Workshop on Climate Change Projections, Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation for Third National Communication - MoEFCC

28-29 October 2015

Regional Climate Downscaling over South Asia-

CORDEX South Asia

R. Krishnan

(Team: J. Sanjay, M.Mujumdar,T.P. Sabin, Sandip Ingle, J.V.Revadekar,M.V.S. Ramarao, P. Priya, Madhura Ranade, B.Singh, V.Hamza, K.P.Sooraj , M.Joshi)

Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

Source: Giorgi, ICTP

•  Dynamical downscaling uses a limited area, high-resolution model

(a regional climate model, or RCM) driven by boundary conditions

from a GCM to derive smaller-scale information

• Lateral Boundary condition variables:

– Wind – Temperature – Water vapour – Surface pressure

Lower boundary condition variables:

- SST - Land Use & Land cover

IPCC AR5: • Regional downscaling methods are used to provide climate information at the smaller scales needed for many climate impact studies, and there is high confidence that downscaling adds value both in regions with highly variable topography and for various small-scale phenomena.

• Regional models necessarily inherit biases from the global models used to provide boundary conditions.

• Furthermore, the ability to systematically evaluate regional climate models, and statistical downscaling schemes, is hampered because coordinated intercomparison studies are still emerging.

• However, several studies have demonstrated that added value arises from higher resolution of stationary features like topography and coastlines, and from improved representation of small-scale processes like convective precipitation.

WG1 Ch.9

SouthAsia

CORDEX South Asia Co-ordination

• Development of multi-model ensemble projections of high resolution (50km) regional climate change scenarios for South Asia

•  Generation of regional climate projections at CCCR-IITM

•  RegCM4 regional climate model

•  LMDZ variable grid global climate model

•  Co-ordination with partner institutions for multi-model ensemble projections – SMHI, IAES, CSC, CSIRO, ICTP…

•  Development of an Earth System Grid (ESG) node at CCCR-IITM for CORDEX South Asia

•  Archival, Management, Retrieval, Dissemination of CORDEX South Asia data

•  Evaluation of regional climate projections over South Asia •  to provide relevant and reliable regional climate change information for

effective harnessing of science-based climate information by Vulnerability, Impact & Adaptation (VIA) community

•  Development of regional capacity for assessment of regional climate change

Driving CMIP5 AOGCM

Historical 1950-2005 (56y;4.6TB)

RCP8.5 2006-2100

(95yr;7.7TB)

RCP2.6 2006-2100

(95yr;7.7TB)

RCP4.5 2006-2100

(95yr;7.7TB) GFDL-ESM2M Completed Completed Completed

CNRM-CM5 Completed Completed Completed CSIRO-Mk3.6 Completed Completed Completed HadGEM2-ES Completed Completed Completed

CanESM2 Completed Completed Completed IPSL-CM5A-LR MPI-ESM-MR

EC-Earth

IITM-RegCM4 CORDEX South Asia 50km Matrix

•  HPC Resources on IITM Aaditya:

•  Configuration: v4.4.5; 256 X 170 X 18L grids; Dt=60s

•  Performance: ~4yr integration/day with 576 cores (ie. on 36 nodes)

•  Disk Storage: ~76GB/year model output.

Thanks to ICTP: Graziano Giuliani & Filippo Giorgi

Updated 24/10/2015

Courtesy: J. Sanjay, CCCR, IITM

CORDEX South Asia Experiments with IITM-RegCM4 50km

•  HPC Resources on IITM Aaditya: •  Configuration: v4.4.5; 256 X 170 X 18L grids; Dt=60s •  Performance: ~4yr integration/day with 576 cores (ie.on 36 nodes)

•  Disk Storage: ~76GB/year model output

•  Completed CMIP5 Downscaling of Historical(56y;1950-2005),

RCP8.5(95y;2006-2100), RCP4.5(95y;2006-2100)

•  Driven with 5 CMIP5 AOGCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6,

HadGEM2-ES & CanESM2 •  Total simulation period: 1230 years

•  Total Disk Storage: ~100 TB

•  Model outputs are being post processed &

extracted for publishing on the

CCCR-IITM ESGF data node

http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/globaldata/

•  CORDEX South Asia data (50km) is available on the CCCR-IITM Climate Data Portal (non-ESG): http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/cordex/files/downloads.jsp

Thanks to: S. Ingle M. Mujumdar

http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/cordex/files/downloads.jsp

The biases in simulated annual mean precipitation (mm d-1) for 1990-2004 against the CRU data

Model Label

Model Name & Version Driving CMIP5 AOGCM

H1 COSMO CLM MPI-ESM-LR

H2 ICTP RegCMv4.1 GFDL-ESM2M

H3 SMHI RCAv4 EC-EARTH

H4 IPSL LMDZv4 IPSL-CM5A-LR

H5 ICTP RegCMv4.1 LMDZ4

Ø  The individual RCM bias vary from dry to wet over central India in the historical simulations: H1 (Fig. a) to H4 (Fig. d)

Ø  The spatial distribution of the bias is

similar for the two simulations H2 (Fig.b) & H5 (Fig.e) with the ICTP RegCM RCM driven with different global models (LMDZ4 & GFDL-ESM2M)

(f)HM

ICRC CORDEX 2013 (http://cordex2013.wcrp-climate.org/posters/P3_27_Sanjay.pdf)

CORDEX South Asia RCM historical simulations driven with CMIP5 AOGCMs

Spatial pattern correlations and Standardized deviations of the simulated annual mean precipitation and surface air temperature climatology (1990-2004) with respect to the observed (CRU) data over the South Asia land region (60oE-100oE; 5oN-35oN)

10 CMIP5 AOGCMs (C1-C10; green triangles), 6 RCMs driven with ERAI (E1-E6; blue squares), 5 RCMs driven with CMIP5 (H1-H5; red circles). The CM, EM, HM and EI denote their ensemble means and ERAI respectively.

Sanjay et al. (http://cordex2013.wcrp-climate.org/posters/P3_27_Sanjay.pdf)

Precipitation Surface Air Temperature

CORDEX RCP4.5 future projected changes averaged over land grid points in South Asia (60oE-100oE,5oN-35oN). Changes are relative to 1976-2005.

Sanjay et al. under revision

Thanks to: Sandip Ingle (CCCR, IITM) Prashanth Dwarakanath (NSC, SMHI) Nikulin Grigory (SMHI)

Development of end-to-end (climate to end-users) projects

•  Initiated State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) •  A group of experts identified to work on all the states for a

uniformly co-ordinated SAPCC •  Dr. Mrs. Ashwini Kulkarni, IITM, Pune – CORDEX data and

analysis •  Prof. Vimal Mishra, IIT, Gandhinagar – Hydrology

•  Prof. Subimal Ghosh, IIT, Mumbai – Statistical downscaling

•  Prof. Subhakar Karmakar, IIT, Mumbai – Vulnerability Analysis

Publica/onsrelevanttoCORDEXSouthAsia

TPSabin,RKrishnan,JGha1as,SDenvil,JLDufresne,FHourdin,P.Terray(2013):High-resoluHonsimulaHonoftheSouthAsianmonsoonusingavariableresoluHonglobalclimatemodel.ClimDyn.41(1),173-194

P.Priya,M.Mujumdar,T.P.Sabin,P.Terray,R.Krishnan(2015):ImpactsofIndo-PacificSeaSurfaceTemperatureAnomaliesontheSummerMonsoonCirculaHonandHeavyPrecipitaHonoverNorthwestIndia–PakistanRegionduring2010.J.Climate,28,3714–3730.

M.V.S.Ramarao,R.Krishnan,J.Sanjay,TPSabin(2015):Understandingland-surfaceresponsetochangingSouthAsianmonsooninawarmingclimate.EarthSystemDynamics.DOI:10.5194/esdd-6-943-2015

R.Krishnan,TPSabin,RVellore,MMujumdar,JSanjay,BNGoswami,FHourdin,JLDufresne,P.Terray(2015):DecipheringthedesiccaHontrendoftheSouthAsianmonsoonhydroclimateinawarmingworld.ClimateDynamics,DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5

V.Mishra,D.Kumar,A.R.Ganguly,J.Sanjay,M.Mujumdar,R.KrishnanandR.D.Shah(2014):ReliabilityofregionalandglobalmodelstosimulateprecipitaHonextremesoverIndia.J.Geophy.Res(Atmos),119(15),9301-9323

V.Mishra(2015):ClimaHcuncertaintyinHimalayanwatertowers.J.Geophy.Res(Atmos),DOI:10.1002/2014JD022650

LodhA.,R.Raghava,K.Singh,S.Kumar(2014):ClimatologyofatmosphericflowandlandsurfacefieldsofIndianmonsooncapturedinhighresoluHonglobalandregionalclimatemodel.J.EarthSci.ClimateChange,h1p://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.S11-007

S.Ghimire,A.Choudhary,APDimri(2015):AssessmentofperformanceofCORDEXSouthAsiaexperimentsformonsoonalprecipitaHonovertheHimalayanregionduringpresentclimate.Part1.ClimateDynamics,DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2747-2

Thanks for your attention

ThoughtsonCORDEXfutureplans(Krishnan)

•  CORDEXregionalgroupsarecurrentlydiscussingplansforthenextfewyears;theimmediateplanistohaveregionalsimulaHonswithboundarycondiHonsfromCMIP5

•  ThereisapushfortheCORDEXgroupstomovetoahigherresoluHon,either25kmor12.5km.SomegroupsincludingSAsia&SEAsiafeelthatsimulaHonsat12.5kmwillbechallengingintermsofcomputerresources.

•  ForSouthAsia,we(IITM)plantodoafewsimulaHonsat25km.TheseissuesaresHllbeingdiscussedamongtheCORDEXgroups

•  InternaHonalProjectOfficeforCORDEXishostedatSMHI,Sweden(seethewebsite:h1o://www.cordex.org/

•  SeealsoPDF