Regional scenario development and analysis: linking qualitative and quantitative approaches

Ioannis Vasileiou, CCAFS, IFPRI Daniel Mason-d’Croz, IFPRI

Strategic Foresight Conference

IFPRI, 7 November 2014

Key Highlights

• Combined socio-economic and climate scenarios developed for six global regions: East and West Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Andes and Central America

• Stakeholder-driven; quantified through IMPACT and GLOBIOM and linked to SSPs and RCPs

• Scenarios outputs and methods, through close partnerships, are helping national, regional and global decision-makers develop better national and regional policies, investments and institutional structures

• With 240 partner organisations (..) partnering with FAO, UNEP WCMC, Oxfam, IFAD, CARIAA, WRI, WWF, ADB, regional economic bodies, regional and national stakeholders

• A number of research papers have been published; 10+papers (on results per region, methods, policy guidance pathways) in progress

The benefits of stakeholder-driven scenarios

• Decision makers are the users of scenarios – they are involved in determining the scope and purpose of the process – what is important to focus on?

• Regional expertise can highlight key issues that would not be recognized in desk studies

• Scenarios have to be credible, legitimate and salient to decision-makers – if they are involved in creating the scenarios, these goals are easier to achieve

• Scenarios are also a learning tool, training decision-makers in strategic planning and engaging with uncertainty

• Direct involvement by decision-makers in the development and testing of policies in the context of multiple scenarios makes it more likely for these plans to be robust in the face of future uncertainty

Scenarios in CCAFS: from Phase 1 to 2

• CCAFS Phase 1: Theme-based research, Region-based influence, Log frame-based planning, Output focused = Supply driven research

• CCAFS Phase 2: Flagship x region matrix, Regional priorities focused, Defined steps to impact, Outcome focused, Taking responsibility = Demand driven research

Scenarios in CCAFS Phase 2: CCAFS scenario-

guided policy and investment planning

• By 2019, at least 5 national climate-smart agriculture/food systems policies have been finalized and are being implemented that have been developed and tested against scenarios to make them more robust in the face of multiple climate/socio-economic futures (FP4 outcome indicator 1). At least 5 major regional/global organizations have used scenarios outputs and methodology in their priority setting and policy guidance (FP4 outcome indicator 2).

• In 2015, policies tested and developed in the context of the CCAFS regional scenarios in at least 4 regional/national case studies in 2014 will be revised in drafts that will be accepted and finalized, or have a concrete potential to be accepted and finalized in 2016. The Cambodian government’s CCPAP plan, signed in 2014, will be initiated with a focus on scenario-guided Climate Smart Agriculture, with support in methodology and outputs from the CCAFS scenarios project. At least 4 regional/global organizations will have used CCAFS scenarios methodology and outputs to start informing their strategic planning and priority setting processes.

Original approach: two axes

A B C D

A1 B1 C1 D1

A2 B2 C2 D2

A3 B3 C3 D3

FACTORS,STATES

COMPATIBILITY

B1 B2 B3

A1 2 0 1

A2 1 1 1

A3 2 0 2

SCENARIOS

(A2,B2,C2,D1)(A1,B3,C1,D3)

(A3,B3,C2,D3)

FINALSCENARIOS

(A2,B2,C2,D1)(A1,B3,C1,D3)

(A3,B3,C2,D3)10000s of ways

(A2,B1,C2,D1)

Choose4,6,8..

MATLAB program (OLDFAR)

Multiple factors, multiple states: Andes

In from scenarios (global = SSP2):• GDP• Population• Yields• Production costsClimate scenarios/RCPS: impacts on yields, RCP 8.5 (extreme), multiple models

Out: (iterative feedback from participants)• Yields, production, prices, demand, trade

for range of commodities• Calorie availability• Production systems• Land use• Emissions

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

Linking scenarios to SSPs and RCPs (GLOBIOM IIASA, IMPACT IFPRI)

Havlik ea 2011Rosegrant ea2013

Sugarcane yields under four climate models and “no climate change” for five socio-economic scenarios for South Asia, indexed to 2010

• A first principle of the CCAFS scenarios process is that scenario-guided planning is an on-going process that needs continuous (almost daily) collaboration between decision-makers and scenario experts with strong regional knowledge and networks.

• Regional scenarios are created as an overall context, and then each time adapted to specific national contexts and policies/investments

• In the adaptation and down-scaling of scenarios, decision-makers “re-invent” the scenarios based on the regional set, and filter them through their own scope of relevant indicators to ensure suitability for a specific decision-making process

Adapting and using scenarios for planning

Scenarios use for policy and investment guidance

Two approaches:• 1. start with plan,

develop scenarios; test across scenarios (Honduras)

• 2. Develop scenarios, develop plans in individual scenarios, test across scenarios (Bangladesh)

Draft plan Test plan in scenarios

Develop scenarios

Robust plan

Develop scenarios

ScenariosInspire plan elements

Test elements across scenarios

Robust plan

• In Cambodia, the Southeast Asia scenarios process has resulted in the inclusion of scenarios methods and Climate Smart Agriculture in the Climate Change Priorities Action Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, which was finalized and signed in 2014

• In Bangladesh, down-scaled South Asia scenarios have been used with the Bangladesh Planning Commission together with local partner ICCCAD to develop the 7th 5 Year Plan for the government of Bangladesh; and will now be used to formulate the NAP as well

• In Ghana, multi-level policy proposals between national, regional, district and local stakeholders have been developed in a process led by the CCAFS SIA team. These proposals were tested against the downscaled WA scenarios and are being implemented. Similar processes are planned for Burkina Faso and Niger. The scenarios process has also facilitated CCAFS guidance of ECOWAS

From scenarios to national policy outcomes

• In Honduras, scenarios have been used with Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock to guide their Climate Change adaptation policy – directly writing a new version of the policy in the context of the scenarios.

• In Peru, the PLANGRACC will be reviewed and developed with the plan’s authors in the context of LAM scenarios.

• In three processes in East Africa, Southeast Asia and the Andes, multiple national policy proposals per region, based on map versions of the scenarios were developed in workshops with UNEP WCMC, the implementation of which is currently being supported.

• In Vietnam, the scenarios were used to develop and test FAO-led investment proposals

From scenarios to national policy outcomes

Cooperation with global partners

• FAO and UNEP WCMC collaborations as per previous slide• The CCAFS scenarios officer is guiding a global IFAD scenarios process on the

future of smallholders to guide the IFAD strategic framework• CCAFS has collaborated with WRI on scenario-based flood risk and water stress

maps for policy guidance in Central America through a policy workshop.• A global report on extreme events, food security and vulnerable groups has

been developed by Oxford/CCAFS scenarios team for Oxfam’s global food and climate justice campaigning.

• The CCAFS scenarios officer is providing methodological advice and reviewing of the scenarios/foresight processes in the CARIAA consortia.

• CCAFS is providing support to WWF in Southeast Asia for their work with ADB on natural capital investment, and will support capacity building on scenario-guided investment planning

Activities 2015 and beyond

• Guiding all national/regional policies and investments in the case studies to finalization; or support implementation of finalized plans when scenario planning is involved.

• Supporting global partners in their scenario-guided priority setting and policy engagement

• Due to widespread demand from decision-makers, the CCAFS scenarios project aims for a training program for policy staff across sectors, with both a physical and on-line dimension.

• A synthesis of the scenarios results across all regions will be written up as a high-impact journal article and policy brief in 2015.