rekindling the future - india pakistan economic relations

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BUSINESS DIGEST A time to rekindle the future The India show goes to Lahore VOL. NO. 8 ISSUE NO. 11 FEBRUARY 2012

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A story on the subject from the February issue of the Business Digest published by FICCI.

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Page 1: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

BUSINESS DIGEST

A time to rekindle the future

The India show goes to Lahore

VOL. NO. 8 ISSUE NO. 11 FEBRUARY 2012

Page 2: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

2 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012

Insi

de…

Cover Story:

» The ‘India Show’ goes to Lahore

» Benefits of two-way trade

» Potential areas of cooperation

14

4

6

Chairman

Dr. Rajiv Kumar

Editor

Meera Kumar

Managing Editor

Sukumar Sah

Advertising & Circulation

Animesh Goswami

PL Joseph

Veena Srivastava

Rahul Siwach

Dinesh Bhandari

Design & Art

www.seemasethidesign.com

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Particulars about the Journal (FICCI

Business Digest) required to be

published under Rule 8 of the

Registrar Central Rules, 1956.

Printed and Published by Secretary

General on behalf of (or owned by)

Federation of Indian Chambers of

Commerce and Industry, New Delhi

and Published at Federation House

Tansen Marg, New Delhi - 110001

R.N.I No. DELENG/2004/13722

Federation of Indian Chambers

of Commerce and Industry, FICCI,

Federation House, Tansen Marg,

New Delhi - 110001

Phone: 23738760-70 (11 Lines)

Fax: 23320714, 23721504

E-Mail: [email protected],

Website: www.ficci.com

Secretary General’s Message

Fiscal viability, delivery outcomes of Food Subsidy Bill in doubt

500 million Indians will need new homes in urban areas by 2025:

FICCI Report

Gradual shift in global economic power

‘Introduce National Policy on Railways’

Financing of PPPs, major challenge for banks: FICCI-E&Y Paper

Ashwani Kumar for ‘frugal innovation’ to produce quality

products cheaply

Financial literacy for retail investors vital

India should stay on reforms course, says Financial Times’ Martin Wolf

NDMA concern at capability to deal with chemical and biological

disasters

Threat perception of chemical, bio-terrorism is high: Gen. Vij

Promoting safe use of industrial chemicals

Macro-economic indicators

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40

3837

WE LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR FEEDBACK

We would like your feedback/comments to enable us to improve our offering. Write to us at: [email protected] or [email protected]

BUSINESS DIGEST

A time to rekindle the future

The India show goes to Lahore

VOL. NO. 8 ISSUE NO. 11 FEBRUARY 2012

For Advertising, please write to: publications@�cci.com

Page 3: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

Dear Reader,

Our special feature in this issue focuses on FICCI’s leading priority,

which is to contribute to improving India-Pakistan relations and

economic ties. As a part of this FICCI organized the ‘India Show’ at

Lahore and took a delegation of about 100 businessmen to Lahore,

Karachi and Islamabad. �e e�ort is helping the two neighbours to

recognize their enormous potential and the bene�ts of collaboration.

�e delegation was led by Minister of Commerce, Anand Sharma.

Both countries are coming to recognize that India Pakistan trade

amounts to less than 1 per cent of their respective global trade, a

travesty when the potential for bilateral trade between the two countries

is tremendous. We were somewhat disappointed that contrary to our

expectations, the Pakistan cabinet shelved the decision to phase out the

positive list and replace it with a negative list as the basis for conducting

bilateral trade. But this disappointment has since given way to strong

optimism with the announcement late February by the Pakistan

government to adopt this historical step and to move to a full-�edged

MFN based trade regime with India by the end of the year. FICCI’s

e�orts will stand vindicated once the two countries begin to trade,

invest and allow movement of persons across each other’s borders as

any other neighbors are expected to do.

To move to another vitally important subject, here are some stark facts

- by 2025 nearly 500 million Indians will need new, urban homes, close

to the needs of China, North America and Western Europe combined.

India’s population is slated to grow to 1.7 billion by 2050 and rapid

urbanization will add nearly 900 million people to its cities.

City capacity will need to grow nearly 400 per cent in less than 50 years.

�is is the scale of urbanization and urban infrastructure needs India

has to contend with. We present some interesting perspectives on this

matter in this issue.

You can also read Martin Wolf ’s views regarding the lessons India

should learn from the European crisis in forming its own policies.

Martin Wolf, renowned commentator of the Financial Times suggests

two big lessons; his lecture at FICCI was very well received – you will

enjoy reading the conclusions he draws for India.

We also bring you President Kanoria’s article on how businesses and

national governments are coping with the gradual shi� in global

economic power which appeared in �e Economic Times of February

9, 2012. �is issue also carries an excerpted article authored by me and

Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh on the pitfalls of the food subsidy program on

which our government has embarked in full measure.

We at FICCI would be delighted to get your feedback.

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Dr. Rajiv Kumar

4 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012

Page 4: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

The ‘India Show’ goes to Lahore

Rekindling The Future

February 13, 2012 will go down in the history of India-Pakistan relations as the day

when commerce scored over politics; a day when the business leaders of both nations embraced one another; when Indian CEOs walked the extra mile right through the Attari-Wagah border their Commerce Minister, breaking down, as it were, the ‘Berlin Wall of Asia’.

India-Pakistan trade has historically been low due to decades of hostilities and mistrust between the two countries; currently the trade volume is stagnating at US$ 2.7 billion. �is is surely set to change; the US$ 6 billion trade target by 2014 seems within grasp.

More than 120 Indian business leaders visited Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad from February 13-15 to participate in meetings organized by the Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry which were addressed by the Commerce Ministers of India and Pakistan and Presidents of FICCI and CII.

FICCI in association with the India’s Commerce and Industry Ministry, and with the support of Commerce Ministry of Pakistan organized the �rst ever exhibition of Indian products in Pakistan (Lahore) at the Lahore Expo Centre from February 11-13, 2012. �e India Show was inaugurated by Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Senior Federal Minister for Commerce, Government of Pakistan. Fi�y six Indian companies put up 110 stalls showcasing India’s accomplishments in sectors such as agricultural machinery and farm equipments, automobile components, apparels, consumer durables, tea, co�ee, herbal products, home appliances and gems and jewellery.�e three-day exhibition saw footfalls of more than 60,000, with a large number of Pakistani people truning up religiously for the show every day.

Indian exhibitors were overw-helmed by the response to their stalls. Many exhibitors who had got limited samples for display gave them away as a goodwill gesture to the visitors at their stalls. Some did brisk business like the water puri�er maker, Kent, which received several queries and is

�e popular sentiment voiced by the business community in Pakistan is in favour of opening borders to promote peace. A majority of the chambers of commerce of Pakistan have conveyed to the Pakistan Government that it is time to put in place a liberal trade regime. 

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14 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012

Anand Sharma, India’s Commerce & Industry and Textiles (2nd from right) with Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Pakistan’s Senior fedral Minister for Commerce, at the ‘India Show’ in Lahore.

Page 5: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

now exploring the possibility of tying up with local distributors and dealers in Pakistan to market its goods.

Anand Sharma, Indian Commerce, Industry and Textiles Minister, presided over the closing function of the India Show. FICCI President, R V Kanoria, addressing the gath-ering on this occasion expressed optimism about the interest that this historic visit would generate and the gains that both the countries would

accrue from it. He also said that the India Show at Lahore had kicked o� a new phase in the trade and economic engagements of India and Pakistan and that the visit would consolidate people-to-people exchanges between the two countries. �e Indian Com-merce Minister along with senior business leaders from India including FICCI President called on the Governors and Chief Ministers of Punjab and Sind.

Top Five Export Items from India to Pakistan (Figure In USD Million)

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India

S. No. HS Code Commodity 2009-2010 2010-11

1 17 Sugars and Sugar 1.07 654.01 Confectionary

2 52 Cotton 242.77 401.82

3 29 Organic Chemicals 308.29 273.78

4 54 Man-made Filaments 419.78 234

5 7 Edible Vegetables and 59.85 74.05 Certain Roots and Tubers

Former FICCI President, Rajan Bharti Mittal, expressed deep satisfaction over the “historic’ visit and emphasized the need to introduce a more liberal visa regime. “A businessman can’t function with a city speci�c visa that does not allow him to visit more than one city. While it is alright to have a more restrictive visa regime due to security reasons, in the case of businessman there is a strong case for easing rules to promote trade and commerce,” he observed.

FICCI President, R V Kanoria felt that India has to be more accommodating with Pakistan in importing goods such as cement in which Pakistan has a compataive advantage so that the trade imbalance against Pakistan is reduced.

�e popular sentiment voiced by the business community in Pakistan is in favour of opening borders to promote peace. A majority of the chambers of commerce of Pakistan have conveyed to the Pakistan Government that it is time to put in place a liberal trade regime. �e focus must shi�ed to direct trade between the two countries.

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February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 15

R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI, presenting a memento to Makhdoom Amin Fahim. Anand Sharma (le!) looks on.

Page 6: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

A Pakistani businessmen trading with the Indian Oil Corporation pointed out that there was demand of 30,000 million tons of petrochemicals per month from Pakistan which could increase three-fold if trade is allowed in this commodity through the Wagah Border.

It’s interesting to note that info-rmal trade, including third country trade, between India and Pakistan is estimated at USD 10 billion while the formal trade is only about US$ 3 billion. Trade through third countries or the circular trade is mainly conducted through agents operating in free ports like Dubai or Singapore and the Central Asian Republic (CAR) countries.

�e fact that a large number of items are traded between India and Pakistan through informal channels presents the case for potential increase in bilateral trade. �e informal trade between the two countries mainly takes place through two routes: One is smuggling across the borders and other is through a more circuitous route, involving a third country. Informal trade happens in goods that are not on Pakistan’s positive list and hence cannot be imported legally (Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, jewellery) and have a high import tari� in Pakistan (e.g. betel leaves and tractor tyres. Estimates of informal trade vary from US$ 500 million to �ve times the size of the formal trade. �e main items of import from India are cloth, tires, pharmaceutical and textile machinery, cosmetics, livestock and medicines. �ey acco-unt for roughly 80 per cent of the total import value.

Top Five Import Items from Pakistan to India (Figure In USD Million)

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India

S. No. HS Code Commodity 2009-2010 2010-11

1 8 Edible Fruit and Nuts; Peel or Citrus Fruit or Melons 46.41 62.98 2 27 Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils and Products of their Distillation, 9.55 56.99 Bituminous Substances, Mineral Waxes

3 25 Salt; Sulphur; Earths and Stone; Plastering Materials; 42.58 40.43 Lime and Cement

4 29 Organic Chemicals 47.01 32.67

5 52 Cotton 39.1 22.24

A long standing demand of India which has been accepted by the Pakistani establishment is the easy availability of visas and easing people to people contact. In a Joint Statement issued at Islamabad at the conclusion of the o!cial level bilateral talks, the Commerce Ministers of India and Pakistan said that it has been decided, in principle, to give multiple visas to businessmen and modalities are being worked out. Agreements are also being framed on cooperation and mutual assistance in customs matters, bilateral cooperation on mutual recognition between Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority and Bureau of Indian Standards and Redressal of Trade Grievances between Pakistan and India.

India-Pakistan trade has historically been low due to decades of hostilities and mistrust between the two countries; currently the trade volume is stagnating at US$ 2.7 billion. �is is surely set to change; the US$ 6 billion trade target by 2014 seems within grasp.

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16 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012

Indian business leaders with Commerce Ministers of India and Pakistan.

Page 7: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

While Pakistan’s informal exports mainly consists of textiles, 88 per cent of these trades are routed through third countries. �e main implications of informal trade are: loss of revenue for the exchequer and increased cost for the consumers. �e cost of transportation goes up by 1.4 to 1.7 times when the indirect route Mumbai- Dubai-Karachi is used instead of the direct route Mumbai – Karachi. �is is a clear indication that Pakistan should open up its trade with India. �e major routes for informal trades are from Dubai, Singapore and Afghanistan.

In the area of infrastructure and issues of connectivity to boost trade and commerce, important items in FICCI’s wish list, the Indian Commerce Minister hoped that the construction of an integrated check-post at the Wagah – Attari Border would be complete and ready by April this year.  Earlier, it was expected to be completed by February.  It is estimated that the new gate which leads to the integrated check-post at Wagah would help increase the number of trucks transporting goods through Wagah – Attari from the current 100-150 to 500 – 600. India and Pakistan are also in talks discussing opening another trade route in the Munabao - Khokrapar route. A Joint Working Group is examining the feasibility of the new trading point. Any increase in trade through the land route will have spin-o� e�ects on the infrastructure

and incomes of people, besides facilitating the development of cold chains, warehouses and logistics in the border areas like which can immensely transform the region.

Pakistan does not have restriction on Indian investments whereas India does not have FDI from Pakistan at present. According to Anand Sharma, India is actively contemplating changes in the foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) to all foreign direct investment from Pakistan.

As India and Pakistan compete to sell their goods in the global market, there are many areas in which both the countries can complement each other’s needs and hence

Reduction in Cost if imported from India

Source: FICCI Survey (2009)

Sector Pakistan’s Cost Reduction if Imported from India (in per cent)

Steel 55

Transport Equipment 26

Engineering Goods 15

Bicycles 20

Pharmaceuticals 35

Fruits & Vegetables 40

Sugar 30

produce cost-e�ective quality goods. �e Board of Investment has indicated that Pakistan has so far made bila-teral investment agreements with 46 countries (except India) during the period from 1959 to 2004. Currently, there is no joint venture between India and Pakistan despite of a strong business interest on both sides due to the absence of an enabling environment for such investment. For example, there are no institutional mechanisms for bilateral investment guarantees. �ere is considerable lack of information and awareness about each other’s trade regime, commercial policies and business and regulatory procedures.

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February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 17

L to R: B. Muthuraman, President, CII; Partap Singh Bajwa, Member of Parliament; Anand Sharma, India’s Commerce & Industry and Textiles; Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Pakistan’s Senior Federal Minister for Commerce; Javed Akhtar Bhatti, President, Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce and R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI.

Page 8: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

Potential Joint Ventures between India and Pakistan

SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry has identi�ed investment possibilities in Pakistan in sectors such as �sh processing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, automobile components and information technology.

A study commissioned by FICCI jointly with SAARC Chamber of Commerce & Industry and formu-lated by Tata Economic Consu-ltancy Services outlines the industrial in-vestment opportunities & scope for joint venture in SAARC Countries.

�e potential Joint ventures identi�ed between India and Pakistan are the following:

Industry Group Project Focus

Information Software Exports Training Centre / Center for Software Training & Management (CSTM) SoftwareTechnology (IT) Development Center (SDC). Pakistan has the potential to become an important software exporting and training center. India can become a role model & both the countries should co-operate & collaborate to tap the large global market for software.

Fish Processing Processed Frozen / Canned Fish Products Future thrust should be on valve added canned products exports to the developed countries

Drugs and Bulk DrugsPharmaceuticals Expansion of formulation sector (tablets, capsules, ointment, injections etc.). Expansion of health care products (IV fluids, disposable syringes, diagnostic kits etc.). Indian pharma industry can provide the necessary support & assistance to Pakistan for the expansion of its Industry.

Agro-Chemicals A pesticides manufacturing Unit in Pakistan. With the expansion of agri business, demand for agro chemicals will grow in future. Indian major players can play an important role through transfer of technology.

Chemicals Dyes and pigments manufacturing unit in Pakistan Pakistan has a strong manufacturing base for textiles and leather. Indian players and multinationals can assist Pakistan in developing the sector.

Automobile Integrated auto component complex.Ancillary Next to India, Pakistan is the only country in the SAARC Region to Manufacture & Assemble Passenger Cars. Pakistan may also consider Assembly of HCV & LCV in collaboration with Tata Motors / Ashok Leyland from India.

Light Engineering L P G cylinder manufacturing unit in Pakistan Technology can be sourced from India. Scope for Inclusion of cylinders for Industrial Gases.

Leather Manufacturing complex for a variety of value addedprocessing Leather Footwearcomplex: value Leather Garmentsadded products Leather Bagsfor exports Pakistan & India should cooperate to Tap the Global Market and expand Market Share.

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18 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012

Vikramjit Sahney, President, SAARC Chamber of Commerce & Industry addressing a business meeting in Karachi.

Page 9: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

India’s initiative found a more than adequate resonance in the Pakistani establishment. With the recent announcement by Pakistan of a negative list of items importable from India and its commitment to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India by the end of this year, quite suddenly the prospects of reaping the advantages from the SAFTA agreement have brightened.

Comparison with other SAARC Countries

Source: WDI & Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India

Country Population (in million) 2010 est. GDP, PPP (constant 2005 Total Trade with India in billion international $) 2010-11 (in USD billion)

Bangladesh 148.69 221 (2010 est.) 4.05

Sri Lanka 20.86 95 (2010 est.) 4.54

Pakistan 173.59 419 (2010 est.) 2.67

Benefits of two-way trade

India Pakistan trade amounts to less than 1 per cent of their respective global trade. However, the volumes of third country trade and informal trade indicate the tremendous potential for bilateral trade between the two countries. Several restrictions on official trade compel both the countries to import certain goods from far off sources, which they can easily import from each other. India Pakistan trade would ensure cheaper raw materials and low transportation and insurance cost which would translate into quality goods at competitive prices for both the countries. While consumers would gain in terms of lower prices, higher purchasing power and greater choice of traded goods; manufacturers will have access to the wider markets in the neighbourhood. The Government would have revenue gains by bringing informal trade into the formal channel. Ultimately, this would result in a win-win situation for everyone.

�e sentiment today on both sides of the border is optimistic, one that give gives rise to anticipation and hope of rekindling the future.

Agriculture: India and Pakistan, both agrarian economies, could cooperate in agricultural sector which is a major component of GDP and largest employment generating sector in either country. �e food and agri- business industry has a signi�cant impact on the regional economy. �is industry has one of the highest economic multiplier e�ects among the various industries even ahead of telecom or power. Liberalized India-Pakistan trade in agro sector would give further boost to employment generation in both the countries. �e recent export of sugar, onion, tomato, fresh meat and live animals from India to Pakistan helped Pakistan to overcome short-term #uctuations in supply.

Trade in agriculture between India and Pakistan till date has been crisis driven. However, if a robust regulatory mechanism is put in place in both the countries, agriculture trade could well become market driven. Integration of markets across the border would have a favorable impact on agriculture trade as it shall even out #uctuations in supply, moderate prices and provide a wider basket of agricultural goods for consumption.

Cement: �ere has been sharp increase of export of cement from Pakistan to India in recent past because of the increasing demand in India. �is is due to the boom in the housing and construction sector. Rising trade in cement is win-win situation for both countries and will help Pakistan to reduce its trade de�cit with India. Engineering Industry: Trade libera-lization with India especially for iron ore which is an important raw material for steel industries will place the engineering goods industry of Pakistan at a signi�cant advantage by bringing down prices of steel and that of �nished engineering goods. At present, Pakistan imports basic raw material, iron ore, at a high cost from Brazil and Australia.

Transport Equipment: As a conse-quence of high protection provided to domestic auto assemblers (two & four wheelers) prices paid by Pakistan consumers are substantially higher than comparable prices internationally. Bicycle is another category where Indian products could impact the Pakistan market

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February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 19

Potential Areas of Cooperation

Page 10: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

particularly if tari�s were to be lowered. India’s comparative advan-tage lies in its lower steel price together with scale economies.

Tea: Pakistan has recently emerged as the largest market for exports of Indian tea. India’s share of Pakistani tea market has increased in recent times, however still remains low. Pakistan has been sourcing most of its tea from Kenya. �ere is immense potential for Indian tea in the Pakistani tea market.

Pharmaceutical: Considering that Indian pharmaceutical products are cheaper than Pakistani products, it would certainly make a di�erence to the common citizen in Pakistan. In turn, this would help Indian pharmaceutical products including bulk drugs and formulation to sell in large volumes in geographically proximate markets besides impacting positively on industrial growth.

Textile Machinery: In Pakistan, there is no high-tech textile machinery industry. �e opening of trade with India would help Pakistan to acquire this machinery directly at much lower prices rather than high cost machinery from Germany. Recently, Pakistan has allowed the imports of Textile Machinery from India. However, all categories of Textile Machinery and its components are still not allowed.

Chemicals: Import of cheaper chemicals and dyes from India

can particularly help to enhance competitiveness of its leading export sectors i.e. textile and leather.

Plastics: Pakistan’s plastic products could dominate Indian market but for that high cost. �is is largely due to the machinery imported by this industry from Taiwan, Korea and Germany. �is machinery can be made available from India at competitive rates.

Textiles: Pakistan has competitive advantage in cotton textile products which need to be revitalized. India, on the other hand, has an upper hand in silk and other synthetic �bre. �e opening up of trade will help Pakistan to acquire textile chemicals and other inputs at cheaper rates and thus to make their products more competitive in international market.

Petroleum Products: As of now, Pakistan has banned imports of Indian petrol. �ough it allowed diesel imports in 2009, due to preferential prices o�ered by Pakistan’s allies such as Kuwait, supplies from India did not really take o�.

However, India has o�ered to export petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel, fuel oil, besides sulphur, polyethylene and polypropylene to the neighbour. Pakistan is currently importing these products from other countries. Imports from India will be advantageous for Pakistan as it will be saving on the freight cost since several Indian re�neries are located close to the India-Pakistan border. �e re�ners who will bene�t include Indian Oil Corporation, Reliance Industries, Essar Oil, and the soon to be fully commissioned re�nery at Bhatinda.

Information Technology: India has established itself as a major player in the information technology segment. �e so�ware industry in Pakistan is still in its nascent stages though it has a huge potential to emerge as a major so�ware exporting and training centre. India and Pakistan could enter into joint ventures to tap the global market for so�ware. �e prospects for success in this sector seem to be good. As the basis of India’s comparative advantage in IT – low cost and quali�ed English-

Trade in agriculture between India and Pakistan till date has been crisis driven. However, if a robust regulatory mechanism is put in place in both countries, agriculture trade could well become market driven.

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20 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012

R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI, addressing a business meeting.

Page 11: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

speaking technical personnel – is replicable in Pakistan. In terms of infrastructure requirements on Pakistan too, the IT sector is relatively less demanding, both in terms of sheer scale of investment and challenges of security management.

�e Indian IT training market has also grown signi�cantly. Several training institutions such as NIIT, APTECH and SSI have set up training centers in many countries including South Asian countries. India and Pakistan could enter into collaborative arrangements to set up training institutes in Pakistan which would enable enlarge the technical workforce in Pakistan).

Tourism: Tourism holds immense potential for the two countries. A liberal visa regime as well as improved transport linkages would go a long way in improving tourism between the two nations

Health: Pakistani patients could also come to India for treatment. Easing visa restrictions would greatly help Pakistanis to come for treatment. So far, only a handful of Pakistani patients have visited India for treatment. Removal of visa restrictions for patients, and for doctors would greatly facilitate such trade.

Entertainment: �e common culture and language between India and Pakistan facilitate immense opportunities for trade and coope-ration in the �lm, television and music sector. �is potential in the

entertainment industry can be tapped by encouraging joint productions. Removing the ban on screening movies would bene�t both countries. Exchanging broadcasting rights to telecast each other’s programmes on television is yet another trade opportunity for the two countries. Removal of visa restrictions would encourage individuals to participate in each other’s entertainment industries.

�e Energy Bene!t: �e greatest economic bene�t of trade relations between India and Pakistan would occur in the sphere of energy cooperation. India is one of the most rapidly growing energy markets in the world and will be able to absorb new sources of supply as they materialize in the region. Pakistan’s potential role in ful�lling this need is not as a supplier but as a potential transit route for energy from Iran and Central Asia. �is would require construction of one or more new pipelines, a major capital investment that makes sense only if the political stability and economic feasibility of the project can be counted on.

�e economics look very promising. �e two major proj-ects under consideration for a very long period of time are the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline and Turkeministan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. �e TAPI pipeline project is approximately pegged at a cost of USD 7.6 billion. As per the latest arrangement agreed on - India will pay transit fee to Pakistan and

Afghanistan to get its share of 38 million standard cubic meters a day of gas through the pipeline, while Islamabad will pay ferrying charges to Afghanistan.

Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project is a 2700 km pipeline from Iran’s South Pars �elds in the Persian Gulf to Pakistan’s major cities of Karachi and Multan and then further to Delhi, India. Iran is o�ering to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline. A land-based pipeline would be four times cheaper than any other option, even a�er taking into account transit fee payments to Pakistan. Pakistan could earn transit fees from the pipeline and also would be able to purchase natural gas from the pipeline. Pakistan is expected to earn about $200-$500 million in transit fee. India would bene�t from diversi�ed sources of pipeline gas and lower dependence on more expensive liquid natural gas (LNG). Even with LNG prices dropping, industry sources believe that there would be a signi�cant cost advantage, especially to a pipeline from Iran. Both these projects present a win-win opportunity for both India and Pakistan and can go a long way in meeting the energy requirements in one of the world’s fastest growing regions. Energy cooperation between India and Pakistan would have a stabilizing e�ect on the region as a whole.

In recent times Pakistan has been facing a major power shortage, from both gas and electricity sources. In this regard India and Pakistan are considering the option of electricity trading. �e �rst meeting of the Joint Group of Experts to examine feasibility of trade of electricity was held on 20th October 2011 at New Delhi. Central Electricity Authority and Power Grid Corporation of India limited/Power System Operation Corporation Ltd have been designated as the nodal technical agencies from the Indian side. �ey are interacting with National Transmission and Dispatch Company Ltd of Pakistan to work out the optimal technical solutions for grid connectivity between both countries. A broad understanding has been reached on possible grid connectivity between Amritsar-Lahore to enable trade of up to 500 MW of power.

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February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 21

Javed Akhtar Bhatti, President, Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce presenting a memento to R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI.

Page 12: Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

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Deputy Director

Toll Free: 1800-11-3128

membershelpline@!cci.com

Federation House, 1 Tansen Marg

New Delhi 110001

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