resources and options for adapting to climate variability and change

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  • Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

    Maria Janowiak, mjanowiak@fs.fed.usNorthern Institute of Applied Climate ScienceUS Forest Service

    mailto:mjanowiak@fs.fed.us

  • Desired Future

    TIME

    Climate-Driven Changes

  • Desired Future

    TIME

    Climate ChangeTrajectory

    ?

    Climate-Driven Changes

  • Desired Future

    TIME

    Climate ChangeTrajectory

    ?

    Climate-Driven Changes

    Increasing resources needed to maintain current direction

  • AdaptationAdaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change.

    Adaptation activities can build on and compliment

    existing sustainable management and

    conservation actions

    Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010

  • What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to

    cope with change and

    meet goals and objectives?

  • If you want a single answer for how to respond to climate change, its:

    It depends

    It depends on where you are working and what youre trying to achieve.

  • Adaptation Workbook Process

  • Adaptation Workbook Process

  • Adaptation Workbook Process

    Resource: Climate Change Assessments

  • Adaptation Workbook Process

    Resource: Climate Change Assessments

    Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches

  • Provides a menu to help producers translate broad concepts to specific, implementable tactics

    Shows your rationale for deciding on a specific action

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    STRATEGIES

    APROACHES

    TACTICS

    ACTION

  • How the menu is created:1. Review literature (30+)2. Collect adaptation

    actions of all types (~150)3. Organize by system,

    similarity, and scale4. Create description5. Review and repeat!

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

    Literature review to identify

    adaptation actions

    Organize adaptation actions into

    menu

  • Option

    Strategy

    Approach

    Tactic

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

  • Desired Future

    TIME

    Climate ChangeTrajectory

    ?

    Persistence or change?

  • Desired Future

    TIME

    Climate ChangeTrajectory

    ?

    Persistence or change?

  • Option

    Strategy

    Approach

    Tactic

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

    Manage for Persistence:Still be recognizable as being the same system

    Manage for Change:System fundamentally becomes something different

  • When you might emphasizePersistence (Same/Similar)

    High economic or social value associated with current condition

    Inherent ability to buffer changes

    Highly vulnerable, but place represents best chance of success

    Change (Future-adapted)

    High likelihood that current conditions will fail, making change is necessary

    Changes are already occurring, and can be enhanced

    Good opportunity to try something new

  • Option

    Strategy

    Approach

    Tactic

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

    Broad adaptation responses Sustain fundamental

    functions of soil and water. Reduce risks from warmer

    and drier conditions. Reduce the risk and long-

    term impacts of extreme weather.

    Alter management to accommodate expected future conditions.

  • Option

    Strategy

    Approach

    Tactic

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

    More specific actions Diversify varieties, crops,

    breeds, or products. Establish or encourage new

    combinations of varieties or breeds.

    Switch to commodities expected to be better suited to future conditions.

  • Option

    Strategy

    Approach

    Tactic

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

    Prescriptive actions selected by producer that are designed for individual site conditions and management objectives

  • FEW (3)

    MANY ()

    Option

    Strategy

    Approach

    Tactic

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

  • Manage for persistence

    Reduce the risk and long-term impacts of extreme weather.

    Reduce peak flows, runoff, and water erosion.

    Install perennial filter strips at edges of vulnerable fields

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

  • Manage for change

    Alter agricultural systems or lands to new climate conditions.

    Realign severely altered systems toward future conditions.

    Shift from field cropping to perennial forage on drier, lower productivity fields

    CONCEPT

    ACTION

    Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

  • Summary: There isnt a single answer

    Each decision is unique and will vary based upon: Place: Location & Site Conditions

    Purpose: Goals & Objectives

    People: Values, Culture, & Resources

    Adaptation resources help producers/managers make decisions (without telling them what do do)

    Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and ChangeClimate-Driven ChangesClimate-Driven ChangesClimate-Driven ChangesAdaptationSlide Number 6Slide Number 7Adaptation Workbook ProcessAdaptation Workbook ProcessAdaptation Workbook ProcessAdaptation Workbook ProcessSlide Number 12Slide Number 13Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesPersistence or change?Persistence or change?Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesWhen you might emphasizeAdaptation Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Strategies and ApproachesSummary: There isnt a single answerSlide Number 26

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