WHAT FACTORS

CONTRIBUTING TO

PROPERTIES BECOME

PROBLEM?

Provided by:

Ronak Moradi, The University of Akron, OH

Fall Intern

December 2016

Community Development Department, The City of Fitchburg, MA

What Factors Are contributing to Properties Become Vacant

Problem Property indicators in other communities

• Vacancy

• Poverty

• Unemployment

• Health

• The amount of time that a property has been in

that particular condition

• Water shut off

• Gas shut off

• Code violations

• Noise violations

• Police calls/crime reports

• Property tax payments

• Frequency in violations, complaints or problems

• Number of Inspections

• Record of Illegal Occupancy

• Record of Condemnation Intents

• Number of Administrative Citations

• Exterior Violations

• Fire Violations

• Interior Violations

• Nuisance Violation

• Condemned

• Dangerous Dogs

• Owner of the property: investors rather than

homeowners

• The length of the foreclosure process

• Population decline

• Physical condition of a structure

• Aesthetic or environmental damage: Deteriorated

or Unsafe/Hazard

NICE PROPERTIES Property Address / NICE Properties

190 RIVER ST 147 Daniels St 480 Water St 60 Albee St

94 MARSHALL RD 21 Pacific St 16 Market St 1050 Westminster St

12 NASHUA ST 17 Pacific St 99 Wall St 76 Prichard St

30-32 Prichard St 80 Highland Ave 22 Plymouth St 23 Pleasant St

48 St Joseph Av 5 Clinton St 9 Clinton St 16 Prichard St

98 Pleasant St 427 Oak Hill Rd 66 Myrtle Ave 273 Milk St

4 Upton St 64 Nashua St 63 Columbus St 34 Kimball Pl

127 Mt Vernon St

Code Enforcement Number of Records

Code Violation 28.00

Vacant/Foreclosing Registration 9.00

Misc Correspondence 1.00

Owner/Agent Information 1.00

Reinspection of code violation 1.00

Fire Report 1.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

AREA C

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TRAFFIC

SERVIC

ES

Frequency of Police Calls and Code Enforcement

Police Calls Number of

Records Police Calls

Number of

Records

AREA CHECK 65.00 ILLEGAL DUMPING 3.00

TRAFFIC ENFORCEMENT 26.00 UNWANTED GUEST 3.00

WARRANTS 23.00 ANIMALS STRAY/UNRESTRAINED 2.00

DISTURBANCES 22.00 MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS 2.00

FOLLOW-UP/ INVESTIGATE 14.00 Motor Vehicle/ Disabled 2.00

Overdose/Possible 11.00 POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 2.00

SUSPICIOUS AUTO/TRUCK 11.00 Trespassing 2.00

SUMMONS ATTEMPT 10.00 Animal 1.00

FIRE/AMBULANCE 9.00 Animal/ other 1.00

SUSPICIOUS PERSON 8.00 ASSAULTS 1.00

SUSPICIOUS SITUATION 8.00 DRUNKENESS 1.00

Breaking & Entering 7.00 HANG UP 911 CALL 1.00

PRIVATE TOWS 7.00 LARCENYS/THEFTS 1.00

ASSIST OTHER AGENCY 5.00 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 1.00

NARCOTICS OFFENSES 5.00 Parking Complaint 1.00

DCF Request 4.00 PROSTITUTION 1.00

POLICE INFORMATION 4.00 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 1.00

AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS 3.00 TRAFFIC SERVICES 1.00

DEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 3.00

Used Indicators in CityNexus

Code in CiryNexus Definition Score

Code in CiryNexus Definition Score

tab

ler_

ne

w_p

oli

ce

_call

s

0200 Rape 1

tab

ler_

ne

w_p

olic

e_call

s

2100 DRUNK DRIVING 1 0300 ROBBERY 1 2200 LIQUOR LAWS 1 0400 AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS 1 2205 Liquor Law F. S. U. Related 1 0500 BURGLARY 1 2300 DRUNKENESS 1 0510 Breaking & Entering 1 2400 DISTURBANCES 1 0600 LARCENYS/THEFTS 1 2404 POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 1 0700 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFTS 2405 SUSPICIOUS NOISES 1 700 false alarms fire department 1 2406 FAMILY DISTURBANCE/DOMESTICS 1 710 false alarms fire department 1 2407 Trespassing 1 0800 ASSAULTS 1 2409 Disturbance F. S. U. related 1 1000 FORGERY/COUNTERFEIT 1 2420 KEEP THE PEACE 1 1100 FRAUD 1 2421 HARASSMENT INCIDENT 1 1300 STOLEN PROPERTY 1 2430 UNWANTED GUEST 1 1400 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 1 2500 VAGRANCY 1 1401 Graffiti 1 2700 Threats 1 1500 WEAPONS/USE/POSS/MANU/LIC 1 8000 WARRANTS 1 1510 SHOTS FIRED 1 8501 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 1 1550 BOMB THREAT 1 8503 HARASSMENT ORDER ATTEMPT 1 1600 PROSTITUTION 1 8504 R. O. Violation 1 1700 SEX OFFENSES/REGISTER LVL1,2,3 1 8505 Harassment Order Violation 1 1800 NARCOTICS OFFENSES 1 Year 2016 tabler_docuware_health_department 1

2000 FAMILY OFFENSES/ELDER 1 property_code is 2

tabler_fitchburg_residential_and_nonresidential_pr

operties -10000

2001 Child Abuse/ Neglect 1 property_code

is 3

tabler_fitchburg_residential_and_nonresidential_pr

operties -10000

Violation / police calls - in First 10 properties

ALL REASONS FOR A POLICE CALL code Reasontext / Police Calls code Reasontext / Police Calls code Reasontext / Police Calls code Reasontext / Police Calls

cod

e Reasontext / Police Calls

cod

e Reasontext / Police Calls

0200 Rape 2408 Truancy/Juvenile 5504 ANIMALS STRAY/UNRESTRAINED 1710 DA Referal Sexual Offenses 4029 RELEASE FROM

INCARCERATION 6620 TRAFFIC SPEED TRAILER

0300 ROBBERY 2409 Disturbance F. S. U. related 5505 ANIMAL BITES ALL OTHER 1720 DA Referral/ Disabled Person 4029 POLICE INFO. PRISONER

RELEASE 6625 TRAFFIC ABANDONED MV

0400 AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS 2410 FIREWORKS 5506 ANIMALS INJURED 1800 NARCOTICS OFFENSES 4029 POLICE INFORMATION-PRI.

RELEAS 6630 Traffic LPR Stop

0500 BURGLARY 2420 KEEP THE PEACE 5507 ANIMALS VIC/ABAND/ABUSED 2000 FAMILY OFFENSES/ELDER 4050 ILLEGAL DUMPING 7100 PRISONER SERVICES

0501 ALARMS 2421 HARASSMENT INCIDENT 6000 MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS 2001 Child Abuse/ Neglect 4070 WELL BEING CHECK 7110 PRISONER RELEASE

0510 Breaking & Entering 2430 UNWANTED GUEST 6010 Motor Vehicle/ Disabled 2002 DCF Request 4071 Overdose/Possible 7500 ASSIST OTHER AGENCY

0600 LARCENYS/THEFTS 2500 VAGRANCY 6200 child seat install 2100 DRUNK DRIVING 4100 FIRE/AMBULANCE 8000 WARRANTS

0700 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFTS 2600 ALL OTHER OFFENSES 6300 TRAFFIC ENFORCEMENT 2200 LIQUOR LAWS 4100 FIRE/AMBULANCE326 8000 ̀ WARRANTS

0800 ASSAULTS 2700 Threats 6300 TRAFFIC ENFORCEMENT

STATIONARY 2205 Liquor Law F. S. U. Related 4110 Building Fire 8500 DEPARTMENTAL SERVICES

0911 HANG UP 911 CALL 2800 MISSING PERSON 6300 STATIONARY TRAFFIC

ENFORCEMENT 2300 DRUNKENESS 4120 MOTOR VEHICLE FIRE 8500 STATIONARY TRAFFIC

ENFORCEMENT

1000 FORGERY/COUNTERFEIT 2900 RUNAWAYS 6301 Speeding complaint 2301 Panhandling 4300 MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES 8500 SUMMONS SERVED

1047 FOLLOW-UP/ INVESTIGATE 3400 OFFICER INVOLVED M/V

ACCIDENT 6302 Parking Complaint 2400 DISTURBANCES 4310 CIT (mental health) checks 8500 SUMMONS ATTEMPT

1100 FRAUD 3410 OFFICER INJURED ON DUTY 6304 traffic school zone 2401 SUSPICIOUS AUTO/TRUCK 4500 DEATHS/ SUICIDES 8501 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT

1300 STOLEN PROPERTY 3420 Police Vehicle Damage 6310 Tows for City 2401 SUSPICIOUS PERSON 5250 Lost Property 8502 SUMMONS ATTEMPT

1400 MALICIOUS

MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 3900 SUICIDE threat/ attempt 6600 TRAFFIC SERVICES 2402 SUSPICIOUS PERSON 5255 FOUND PROPERTY 8503 HARASSMENT ORDER ATTEMPT

1401 Graffiti 4000 NON-CRIMINAL COMPLAINTS 6600 STATIONARY TRAFFIC

ENFORCEMENT 2403 SUSPICIOUS SITUATION 5499 Animal/ other 8504 R. O. Violation

1500 WEAPONS/USE/POSS/MANU/

LIC 4000 ̀ NON-CRIMINAL COMPLAINTS 6602 PRIVATE TOWS 2404 POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 5500 ANIMAL COMPLAINTS 8505 Harassment Order Violation

1510 SHOTS FIRED 4005 Complaint Against P.O. 6603 Traffic Complaint by Citizens 2405 SUSPICIOUS NOISES 5501 ANIMALS DEAD 9400 AREA CHECK

1550 BOMB THREAT 4010 City Claim 6605 TRAFFIC PETITIONS 2406 FAMILY

DISTURBANCE/DOMESTICS 5502 ANIMALS/BARKING DOGS 9400 TRAFFIC ENFORCEMENT

1600 PROSTITUTION 4029 POLICE INFORMATION 6610 TRAFFIC HANDICAPPED PARKING 2407 Trespassing 5503 ANIMAL/DOG BITES 9401 AREA CHECK (motorcycle)

1700 SEX OFFENSES/REGISTER

LVL1,2,3 4029 LETTER OF GOOD CONDUCT 6615 TRAFFIC CAUTIONARY

Studying First 10 Properties with the Highest Score in CIityNexus Last 12 month

Date

Property rank in

CityNexus score Property Address

number of units get from

assessors data base

number/ description of health dept.

reports

police reports- number and type of calls

false fire alarms

building dept

reports Police calls

per unit

Health Violation per

unit 9/27/2016 1 59 30-32 Prichard Street 5 8 37 19 1.6

9/27/2016 2 55 245 River Street 105 4 54 1 2 0.0 9/27/2016 3 51 67 Day Street 7 9 44 6 1.3

9/30/2016 4 37 1 Normandy Road 7 1 36 5 0.1 9/30/2016 5 36 16 Prichard Street 96 0 35 0 0.0

9/30/2016 6 32 98 Pleasant Street 12 13 3 0 1.1

9/30/2016 7 31 48 St. Joseph Avenue 3 3 22 7 1.0 9/30/2016 8 26 35 Day Street 74 0 25 1 0 0.0

9/30/2016 9 24 49 Cedar Street 7 5 0 0 0.7 9/30/2016 10 23 35 Holt Street 55 0 22 0 0.0

8 4 9

1 0

13 3

0 5

0

37 54 44

36 35 3 22 25

0

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

245 River Street 67 Day Street 1 Normandy Road 16 Prichard Street 98 Pleasant Street 35 Day Street 49 Cedar Street 35 Holt Street

Comparing Properties Considering Code Enforcement and Police Calls in General

number/ description of health dept. reports police reports- number and type of calls

5

105

7 7

96

12

3

74

7

55

8 4

9

1 0

13

3 0

5 0

37

54

44

36 35

3

22 25

0

22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

30-32 PrichardStreet

245 River Street 67 Day Street 1 Normandy Road 16 Prichard Street 98 Pleasant Street 48 St. JosephAvenue

35 Day Street 49 Cedar Street 35 Holt Street

Comparing number of units, health violations and police calls

number of units get from assessors data base number/ description of health dept. reports police reports- number and type of calls

19

2

6 5

0 0

7

0 0 0

1.6

0.0

1.3 0.1

0.0 1.1

1.0

0.0 0.7 0.0 0

5

10

15

20

25

30-32 PrichardStreet

245 River Street 67 Day Street 1 Normandy Road 16 Prichard Street 98 Pleasant Street 48 St. JosephAvenue

35 Day Street 49 Cedar Street 35 Holt Street

Comparing properties considering health violations and police calls per unit

Police calls per unit Health Violation per unit

30-32 Prichard Street 245 River Street 67 Day Street 1 Normandy Road

DISTURBANCES 9 AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS 3 ASSAULTS 1 AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS 1

LARCENYS/THEFTS 1 ASSAULTS 7 Breaking & Entering 1 ASSAULTS 1

NARCOTICS OFFENSES 3 DISTURBANCES 13 BURGLARY 1 DISTURBANCES 3

PROSTITUTION 1 DRUNKENESS 1 DISTURBANCES 17 HARASSMENT INCIDENT 1

Trespassing 1 HARASSMENT INCIDENT 4 HARASSMENT ORDER ATTEMPT 1 HARASSMENT ORDER ATTEMPT 7

UNWANTED GUEST 3 KEEP THE PEACE 3 KEEP THE PEACE 1 KEEP THE PEACE 2

WARRANTS 19 LARCENYS/THEFTS 1 NARCOTICS OFFENSES 1 LARCENYS/THEFTS 1

Total 37 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 3 POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 4 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 2

POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 4 PROSTITUTION 2 NARCOTICS OFFENSES 1

48 St. Joseph Avenue R. O. Violation 2 R. O. Violation 1 POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 1

AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS 3 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 7 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 3 R. O. Violation 1

ASSAULTS 1 Threats 1 UNWANTED GUEST 5 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 10

Breaking & Entering 3 UNWANTED GUEST 2 WARRANTS 6 WARRANTS 2

DISTURBANCES 8 WARRANTS 3 Total 44 WEAPONS/USE/POSS/MANU/LIC 3

DRUNKENESS 1 Total 54 Total 36

MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 1

NARCOTICS OFFENSES 1 35 Day Street 16 Prichard Street 35 Holt Street

POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 1 DISTURBANCES 6 DISTURBANCES 11 ASSAULTS 1

WARRANTS 3 DRUNKENESS 1 FRAUD 2 Breaking & Entering 3

Total 22 FRAUD 1 HARASSMENT INCIDENT 6 DISTURBANCES 10

HARASSMENT ORDER ATTEMPT 2 LARCENYS/THEFTS 1 LARCENYS/THEFTS 1

98 Pleasant Street LARCENYS/THEFTS 4 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 1 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 3

DISTURBANCES 1 LIQUOR LAWS 1 NARCOTICS OFFENSES 4 NARCOTICS OFFENSES 1

POSSIBLE DOMESTIC 1 MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDALISM 2 Trespassing 6 Threats 2

RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 1 RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT 2 WARRANTS 4 UNWANTED GUEST 1

Total 3 Threats 1 Total 35 Total 22

Trespassing 4

WARRANTS 1

Total 25

Police calls-First 10 Properties in CityNexus

DISTURBANCES 24%

NARCOTICS OFFENSES

8%

[CATEGORY NAME]

[PERCENTAGE]

WARRANTS 51%

30-32 PRICHARD STREET

AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS

5% ASSAULTS 13%

DISTURBANCES

24%

[CATEGORY NAME]

[PERCENTAGE]

KEEP THE PEACE

5%

[CATEGORY NAME]

[PERCENTAGE]

POSSIBLE DOMESTIC

7%

RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT

13%

WARRANTS 6%

245 RIVER STREET

DISTURBANCES 39%

POSSIBLE

DOMESTIC

9%

RESTRAINING

ORDER ATTEMP

T 7%

UNWANTED

GUEST 12%

WARRANTS

14%

67 DAY STREET

DISTURBANCES 8%

HARASSMENT ORDER ATTEMPT

19%

KEEP THE PEACE 5%

MALICIOUS MISCHIEF/VANDA

LISM 5%

R. O. Violation 3%

RESTRAINING ORDER ATTEMPT

28%

WARRANTS 6%

WEAPONS/USE/POSS/MANU/LIC

8%

1 NORMANDY ROAD

AGGRAVATED

ASSAULTS 14%

Breaking &

Entering 14%

[CATEGORY NAME]

[PERCENTAGE]

NARCOTICS

OFFENSES 5%

POSSIBLE DOMESTIC

5%

WARRANTS

14%

48 ST. JOSEPH AVENUE

Date Property Address Code Violation police

calls

Score in city

nexus Units

false fire

alarms

building dept reports

Police calls per unit

Health Violation per unit

Total

1 17-10-2016 245 River Street 0 42 55 105 1 0.40 0.00 0.40

2 17-10-2016 67 Day Street 4 36 51 7 5.14 0.57 5.71

3 17-10-2016 1 Normandy Road 0 1 37 4 0.25 0.00 0.25

4 17-10-2016 16 Prichard Street 0 29 36 96 0.30 0.00 0.30

5 17-10-2016 98 Pleasant Street 6 3 32 12 0.25 0.50 0.75

6 17-10-2016 48 St. Joseph Avenue 1 15 31 3 5.00 0.33 5.33

7 17-10-2016 35 Day Street 0 23 26 74 1 0.31 0.00 0.31

8 17-10-2016 49 Cedar Street 2 10 24 7 1.43 0.29 1.71

9 17-10-2016 35 Holt Street 1 14 23 55 0.25 0.02 0.27

10 17-10-2016 973 Main Street 0 17 22 25 3 0.68 0.00 0.68

11 17-10-2016 190 Blossom Street 3 10 21 4 2.50 0.75 3.25

12 17-10-2016 69 Academy Street 0 12 21 7 1.71 0.00 1.71

13 17-10-2016 40 Garnet Street 7 8 20 6 1.33 1.17 2.50

14 17-10-2016 50 Day Street 0 18 20 125 0.14 0.00 0.14

15 17-10-2016 107 Prichard Street 0 8 19 4 2.00 0.00 2.00 16 17-10-2016 33 Goddard Street 0 8 19 3 2.67 0.00 2.67

17 17-10-2016 41 School Street 0 7 19 1 7.00 0.00 7.00

18 17-10-2016 46 Goddard Street 5 2 19 3 0.67 1.67 2.33 … … … … … … … … … … … …

100 17-10-2016 194 Charles Street 2 10

Studying First 100 Property in CIityNexus

Studying First 500 Property in CIityNexus

Score in city

nexus Property Address Code

Violation Total Police

calls Vacant/Foreclosin

g De-Registration Vacant/Foreclosing

Registration Total

1 55.00 245 River Street

2 51.00 67 Day Street 4 36.00 40.00

3 37.00 1 Normandy Road

4 36.00 16 Prichard Street

5 32.00 98 Pleasant Street 6 3.00 10.00

6 31.00

48 St. Joseph

Avenue

7 26.00 35 Day Street

8 24.00 49 Cedar Street 2 10.00 12.00

9 23.00 35 Holt Street 1 14.00 15.00

10 22.00 973 Main Street

11 21.00 190 Blossom Street 3 10.00 13.00

12 21.00 69 Academy Street

13 20.00 40 Garnet Street 7 8.00 15.00

14 20.00 50 Day Street

15 19.00 464 Kimball Street 7 3.00 10.00

16 19.00 46 Goddard Street 5 2.00 7.00

17 19.00 7 Wood Street 1 1.00 2.00

18 19.00 72 Day Street 1 1.00 2.00

… … … … … … … …

500 3.00 90 Albee Street 1 1.00

Studying Properties with Score 1 and up in CIityNexus

(1465 Properties)

Property Address Units Score in city

nexus

Code

Violation

Fire

Report

Total Police

calls

Unit

s

Score in city

nexus

1 67 Day Street 1.0 51.0 4 36.0 1.0 51.0

2 98 Pleasant Street 3.0 32.0 6 1.0 3.0 3.0 32.0

3 49 Cedar Street 1.0 24.0 2 10.0 1.0 24.0

4 35 Holt Street 1.0 23.0 1 14.0 1.0 23.0

5 190 Blossom Street 2.0 21.0 3 10.0 2.0 21.0

6 40 Garnet Street 3.0 20.0 7 8.0 3.0 20.0

7 46 Goddard Street 1.0 19.0 5 2.0 1.0 19.0

8 464 Kimball Street 1.0 19.0 7 3.0 1.0 19.0

9 7 Wood Street 4.0 19.0 1 1.0 4.0 19.0

10 72 Day Street 1.0 19.0 1 1.0 1.0 19.0

11 37 Pleasant Street 0.0 17.0 5 8.0 0.0 17.0

12 440 Elm Street 0.0 17.0 5 7.0 0.0 17.0

13 63 Hazel Street 3.0 17.0 3 11.0 3.0 17.0

14 113 Pratt Street 2.0 16.0 2 6.0 2.0 16.0

15 118 Madison Street 3.0 15.0 10 2.0 3.0 15.0

16 12 Granite Street 1.0 15.0 2 11.0 1.0 15.0

17 162 Rollstone Street 15.0 2 15.0

18 167 Canton Street 2.0 15.0 5 1.0 2.0 15.0

… … … … … … … … …

1465 993 main Street 2.0 2 2.0

WEKA, An Open Source Machine Learning Software

Other Properties in the City of

Fitchburg (around 11200 properties)

Properties from NICE Task Force (we

already know about their Status) and

some examples of good Properties • Police Calls

• Code Enforcement

• Assessor’s Data Base

A comprehensive set

of data, including

WEKA • City of Fitchburg

Problem Property

Indicators

• At-Risk Properties

Process of work

Providing a comprehensive set of data, including police calls, code

enforcement and assessor’s data base by combining three data sets

o Police Calls from 1 January 2016 to 31 October 2016

o Code Enforcement from 1 January 2015 to 31 October 2016

o New Assessment Database 10 November 2016

Matching property addresses with different group of information

Making a big data set of 11200 properties and their related information.

Providing Pattern of numbers of Unit and Room for those properties

without information on Unit and Room

Process of work

Balancing the data extracting number of rooms for each property from data assessment spreadsheet. By dividing each score to number of rooms, I could provide normalized data.

Derivation 150 indicators for problem property (from police calls, code enforcement and assessor’s data base) and classifying them by Weka

Second Round: 60 Indicators

Training Weka by a Training Data (NICE Task Force Properties and some examples of good properties) and using Random Forests and J48 algorithm methods to classify all Fitchburg properties by their status

Weka Classifiers : trees.J48

Class for generating a pruned or unpruned C4.5 decision tree. For more information, see Ross Quinlan (1993). C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Mateo, CA.

Unpruned

Confidence Factor -- The confidence factor used for pruning (smaller values incur more pruning) = 0.01

Numbers of Folds -- Determines the amount of data used for reduced-error pruning. One fold is used for pruning, the rest for growing the tree = 3

Attribute Evaluator

Correlation Attribute Evaluator:

Evaluates the worth of an attribute by measuring the correlation (Pearson's) between it and the class.

Search Methods

Ranker : Ranks attributes by their individual evaluations.

11200 p

ropert

ies

6950 with at least one count of

indicators

A. 2783 properties

No information for numbers of room and unit

If Sum of Scores of indicators is equal or

higher than 16 Number of unit and room

and also property year built has been added

to its cell by using the assessor’s website

B. 4930 properties with information for numbers of

room and unit

Using theses part of data set to provide a

pattern of relation between number of units

and room and scores of indicators

4250 with zero information of

Indicators These properties removed from the current data set

From B Data Set

Total

scoring Average Room Average Units Behavior

Final Avg. per Group-

Room

Final Avg. per Group-

Units

Number of rooms in a

unit

1 7.6 1.5

Same 7.6 1.6 5 2 7.4 1.5

3 7.5 1.6

4 7.8 1.6

5 8.9 2.1

same 8.5 2.0 4

6 8.1 2.0

7 8.2 1.8

8 9.1 2.0

9 8.3 2.1

10 10.0 2.7 Same 10.8 2.8 4

11 11.6 2.8

12 12.6 6.4

Not Same 10.8 3.7 3 13 7.8 2.5

14 10.9 2.3

15 12.1 3.6

Studying Numbers of Room and Units in the 11200 Properties

Indicators of Problem Properties ( 150 Indicators)

Avg Room Avg. Rentallivunits Avg. Yearbuilt Buildtype Ownership Well AGGRAVATED

ASSAULTS ALARMS

ANIMAL COMPLAINTS Animal/ other ANIMAL/DOG BITES ANIMALS DEAD ANIMALS INJURED ANIMALS

STRAY/UNRESTRAINED ANIMALS

VIC/ABAND/ABUSED ANIMALS/BARKING

DOGS

ASSIST OTHER AGENCY BOMB THREAT Breaking Entering Building Fire BURGLARY Child Abuse/ Neglect child seat install CIT (mental health)

checks

DCF Request DEATHS/ SUICIDES DEPARTMENTAL SERVICES DISTURBANCE Disturbance F. S. U.

related DISTURBANCES DRUNK DRIVING DRUNKENESS

FIRE/AMBULANCE326 FIREWORKS FOLLOW-UP/ INVESTIGATE FORGERY/COUNTERFE

IT FOUND PROPERTY FRAUD Graffiti HANG UP 911 CALL

ILLEGAL DUMPING KEEP THE PEACE LARCENYS/THEFTS LETTER OF GOOD

CONDUCT Liquor Law F. S. U.

Related LIQUOR LAWS Lost Property

MALICIOUS

MISCHIEF/VANDALIS

M

MOTOR VEHICLE FIRE MOTOR VEHICLE

THEFTS Motor Vehicle/ Disabled NARCOTICS OFFENSES NON-CRIMINAL

COMPLAINTS OFFICER INJURED ON

DUTY Overdose/Possible Panhandling

Police Vehicle Damage POSSIBLE DOMESTIC PRISONER RELEASE PRISONER SERVICES PRIVATE TOWS PROSTITUTION R. O. Violation Rape

RUNAWAYS

SEX

OFFENSES/REGISTER

LVL1,2,3 SHOTS FIRED Speeding complaint STATIONARY TRAFFIC

ENFORCEMENT STOLEN PROPERTY SUICIDE threat/

attempt SUMMONS ATTEMPT

SUSPICIOUS PERSON SUSPICIOUS SITUATION Threats Tows for City TRAFFIC ABANDONED MV TRAFFIC CAUTIONARY Traffic Complaint

by Citizens TRAFFIC

ENFORCEMENT

traffic school zone TRAFFIC SERVICES TRAFFIC SPEED TRAILER Trespassing Truancy/Juvenile UNWANTED GUEST VAGRANCY WARRANTS

Air Quality Plan Approval Archive Asbestos Notification Beaver Permits Board & Secure Certified Mail Code Violation Court Doc

Invoice Landlord Registration Lien lien Discharge Misc Correspondence Nuisance Complaint Order To Correct Owner/Agent

Information

Rental Permits Septic Smoking Vote-Private

Clubs Ticket Transfer Station Vacant/Foreclosing De-

Registration SUMMONS SERVED

TRAFFIC

ENFORCEMENT

STATIONARY

ALL OTHER OFFENSES AREA CHECK City Claim

FAMILY

DISTURBANCE/DOMEST

ICS HARASSMENT INCIDENT MENTAL HEALTH

ISSUES Parking Complaint RELEASE FROM

INCARCERATION

ANIMAL BITES ALL OTHER AREA CHECK

(motorcycle) DA Referal Sexual

Offenses FAMILY

OFFENSES/ELDER HARASSMENT ORDER

ATTEMPT MISSING PERSON POLICE INFO.

PRISONER RELEASE RESTRAINING ORDER

ATTEMPT

Vacant/Foreclosing

Registration ASSAULTS DA Referral/ Disabled

Person FIRE/AMBULANCE Harassment Order

Violation MOTOR VEHICLE

ACCIDENTS POLICE

INFORMATION ROBBERY

WEAPONS/USE/POSS/MANU

/LIC Face Card Pb SUSPICIOUS

AUTO/TRUCK TRAFFIC HANDICAPPED

PARKING WELL BEING CHECK Fire Report Pictures

SUSPICIOUS NOISES TRAFFIC PETITIONS Abandoned Vehicle Housing Inspection

Report Reinspection of code

violation

Indicator Department

How

Important

is the

indicator

Indicator Department

How

Important

is the

indicator

Indicator Department

How

Important

is the

indicator

Indicator Department

How

Important

is the

indicator

Board & Secure Code Enforcement 0.3338 Suspicious Person Police 0.2332 Unwanted Guest Police 0.1505 Parking

Complaint Police 0.1336

Code Violation Code Enforcement 0.2057 Disturbances Police 0.2327 Traffic Services Police 0.149 Possible

Domestic Police 0.127

Misc Correspondence Code Enforcement 0.2045 Suspicious

Situation Police 0.2278

Summons

Attempt Police 0.1485 Fraud Police 0.119

Ticket Code Enforcement 0.1967 Breaking Entering Police 0.216 All Other

Offenses Police 0.1445 Shots Fired Police 0.1124

Housing Inspection

Report Code Enforcement 0.1902

Narcotics

Offenses Police 0.1951 Animals Dead Police 0.1445 Alarms Police 0.1083

Court Doc Code Enforcement 0.1656 Assist Other

Agency Police 0.1892 Found Property Police 0.1445

Animal

Complaints Police 0.0975

Abandoned Vehicle Code Enforcement 0.1445 Hang Up 911 Call Police 0.1876 Illegal Dumping Police 0.1445 Missing Person Police 0.0975

Certified Mail Code Enforcement 0.1445 Area Check Police 0.1866 Keep The Peace Police 0.1445 Motor Vehicle

Thefts Police 0.0975

Face Card Code Enforcement 0.1445 Well Being Check Police 0.1863 Private Tows Police 0.1445 Harassment

Incident Police 0.0821

Fire Report Code Enforcement 0.1445 DCF Request Police 0.1833 Prostitution Police 0.1445 Aggravated

Assaults Police 0.0281

Invoice Code Enforcement 0.1445 Police

Information Police 0.1787

Restraining

Order Attempt Police 0.1445 Assaults Police 0.0148

Lien Code Enforcement 0.1445 Departmental

Services Police 0.1755 Suspicious Noises Police 0.1445

Number of Rooms

Assessors

Order To Correct Code Enforcement 0.1445 Warrants Police 0.1706 Threats Police 0.1445 Number of units Assessors

Reinspection of code

violation Code Enforcement 0.1445 Trespassing Police 0.1563 Drunkeness Police 0.1432 Year built Assessors

Septic Code Enforcement 0.0975 Traffic

Enforcement Police 0.1545

Motor Vehicle

Accidents Police 0.1429 Ownership Assessors

Most Important Indicators of Problem Properties (60 Indicators) by Department

At-Risk Properties

Predicted At-

Risk Property Percentage

Predicted At-Risk

Property Percentage

Predicted At-Risk

Property Percentage

Predicted At-Risk

Property Percentage

1 wood St 0.9470 44 Berry Street Ex 0.9470 219 East St 0.9470 91 Milk St 0.8570

2 Prescott St 0.9470 46 Goddard St 0.9470 241 Canton St 0.9470 113 Payson St 0.8570

7 Wood St 0.9470 48 ST Joseph Av 0.9470 253 Madison St 0.9470 182 Rollstone St 0.8570

8 Blais Ct 0.9470 53 Highland Av 0.9470 266 Beech St 0.9470 479 Water St 0.8570

12 Park St 0.9470 57 Hazel St 0.9470 267 Mechanic St 0.9470 815 Ashburnham Hill

Rd 0.8570

12 Waverly St 0.9470 58 Marshall St 0.9470 275 Clarendon St 0.9470 31 Goddard St 0.6670

15 Fulton St 0.9470 59 Walnut st 0.9470 376 Elm St 0.9470 37 WINTER ST 0.6670

18 Foster St 0.9470 63 Beech St 0.9470 499 Water St 0.9470 43 Pleasant St 0.6670

21 Goddard St 0.9470 72 Pleasant St 0.9470 1142 Ashby State

Rd 0.9470 63 Myrtle Av 0.6670

22 Winter St 0.9470 81 Maverick St 0.9470 1351 Water St 0.9470 67 Day St 0.6670

24 Walnut St 0.9470 91 River St 0.9470 13 Chestnut St 0.8570 122 Leighton St 0.6670

27 Myrtle Av 0.9470 103 Nashua St 0.9470 15 Goddard St 0.8570 124 High St 0.6670

37 West St 0.9470 105 Blossom St 0.9470 33 Longedge Av 0.8570 190 Blossom St 0.6670

38 Granite St 0.9470 164 Blossom St 0.9470 35 Columbus St 0.8570 240 ELM ST 0.6670

38 Omena Pl 0.9470 176 Walton St 0.9470 42 Mayland St 0.8570 330 WATER ST 0.6670

40 Garnet St 0.9470 198 Blossom St 0.9470 54 Hazel St 0.8570 846 WESTMINSTER

HILL RD 0.6670

40 Myrtle Av 0.9470 215 Madison St 0.9470 66 Causeway St 0.8570

Recommendation For Further Study

Providing more instances: One of My difficulty was the number of indicators and

instances. The number of indicators was really higher than instances in the

Training data set and this situation made both algorithms confused.

Providing information for room and unit for 2783 properties from Part A (11200

properties)

Simple Linear Regression: I could not get an acceptable result with Simple Linear

Regression. It could be because of problem with linear assumption, noisy input

and output variables and outliers.

Providing a function that works with multiple tables in one command at the

CityNexus/Scoring Section