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Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference

Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the

changing world of work

@resfoundation / #RFrobotics

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Session 1: Facing the future - new frontiers in robotics

Doctor Takanori Shibata, AIST JapanProfessor Alan Winfield, UWE

Professor Kerstin Dautenhahn, University of Hertfordshire

Ankur Modi, StatusTodayChair: David Willetts, Resolution Foundation

The Robots and Autonomous Systems of the Bristol Robotics

Laboratory

Facing the future: new frontiers in robotics

Resolution Foundation Robotics ConferenceScience Museum, London

4 July 2016

Alan FT WinfieldBristol Robotics LaboratoryScience Communication Unit

Real World Robots

The First WaveThe First Wave

The Second Wave

Robots and humans working together

The BERT2 robot is able to comprehend voice

commands as well as simple hand gestures

http://www.chrisfp7.eu/

The Anchor Robotics Personalised Assisted Living Studio

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Bio inspired robotics: artificial whiskers

www.whiskerbot.org

The rat “sees” the world with its

whiskers. Scratchbot has artificial whiskers

just like a rat.

An artificial whisker module

Tactile sensing – Tactip artificial finger tip

`

Engineered Implementation

http://www.brl.ac.uk/researchthemes/medicalrobotics/tactip.aspx

Remote tele-haptics: allows us to transmit the sense of touch

Tactile sensing – Tactip artificial finger tip

`

Engineered Implementation

http://www.brl.ac.uk/researchthemes/medicalrobotics/tactip.aspx

Remote tele-haptics: allows us to transmit the sense of touch

Medical and surgical robotics

http://brl.ac.uk/research/researchthemes/medicalrobotics.aspx

The wearable hand: an exo-skeleton for post-stroke therapy

Image-based robotic system for enhanced minimally invasive intra-articular fracture surgeries, ICRA 2016

Medical and surgical robotics

Dr Sabine Hauert, Wired magazine 2015

This swarm of 1000 ‘kilobots’ is used to model nano-particles for cancer treatmenthttp://sabinehauert.com/

Urine-tricity: Electricity from waste water

ANODE

CATHODE

http://www.brl.ac.uk/researchthemes/bioenergyselfsustainable/urine-tricity.aspx

Pee power at Glastonbury June 2016

Microbial Fuel Cell

Driverless cars

VENTURER aims to establish a test facility for connected and autonomous vehicleshttp://www.venturer-cars.com/

FLOURISH is developing user-centric autonomous vehicle technology and

connected transport systemshttp://www.designability.org.uk/researchproject/flourish/

The AI: Verification and Validation

Trustworthy Robotic Assistantswww.robosafe.org

Verifiable Autonomyhttp://wordpress.csc.liv.ac.uk/va/

http://cgi.csc.liv.ac.uk/~michael/VaVAS/

The Innovation Pipeline

Dawn RoboticsOmnidynamics

http://brl.ac.uk/businessengagement/technologyincubation1.aspx

Acknowledgements

• All of my Colleagues in the BRL, but especially• Prof Chris Melhuish• Prof Tony Pipe• Prof Ioannis Ieropoulos• Prof John Greenman• Prof Sanja Dogramadzi• Prof Praminda Caleb-Solly• Dr Kerstin Eder• Dr Sabine Hauert• Dr Martin Pearson• Dr Dieter Vanderelst• Ian Horsfield

www.brl.ac.uk

Neurological Therapeutic Medical Robot, PARO,

for Non-pharmacological Therapy

Takanori ShibataNational Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)Tokyo Institute of TechnologyThe Age Lab., Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Contents

Animal TherapySeal Robot, PARORobot Therapy around the WorldDiscussion

Animal Assisted Therapy/Activity

Psychological Merits Cheer Motivation

Physiological Merits Stress Reduction Rehabilitation

Social Merits Encourage Communication

Problems of Owning Animals

AllergiesBitesInfectionHouse regulation

Difficult to introduce!

Therapeutic Seal Robot: PARO

Model: Baby of Harp Seal

Purposes of Robots

Industrial Robot Service Robot

Physical Service Psychological/EmotionalService

Objectivity and Subjectivity

Objective Measures Cheap Fast Accurate

Subjective Measures Interesting Beautiful Comfortable

Automated Machine Aesthetic ObjectHome Appliance

EntertainmentMedical Welfare

Industrial RobotsWorking with Humans

Mental Commitment Robot

Seal Robot, PARO, for Therapy9th Generation

10 CPUs32bit RISC, etc

Posture Sensor

neck(2), each front fin(1), rear fins(1),each eyelid(1)

Actuator×7

Light Sensors×2

Vision

Microphone×3Audition

Weight: 2.5 kg

・ Ubiquitous Surface Tactile Sensor ×12

・ Artificial Fur　 (Anti-biotic)

Touch

・Whisker Tactile Sensor

Size:L:550 x W:290 x H:180 mm

Voice RecognitionLearning Functions:

• New Name• Change Behavior

PARO’s Inside (X-ray in NY, 2006)

Safety and DependabilityCE, RoHS, and other regulations

Anti-bacterial, Hair-Loss Prevention, and Soil Resistant Finish in Artificial Fur

Electromagnetic ShieldCoping with Strong Force by HumansEasy Usage and Maintenance

One Switch and Pacifier Type Battery Charger

Tough StructureDrop TestStroking Test (100,000 times)Anti-Electrostatic Voltage Test (20,000

Volt)

Technical Points

Ubiquitous Surface Tactile Sensor

Automatic Chip Mounter Six Layered Print Circuit

PARO Factory

Aesthetic PointsHandmade for Quality

Eyelashes Trimming

PARO on the World Map(in more than 30 countries)

Place where Paro has been used

4500 PAROs in Practical Use2500 PAROs in Japan since 2005

50% are individuals, and 40% are institutionsAbout 300 PAROs in Denmark since 2009

80% municipalities adopted PAROsNL, FR, DE, CH, UK & other EU countries

100% are institutions Seminar and Certification Health Insurance of Germany

In the US, since Dec. 2009 Medical Device by FDA

Science Museum, London, UK Jan. – Mar. 2002 (video)

Guinness World Records (Feb. 2002)PARO: The Most Therapeutic Robot

Observed Effects for Elderly with Dementia

Improve Depression, Anxiety, Pain, Sleep, Loneliness, QOL, etc.

Reduce StressImprove Communication and

Sociability Reduce Aggression, Wandering, etc.

Reduce Burden of CareReduce Risk of FallingReduce Psychotropic Medications

(PRNs)

Alzheimer Patient with Anxiety(Italy, since Feb. 2005)

National Health Service, the UK

Sheffield, the UK

NHS meeting on PAROin Brighton, UK on March 4th, 2016

SystemSURE Plus protocol (2013) for swab testing irregular surfaces

Area of PARO 10 x 10 cm fur tested

Initial score (>30 = fail) RLU

After 1 min clean RLU

After 2 min cleanRLU

Head fur 26    Right Flipper 57 28 0Left Flipper 60 56 0Bottom (where on/off switch is)

30    

Top Left Back area 29    Top right back area 162 59 16Stomach (underneath) 79    Head 39           

Clinell wipes (green)

VA Reno, US (March, 2014)Dementia and PTSD

Healthy Ageing with PAROfor Active Senior

20 Women with Ovarian Cancer (49-71: ave. 67)Chemotherapy for 3 – 5 hoursInteraction with PARO reduce・ Pain (P = .04), Fatigue (P = .034), Anxiety (P = .036)・ Improve 9 factors of Quality of Life on Health (P = .03)UC Irvine and Long Beach Memorial Hospital, CA, USA(Society of Gynecologic Oncologists (SGO) 44th Annual Meeting on Women's Cancer, 351, 2013)

Cancer PatientsChemotherapy with PARO

Boston Higashi School for Children with Autism (Feb. 26, 2009)

Robot Therapy at Karolinska Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden (Oct. 2003 - )

Astrid Lindgrens Pediatric Hospital

LIVA

The End

parorobots.com

Kerstin DautenhahnAdaptive Systems Research GroupUniversity of Hertfordshire

Robot-Assisted Play for Children with Autism

©University of Hertfordshire

Bridging the gap

Humanunpredictabilitycomplexity

Machinepredictabilitysimplicity

Behaviour

Understanding a system understanding behaviour understanding minds

Systemising Empathising

We see a lot of potential of children with autism (e.g. for joint attention) that often does not appear in typical comparisons with neurotypical children

Levels of potential benefits• Enjoyment (benefits for

child)• Engagement in social

interaction with other people (benefits for child/parent/other people)

• Learning and generalising social skills/ Therapeutic aspects (life skills, independent living)– long-term studies– Clinical aspects

Focus• Robot-assisted play• Tool in the hands of

therapists/teachers– Not a replacement– Not an extra burden

• Robot as a social mediator– Mediating between the

child and other people• Therapy-oriented (not

autism research)

Introduce KASPAR: Design Rationale

• Realistic but simplified human-like features• Child-sized• Robotic in nature• Different modes of operation, key-pad,

autonomous, hybrid

Body Language: (Dynamic) Expressions

“sad” “thinking”

“happy”

“goodbye”

Kaspar design• It looks like a toy

– …since children like to interact with toys– Children’s clothing– Child-sized, child-like but robotic appearance– Games that are fun

• But it is a complex mechatronic system– composed of over 800 parts – rather complicated software behind controlling all 22 motors, 19

pressure sensors,  2 video cameras (in the eyes), and various microcomputer controllers.

Key: User-centred design and research

• Kaspar’s design was inspired by autism research• Several iterations of redesign• Interactive games were programmed to be fun for

the children, and to have therapeutic and educational goals

• Interdisciplinary team of researchers: computer science, engineering, psychology, therapy

• Innovations not only in hardware and software design, but also in the methodology

Some results from studies with KASPAR

• Teaching imitation and turn-taking skills skills

• Cause and effect games and emotional expressions (“happy”, “sad”)

• Appropriate tactile social interaction• “if you are happy and you know it…”

(naming body parts, singing in a group)• Teaching child-child collaborative skills

Research with KASPAR• Case study evaluations with 100 children in

long-term interactions in schools– Quantitative data based on analysis of children’s

behaviour• Redesign of KASPAR• Field study has started in March 2015, using

KASPAR in homes of families• Use of KASPAR by teachers in schools for

several years, more schools will use KASPAR• Teachers at Tracks in Stevenage have been

using KASPAR with their pre-school children with autism for > 2 years

Developed a tool…

• for teachers/parents/siblings to assist interaction and communication with a child with autism

• for robot-assisted therapy according to defined developmental and therapeutic needs of individual children

Thank You

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Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference

Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the

changing world of work

@resfoundation / #RFrobotics

59

Session 2: Robot wars - what do robots mean for Britain’s labour market?

Professor Michael Osborne, University of OxfordOrna Ni-Chionna, Royal Mail

Sarah O’Connor, Financial TimesProfessor Alan Manning, LSE

Chair: Torsten Bell, Resolution Foundation

Robot wars: what do robots mean for Britain's labour

market?Resolution Foundation Robotics ConferenceTorsten Bell

July 2016

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Click icon to add picture

Employment is at record highs…

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…but robot angst is rife

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Robots put 15 million UK jobs at risk, warns Bank of EnglandThe Independent

Robots will take over most jobs within 30 yearsThe Telegraph

The robots will

take our jobs.

Then what?

Forbes

Fast food workers

are becoming

obsoleteBusiness Insider

Goodbye jobs!

Welcome

machines!Die Zeit

Robots could

replace over 5

million jobs

The Telegraph

March of the machine makes idle handsNew York Times

Automation will mark the end of our work-obsessed societyThe Guardian

Workers see

‘robot revolution’

depriving them of

jobsNew York Times

Risks of automation have been quantified

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‘Routineness’ has been a good predictor of past job losses

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And overall employment masks big changes, driven in part by automation

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Routine jobs were also typically middle-paying

66

But has there been a ‘hollowing out’ of the pay distribution?

67

But has there been a ‘hollowing out’ of the pay distribution? No

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The ‘hollowing out’ of jobs in the middle……has been accompanied by a ‘filling in’ with new jobs

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The case for more robots: 1) terrible productivity growth

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The case for more robots: 2) Brexit might add to the need in some sectors

71

Robot angst has been rife for a long time

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Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference

Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the

changing world of work

@resfoundation / #RFrobotics

73

Robots and the Labour Market

Alan ManningCentre for Economic Performance

London School of Economics

Economics is almost entirely absent from the discussion – I will try to sketch why that might matter

• Output is produced by labour, machines, and technology, t (which affects the form of machines)

• New technology (robots) might mean:1. more output with same amount of labour and capital (few

would disagree with this)2. labour becomes less important in production (a lot have

argued it does)• Wages can fall in the short-run if (2) is true – (1) is

irrelevant• But wages rise in the long-run if (1) is true - (2) is

irrelevant

Returns to Labour and Capital

• Labour and Capital Earn their ‘Marginal Product’ i.e. their contribution to output

• With fixed capital we get result that wages fall if (2) is satisfied – (1) is irrelevant

• But capital is not fixed!• And things very different when it is variable

Variable Capital

• Cost of capital is interest rate + depreciation rate, normally think of this as constant

• Employ capital until marginal product equals cost of capital

• Now we expect that wages rise if (1) is satisfied – (2) is irrelevant

• i.e. long-run effect of new technology is always to raise average wages

Why is this?• As we use more robots, they themselves become cheaper

so we use lots of them – this acts to raise the productivity of workers which is what wages ultimately depend on

• What if there are lots of different goods/services:• using robots are cheaper, people have more money to spend

on other things creating jobs there – probably not new jobs, just more old jobs

• What if there are lots of different types of workers• Some types may lose• But average worker gains• And policy can make sure all benefit

Conclusion

• Please don’t write about the impact of robots on the labour market using a superficial analysis

• That’s why all previous warnings that new technology were going to cause the ‘end of work’ were wrong

• There are serious issues here but I am not sure current debates are getting to them

Some very simple economics(using simple algebra)

• Output is produced by labour, L, capital, K, and technology, t according to a production function F(L,K,t)

• Assume doubling L and K doubles output• Higher t means more output so we have• But suppose new technology also displaces

labour so we have that:

0Ft

2

0FL t

Returns to Labour and Capital

• Labour and Capital Earn their ‘Marginal Product’ i.e.:

• With fixed capital we get result that wage falls with robots

• But capital is not fixed!• And things very different when it is variable

, ,F L K tW

L

2 , ,F L K tWt L t

Variable Capital

• Cost of capital is interest rate + depreciation rate, r+δ, normally think of this as constant

• Employ capital until point where

• Total income to labour is:• And by envelope theorem:

• i.e. long-run effect of new technology is always to raise wages

, ,F L K tr

K

, ,WL F L K t r K

, ,0

F L K tWLt t

This is very simple – what if…

• Many types of goods– Same result

• Many types of labour– Some types may lose– But average worker gains– And policy can make sure all benefit

84

Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference

Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the changing world of work

@resfoundation / #RFrobotics