600 57 27% 177,50858 7% 130,112 58 7% 189,93359 27% 165,242 59 -13% 165,24260 -13% 143,760 60 27% 209,85761 7% 153,824 61 7% 224,54762 27% 195,356 62 -13% 195,35663 -13% 169,960 63 27% 248,10264 7% 181,857 64 7% 265,46965 27% 230,958 65 -13% 230,958
MONEY INVESTED $100,000 MONEY INVESTED $100,000NET PROFIT 130,958 NET PROFIT 130,958
RETURN PER $ $1.31 RETURN PER $ $1.31COST PER $ $0.764 COST PER $ $0.764
INTEREST RATE
Sequence of Returns
No Risk Without Withdrawals
A Investor B
Initial Investment $100,000 27% Year 1 -13%Age 65 7% Year 2 7%
Withdrawal Rate 9.00% of Initial Amount -13% Year 3 27%Repeating Repeating
Investor A Investor BAttained Investment Annual Year End Attained Investment Annual Year End
Age Return Withdrawal Value Age Return Withdrawal Value65 27% $9,000 $115,570 65 -13% $9,000 $79,170 66 7% $9,000 $114,030 66 7% $9,000 $75,082 67 -13% $9,000 $91,376 67 27% $9,000 $83,924 68 27% $9,000 $104,618 68 -13% $9,000 $65,184 69 7% $9,000 $102,311 69 7% $9,000 $60,117 70 -13% $9,000 $81,180 70 27% $9,000 $64,918 71 27% $9,000 $91,669 71 -13% $9,000 $48,649 72 7% $9,000 $88,456 72 7% $9,000 $42,424 73 -13% $9,000 $69,127 73 27% $9,000 $42,449 74 27% $9,000 $76,361 74 -13% $9,000 $29,101 75 7% $9,000 $72,076 75 7% $9,000 $21,508 76 -13% $9,000 $54,876 76 27% $9,000 $15,885 77 27% $9,000 $58,263 77 -13% $9,000 $5,990 78 7% $9,000 $52,711 78 7% $5,990 $0 79 -13% $9,000 $38,029 79 27% $0 $0 80 27% $9,000 $36,866 80 -13% $0 $0 81 7% $9,000 $29,817 81 7% $0 $0 82 -13% $9,000 $18,111 82 27% $0 $0 83 27% $9,000 $11,571 83 -13% $0 $0 84 7% $9,000 $2,751 84 7% $0 $0 85 -13% $2,751 $0 85 27% $0 $0 86 27% $0 $0 86 -13% $0 $0
$182,751 Total Received $122,990
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
May 27, 2011RECYCLING DAY 3
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
May 27, 2011RECYCLING DAY 3
You will hopefully be retired for at least 20 to 30 years. Think back 30 years to food and gas prices, interest rates, market levelsand the demographics of the Canadian population for an idea of how much everything can change during that period. As mostadvisers spent their careers helping people accumulate money for retirement, there has traditionally been a lack of training andexperience with designing income plans.
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
May 27, 2011RECYCLING DAY 3
You will hopefully be retired for at least 20 to 30 years. Think back 30 years to food and gas prices, interest rates, market levelsand the demographics of the Canadian population for an idea of how much everything can change during that period. As mostadvisers spent their careers helping people accumulate money for retirement, there has traditionally been a lack of training andexperience with designing income plans.
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
To give you a vivid example of why this is so important, let's look at someone who retired at the end of 1962 and withdrew a constant seven per cent from their investments, which were a balanced portfolio of 60 per cent stocks and 40 per cent bonds. Thirty years later, that person had run out of money.
May 27, 2011RECYCLING DAY 3
You will hopefully be retired for at least 20 to 30 years. Think back 30 years to food and gas prices, interest rates, market levelsand the demographics of the Canadian population for an idea of how much everything can change during that period. As mostadvisers spent their careers helping people accumulate money for retirement, there has traditionally been a lack of training andexperience with designing income plans.
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
To give you a vivid example of why this is so important, let's look at someone who retired at the end of 1962 and withdrew a constant seven per cent from their investments, which were a balanced portfolio of 60 per cent stocks and 40 per cent bonds. Thirty years later, that person had run out of money.
However, if that same person had retired at the end of 1963 with the same amount of money, they would still have almost all theircapital left 30 years later.
May 27, 2011RECYCLING DAY 3
You will hopefully be retired for at least 20 to 30 years. Think back 30 years to food and gas prices, interest rates, market levelsand the demographics of the Canadian population for an idea of how much everything can change during that period. As mostadvisers spent their careers helping people accumulate money for retirement, there has traditionally been a lack of training andexperience with designing income plans.
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
To give you a vivid example of why this is so important, let's look at someone who retired at the end of 1962 and withdrew a constant seven per cent from their investments, which were a balanced portfolio of 60 per cent stocks and 40 per cent bonds. Thirty years later, that person had run out of money.
However, if that same person had retired at the end of 1963 with the same amount of money, they would still have almost all theircapital left 30 years later.
This brings us to concept of: Luck. The most comprehensive and sophisticated analysis of data from the last 150 years concluded that the No. 1 determinant of financial success in retirement is luck, and more specifically, the timing of the retirement.
May 27, 2011RECYCLING DAY 3
You will hopefully be retired for at least 20 to 30 years. Think back 30 years to food and gas prices, interest rates, market levelsand the demographics of the Canadian population for an idea of how much everything can change during that period. As mostadvisers spent their careers helping people accumulate money for retirement, there has traditionally been a lack of training andexperience with designing income plans.
Sequence of Returns – Big Risk with Withdrawals
To give you a vivid example of why this is so important, let's look at someone who retired at the end of 1962 and withdrew a constant seven per cent from their investments, which were a balanced portfolio of 60 per cent stocks and 40 per cent bonds. Thirty years later, that person had run out of money.
However, if that same person had retired at the end of 1963 with the same amount of money, they would still have almost all theircapital left 30 years later.
This brings us to concept of: Luck. The most comprehensive and sophisticated analysis of data from the last 150 years concluded that the No. 1 determinant of financial success in retirement is luck, and more specifically, the timing of the retirement.
Proper retirement planning is about eliminating the effects of luck and the potential ill effects of bad timing. It's also about measuring progress regularly throughout retirement and making adjustments as necessary.
· Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition May 27, 2011 B16
The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average
Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual
Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%
1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 15-Mar-14 16065.67 -3.08%
Count the Squares With Red Numbers
The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average
Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual
Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%
1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 15-Mar-14 16065.67 -3.08%
Count the Squares With Red Numbers
· 35 % are negative since inception
The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average
Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual
Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%
1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 15-Mar-14 16065.67 -3.08%
Count the Squares With Red Numbers
· 30 % are negative since 1945
· 35 % are negative since inception
The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average
Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual
Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%
1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 15-Mar-14 16065.67 -3.08%
Count the Squares With Red Numbers
· 29 % are negative since 1970
· 30 % are negative since 1945
· 35 % are negative since inception
The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average
Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual
Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%
1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 15-Mar-14 16065.67 -3.08%
Count the Squares With Red Numbers
· 40 % are negative since 2000
· 29 % are negative since 1970
· 30 % are negative since 1945
· 35 % are negative since inception
The History of a Stock MarketsDow Jones Industrial Average
Annual Return Since InceptionYEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual YEAR DJIA Annual
Return Return Return Return5/26/1896 40.94 1925 156.66 30.00% 1955 488.40 20.77% 1985 1546.67 27.66%
1896 40.45 -1.20% 1926 157.20 0.34% 1956 499.47 2.27% 1986 1895.95 22.58%1897 49.41 22.15% 1927 202.40 28.75% 1957 435.69 -12.77% 1987 1938.83 2.26%1898 60.52 22.49% 1928 300.00 48.22% 1958 583.65 33.96% 1988 2168.57 11.85%1899 66.08 9.19% 1929 248.48 -17.17% 1959 679.36 16.40% 1989 2753.20 26.96%1900 70.71 7.01% 1930 164.58 -33.77% 1960 615.89 -9.34% 1990 2633.66 -4.34%1901 64.56 -8.70% 1931 77.90 -52.67% 1961 731.14 18.71% 1991 3168.83 20.32%1902 64.29 -0.42% 1932 59.93 -23.07% 1962 652.10 -10.81% 1992 3301.11 4.17%1903 49.11 -23.61% 1933 99.90 66.69% 1963 762.95 17.00% 1993 3754.09 13.72%1904 69.61 41.74% 1934 104.04 4.14% 1964 874.13 14.57% 1994 3834.44 2.14%1905 96.20 38.20% 1935 144.13 38.53% 1965 969.26 10.88% 1995 5117.12 33.45%1906 94.35 -1.92% 1936 179.50 24.54% 1966 785.69 -18.94% 1996 6448.27 26.01%1907 58.75 -37.73% 1937 120.85 -32.67% 1967 905.11 15.20% 1997 7908.25 22.64%1908 86.15 46.64% 1938 154.76 28.06% 1968 943.75 4.27% 1998 9181.43 16.10%1909 99.05 14.97% 1939 150.24 -2.92% 1969 800.36 -15.19% 1999 11497.12 25.22%1910 81.36 -17.86% 1940 131.13 -12.72% 1970 838.92 4.82% 2000 10786.67 -6.18%1911 81.68 0.39% 1941 110.96 -15.38% 1971 890.20 6.11% 2001 10021.64 -7.09%1912 87.87 7.58% 1942 119.40 7.61% 1972 1020.02 14.58% 2002 8341.63 -16.76%1913 78.78 -10.34% 1943 135.89 13.81% 1973 850.86 -16.58% 2003 10453.90 25.32%1914 54.58 -30.72% 1944 152.32 12.09% 1974 616.24 -27.57% 2004 10783.01 3.15%1915 99.15 81.66% 1945 192.91 26.65% 1975 852.41 38.32% 2005 10717.50 -0.61%1916 95.00 -4.19% 1946 177.20 -8.14% 1976 1004.65 17.86% 2006 12463.15 16.29%1917 74.38 -21.71% 1947 181.16 2.23% 1977 831.17 -17.27% 2007 13264.82 6.43%1918 82.20 10.51% 1948 177.30 -2.13% 1978 805.01 -3.15% 2008 8776.39 -33.84%1919 107.23 30.45% 1949 200.13 12.88% 1979 838.74 4.19% 2009 10428.05 18.82%1920 71.95 -32.90% 1950 235.41 17.63% 1980 963.99 14.93% 2010 11577.51 11.02%1921 81.1 12.72% 1951 269.23 14.37% 1981 875.00 -9.23% 2011 12217.56 5.53%1922 98.73 21.74% 1952 291.90 8.42% 1982 1046.54 19.60% 2012 13104.14 7.26%1923 95.52 -3.25% 1953 280.90 -3.77% 1983 1258.64 20.27% 2013 16576.66 26.50%1924 120.51 26.16% 1954 404.39 43.96% 1984 1211.57 -3.74% 15-Mar-14 16065.67 -3.08%
Count the Squares With Red Numbers
· 40 % are negative since 2000
· 29 % are negative since 1970
· 30 % are negative since 1945
· 35 % are negative since inception
·There Will Be Some Bad Years
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
What Can Be Done About Them?
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
What Can Be Done About Them?
Do Some Risk Management
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
What Can Be Done About Them?
Do Some Risk Management
How Do You Manage These Risks?
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
What Can Be Done About Them?
Buy Some Guarantees
Do Some Risk Management
How Do You Manage These Risks?
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
What Can Be Done About Them?
Buy Some Guarantees
Click On Guaranteed Variable Investments
Do Some Risk Management
How Do You Manage These Risks?
Those Are The Major Retirement Risks
What Can Be Done About Them?
Buy Some Guarantees
Click On Guaranteed Variable Investments
Click On Income For Life
Do Some Risk Management
How Do You Manage These Risks?
DISCLAIMER
DISCLAIMERThe ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.
DISCLAIMERThe ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.I agree with them or know them to be true. You are welcome to question the concept or facts.
I Refer To My Work Here As Research. Others Might Call It Plagiarism.-Brian Penston
DISCLAIMERThe ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.I agree with them or know them to be true. You are welcome to question the concept or facts.
I Refer To My Work Here As Research. Others Might Call It Plagiarism.-Brian Penston
DISCLAIMER
Thank You!
The ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.I agree with them or know them to be true. You are welcome to question the concept or facts.
I Refer To My Work Here As Research. Others Might Call It Plagiarism.-Brian Penston
DISCLAIMER
Thank You!
The ideas and concepts presented her were not originally my ideas. They were collected by reading publications and attending presentations. I assume you don’t have time to invest/spend your time doing those things.I agree with them or know them to be true. You are welcome to question the concept or facts.
Brian Penston
