region wise market share across oems - spark capitalmailers.sparkcapital.in/uploads/mukesh/region...

Region wise market share across OEMs

BSE Auto vs. Sensex

Performance (%)

1m 3m 12m

Sensex -1.2% -7.2% -17.7%

BSE Auto -0.9% -11.9% -16.7%

Market data

BSE SENSEX 24243

Nifty 7369

BSE Auto 16596

Update

Date 3rd Mar 2016

MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041

RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),

Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset

Some obvious and some not-so-obvious trends in region wise market share

While overall market share trends are largely known, we have herein examined how region wise market share trends

have played out in the past few years

Motorcycles: Notable decline in contribution of South Zone to overall volumes; while HMSI and Yamaha dented the

share of Bajaj, HMCL has largely managed to hold its own: Share of the South Zone in overall volumes declined 3ppt to

22% over FY11-9mFY16, offset by an increase in the contribution of the North and the East. HMSI (led by the West and South

Zones) and other OEMs including Yamaha (led by the South Zone) have been the biggest gainers of share increasing from 7%

to 14% and 4% to 9%, respectively over FY11-9mFY16. Bajaj lost a whopping 8ppt share (led by the West and the North)

during the period and stood at 18% for 9mFY16. While HMCL maintained share in the North and the East zones, due to relative

weak showing in the other zones, its overall market share reduced from 56% to 53% over FY11-9mFY16.

Scooters: While HMSI continues to the undisputed leader by market share, HMCL is putting up a good fight aided by

new launches in 3QFY16; TVS, counter-intuitively , is turning into a ‘Northern major‘ with appreciable share gains in

the region: Share of the West in overall scooter volumes declined 7ppt to 34% over FY11-9mFY16, which was offset by an

increase in the contribution of the North and the East Zones. While HMSI has gained significant pan-India market share,

increasing from 43% to 57% over FY11-9mFY16, TVS’s share has reduced from 22% to 16% over this period, TVS has lost

market share across zones except the North Zone. HMCL has maintained its share during this period at ~15%.

Post new scooter launches in 3QFY16, HMCL has gained significant market share across zones, led by the West and the North.

Its share for 3QFY16 stood at 20% against 15% for 9mFY16.

MHCV-Goods: AL on course to establish itself as a truly pan-India player characterized by well-rounded market share

gains: Share of the North Zone in the overall market has steadily increased by 4ppt over FY11- 9mFY16, while the share of the

South reduced by 2ppt. Ashok Leyland (AL) has gained significant share from Tata Motors (TTMT), (mkt. share of 24% in FY11

to 30% in 9mFY16), with intensified mgmt. focus on marketing efforts and enhancing the dealer network. AL has gained share,

not just in its traditional strong-hold – the South Zone, but across zones, indicating robust quality of growth. Conversely, TTMT

has lost market share across zones, importantly in the North and West Zones.

PVs: MSIL and Hyundai steadily extend market share gains; Honda sustains its sizeable improvement in share since

FY14; TTMT the biggest loser of market share: MSIL and Hyundai, the major players in the market have marginally improved

their share across zones, increasing the overall share to 53% and to 21% respectively, for 9mFY16. Honda too has seen an

increase in share from 3% to 9% from FY11-9mFY16, led by the North and South while TTMT lost share across zones,

reducing from 13% to 8%.. In UVs, M&M lost significant share reducing from 53% to 37% over FY11 to 9mFY16, while MSIL

increased share from 2% to 15%.

Stock calls: We believe that the: impact of the infra cess imposed vide the Budget would not have a material impact on

volumes of MSIL with higher proportion of petrol vehicles (1% cess) in its portfolio however, it could have an impact on M&M’s

due to more proportion of diesel vehicles in its portfolio (2.5% cess). We believe that recent appreciation of the yen could have

a negative impact on the margin of MSIL, which would be partially offset by appreciation of the USD and price hikes announced

(net impact on margin ~100bps). Retain BUY on MSIL (TP of Rs. 4,290) and revise rating on M&M to ADD with TP of 1,340.

Remain positive on TTMT (Buy; TP of Rs. 490) backed by expectations strong JLR volumes; retain ADD on AL with TP of Rs.

95, as we believe that the positives of share gain and volume growth are factored in the CMP.

Remain positive on HMCL, backed by the growth in scooter volumes and expectations of rural growth(Rating BUY; TP of Rs.

3,000), maintain our calls on TVS (SELL; TP of Rs. 215) and on Bajaj Auto (ADD: TP of Rs. 2,620)

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

BSE Auto Sensex

B


Motorcycles


HMSI and others, including Yamaha eat particularly into Bajaj’s market share; HMCL too suffers

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

South zone witnesses a sharp decline in share of volumes, North and East Zone gain


North and West Zones are the biggest markets; HMCL leads the segment by a significant majority; Bajaj losing out to HMSI

25% 24% 24% 26% 27% 27%

16% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18%

34% 35% 35% 35% 33% 33%

25% 27% 26% 23% 23% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone

26% 26% 25% 20% 17% 18%

56% 57% 53%52% 53% 53%

7% 8% 12%16% 16% 14%

7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 7%

4% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others

Motorcycles


HMCL continues to be strong in the North; HMSI, while growing in North, posing a greater challenge to HMCL in West


Maharashtra Gujarat

Baja

j

Rajasthan M.P.

HM

CL

HM

SI

29%

18%

15%

17%

19%

16%

13%

13%

26%

21%

19%

20%

26%

16%

12%

14%

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

50%

46%

45%

43%

68%

62%

63%

65%

57%

51%

52%

52%

60%

56%

59%

56%

11%

26%

28%

26%

4%

10%

11%

11%

5%

15%

17%

15%

10%

21%

22%

22%

25% 24% 22% 18% 15% 16%

58% 60% 57%54% 54% 54%

8% 8% 13%18% 20% 19%

6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

3% 3% 3% 5% 6% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

Baja

jH

MC

LH

MS

IFY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

U.P. Haryana

27%

23%

18%

19%

28%

24%

22%

26%

60%

59%

59%

57%

61%

54%

56%

53%

4%

10%

10%

10%

3%

9%

10%

9%

31% 30% 30% 25% 22% 22%

55% 56% 54%53% 54% 54%

4% 5% 7%9% 10% 9%

6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8%

4% 4% 4% 6% 6% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



West Zone : HMSI is growing in strength at its ‘home-ground’ at the expense of primarily Bajaj. HMCL too falters, but maintains a significant lead

North Zone : HMSI’s growth has had little impact on HMCL which consolidates its dominance in the North; Bajaj the biggest loser

Motorcycles


HMCL loses market share in the South, while sustaining leadership in the East


A.P. Tamil Nadu

Baja

j

Karnataka

HM

CL

HM

SI

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

23%

15%

13%

17%

20%

21%

17%

23%

30%

23%

20%

23%

55%

51%

52%

52%

47%

43%

39%

41%

49%

44%

44%

43%

10%

22%

21%

17%

10%

15%

20%

11%

8%

18%

19%

15%

Baja

jH

MC

LH

MS

IFY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

WB. Jharkhand

24% 25% 24% 20% 17% 20%

50% 49% 46%44% 45% 43%

10% 10% 16%19% 20% 16%

10% 9% 7%6% 6% 6%

6% 7% 7% 11% 12% 14%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



36%

19%

16%

14%

17%

12%

11%

12%

20%

11%

10%

10%

22%

14%

12%

11%

43%

52%

54%

53%

67%

63%

62%

63%

65%

65%

63%

63%

63%

64%

67%

67%

10%

15%

14%

13%

8%

17%

18%

14%

5%

16%

18%

15%

5%

16%

18%

15%

24% 22% 21% 16% 14% 13%

60% 61% 59%57% 59% 60%

6% 8% 11%16% 14% 11%

6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 8%

4% 5% 4% 6% 7% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



South Zone : TVS and HMCL cede ground to HMSI and others (Suzuki); Bajaj pulls back share from HMSI and HMCL in 9mFY16

East Zone : HMCL stands its ground; HMSI significantly eats away at Bajaj’s share

Motorcycles

Orissa. Bihar


State FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16

U.P. 13% 13% 13% 14% 16% 15%

Maharashtra 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10%

Andhra Pradesh 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%

Rajasthan 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Madhya Pradesh 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

Tamil Nadu 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6%

Karnataka 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

Gujarat 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6%

Bihar 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%

West Bengal 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5%

Punjab 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4%

Orissa 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Haryana 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Jharkhand 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%

Chattisgarh 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%

Others 11% 9% 11% 9% 8% 9%

The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states

Motorcycles


Bajaj FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 29% 29% 30% 32% 35% 33%

East 15% 12% 13% 13% 14% 13%

West 33% 33% 32% 31% 28% 29%

South 23% 26% 26% 24% 23% 25%

Region mix of OEM volumes

HMCL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 25% 24% 24% 26% 27% 28%

East 17% 15% 16% 17% 19% 21%

West 36% 37% 37% 37% 34% 34%

South 23% 24% 23% 20% 20% 18%

HMSI FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 14% 15% 13% 15% 16% 17%

East 14% 14% 14% 16% 14% 15%

West 37% 36% 37% 41% 41% 44%

South 35% 35% 36% 28% 29% 24%

TVS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 20% 21% 22% 27% 31% 32%

East 14% 12% 13% 16% 17% 22%

West 28% 28% 33% 31% 29% 26%

South 38% 40% 32% 26% 24% 20%

Motorcycles


Trends in market share across major states


State

Share in

total vol.

(9mFY16)

Bajaj HMCL HMSI TVS Others

FY11 FY14 H1FY159m

FY16FY11 FY14 H1FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

U.P. 15% 27% 23% 18% 19% 60% 59% 59% 57% 4% 10% 10% 10% 7% 5% 9% 10% 2% 3% 3% 4%

A.P 8% 23% 15% 13% 17% 55% 51% 52% 52% 10% 22% 21% 17% 8% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 8% 9%

Mah. 10% 29% 18% 15% 17% 50% 46% 45% 43% 11% 26% 28% 26% 5% 3% 3% 3% 5% 8% 9% 11%

Raj. 8% 19% 16% 13% 13% 68% 62% 63% 65% 4% 10% 11% 11% 8% 8% 9% 6% 2% 4% 4% 4%

Bihar 5% 22% 14% 12% 11% 63% 64% 67% 67% 5% 12% 11% 9% 7% 5% 6% 8% 3% 4% 4% 5%

M.P 6% 26% 21% 19% 20% 57% 51% 52% 52% 5% 15% 17% 15% 10% 9% 10% 10% 2% 4% 3% 4%

W.B. 5% 36% 19% 16% 14% 43% 52% 54% 53% 10% 15% 14% 13% 6% 8% 9% 12% 5% 7% 7% 8%

T.N. 6% 20% 21% 17% 23% 47% 43% 39% 41% 10% 15% 20% 11% 17% 9% 10% 9% 7% 12% 14% 17%

Kar. 6% 30% 23% 20% 23% 49% 44% 44% 43% 8% 18% 19% 15% 8% 6% 6% 7% 5% 10% 11% 13%

Gujarat 6% 26% 16% 12% 14% 60% 56% 59% 56% 10% 21% 22% 22% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7%

Orissa 3% 17% 12% 11% 12% 67% 63% 62% 63% 8% 17% 18% 14% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6%

Haryana 3% 28% 24% 22% 26% 61% 54% 56% 53% 3% 9% 10% 9% 5% 6% 6% 6% 3% 7% 7% 7%

Jkhand. 2% 20% 11% 10% 10% 65% 65% 63% 63% 5% 16% 18% 15% 6% 4% 5% 6% 3% 3% 4% 5%

Motorcycles


Scooters


HMSI, at the numero uno position, has been steadily increasing share backed by new scooter launches, at the cost of TVS and Others (Suzuki)


North and East Zone witness an increased contribution to overall scooter volumes; Contribution of the West drops significantly


West and South Zones are the biggest markets; HMSI leads the segment by a significant majority

19% 18% 18% 20% 20% 21%

8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 11%

41% 39% 36% 36% 34% 34%

33% 34% 37% 35% 37% 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



16% 16% 19% 19% 16% 15%

43% 47% 49% 53% 55% 57%

22% 20% 14%13% 16% 16%0% 0% 3%5% 6% 5%

19% 17% 15% 10% 7% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Hero Honda TVS Yamaha Others

Scooters


HMSI leads by a distance in the West and South zones

20% 22% 21% 20% 16% 14%

41%47% 51% 57% 60% 63%

19%14% 10%

10% 14% 13%

20% 17% 17% 11% 8% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




HM

CL

HM

SI

TV

S

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

22%

20%

14%

14%

17%

16%

15%

16%

17%

23%

22%

20%

14%

22%

16%

19%

36%

54%

59%

59%

42%

62%

64%

63%

56%

58%

58%

58%

44%

56%

58%

55%

21%

13%

16%

18%

17%

5%

10%

12%

16%

13%

15%

15%

23%

13%

18%

19%

Maharashtra Gujarat Rajasthan M.P.

HM

CL

HM

SI

TV

SFY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

8%

12%

10%

11%

15%

22%

18%

16%

9%

11%

9%

9%

16%

20%

17%

15%

29%

31%

40%

35%

36%

52%

57%

62%

48%

55%

56%

59%

48%

43%

45%

51%

50%

37%

32%

35%

24%

13%

15%

13%

21%

13%

17%

17%

17%

10%

10%

7%

Tamil Nadu A.P. Karnataka Kerala

11% 10% 15% 16% 13% 12%

39% 42%42% 45% 49% 54%

31% 31% 23% 19% 20% 17%0% 0% 4% 9% 10% 8%19% 18% 16% 11% 9% 9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



West Zone: HMSI in its largest zone by volumes, has gained market share from all OEMs without exception; HMCL has lost share only in Mah. amongst major

states

South Zone: No longer TVS’ alley, HMSI has stolen significant market share from TVS and others; HMCL stagnates

Scooters


HMCL loses market share in the North, HMSI sustains leadership in the East

12% 11% 15% 19% 18% 15%

61% 65%65%

65% 62%61%

11% 10% 7%8% 13% 17%

17% 15% 11% 7% 5% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



31% 29% 34% 28% 24% 24%

28% 35%35% 49%

48% 51%

22%19% 13%

11% 14% 12%0% 0% 6%7% 10% 9%19% 16%

11%5% 4% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




HM

CL

HM

SI

TV

S

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

18%

21%

18%

15%

11%

22%

21%

17%

51%

63%

59%

59%

58%

63%

59%

61%

17%

11%

18%

19%

10%

7%

14%

18%

U.P. Punjab

HM

CL

HM

SI

TV

SFY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

W.B. Bihar

27%

28%

24%

25%

30%

34%

29%

24%

32%

45%

47%

49%

28%

44%

46%

52%

27%

17%

17%

14%

22%

13%

14%

12%

North Zone: TVS has made significant inroads in market share; HMCL squanders the advantage of a strong MC presence in the North; HMSI dominates

East Zone : Yamaha has gained appreciable market share in this region, Suzuki has been the biggest loser; while TVS and HMCL have lost significant share

Scooters


State FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16

Maharashtra 17% 17% 15% 15% 13% 14%

Tamil Nadu 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10%

Karnataka 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Gujarat 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%


Kerala 6% 7% 10% 9% 9% 8%

U.P. 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7%

Punjab 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Delhi 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%

Rajasthan 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%


West Bengal 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%

Others 15% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15%

The pan-India market share is dominated by Western and Southern states

Scooters


HMCL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 14% 12% 14% 19% 22% 20%

East 15% 14% 16% 14% 14% 17%

West 49% 53% 40% 38% 34% 36%

South 22% 21% 30% 29% 30% 27%

Region mix of OEM volumes

HMSI FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 26% 25% 24% 24% 22% 22%

East 5% 6% 6% 9% 8% 10%

West 39% 39% 37% 38% 37% 35%

South 30% 30% 32% 29% 33% 33%

TVS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 9% 10% 9% 11% 17% 22%

East 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%

West 36% 29% 25% 28% 29% 33%

South 47% 54% 58% 52% 46% 37%

Yamaha FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 0% 0% 15% 8% 8% 11%

East 0% 0% 16% 15% 17% 19%

West 0% 0% 22% 11% 10% 15%

South 0% 0% 47% 66% 65% 54%

Scooters


Trends in market share across major states for Scooter OEMs

State

Share in

total vol.

(9mFY16

)

HMCL HMSI TVS Yamaha Others

FY11 FY14H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

Mah.. 11% 22% 20% 14% 14% 36% 54% 59% 59% 21% 13% 16% 18% - 2% 2% 3% 21% 11% 9% 7%

T.N. 11% 8% 12% 10% 11% 29% 31% 40% 35% 50% 37% 32% 35% - 12% 13% 13% 13% 8% 5% 6%

A.P. 9% 15% 22% 18% 16% 36% 52% 57% 62% 24% 13% 15% 13% - 3% 3% 3% 25% 10% 7% 7%

Kar.. 9% 9% 11% 9% 9% 48% 55% 56% 59% 21% 13% 17% 17% - 5% 6% 5% 22% 16% 12% 11%

Gujarat 9% 17% 16% 15% 16% 42% 62% 64% 63% 17% 5% 10% 12% - 1% 2% 2% 24% 16% 9% 7%

Kerala 9% 16% 20% 17% 15% 48% 43% 45% 51% 17% 10% 10% 7% - 15% 17% 13% 19% 12% 11% 14%

U.P. 7% 18% 21% 18% 15% 51% 63% 59% 59% 17% 11% 18% 19% - 2% 3% 3% 14% 3% 2% 3%

Punjab 5% 11% 22% 21% 17% 58% 63% 59% 61% 10% 7% 14% 18% - 2% 3% 1% 21% 6% 3% 4%

Raj. 4% 17% 23% 22% 20% 56% 58% 58% 58% 16% 13% 15% 15% - 1% 1% 1% 11% 5% 4% 6%

W.B. 4% 27% 28% 24% 25% 32% 45% 47% 49% 27% 17% 17% 14% - 8% 10% 9% 14% 2% 2% 3%

M.P. 3% 14% 22% 16% 19% 44% 56% 58% 55% 23% 13% 18% 19% - 1% 1% 2% 19% 8% 7% 5%

Source: Industry, SIAM, Spark Capital Research

Scooters


Trends in market share across major states for Scooter OEMs

State

Share in

total vol.

(9mFY16)

HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others

1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

Mah. 11% 11% 11% 18% 63% 60% 55% 3% 4% 2% 15% 19% 18% 8% 7% 6%

T.N. 11% 8% 7% 13% 44% 47% 46% 11% 14% 6% 31% 28% 31% 6% 5% 4%

A.P. 9% 8% 8% 11% 72% 69% 67% 2% 2% 2% 13% 16% 15% 5% 5% 4%

Kar.. 9% 8% 5% 14% 61% 60% 56% 5% 7% 3% 15% 17% 19% 12% 12% 9%

Gujarat 9% 13% 13% 21% 65% 66% 59% 2% 3% 2% 11% 12% 12% 9% 7% 6%

Kerala 9% 15% 12% 19% 49% 49% 55% 15% 17% 6% 6% 8% 6% 15% 14% 14%

U.P. 7% 17% 11% 17% 59% 62% 58% 2% 4% 3% 19% 20% 19% 3% 3% 3%

Punjab 5% 14% 16% 23% 65% 62% 54% 1% 1% 0% 17% 17% 19% 4% 4% 4%

Raj. 4% 17% 17% 25% 64% 63% 50% 1% 1% 1% 12% 13% 19% 5% 5% 6%

W.B. 4% 23% 22% 29% 50% 48% 48% 11% 14% 4% 13% 13% 16% 3% 3% 3%

M.P. 3% 18% 12% 24% 58% 61% 49% 1% 2% 2% 16% 20% 20% 6% 5% 5%

Source: Industry, SIAM, Spark Capital Research

Scooters


North Zone Market share : HMCL gains appreciably impacting HMSI West Zone market share: HMCL registers strong gains denting HMSI

East Zone market share: Similar story pans out South Zone: HMCL gains market share primarily from Yamaha

13% 12%19%

64% 63%56%

2% 4% 2%

16% 17% 17%

5% 5% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16


23% 20%29%

51% 52%51%

10% 13% 4%12% 11% 12%4% 4% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



14% 13%21%

63% 62%54%

2% 3% 2%

13% 15% 16%

8% 7% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



11% 9%17%

54% 54%54%

8% 11%4%

17% 17% 18%

10% 9% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



Impact of HMCL’s new scooter launches in 3QFY16 on market share

Scooters


Significant increase in overall market share in 3QFY16 on the back of the new scooter launches by HMCL


Impact of HMCL’s new scooter launches in 3QFY16 on market share

14% 12%20%

58% 58%54%

5% 7% 3%15% 16% 16%

8% 7% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



The Duet and the Maestro Edge, HMCL’s maiden scooter launches post the 110cc Pleasure (revamped-Apr14), contend in the largest, and most

competitive, 90cc – 125 cc scooter segment, where HMSI dominates with a leading market share.

These scooters, introduced in Oct15 and Nov15, had a staggered launch, key markets to start with, followed by a steady roll-out.

Basis our interactions with scooter dealers prior to the launch, lack of new scooter launches was stated as a primary reason behind HMCL losing

market share

Also, the Duet – the first full-metal body, maiden unisex scooter from the Hero stable, enabled HMCL tap a larger population and an important

durability conscious market, which was hitherto unaddressed by HMCL.

Basis a solid reception to both the new launches, HMCL has gained significant market share across zones, primarily from HMSI

Scooters


MHCV - Goods


TTMT has lost 10ppt market share during FY11-9mFY16; AL, in particular, has made significant inroads in market share beginning FY13


24% 21% 24% 23% 26% 30%

66%65% 57% 59% 58%

56%

8% 12%14% 13% 11% 10%

2% 3% 6% 6% 5% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others

Share of the North Zone has increased by 4ppt over FY11-9mFY16, while the South Zone has de-grown 2ppt over the same period


North and West Zones dominate the segment; AL has relentlessly chipped away at TTMT’s share beginning FY13

36% 39% 39% 37% 36% 35%

24% 22% 23% 25% 26% 28%

23% 23% 24% 20% 22% 21%

17% 16% 14% 17% 16% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


West Zone North Zone South Zone East Zone

MHCV-Goods


16% 13% 16% 16% 16% 20%

74% 73% 65% 63% 66% 65%

9% 12%14% 14% 13% 11%

1% 2% 5% 6% 5% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



23% 19% 23% 23% 25% 29%

69%69% 60% 61% 61% 58%

7% 11%13% 12% 10% 10%

1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



Ashok Leyland and VECV have created a considerable incision in Tata’s market share in North and West


Maharashtra Gujarat Rajasthan M.P.

24%

24%

30%

33%

18%

20%

19%

28%

28%

19%

22%

23%

24%

31%

28%

36%

Ash

ok

Le

yla

nd

68%

57%

53%

50%

67%

58%

59%

50%

71%

75%

74%

72%

69%

54%

59%

55%

Tata

Mo

tors

Haryana U.P. Punjab

Ash

ok

Le

yla

nd

29%

23%

23%

10%

10%

12%

16%

14%

12%

16%

18%

21%

Tata

Mo

tors

57%

51%

61%

75%

83%

72%

69%

69%

80%

65%

70%

67%

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

West Zone : Though TTMT continues to lead; AL has gained significant market share in the zone particularly through MP, Gujarat and Maharashtra in 9mFY16

North Zone : AL registered major market share gains in 9mFY16 through Punjab; TTMT leads the zone comfortably

MHCV-Goods


12% 10% 14% 17% 18% 20%

87% 87% 78% 74% 75% 74%

0% 1% 5% 5% 5% 3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



Ashok Leyland maintains dominance in the South, while Tata Motors leads by a distance in the East


61%

48%

60%

68%

35%

28%

28%

37%

43%

36%

40%

52%

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

Ash

ok

Le

yla

nd

28%

27%

21%

19%

49%

45%

44%

39%

44%

38%

37%

32%

Tata

Mo

tors

West Bengal Orissa

Tamil Nadu Karnataka A.P.

Ash

ok

Le

yla

nd

13%

22%

23%

23%

21%

17%

15%

23%

Tata

Mo

tors

84%

73%

73%

72%

79%

74%

75%

71%

45% 40% 37% 36%44%

53%

36%33%

31% 35%32%

28%

13%19% 22% 21% 18%

14%

6% 8% 9% 8% 6% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

South Zone : AL has clear majority in its home ground, gaining share from both VECV and TTMT; across AP, TN and Karnataka

East Zone : AL consistently chipping away at TTMT’s market share, with significant gains in WB and Orissa

MHCV-Goods


Industry FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16

Maharashtra 14% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13%

Haryana 5% 4% 4% 6% 8% 9%

Rajasthan 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 9%

Tamil Nadu 9% 9% 8% 6% 9% 8%

Gujarat 7% 8% 9% 8% 8% 7%

U.P. 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%


West Bengal 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%

Karnataka 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5%

Delhi 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5%


Chattisgarh 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Orissa 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3%

Punjab 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

Jharkhand 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%

Others 13% 13% 14% 13% 10% 10%

The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states

MHCV-Goods


Ashok

LeylandFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 15% 14% 16% 18% 16% 18%

East 8% 7% 8% 13% 11% 10%

West 34% 36% 38% 37% 35% 34%

South 42% 43% 38% 32% 38% 37%

TATA

MotorsFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 27% 25% 26% 27% 30% 32%

East 23% 21% 19% 22% 20% 21%

West 37% 42% 41% 39% 38% 37%

South 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

VECV FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 28% 23% 23% 28% 29% 30%

East 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%

West 32% 37% 35% 34% 32% 36%

South 37% 37% 39% 34% 35% 30%

Region wise sales of major OEMs

MHCV-Goods


Trends in market share in major states (contributing ~75% of overall volumes in 9mFY16) for the last five years

State

Share in

overall

volumes %

(9mFY16)


FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16

Maharashtra 12% 24% 24% 30% 33% 68% 57% 53% 50% 8% 14% 12% 14% 1% 5% 5% 3%

Tamil Nadu 9% 61% 48% 60% 68% 28% 27% 21% 19% 9% 17% 13% 10% 3% 8% 5% 3%

Haryana 11% 29% 23% 23% 10% 57% 51% 61% 75% 13% 19% 13% 12% 0% 6% 4% 3%

Gujarat 7% 18% 20% 19% 28% 67% 58% 59% 50% 13% 18% 18% 18% 1% 4% 4% 4%

Rajasthan 8% 28% 19% 22% 23% 71% 75% 74% 72% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% 3% 2% 1%

U.P. 6% 10% 12% 16% 14% 83% 72% 69% 69% 7% 12% 11% 13% 1% 4% 4% 5%

West Bengal 6% 13% 22% 23% 23% 84% 73% 73% 72% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2%

Karnataka 4% 35% 28% 28% 37% 49% 45% 44% 39% 13% 21% 21% 19% 3% 7% 7% 5%

A.P. 7% 43% 36% 40% 52% 44% 38% 37% 32% 11% 21% 20% 13% 2% 4% 3% 3%

M.P. 4% 24% 31% 28% 36% 69% 54% 59% 55% 6% 10% 9% 8% 1% 5% 3% 2%

Punjab 2% 12% 16% 18% 21% 80% 65% 70% 67% 7% 10% 7% 7% 2% 8% 5% 5%

MHCV-Goods


Passenger Cars


Market share is evenly spread between the North, East and South Zones; Maruti upholds overall lead, Tata biggest loser

3% 3% 4% 7% 8% 9%19% 20% 21%

21% 23% 21%

50% 44%47%

50% 52% 53%

13%14% 7%

6%5% 5%

15%19% 21%

15% 12% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others

31% 31% 32% 32% 30% 30%

10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

31% 31% 29% 29% 30% 30%

27% 28% 29% 29% 29% 29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



West and North remain the largest markets, closely followed by the South; Zone wise share in overall volumes has remained largely stable

While MSIL and Hyundai have marginally grown market shares; Honda has usurped significant market share from TTMT


Passenger cars


While Maruti continues to be head and shoulders above competition, Hyundai is fast chipping away esp. in the West


Maru

tiH

yu

nd

ai

U.P Delhi Haryana Punjab

21%

23%

24%

21%

25%

24%

21%

20%

22%

24%

25%

25%

16%

20%

16%

22%

53%

51%

53%

57%

46%

46%

50%

51%

57%

52%

51%

50%

55%

55%

60%

55%

Maharashtra Gujarat

Maru

tiH

yu

nd

ai

17%

21%

24%

20%

23%

26%

29%

28%

15%

21%

23%

24%

14%

19%

22%

25%

Rajasthan M.P.

3% 3% 4% 8% 9% 10%

21% 23% 23%23% 22% 22%

53% 46%48%

52% 55% 56%

9%10% 5%

3% 3% 3%13% 18% 20% 13% 11% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



4% 3% 5% 8% 8% 10%18% 20% 21%

22% 25% 24%

49% 43%47%

49%50% 52%

15%14% 8%

6%5% 5%

14% 19% 19% 15% 12% 9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



44%

46%

47%

49%

50%

45%

47%

49%

59%

56%

58%

57%

51%

54%

56%

55%

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

North Zone: Honda, in particular, and MSIL have gained market share from TTMT and other OEMs

West Zone: Both Honda and Hyundai have gained share at the expense of Other OEMs and TTMT; while Hyundai has gained market share across major states,

MSIL has gained market share particularly in Mah. and MP

Passenger cars


South is proving to be Maruti’s Achilles’ heel, courtesy inroads made by Honda and Hyundai

1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 6%18% 20% 22% 21% 23% 22%

48% 46%51% 54% 58% 59%

18% 17%9%

7%6% 5%15% 15% 15% 12% 9% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



2% 2% 3% 7% 8% 9%17% 17% 18%

19% 21% 19%

50%43% 44%

46%49% 49%

15%16% 9%

9%6% 8%

16% 22% 25% 19% 15% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Maru

tiH

yu

nd

ai

Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu A.P.

Maru

tiH

yu

nd

ai

14%

19%

19%

15%

19%

19%

23%

21%

15%

18%

21%

18%

20%

19%

22%

21%

62%

59%

60%

62%

47%

39%

43%

42%

41%

43%

43%

43%

46%

41%

47%

46%

17%

22%

26%

24%

15%

19%

21%

23%

47%

51%

53%

55%

41%

45%

48%

55%

West Bengal Orissa

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

FY11

FY14

1HFY15

9mFY16

South Zone: The only zone where MSIL has lost market share, albeit marginally; Honda is the biggest gainer; TTMT disappoints in the South as well

East Zone: MSIL dominates in the smallest geographical segment by size; Honda and Hyundai too have gained market share

Passenger cars


Maruti FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 33% 32% 32% 34% 34% 31%

East 10% 10% 11% 11% 4% 12%

West 30% 30% 29% 29% 24% 30%

South 27% 27% 27% 27% 39% 27%

Geographical mix of OEM volumes

Hyundai FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 35% 35% 35% 34% 29% 30%

East 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

West 31% 31% 29% 30% 33% 33%

South 24% 23% 25% 25% 27% 26%

Honda FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 35% 35% 33% 35% 34% 33%

East 4% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%

West 39% 37% 36% 31% 31% 32%

South 21% 22% 23% 28% 29% 29%

Tata

MotorsFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 22% 23% 20% 17% 19% 19%

East 14% 12% 13% 12% 13% 9%

West 34% 32% 31% 29% 29% 27%

South 30% 33% 36% 42% 39% 45%

Passenger cars



Maharashtra 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13%

Kerala 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8%

Gujarat 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 8%

Karnataka 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%

U.P. 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Delhi 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7%

Tamil Nadu 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7%


Haryana 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%

Rajasthan 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%

Punjab 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%

West Bengal 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%


Others 15% 13% 14% 15% 17% 14%

The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states; with Maharashtra leading the pack

Passenger cars




State

Share in

overall

volumes

%

(9mFY16)


FY11 FY14H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

Maharashtra 13% 5% 9% 10% 12% 17% 21% 24% 20% 44% 46% 47% 49% 17% 7% 6% 7% 16% 17% 13% 12%

Kerala 8% 1% 5% 6% 8% 14% 19% 19% 15% 62% 59% 60% 62% 9% 2% 1% 2% 14% 16% 13% 13%

Gujarat 8% 4% 9% 10% 12% 23% 26% 29% 28% 50% 45% 47% 49% 9% 4% 3% 3% 14% 15% 11% 9%

Karnataka 8% 3% 13% 12% 8% 19% 19% 23% 21% 47% 39% 43% 42% 15% 11% 7% 11% 16% 19% 15% 17%

U.P. 7% 2% 8% 8% 9% 21% 23% 24% 21% 53% 51% 53% 57% 14% 7% 6% 5% 9% 11% 8% 8%

Delhi 7% 6% 14% 14% 14% 25% 24% 21% 20% 46% 46% 50% 51% 6% 1% 2% 3% 17% 15% 14% 12%

Haryana 6% 4% 6% 9% 12% 22% 24% 25% 25% 57% 52% 51% 50% 8% 2% 2% 2% 9% 15% 13% 12%

Tamil Nadu 7% 3% 4% 6% 11% 15% 18% 21% 18% 41% 43% 43% 43% 21% 12% 10% 11% 20% 24% 20% 17%

A.P. 7% 2% 7% 9% 9% 20% 19% 22% 21% 46% 41% 47% 46% 16% 14% 11% 10% 16% 18% 12% 13%

Rajasthan 5% 2% 6% 6% 6% 15% 21% 23% 24% 59% 56% 58% 57% 11% 3% 2% 2% 13% 14% 11% 11%

Punjab 4% 2% 6% 9% 8% 16% 20% 16% 22% 55% 55% 60% 55% 12% 4% 4% 3% 15% 15% 11% 11%

West Bengal 3% 2% 7% 8% 9% 17% 22% 26% 24% 47% 51% 53% 55% 14% 5% 5% 4% 19% 15% 8% 8%

M.P. 3% 2% 5% 5% 6% 14% 19% 22% 25% 51% 54% 56% 55% 22% 10% 8% 6% 12% 13% 9% 8%

Passenger cars


Utility Vehicles


53% 55%44% 41% 37% 37%

14% 14%

14%5%

5% 3%

20% 19%

16%

14%15% 13%

8%10%

7%

13%11% 12%

15%

11% 11% 13%20% 21%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


M&M TTMT Toyota Ford Hyundai MSIL Others

Stable market share across zones; Maruti upholds overall lead, Tata biggest loser of market share

West and North remain the largest markets, closely followed by the South; Zone wise share in overall volumes has remained largely stable

Many contenders now to what was once M&M’s sold domain – MSIL and new entrants make a meaningful impression; TTMT loses domain share


26% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29%

16% 16% 12% 13% 12% 13%

33% 33%34% 34% 33% 34%

25% 24% 27% 24% 26% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



Utility vehicles


While M&M continues to lead; new entrants have eaten away at market share


North Zone: Ford and Hyundai have cranked up their share aided by new launches at the expense of M&M ,MSIL and Toyota

East Zone: Though similar to trends witnessed in the North, share of MSIL does not erode despite entry of new OEMs

Utility vehicles

51% 55%46% 43% 37% 40%

22% 19%

17%16%

16% 14%

13% 14%

12%

5%5% 4%

10%12% 8%

12%

11%9% 11%

13%

7% 7% 12% 18% 19%10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


M&M Toyota TTMT Ford Hyundai MSIL Others

70% 66% 62% 61% 55% 55%

5%7% 7%

6%7%7%

7%8%

18% 20% 19% 12%10%

6%

6% 7% 6%5%

7% 7%

4% 5% 5% 10% 13% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


M&M Ford Hyundai MSIL TTMT Toyota Others


While MSIL and Hyundai gain appreciably in these zones


West Zone: MSIL registers significant gains in 9mFY16 on the back of its new launches; Hyundai gains appreciably on the back of Creta

South: Like in the West Zone, MSIL and Hyundai gain; M&M loses share in this zone as well

Utility vehicles

54% 56%45% 41% 38% 35%

14%14% 14% 20%

12% 11% 12%

4% 4% 3%

18% 16% 13%

11% 12% 12%

10%7% 8%

6%

15% 15% 15% 22% 23%15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


M&M MSIL TTMT Toyota Hyundai Ford Others

43% 45%33% 29% 26% 28%

16%14%

12%16%

30% 29% 21%18%

20%18%

10%11% 12%

8%14% 12% 16%

4% 4%

2%

13% 13% 14%25% 26%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


M&M MSIL Toyota Hyundai Ford TTMT Others


M&M FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 25.6% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9% 29.3% 30.6%

East 21.1% 19.1% 17.3% 19.8% 17.7% 18.8%

West 33.2% 33.9% 34.1% 34.6% 35.0% 31.9%

South 20.2% 19.4% 20.3% 16.8% 18.0% 18.7%

Geographical mix of OEM volumes

Toyota FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 28.7% 28.7% 29.5% 33.3% 31.4% 30.2%

East 5.0% 5.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.4% 6.5%

West 29.5% 28.5% 29.0% 29.3% 27.8% 29.8%

South 36.9% 37.0% 37.2% 32.7% 35.4% 33.4%

TTMT FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 24.9% 28.6% 22.9% 24.9% 28.1% 31.4%

East 20.8% 23.2% 17.0% 30.9% 25.7% 24.4%

West 29.7% 26.9% 29.0% 27.1% 26.9% 29.7%

South 24.6% 21.3% 31.1% 17.1% 19.3% 14.4%

MSIL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 78.4% 53.7% 23.1% 20.7% 26.6% 23.6%

East 14.8% 22.8% 6.8% 7.6% 7.4% 6.7%

West 5.6% 15.2% 36.5% 42.0% 39.7% 43.7%

South 1.2% 8.3% 33.6% 29.7% 26.2% 26.0%

Utility vehicles



Maharashtra 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14%

U.P. 9% 9% 8% 10% 10% 11%

Gujarat 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 8%

Karnataka 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 7%

Delhi 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 7%


Tamil Nadu 8% 8% 9% 6% 7% 6%

Rajasthan 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6%

Kerala 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5%

Haryana 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%


West Bengal 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Bihar 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3%

Punjab 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%

The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states; with Maharashtra leading the pack

Utility vehicles




State

Share in

overall

volumes

%

(9mFY16)

Hyundai M&M MSIL Toyota Others

FY11 FY14H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

Mah. 14% 0% 0% 1% 10% 45% 31% 29% 25% 0% 20% 19% 26% 25% 14% 15% 15% 29% 34% 37% 24%

U.P. 11% 0% 0% 0% 8% 75% 62% 58% 56% 1% 7% 8% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9% 16% 22% 24% 17%

Gujarat 8% 0% 0% 1% 13% 49% 28% 27% 27% 0% 17% 17% 23% 18% 15% 15% 13% 33% 41% 41% 25%

Karnataka 7% 0% 0% 1% 10% 35% 25% 22% 26% 0% 16% 12% 17% 35% 19% 20% 18% 31% 40% 44% 28%

Delhi 7% 0% 0% 1% 13% 26% 24% 16% 22% 6% 12% 15% 19% 51% 20% 16% 15% 17% 44% 52% 32%

A.P 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 55% 39% 34% 35% 0% 15% 13% 18% 25% 14% 17% 16% 19% 31% 36% 22%

T.N 6% 0% 0% 0% 8% 41% 30% 26% 26% 0% 11% 11% 15% 27% 17% 18% 16% 32% 42% 44% 34%

Rajasthan 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 68% 59% 57% 53% 1% 5% 7% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 21% 27% 27% 19%

Kerala 5% 0% 0% 0% 11% 42% 22% 21% 24% 0% 15% 13% 13% 35% 23% 25% 23% 23% 41% 40% 30%

Haryana 5% 0% 0% 1% 18% 54% 39% 33% 32% 15% 7% 11% 12% 7% 20% 22% 21% 24% 33% 34% 17%

M.P 4% 0% 0% 0% 7% 64% 60% 57% 51% 1% 5% 6% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7% 29% 29% 31% 26%

W.B> 3% 0% 0% 0% 8% 52% 42% 41% 42% 0% 12% 14% 13% 14% 6% 8% 7% 34% 40% 37% 31%

Bihar 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 81% 79% 71% 74% 0% 3% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 5% 17% 16% 22% 15%

Punjab 3% 0% 0% 0% 17% 42% 28% 24% 31% 2% 12% 12% 11% 31% 27% 27% 23% 26% 32% 37% 18%

Utility vehicles

Maruti Suzuki and M&M

MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041

RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),

Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset

Key estimate revision

FY17E FY18E

Old New Change Old New Change

Revenue 6,93,744 6,76,455 -2.5% 7,62,453 7,65,810 0.4%

EBITDA 1,09,432 1,00,118 -8.5% 1,20,505 1,13,564 -5.8%

Margin (%) 15.8% 14.8% -100 bps 15.8% 14.8% -100bps

PAT 68,841 61,763 -10.3% 82,545 74,572 -9.7%

PAT Margin 9.9% 9.1% -80 bps 10.8% 9.7% -100 bps

EPS 227.9 204.5 -10.3% 273.3 246.9 -9.7%

All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs.

Volume estimates FY16E FY17E FY18E

Volume YoY % Volume YoY % Volume YoY %

Alto, Wagon R 4,29,704 2% 4,44,985 4% 4,69,006 5%

Swift, Celerio, Ritz/ Ignis, Dzire 5,34,642 3% 5,61,648 5% 6,22,515 11%

Ciaz 53,591 60% 58,950 10% 66,024 12%

Baleno 50,822 - 1,27,055 150% 1,47,384 16%

Total PCs 10,68,759 10% 11,92,638 12% 13,04,929 9%

Omni, Eeco 1,41,575 10% 1,58,564 12% 1,74,420 10%

Ertiga, S-cross, Vitara Brezza 89,021 32% 1,34,967 52% 1,47,363 9%

LCV - 18,000 - 20,700 15%

Domestic PVs 12,99,355 11% 15,04,169 16% 16,47,412 10%

Exports 1,24,000 2% 1,37,640 11% 1,65,168 20%

Total 14,23,355 10% 16,41,809 15% 18,12,580 10%

Volume Estimates

FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Automotive 4,64,842 488,109 595,545 659,544

% growth -8% 5% 22% 11%

Farm Equipment - tractor segment 236,426 212,269 234,100 262,609

% growth -12% -10% 10% 12%

TOTAL 701,268 700,378 829,645 922,153

% growth -9.0% 0% 18% 11%

SOTP Valuation

Basis

Sep’17PAT/

Market Cap

(Rs. mn)

PE (x)Discount

(%)

Eq Value

(Rs. mn)

Rs. per

share

M&M + MVML Core PAT 41,022 14.5x - 594,821 960

Listed subsidiaries &

holdings

Market Cap

/ book value293,395 20% 234,716 380

1,340

Maruti Suzuki

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M + MVML)

Key estimate revision

FY17E FY18E

Old New Change Old New Change

Revenue 4,62,166 4,41,888 -4.4% 5,22,403 4,98,797 -4.5%

EBITDA 60,764 58,329 -4.0% 69,051 65,841 -4.6%

Margin (%) 13.2% 13.2% 0 bps 13.2% 13.2% 0 bps

PAT 39,772 37,984 -4.5% 46,418 44,060 -5.1%

PAT Margin 8.61% 8.60% -1 bps 8.89% 8.83% -5 bps

EPS 64.6 61.7 -4.5% 75.4 71.5 -5.1%

All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs.

Change in estimates


Financial Summary (Maruti Suzuki)

Abridged Financial Statements (Maruti Suzuki) Key metrics

Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

Profit & Loss Growth ratios

Revenues 4,98,740 5,69,605 6,76,455 7,65,810 Revenues 14.1% 14.2% 18.8% 13.2%

Manufacturing & Other Expenses 4,32,681 4,80,337 5,76,337 6,52,246 EBITDA 29.6% 35.1% 12.2% 13.4%

EBITDA 66,059 89,268 1,00,118 1,13,564 PAT 33.4% 22.6% 35.8% 20.7%

Depreciation 24,703 27,878 30,518 34,043 Margins

EBIT 41,356 61,390 69,600 79,521 EBITDA 13.2% 15.7% 14.8% 14.8%

Net Interest Exp / (inc) 2,060 817 928 928 EBIT 8.3% 10.8% 10.3% 10.4%

Profit Before Tax 48,682 64,304 81,267 98,121 PAT 7.4% 8.0% 9.1% 9.7%

Tax 11,570 18,820 19,504 23,549 Leverage & WC ratios

Adj. Net Profit 37,112 45,485 61,763 74,572 Debt to equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Balance Sheet (Rs. mn) Current ratio (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6

Shareholders Equity 2,37,042 2,69,801 3,13,383 3,66,139 Debtor days (Sales) 8 9 10 10

Loan funds 5,156 5,156 5,156 5,156 Inventory days (COGS) 27 27 27 27

Sources of funds 2,47,008 2,79,767 3,23,349 3,76,105 Creditor Days (COGS) 58 57 57 53

Net block 1,22,593 1,24,715 1,34,197 1,40,154 Performance & turnover ratios

Investments 1,28,140 1,58,140 2,06,140 2,60,140 RoACE 13.1% 16.5% 17.5% 17.3%

Capital WIP 18,828 18,828 18,828 18,828 RoAE 16.6% 17.9% 21.2% 21.9%

Current assets, loans & advances 65,949 74,578 77,753 78,104 Total asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

Current liabilities & provisions 88,502 96,494 1,13,569 1,21,121 Fixed asset turnover (x) 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2

Net Current Assets (22,553) (21,916) (35,816) (43,017)

Application of funds 2,47,009 2,79,767 3,23,349 3,76,105 Current price (Rs.)

Cash Flows (Rs. mn) Shares outstanding (mn) 302 302 302 302

Cash flows from operations 64,106 71,170 93,235 1,04,880 Market capitalisation (Rs. mn) 10,92,019 10,92,019 10,92,019 10,92,019

Capex (32,468) (30,000) (40,000) (40,000) Enterprise value (Rs. mn) 9,75,259 9,44,679 9,06,570 8,62,569

Free Cash Flow 31,638 41,170 53,235 64,880 EV/EBIDTA (x) 14.8 10.6 9.1 7.6

Cash flows from investments (44,999) (60,000) (88,000) (94,000) Adj. Per-share earnings (Rs.) 122.9 150.6 204.5 246.9

Cash flows from financing (19,621) (9,090) (12,726) (18,180) Price-earnings multiple (x) 29.4 24.0 17.7 14.6

Closing cash 5,783 2,263 (5,227) (12,527) Dividend yield (%) 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%

Valuation metrics

3,615


Financial Summary (M&M + MVML)

Abridged Financial Statements (M&M + MVML) Key metrics

Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Revenues 3,72,236 3,83,445 4,41,888 4,98,797 Revenues -4.1% 3.0% 15.2% 12.9%

Manufacturing & Other Expenses 3,26,203 3,31,609 3,83,558 4,32,956 EBITDA -12.3% 12.6% 12.5% 12.9%

EBITDA 46,033 51,836 58,329 65,841 PAT -18.4% 5.2% 13.2% 16.0%

Depreciation 10,980 11,904 13,332 14,415

EBIT 46,611 47,969 53,837 61,151 EBITDA 12.4% 13.5% 13.2% 13.2%

Interest Exp / (inc) 3,039 2,304 2,138 1,181 EBIT 12.5% 12.5% 12.2% 12.3%

Profit Before Tax 43,572 45,664 51,700 59,970 PAT 8.6% 8.7% 8.6% 8.8%

Tax 9,339 12,114 13,716 15,910 Leverage & WC ratios

Adj. Net Profit 31,883 33,550 37,984 44,060 Debt to equity (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0

Current ratio (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Shareholders Equity 1,98,769 2,22,004 2,49,674 2,83,419 Debtor days (Sales) 24 25 25 25

Loan funds 30,382 35,000 22,000 9,500 Inventory days (COGS) 40 50 45 45

Sources of funds 2,29,152 2,57,004 2,71,674 2,92,919 Creditor Days (COGS) 83 90 85 85

Net block 79,019 87,115 93,783 99,368 Performance & turnover ratios

Investments 1,04,133 1,12,133 1,20,133 1,28,133 RoACE 17.0% 16.0% 15.2% 16.2%

Capital WIP 21,788 26,788 31,788 31,828 RoAE 17.1% 15.9% 16.1% 16.5%

Current assets, loans & advances 1,45,528 1,55,350 1,61,289 1,82,365 Total asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3

Current liabilities & provisions 1,21,316 1,24,381 1,35,319 1,48,774 Fixed asset turnover (x) 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.9

Net Current Assets 24,212 30,969 25,971 33,591 Valuation metrics

Application of funds 2,29,152 2,57,004 2,71,674 2,92,919 Current price (Rs.)

Shares outstanding (mn) 621 621 621 621

Cash flows from operations 57,171 43,009 56,614 62,400 Market capitalisation (Rs. mn) 7,45,885 7,45,885 7,45,885 7,45,885

Capex (20,346) (25,000) (25,000) (20,040) Enterprise value (Rs. mn) 7,55,213 7,57,943 7,45,582 7,21,526

Free cashflow 20,975 10,009 23,614 34,360 EV/EBIDTA (x) 16.4 14.6 12.8 11.0

Cash flows from investments 7,436 (33,000) (33,000) (28,040) Per-share earnings (Rs.) 51.8 54.5 61.7 71.5

Cash flows from financing (22,054) (8,121) (24,253) (22,804) Price-earnings multiple (x) 23.2 22.1 19.5 16.8

Cash at the end of the year 21,053 22,941 22,302 33,859 Dividend yield (%) 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Profit & Loss Growth ratios

Margins

Balance Sheet (Rs. mn)

Cash Flows (Rs. mn)

1,201

Spark Recommendation History

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16

Rs.

Price Target

Maruti Suzuki – 3 Year Price and Rating History

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Mar-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16

Rs.

Price Target

Mahindra & Mahindra – 3 Year Price and Rating History

Report Date Price Target Reco.

29/Jan/16 4,103 4,760 Buy

28/Oct/15 4,497 4,950 Buy

30/Jul/15 4,200 4,770 Buy

28/Apr/15 3,650 4,336 Buy

28/Jan/15 3,688 4,275 Buy

31/Oct/14 3,232 3,427 Add

27/Aug/14 2,781 3,200 Buy

01/Aug/14 2,524 2,250 Sell

28/Apr/14 1,955 1,710 Sell

29/Jan/14 1,680 1,520 Reduce

03/Jan/14 1,768 1,500 Sell

29/Oct/13 1,514 1,392 Reduce

18/Sep/13 1,398 1,325 Reduce


26/Jul/13 1,394 1,460 Add

29/Apr/13 1,674 1,846 Add

08/Apr/13 1,405 1,500 Add

11/Mar/13 1,417 1,590 Add

25/Jan/13 1,599 1,690 Add


15/Feb/16 1,168 1,350 Buy

09/Nov/15 1,257 1,345 Add

10/Aug/15 1,392 1,475 Add

01/Jun/15 1,255 1,420 Buy

16/Feb/15 1,192 1,430 Buy

03/Nov/14 1,298 1,431 Add

12/Aug/14 1,310 1,345 Add


03/Jun/14 1,230 1,243 Reduce

17/Feb/14 903 1,000 Add

03/Jan/14 936 1,000 Add

14/Nov/13 895 960 Add

14/Aug/13 871 983 Add

31/May/13 964 1,041 Add

08/Apr/13 837 935 Add

Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as Investment Advisor. Spark Capital has also an associate company Spark

Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in providing infrastructure advisory services.

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incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report:

Disclosure of Interest Statement Yes/No

Analyst financial interest in the company No

Group/directors ownership of the subject company covered No

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Products or services other than those above

In connection with research report

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