report created: streamflow forecast summary: june 1, 2018 … · jun-jul 11 13 15.8 24% 20 26 65...

Report Created:

6/30/2018 3:20:41 PM

Streamflow Forecast Summary: June 1, 2018

(averages based on 1981-2010 reference period)

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment

Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

GUNNISON RIVER BASIN Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

APR-JUL 43 52 58 59% 65 74 99

JUN-JUL 10.3 19.3 25 40% 32 41 62

APR-JUL 44 47 50 60% 53 58 83

JUN-JUL 13.7 17.3 20 48% 23 28 42

APR-JUL 81 87 91 50% 96 103 182

JUN-JUL 32 38 42 40% 47 54 106

APR-JUL 142 159 173 47% 188 210 370

JUN-JUL 50 67 81 38% 96 120 215

APR-JUL 10.4 11.6 12.6 42% 13.9 16.3 30

JUN-JUL 0.77 1.92 3 22% 4.3 6.7 13.8

APR-JUL 2.8 3.4 4.1 27% 5 6.6 15

JUN-JUL 0.25 0.91 1.6 22% 2.5 4.1 7.2

APR-JUL 12.4 14.8 17 23% 19.7 25 74

JUN-JUL 1.49 3.9 6.1 16% 8.8 13.8 37

APR-JUL 48 54 58 47% 62 70 123

JUN-JUL 13.7 19.2 24 30% 28 36 81

APR-JUL 200 225 260 39% 290 335 675

JUN-JUL 40 67 98 26% 129 175 380

MAR-JUN 18 18.2 19.2 20% 24 30 96

APR-JUL 16.1 16.9 17.9 18% 25 35 97

JUN 0.8 1 2 9% 6.4 12.8 23

JUN-JUL 1.2 2 3 10% 9.9 20 29

APR-JUL 85 91 103 36% 115 133 290

JUN-JUL 12 17.9 30 26% 42 60 114

APR-JUL 3.6 3.9 4.3 26% 4.6 5.3 16.8

JUN-JUL 0.4 0.7 1.02 13% 1.41 2.1 7.6

APR-JUL 29 31 34 34% 38 44 101

JUN-JUL 11 13 15.8 24% 20 26 65

APR-JUL 31 34 39 28% 44 54 137

JUN-JUL 10 13.3 18 22% 23 33 81

APR-JUL 330 340 390 26% 445 525 1480

JUN-JUL 40 46 100 14% 154 235 695

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions

3) Median value used in place of average



UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

APR-JUL 167 180 189 86% 199 210 220

JUN-JUL 75 89 98 68% 107 121 144

APR-JUL 33 35 37 79% 39 42 47

Ridgway Reservoir Inflow

Uncompahgre R at Colona 2

Gunnison R nr Grand Junction 2

Lake Granby Inflow 2

Willow Ck Reservoir Inflow

Tomichi Ck at Gunnison

Lake Fk at Gateview

Blue Mesa Reservoir Inflow 2

Paonia Reservoir Inflow

NF Gunnison R nr Somerset2

Surface Ck at Cedaredge

Taylor Park Reservoir Inflow

Slate R nr Crested Butte

East R at Almont

Gunnison R near Gunnison 2

Tomichi Ck at Sargents

Cochetopa Ck bl Rock Ck nr Parlin

JUN-JUL 6.8 9.2 11 52% 13 16.2 21

APR-JUL 72 78 82 85% 86 92 97

JUN-JUL 38 44 48 73% 52 58 66

APR-JUL 31 33 35 65% 37 40 54

JUN-JUL 3.1 5.2 7 38% 9 12.5 18.4

APR-JUL 120 129 136 83% 143 154 163

JUN-JUL 59 68 75 68% 82 93 110

APR-JUL 196 215 230 84% 240 260 275

JUN-JUL 96 115 128 69% 141 160 185

APR-JUL 176 205 225 67% 245 275 335

JUN-JUL 60 90 110 52% 130 160 210

APR-JUL 890 985 1040 74% 1100 1200 1400

JUN-JUL 345 440 500 60% 560 655 840

APR-JUL 76 86 94 68% 102 116 139

JUN-JUL 27 37 45 51% 53 67 89

APR-JUL 300 340 370 54% 400 440 690

JUN-JUL 103 146 175 38% 205 245 455

APR-JUL 1210 1350 1440 61% 1530 1670 2350

JUN-JUL 430 570 660 46% 755 890 1420






SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

APR-JUL 4.4 5.8 6.7 46% 7.6 9 14.5

APR-SEP 5.2 7 8.3 47% 9.6 11.4 17.8

JUN-JUL 2.1 3.5 4.4 44% 5.3 6.7 10

JUN-SEP 2.9 4.7 6 45% 7.3 9.1 13.2

APR-JUL 28 32 34 71% 37 40 48

APR-SEP 34 39 43 70% 46 52 61

JUN-JUL 17.4 21 23 68% 26 29 34

JUN-SEP 23 28 32 70% 35 41 46

APR-JUL 29 33 35 70% 37 41 50

APR-SEP 35 41 44 69% 48 53 64

JUN-JUL 18.3 22 24 69% 26 30 35

JUN-SEP 24 30 33 69% 37 42 48

APR-JUL 45 52 57 57% 62 68 100

APR-SEP 55 65 73 58% 80 91 126

JUN-JUL 26 33 38 62% 43 49 61

JUN-SEP 36 46 54 61% 61 72 88

APR-JUL 75 85 92 51% 99 109 180

APR-SEP 96 111 122 54% 133 148 225

JUN-JUL 41 51 58 55% 65 75 106

JUN-SEP 62 77 88 58% 99 114 153

APR-JUL 3.9 5 5.7 35% 6.5 7.5 16.4

APR-SEP 5.4 7.3 8.6 41% 9.9 11.8 21

JUN-JUL 1.46 2.5 3.2 36% 4 5 8.8

JUN-SEP 2.9 4.8 6.1 45% 7.4 9.3 13.5

South Platte R at South Platte2

Bear Ck ab Evergreen

Roaring Fk at Glenwood Springs2

Colorado R nr Cameo 2

Antero Reservoir Inflow2

Spinney Mountain Reservoir Inflow2

Elevenmile Canyon Reservoir Inflow2

Cheesman Lake Inflow2

Wolford Mtn Reservoir Inflow

Dillon Reservoir Inflow2

Green Mountain Reservoir Inflow2

Eagle R bl Gypsum 2

Colorado R nr Dotsero 2

Ruedi Reservoir Inflow 2

Williams Fk bl Williams Fk Reservoir2

APR-JUL 73 82 89 85% 96 105 105

APR-SEP 83 98 108 84% 117 132 128

JUN-JUL 44 53 60 79% 67 76 76

JUN-SEP 54 69 79 79% 88 103 100

JUN-JUL 34 40 44 76% 49 55 58

JUN-SEP 42 51 57 78% 63 71 73

JUN-JUL 23 28 31 86% 34 38 36

JUN-SEP 29 34 38 84% 42 48 45

APR-JUL 26 29 31 79% 33 36 39

APR-SEP 28 32 35 81% 37 41 43

JUN-JUL 13.4 16.2 18.1 79% 20 23 23

JUN-SEP 15.4 19.1 22 81% 24 28 27

JUN-JUL 34 42 47 75% 53 61 63

JUN-SEP 42 55 64 80% 72 85 80

JUN-JUL 77 94 106 74% 118 135 143

JUN-SEP 91 113 127 77% 142 164 165






YAMPA-WHITE-NORTH PLATTE

RIVER BASINS

Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

JUN-JUL 30 56 74 60% 92 118 123

JUN-SEP 39 70 90 62% 111 141 146

JUN-JUL 23 37 46 65% 56 70 71

JUN-SEP 29 44 55 67% 65 81 82

APR-JUL 13.3 14.6 16.9 73% 19.2 23 23

JUN-JUL 2.4 3.7 6 70% 8.3 11.6 8.6

APR-JUL 171 188 200 77% 210 230 260

JUN-JUL 14.5 32 44 37% 56 74 119

APR-JUL 205 235 250 78% 270 295 320

JUN-JUL 36 62 79 50% 97 122 159

APR-JUL 37 37 38 52% 43 49 73

JUN-JUL 0.88 1.3 2.2 21% 6.5 12.8 10.4

APR-JUL 520 575 615 66% 655 710 935

JUN-JUL 61 117 156 40% 195 250 390

APR-JUL 85 89 98 63% 109 126 156

JUN-JUL 8.4 12 21 32% 32 49 66

APR-JUL 125 129 138 40% 158 187 345

JUN-JUL 8.4 12 21 16% 41 70 135

APR-JUL 117 127 139 40% 155 185 345

JUN-JUL 2.3 12.8 25 19% 41 71 134

APR-JUL 121 131 145 52% 159 180 280

White R nr Meeker

Elk R nr Milner

Elkhead Ck ab Long Gulch

Yampa R nr Maybell2

Little Snake R nr Slater2

Little Snake R nr Dixon2

Little Snake R nr Lily2

Big Thompson R at Canyon Mouth2

Cache La Poudre at Canyon Mouth2

North Platte R nr Northgate

Laramie R nr Woods2

Yampa R ab Stagecoach Reservoir 2

Yampa R at Steamboat Springs2

Clear Ck at Golden

St. Vrain Ck at Lyons2

Boulder Ck nr Orodell2

South Boulder Ck nr Eldorado Springs2

JUN-JUL 16 26 40 28% 54 75 144






ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

APR-JUL 8.3 10.6 12.4 59% 14.5 18.1 21

APR-SEP 9.2 12.3 14.8 57% 17.8 23 26

JUN-JUL 3 5.3 7.1 44% 9.2 12.8 16.3

JUN-SEP 3.9 7 9.5 45% 12.5 17.7 21

APR-JUL 110 131 149 62% 169 200 240

APR-SEP 123 155 180 61% 210 260 295

JUN-JUL 41 62 80 46% 100 133 174

JUN-SEP 54 86 111 48% 141 191 230

APR-JUL 1.08 1.23 1.78 11% 2.7 4.9 15.9

APR-SEP 1.08 1.46 2.3 12% 3.6 6.3 19.6

JUN-JUL 0 0.15 0.7 8% 1.66 3.8 8.3

JUN-SEP 0 0.38 1.22 10% 2.5 5.2 12

APR-JUL 143 170 192 53% 215 260 360

APR-SEP 174 215 250 55% 285 350 455

JUN-JUL 52 79 101 42% 126 167 240

JUN-SEP 83 124 159 47% 194 260 335

APR-JUL 1.83 2.3 2.8 24% 3.4 4.5 11.9

APR-SEP 2.1 2.8 3.5 23% 4.4 5.9 15.2

JUN-JUL 0.3 0.81 1.3 18% 1.91 3 7.1

JUN-SEP 0.57 1.27 1.97 19% 2.9 4.4 10.4

APR-JUL 0.96 1.22 1.52 12% 1.91 2.7 12.2

APR-SEP 1.33 1.84 2.3 16% 2.8 3.8 14.1

JUN-JUL 0.07 0.33 0.63 11% 1.02 1.76 6

JUN-SEP 0.44 0.95 1.41 18% 1.91 2.9 7.8

MAR-JUL 4.1 5.1 6.3 17% 7.9 11 37

APR-SEP 3 4.6 6.5 14% 9.1 14 47

JUN-JUL 0.15 1.13 2.3 12% 3.9 7 19.4

JUN-SEP 0.27 1.87 3.8 12% 6.4 11.3 31






UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

APR-JUL 41 45 48 42% 51 57 113

APR-SEP 44 50 54 42% 59 68 129

JUN-JUL 9.3 13.4 16.6 24% 20 26 68

JUN-SEP 12.6 18.5 23 27% 28 37 84

APR-SEP 116 132 145 43% 158 181 340

JUN-SEP 38 54 67 32% 80 103 210

APR-SEP 55 58 60 47% 62 67 127

JUN-SEP 7.1 10.1 12.4 19% 15 19.3 65

Cucharas R nr La Veta

Trinidad Lake Inflow2

Rio Grande at Thirty Mile Bridge2

Rio Grande at Wagon Wheel Gap2

SF Rio Grande at South Fork2

Rio Grande nr Del Norte 2

Chalk Ck nr Nathrop

Arkansas R at Salida2

Grape Ck nr Westcliffe

Pueblo Reservoir Inflow2

Huerfano R nr Redwing

APR-SEP 151 188 215 42% 240 275 515

JUN-SEP 16.2 53 78 26% 103 140 305

APR-SEP 8.5 10.5 12.2 38% 14.2 17.7 32

JUN-SEP 2.5 4.5 6.2 31% 8.2 11.7 20

APR-SEP 32 34 36 53% 38 42 68

JUN-SEP 4.3 6.7 8.7 23% 10.9 14.6 38

MAR-JUL 3.2 3.4 3.7 42% 4 4.6 8.9

JUN-JUL 0.1 0.34 0.58 25% 0.89 1.46 2.3

APR-SEP 2.1 2.6 3 24% 3.4 4.1 12.6

JUN-SEP 1.04 1.54 1.94 25% 2.4 3.1 7.8

APR-SEP 0.85 1 1.27 8% 1.69 2.5 16.3

JUN-SEP 0 0.15 0.42 8% 0.84 1.7 5

APR-SEP 1.28 2 2.7 21% 3.6 5.1 12.8

JUN-SEP 0.49 1.24 1.94 24% 2.8 4.3 8

APR-JUL 27 29 31 55% 33 35 56

APR-SEP 28 31 33 53% 35 39 62

JUN-JUL 4.6 6.5 8.1 23% 9.7 12.5 35

JUN-SEP 5.3 7.9 10 24% 12.3 16.2 41

APR-SEP 92 100 107 55% 114 127 194

JUN-SEP 15.9 24 31 28% 38 51 112

APR-SEP 3.1 3.1 3.2 21% 3.2 3.4 15.6

JUN-SEP 0 0 0.05 4% 0.13 0.34 1.25

APR-SEP 28 28 29 40% 32 37 73

JUN-SEP 0.88 1.4 2.2 9% 5.5 10.2 24

APR-SEP 1.67 3.3 4.8 21% 6.8 10.4 23

JUN-SEP 0.85 2.5 4 27% 6 9.6 14.9

MAR-JUL 2.2 2.4 2.6 23% 2.8 3.2 11.1

JUN-JUL 0.37 0.59 0.77 15% 0.98 1.32 5.3

MAR-JUL 4.2 4.5 4.7 18% 5 5.6 26

JUN-JUL 0.15 0.41 0.66 7% 0.97 1.54 9.9






SAN MIGUEL-DOLORES-ANIMAS-

SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS

Forecast

Period

90%

(KAF)

70%

(KAF)

50%

(KAF)% Avg

30%

(KAF)

10%

(KAF)

30yr Avg

(KAF)

APR-JUL 37 40 44 18% 48 55 245

JUN-JUL 3.1 6.7 10 11% 13.9 21 92

APR-JUL 41 42 43 15% 55 71 295

JUN-JUL 9 10 11 11% 23 39 97

APR-JUL 26 32 37 29% 43 53 128

JUN-JUL 6.2 12 17 23% 23 33 75

JUN-JUL 0.07 0.19 0.3 19% 0.44 0.69 1.59

JUN-JUL 0.15 0.57 1 18% 1.55 2.6 5.6

JUN-JUL 0.01 0.1 0.2 16% 0.34 0.6 1.28

Lilylands Reservoir Inlet

Rio Blanco at Blanco Diversion 2

Costilla Ck nr Costilla 2

Dolores R at Dolores

McPhee Reservoir Inflow

San Miguel R nr Placerville

Cone Reservoir Inlet

Gurley Reservoir Inlet

Platoro Reservoir Inflow

Conejos R nr Mogote 2

San Antonio R at Ortiz

Los Pinos R nr Ortiz

Culebra Ck at San Luis

Costilla Reservoir Inflow

Saguache Ck nr Saguache

Alamosa Ck ab Terrace Reservoir

La Jara Ck nr Capulin

Trinchera Ck ab Turners Ranch

Sangre de Cristo Ck 2

Ute Ck nr Fort Garland

APR-JUL 19 21 22 41% 24 28 54

JUN-JUL 1.17 2.9 4.4 19% 6.4 9.8 23

APR-JUL 23 26 28 43% 30 35 65

JUN-JUL 2.5 4.9 6.9 23% 9.4 13.6 30

APR-JUL 112 118 123 32% 142 169 380

JUN-JUL 6.5 12 17.2 11% 36 63 158

APR-JUL 43 46 49 23% 56 67 210

JUN-JUL 4 7 10 14% 17.2 28 74

APR-JUL 49 54 58 30% 68 84 194

JUN-JUL 5.6 10 14 14% 24 40 99

APR-JUL 164 168 174 24% 205 250 735

JUN-JUL 6 10 16 6% 48 94 290

APR-JUL 88 102 112 27% 128 151 415

JUN-JUL 16 30 40 18% 56 79 220

APR-JUL 12.2 12.6 14.6 27% 17.1 21 55

JUN-JUL 1.6 2 4 15% 6.5 10.2 27

APR-JUL 3.3 3.6 3.9 17% 4.3 4.9 23

JUN-JUL 0.36 0.7 1 12% 1.35 1.96 8.5

APR-JUL 5.3 5.7 6.3 20% 7 8.5 31

JUN-JUL 0.05 0.47 1 10% 1.73 3.2 10.4




Navajo Reservoir Inflow 2

Animas R at Durango

Lemon Reservoir Inflow

La Plata R at Hesperus

Mancos R nr Mancos 2

Navajo R at Oso Diversion 2

San Juan R nr Carracas 2

Piedra R nr Arboles

Vallecito Reservoir Inflow

report created: streamflow forecast summary: june 1, 2018 … · jun-jul 11 13 15.8 24% 20 26 65...

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